Fangraphs Top 30 Brewer Prospects

[homer]

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/top-30-prospects-milwaukee-brewers/

[OnaBadger58]

Good find, thanks for posting this homer.

 

-What Harrison did in the AFL has really jumped him to another level. Good for him, he deserves it all.

-Marcos Diplan ETA is 2018? I know he was added to the 40 man, but I do not see that happening.

-Gatewood hit is 20/30 and his raw power is 70/80. A future 3TO player.

-Freddy Peralta rated much lower than the community ranking at #12. I don't see how he can be rated lower than Corey Ray.

-Happy to see Yamamoto at #21 (although the write up isn't all that encouraging).

-The Brewers as of now have 5 prospects ranked above average and 10 at average or better (Cubs have 2 players ranked avg.)

-Carmona is at #18. Didn't realize he was a switch hitter. Says if he was draft eligable this year, his tools would put him in the

1st or second round.

[KeithStone53151]

I am a bit curious how he has a 70 grade arm for phillips and 80 grade for Harrison. Also I've been under the impression that both Harrison and Brinson have more speed than ray, yet ray grades higher. Those are a couple more easily measurable issues I have with these rankings. Overall good stuff though, I liked his insights into certain players...especially peralta.

[DoubleSwitch]

I like the combination of depth and high upside in the system. A lot of our top guys have pretty big question marks, but there's so many of them that if only a couple hit you're in pretty good shape.

[NievesNoNO]

Nice! I reeally enjoy Fangraphs content and was waiting to read the prospect write ups. I don't know how many of those guys will pan out but it's sure encouraging to read through the evaluations of a great majority of the guys in the system now.

[homer]

Really looking forward seeing what Hiura can do over a full season.

[DHonks]

Peralta with interesting comments about his release point. When I watch his scouting video, he looks like a mirror image of an early Gallardo

[Jenkins5]

Fangraphs is by far my favorite baseball site and one I trust the most. They have most in depth analysis of the players. Nothing to shocking to me. The Orlando Hudson comp for Erceg kind of made me scratch my head a bit. Seem like totally different players to me. Burns is my favorite arm with Peralta 2nd. Burnes to me is 2017 Chase Anderson as Ive said many times. I just think they match up amazing. May never be an elite guy but could be very effect #3. Peralta's analysis even confirmed my right hand Hader comp even more with the different type of delivery. His velocity is lower than I though though. Their numbers are identical, def when facing guys on their side of the plate. Plus both are just nasty out there. If him and Hader don't make the rotation...they could make a deadly 8 inning Lefty/righty duo like we had with Smith and Jeffress! Guys don't hit them...period! Walks are really their main hope.

 

Love the faith in Ray to. So many are ready to feed him to the wolves. I get he is older and has struggled but talent and tools are their. Many guys with his athletic ability are slower than you'd prefer to develop. I always think of the Michel Bourns of the baseball world who don't figure things out until mid 20's.

 

I have long thought of Grisham as a Michael Brantley and think that is still holding true. Hope he takes a leap in AA with the rest of the guys. As talked about with Diaz. Scouts aren't nearly as turned off by the stats put up in A+ Carolina because it is a terrible hitters league. I wrote a post back in like July breaking down all our prospects as compared to the entire league and our bad stats were the same for nearly every team and player. Think only like 5-7 players who qualified hit over .260 (when I researched last) and Gatewood was one of them.

 

Overall, this is the year we finally see what we have in that awesome wave. It will make or break it prospect stocks in Bioloxi. I have tend to believe that league and park is a very good neutral environment to develop. Its not Florida or Carolina where by June the air is just dense, thick, and heavy causing ball not to travel as well. Plus the way some of the stadiums where built don't help with the way wind blows in of the coast. On the west, altitude and the dry air cause the ball to travel too well.....killing pitchers and inflating hitters. Midwest league is hard to gauge until mid May due to the cold. Once June comes I feel it is a very good league to gauge talent. Biloxi like Huntsville is really best conditions. Takes away the environmental and ballpark effect much more.

 

If Ray, Grisham, Erceg, Diaz, Harrison, Gatewood, Stokes, and/or etc flop this year....They are no better than the hopes we had for Tyrone Taylor. Plus this is last time pitchers have to prove themselves before being fed to the wolves and having to learn to overcome often failure. Blows my mind that Rockies got ride of CS. You'd think you'd want to prepare those young arms and really gauge how they can handle the situation before they come to Coors. Pitching there is different and they just decided it is important for their young arms to learn to adjust to. Their lose is our.....well our lose to lol

[MadThinker88]

Blows my mind that Rockies got ride of CS. You'd think you'd want to prepare those young arms and really gauge how they can handle the situation before they come to Coors. Pitching there is different and they just decided it is important for their young arms to learn to adjust to. Their lose is our.....well our lose to lol

 

Its not like the Rockies didn't give CS a try. I think the Rockies spent nearly 20 years in CS (which is a higher altitude than Coors). On top of that its not like they went somewhere at sea level. Albuquerque (their new AAA affiliate after CS), at an elevation of 5,312 feet, is more comparable to Coors Field's roughly 5,280 feet.

[Jenkins5]

Blows my mind that Rockies got ride of CS. You'd think you'd want to prepare those young arms and really gauge how they can handle the situation before they come to Coors. Pitching there is different and they just decided it is important for their young arms to learn to adjust to. Their lose is our.....well our lose to lol

 

Its not like the Rockies didn't give CS a try. I think the Rockies spent nearly 20 years in CS (which is a higher altitude than Coors). On top of that its not like they went somewhere at sea level. Albuquerque (their new AAA affiliate after CS), at an elevation of 5,312 feet, is more comparable to Coors Field's roughly 5,280 feet.

 

Yeah, more frustrated with us getting stuck there ha death to our pitching prospects. Only positive is it teaches them how to learn from failure & to grind through the mental aspect of it.

[Humans Need Water]

What a terrible article filled with information nobody else has said/reported or is just plain inaccurate. Peralta's pitching coach said he consistently throws 91-95 with his fastball being his most dangerous pitch yet this article says 89-92 (that 2-3mph is a big difference). Harrison with an 80 arm throwing darts from the warning track to home plate with ease - he was clocked at like 92mph on a put out in the AZFL while Phillips (70 arm) threw 2-3 of the highest clocked throws in MLB around 104mph. Unless Harrison is throwing 110mph he doesn't have a 80 arm based on how he ranks Phillips (yes I'm aware Harrison has a great arm it's just inaccurate information - again). When has anyone ever reported Brinson *requires* the retaining of his speed *just* to be an *avergae* defender? Never, because it isn't true. Clark with a 45 arm and Ray 40 OMG where do they come up with this stuff? Etc, Etc, Etc. I get that it's fun to read paragraphs and write-ups on our prospects but if they can't get basic sh!t right then how does one not question it's validity?

 

Nottingham is a future 40 overall with a future 30 hit tool and future 40 defense *but* will be a backup MLB catcher. Ummm, how? Name 1 backup catcher in MLB that is below-below-average defensively while having an even worse hit tool? You can't. Because that person isn't a MLB player. If Crash Davis can't make it to the Show then the player described above has no chance either.

[DoubleSwitch]

Name 1 backup catcher in MLB that is below-below-average defensively while having an even worse hit tool?

 

Stephen Vogt

[homer]

 

Nottingham is a future 40 overall with a future 30 hit tool and future 40 defense *but* will be a backup MLB catcher.

 

potential backup

[homer]

Just noticed this:

 

Matt Eddy’s research at Baseball America reveals that the Mudcats’ home park features the least-favorable run-scoring environment in the Carolina League, a factor that probably had some impact on player performance. It’s likely that several (if not all) of those guys bounce back.

[Outlander]

Name 1 backup catcher in MLB that is below-below-average defensively while having an even worse hit tool?

 

Stephen Vogt

His hit tool is still around a 45. Nottingham at 30 is about a 220 hitter.

[homer]

Also this re: Peralta's fastball:

 

http://milwaukee.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/09/08/freddy-peralta-and-quality-depth/

“Peralta does not have any pitch that will wow anyone, but the whole package is quite intriguing. He is adept at changing both speeds and looks on his 88-92 fastball."

 

https://www.mlb.com/news/brewers-prospect-freddy-peralta-named-all-star/c-236881060

According to Chavarria, Peralta's fastball sits in the 91-95 mph range and is his most dangerous tool.

 

So he throws from 88 - 95

[Humans Need Water]

Name 1 backup catcher in MLB that is below-below-average defensively while having an even worse hit tool?

 

Stephen Vogt

His hit tool is still around a 45. Nottingham at 30 is about a 220 hitter.

That's for already correcting his Vogt nomination. 30 is nowhere near 45 if we agree Vogt is below-average offensively.

 

Still Waiting....

 

Homer, you're right, the article said "potential backup", which still means that given his ratings on him he can be a MLB backup catcher...

[Humans Need Water]

Also this re: Peralta's fastball:

 

http://milwaukee.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/09/08/freddy-peralta-and-quality-depth/

“Peralta does not have any pitch that will wow anyone, but the whole package is quite intriguing. He is adept at changing both speeds and looks on his 88-92 fastball."

 

https://www.mlb.com/news/brewers-prospect-freddy-peralta-named-all-star/c-236881060

According to Chavarria, Peralta's fastball sits in the 91-95 mph range and is his most dangerous tool.

 

So he throws from 88 - 95

lol yeah I'm to go with the guy that works with him daily *knowing* exactly what he throws

[homer]

Also this re: Peralta's fastball:

 

http://milwaukee.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/09/08/freddy-peralta-and-quality-depth/

“Peralta does not have any pitch that will wow anyone, but the whole package is quite intriguing. He is adept at changing both speeds and looks on his 88-92 fastball."

 

https://www.mlb.com/news/brewers-prospect-freddy-peralta-named-all-star/c-236881060

According to Chavarria, Peralta's fastball sits in the 91-95 mph range and is his most dangerous tool.

 

So he throws from 88 - 95

lol yeah I'm to go with the guy that works with him daily *knowing* exactly what he throws

 

 

It's very possible he works in the 89 - 92 range and touches mid 90's occasionally. Also possible his velo was down a tick when that guy from BP scouted him.

[Humans Need Water]

Just saw the comparisons for the first time now. They make sense given the article was terrible.

Hiura = Justin Turner (different players on both sides of the ball)

 

Harrison (55, AS ceiling, can stay in CF) = Craig Monroe (corner OF, 4yr starter split between being average and slightly above average while stealing more than 4 bases *once*. Was garbage next 3yrs then out of baseball. Fangraphs is on their knees right now when it comes to Harrison and this is what the comparison is)

 

Ortiz (55) = Ryan Rowland-Smith (garbage starter who spent 1/3 of his 3.5yr career in the pen)

 

Corbin Burnes (55) = Jason Jennings (high whip, 4 BB9, 6 K9 - wasn't even good away from Coors)

 

Woodruff (50) = David Nied (never heard of him. 2yr starter then out of league, high whip, 4 BB9, 5.5 K9)

 

Peralta (45 with mid-rotation potential, which in and of itself doesn't make sense) = Jon Lester (4x AS - top 4 in CY voting 3x)

 

Dubon (45 with no power, *maybe* a starter) = Alfonso Soriano (1HR shy of doing 40/40 twice - 7x AS)

 

Bickford (40) = Tyler Clippard (2x AS, 7yr dominant run)

 

Kodi (40 and pegged a LOOGY) = CJ Wilson (2x AS as SP after moving from the pen to the rotation)

[Humans Need Water]

Also this re: Peralta's fastball:

 

http://milwaukee.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/09/08/freddy-peralta-and-quality-depth/

“Peralta does not have any pitch that will wow anyone, but the whole package is quite intriguing. He is adept at changing both speeds and looks on his 88-92 fastball."

 

https://www.mlb.com/news/brewers-prospect-freddy-peralta-named-all-star/c-236881060

According to Chavarria, Peralta's fastball sits in the 91-95 mph range and is his most dangerous tool.

 

So he throws from 88 - 95

lol yeah I'm to go with the guy that works with him daily *knowing* exactly what he throws

 

 

It's very possible he works in the 89 - 92 range and touches mid 90's occasionally. Also possible his velo was down a tick when that guy from BP scouted him.

Disagree. The pitching coach said he sits in the 91-95 range so he's not working in the 89-92 range. The pitching coach is with him day in and day out whereas scouts might see him throw 2-3x/season. Could very well be the case the time the BP scout saw him he was 89-92 for whatever reason. But that BP article was written almost *3 months after* the pitching coach interview, not to mention this Fangraphs article came out yesterday so 5 months after the pitching coach article. Wouldn't it be one's job to know what others in the org are saying about the players they're covering so it can be mentioned when informing the public?

[SRB]

Just saw the comparisons for the first time now. They make sense given the article was terrible.

 

I think the comparisons are based on a computerized analysis of their minor league statistics and age or whatever, not something to be taken too seriously.

 

This was a great write up. I find grades and rankings largely meaningless, so it was nice to actually have an explanation for the author's views on each player and his strengths/weaknesses, rather than just throwing out a number and writing some empty platitudes.

[82brewcrew82]

Harrison (55, AS ceiling, can stay in CF) = Craig Monroe (corner OF, 4yr starter split between being average and slightly above average while stealing more than 4 bases *once*. Was garbage next 3yrs then out of baseball. Fangraphs is on their knees right now when it comes to Harrison and this is what the comparison is)

 

It's really not a bad comp at all and you're really not portraying the context correctly. What they are saying is that Harrison has a similar statistical profile as Craig Monroe at (generally) the same point in there careers. So yes, Monroe didn't steel many bases in the major leagues but he did steel 50 once and 40 twice (and over 20 many times) in the minor leagues while hitting a similar amount of HR's. They are not saying that the two have a similar career arch or that they are the same player or even the same style of player, just a similar statistical player profile at the same point in there careers.

 

Same thing with Peralta. His pitching coach says he pitches between 91-95. That does not eliminate the possibility that he sits low 90's while touching 95 on occasion (as Homer mentioned). I don't see that as out of line with what FG reported. Frankly, this article is far from the first to suggest that Peralta sits in the low 90's.

[Humans Need Water]

Just saw the comparisons for the first time now. They make sense given the article was terrible.

 

I think the comparisons are based on a computerized analysis of their minor league statistics and age or whatever, not something to be taken too seriously.

 

This was a great write up. I find grades and rankings largely meaningless, so it was nice to actually have an explanation for the author's views on each player and his strengths/weaknesses, rather than just throwing out a number and writing some empty platitudes.

I agree regarding grades/rankings for the most part. Comparing players is pointless to begin with as everyone's different and there's a lot of variables in play for each player including intangibles, which don't show up on paper. The only plus to this article is the extensive write-ups and effort put into this aspect. But even then there's way too much inaccuracy on basic topics

[Jenkins5]

I never look at ratings, I care more about the reports. From that aspect, I thought per usual, they did great job! No pitcher sits 91-95.... if they did, that would be worry some. It’s like Jungmann coming out where they’d say he is 91-97.... that is a range not sitting. He sits 89-92....max effort/top out 97. No pitcher is bouncing around one day sitting 94-95 then next 91-92, then maybe 92-94 next outing. If so, mechanics & control would be so inconsistent they would pretty much be useless. My guess is he is probably usually low 90s 90-92 starting but can reach back in short outings or bullpens and hit 93-95. I doubt you are getting many innings out of him pumping 93-94.