Chatwood to Cubs - 3 years $38 million

[Warning Track Power]

http://chicago.cbslocal.com/2017/12/07/cubs-sign-tyler-chatwood-3-year-deal/

 

Yikes! That's a ton of money for someone who has great peripherals but hasn't posted the numbers yet. Most of us thought he was a $10 million per year pitcher not $13-$14.

 

MLB Trade Rumors had him as a 3 year $21 million prediction.

[KeithStone53151]

BOOOOOOO!!!!!!!!!!

[patrickgpe]

his road numbers were pretty good last season, probably a good signing for the cubs.

 

 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2017/12/cubs-sign-tyler-chatwood.html?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=facebook

[bill hAll Star]

Ugh.

[pacopete4]

Well either the Cubs will be right with taking this shot or wrong. Either way, I'm glad we didn't pony up $40 million to find out.

[patrickgpe]

his ERA was 2.5 runs less on the road last season, BA 100 points lower. its alot of money but if the brewers did the same thing i wouldn't be upset.

[bill hAll Star]

Ugh. They got a relatively cheap, middle of the rotation starter.

[patrickgpe]

Well either the Cubs will be right with taking this shot or wrong. Either way, I'm glad we didn't pony up $40 million to find out.

Id rather do this than throw money at Arietta or Lynn.

[Madhawk23]

Yeah, this absolutely sucks. I know it's more money than what you'd like to give to a guy that doesn't have numbers that blow you away, but his numbers away from Coors Field would suggest that he's going to be a much better pitcher now that he's out of that environment.

 

And of course Theo makes what appears to be another smart move for the Cubs. Ugh.

[coolhandluke121]

I thought he'd get at least that much to be honest. This is bad news IMO. I don't think he's as good as his road numbers or as bad as his home numbers, but I do think he's going to have some pretty good years in his prime and he has plenty of talent. I wish the Brewers had beaten this offer. I prefer relievers on 1 to 2 year deals, but Chatwood is one of the few guys I would make exceptions for.

[pacopete4]

Well either the Cubs will be right with taking this shot or wrong. Either way, I'm glad we didn't pony up $40 million to find out.

Id rather do this than throw money at Arietta or Lynn.

 

I agree with you there but that's an apples to oranges comparison too. I mean we are talking about giving a guy $40 million that hasn't accomplished much, while at least Lynn and Arrieta have been very good pitchers in the majors. Not advocating the signings at all though.

[StearnsFTW]

Actual amount is $38 million. Not that that's a big deal.

 

Well, that's pretty much my top two targets gone. Yippee.

[pacopete4]

http://www.davidmcelroy.org/wp-content/uploads/2013/08/Chicken-Little-on-CNN.jpg

[homer]

Looking just at last year it appears he was really unlucky at home and really lucky on the road (.350 BABIP at home and .217 on the road). A lot of the other numbers were pretty similar.

[KeithStone53151]

Looking just at last year it appears he was really unlucky at home and really lucky on the road (.350 BABIP at home and .217 on the road). A lot of the other numbers were pretty similar.

 

He also had a big time velocity uptick in a known contract year and in his prime. Maybe that velocity stays, or maybe he isn't working as hard this offseason. He'll probably be a high 3s ERA guy with the Cubs in their pitcher friendly conditions and plus infield defense behind him.

[reillymcshane]

I was interested in Chatwood - but that's a little rich for my blood. Plus the three years is a bit much. I'd rather have done 2 years and an option. But as someone said, I wouldn't have complained if we had done this deal - even if I thought it was an overpay.

 

But it's a good gamble for Chicago. If they add someone else - such as Cobb (or heaven forbid) Ohtani - they've solidified the rotation without costing an arm and a leg.

[nate82]

I think this puts the Cubs out of the running for Arrietta and Lynn. The Cubs still need to get a bullpen piece or two which would put them at their budget limit or very close.

[Austin Tatious]

Bummer. Chatwood was my first choice for starting pitcher acquisition.

 

Regardless, I hope we don't make any panic moves. Stay the course.

[JohnBriggs12]

The thought was the Cubs were in on Cobb because of the Maddon connection. This doesn't preclude their signing Cobb also but interesting that this deal was done first. Brewers could have pushed the price up enough on Cobb.

[KeithStone53151]

I think this puts the Cubs out of the running for Arrietta and Lynn. The Cubs still need to get a bullpen piece or two which would put them at their budget limit or very close.

 

I don't think they were targeting those guys, but I disagree with that. With this signing, and depending on the per year payout, the Cubs will be roughly $140 million payroll for 2018. Plenty of room left under the luxury tax threshold for Arrieta/Lynn plus a closer, bullpen arm, backup catcher and backup CF.

[bill hAll Star]

I think this puts the Cubs out of the running for Arrietta and Lynn. The Cubs still need to get a bullpen piece or two which would put them at their budget limit or very close.

 

I don't think they were targeting those guys, but I disagree with that. With this signing, and depending on the per year payout, the Cubs will be roughly $140 million payroll for 2018. Plenty of room left under the luxury tax threshold for Arrieta/Lynn plus a closer, bullpen arm, backup catcher and backup CF.

 

I agree, though the extent depends on their motives.

 

They've been a ~$170 million team the past few years. Will they still be? Arrieta would put them up near $170 alone.

 

They probably want to be in the Harper/Keuchel/etc. race next year. They probably won't go over the tax threshold this year, but if they sign all of these guys to multiyear deals, they'd have to go over the tax by far to sign Harper and probably remain there for the foreseeable future, increasing their penalty each year. Again, do they want to do that? I don't know.

 

In the end, I agree, though. They are not done. How much more they do depends on motives.

[KeithStone53151]

Aside from his contract year velocity uptick, Chatwood had TJ a couple years ago and is an undersized RH pitcher. Definitely a candidate to either wear down or get injured every season. I feel like the Cubs signed him with the intent of making him the number 5 starter. I think they'll target somebody better by some means, and the most likely route would probably be trading from the MLB roster.

[adambr2]

Too much. Chatwood would have been a nice addition, but too many durability concerns and injury risk for $13M a season.

[nate82]

I think this puts the Cubs out of the running for Arrietta and Lynn. The Cubs still need to get a bullpen piece or two which would put them at their budget limit or very close.

 

I don't think they were targeting those guys, but I disagree with that. With this signing, and depending on the per year payout, the Cubs will be roughly $140 million payroll for 2018. Plenty of room left under the luxury tax threshold for Arrieta/Lynn plus a closer, bullpen arm, backup catcher and backup CF.

 

The Cubs have about $40m left on their budget. That means they have to sign a closer at a maximum of $15m a year, another bullpen piece at about $8m a year and a backup catcher at about $2m a year. That leaves the Cubs about $15m for another starting pitcher and I don't believe that gets them Arrietta or Lynn. It would get them Cobb or any other starter on the market but not Lynn or Arrietta.

[Austin Tatious]

Supposedly the Yankees are all over Cobb. Bidding war would be fatal.

 

I wish we could draft our own TOR's.