2018 Lineup (batting order)

[coolhandluke121]

Any solid analytics on pitcher hitting 8th vs 9th? My initial reaction has always been you increase the odds pitchers spot is up one inning earlier when you get to that 6th inning or so. Could be forced to make a decision one inning earlier and pull the starter. Just seems that scenario would happen often enough.

 

The 8 spot comes up more often with two out and none on more than any other spot in the order, except third.

 

It's worth about ten runs a year to swap them, but that assumes the team uses an optimal lineup otherwise.

 

Yep. Not totally gonna dismiss the concerns, but I think the benefits far outweigh the costs.

 

First off, you should be able to get an extra inning out of your bullpen.

Secondly, this allows you to get your best PH to the plate in more high leverage at-bats.

Thirdly, a lot of teams should be considering pulling starters a little earlier anyway because the third time through the order is much worse than the first two.

Fourthly (is that a word?), this team has the versatility to do the kind of double switches that make going to your bench 1 or 2 innings earlier possible.

Lastly, and most importantly, you will often have more guys on base (and in scoring position with a base-stealer like Villar) when the top of the order hits. That is a huge benefit.

 

A team like the Brewers, with short starters, surplus long relievers, and a versatile bench, should definitely do this. I'm not sure there's been a more perfect team for it in my lifetime. And when your top PH is usually going to be Braun, Thames, or Santana? OMG it's a no-brainer. Can you imagine how many pitcher pa's you could reduce over the course of the season if you carry more long relievers and pull the pitcher before his 2nd or 3rd pa more often? And how many times you would be able to bring Braun or Thames in to PH with at least one man on? Not to mention moving the pitcher's spot in the lineup to whatever makes it less likely to come up for a couple more innings... I really hope this happens.

[FVBrewerFan]

Good points, Cool. I think another negative would be potentially killing a big first inning. 2 or 3 runs in already, base runners and two outs. Now Anderson is hitting instead of Villar/Arcia. So that, along with forcing the SP out an inning earlier would be the downside. What you outlines would be the upside.

 

I guess throw that all together, and I'm fine either way. As with most moves, there's always going to be up/downside.

[coolhandluke121]

Good points, Cool. I think another negative would be potentially killing a big first inning. 2 or 3 runs in already, base runners and two outs. Now Anderson is hitting instead of Villar/Arcia. So that, along with forcing the SP out an inning earlier would be the downside. What you outlines would be the upside.

 

I guess throw that all together, and I'm fine either way. As with most moves, there's always going to be up/downside.

 

There are lots of scenarios in both directions that probably sort of cancel out. You've given some good examples of scenarios where it would be a shame to have a pitcher hit 8th, but there are also lots of scenarios where it would be better. How many innings are killed because the pitcher leads off before the top of the order, for example? I see a lot of that stuff cancelling out.

 

To me it comes down to occasionally pulling a starter a little earlier (which I think the Brewers should do anyway given the make-up of their staff) to get more at-bats with men on base for the top of the order. As long as you have the long relievers to manage that, you're actually getting fewer at-bats from your pitcher by moving them up in the order. The fact that you're always going to have a PH capable of a .900 OPS just makes it slam dunk.

 

I would add that last year Counsell let the starter hit only to pull him in the next inning nearly twice as much as any other manager I've ever seen. It got to the point where I expected it nearly every game. I wonder if he learned anything from that. He surely knows the stats about a starter supposedly "cruising" but then falling apart early in the 3rd time through the order. Will have a PH like Braun, Thames, or Santana, combined with having 8 relievers, be enough to encourage him to deviate from the dogma? I sure hope so. Even a good sac bunt from a pitcher is still an out, and does the opposing team a huge favor compared to bring up a legit masher.

[KeithStone53151]

The lineup today is about what I expect it to be to open the season. The primary difference will be no Thames as we won't have a DH. On a daily basis, you'll basically subtract one of Braun, Santana, Thames and slide everyone else up. On days Braun sits, I imagine Villar/Sogard gets bumped to the 1 or 2 hole with Yelich hitting 3rd.

[brewerfan82]

Interesting lineup today:

 

Thames (1B), Yelich (CF), Braun (LF), Shaw (DH), Santana (RF), Arcia (SS), Pérez (3B), Bandy ©, Sogard (2B), Davies (P)

 

Basically swapping Thames (and his .382 OBP vs. righties) into the leadoff spot for Cain. Could work well against tough righties when they want to give Cain a day off.

[monty57]

"The 8 spot comes up more often with two out and none on more than any other spot in the order, except third."

 

I would imagine that the vast majority of this data is with the pitcher batting 9th. Would that change if the pitcher (by far the worst hitter in any lineup) started batting #8?

[istanbultaye]

I would think that general stat includes AL teams with the DH, and pitchers are PH for regularly in the end of the game anyways, so I would think that changing the pitcher to the 8th spot would not really impact the # of 2 outs, no one on situations that come up for the #8.

[Lathund]

"The 8 spot comes up more often with two out and none on more than any other spot in the order, except third."

 

I would imagine that the vast majority of this data is with the pitcher batting 9th. Would that change if the pitcher (by far the worst hitter in any lineup) started batting #8?

 

Like the previous poster says, I don't think it would make too much of a difference.

 

It's also only part of the reason why batting the pitcher 8th is a net positive. If your #9 hitter gets on base more, that impacts your #1-#2-#3 hitters in that they get more opportunities to drive runners in, like a second leadoff man. That even creates an effect where the worse the pitcher is at hitting, the more you benefit from batting him 8th, whereas you might be better off batting a pitcher who can hit really well 9th instead of 8th. Basically the bigger the difference between the #8 and #9 hitter, the more you benefit from batting the better one 9th. As counter-intuitive as it may seem. (I suspect there's a point where if the pitcher is truly truly awful at the plate, he might be better of 9th. But your average pitcher is better of 8th).

[monty57]

I would think that general stat includes AL teams with the DH, and pitchers are PH for regularly in the end of the game anyways, so I would think that changing the pitcher to the 8th spot would not really impact the # of 2 outs, no one on situations that come up for the #8.

 

Stats from teams using a DH shouldn't even be in the discussion when determining where a pitcher should bat. The pitcher is such a different hitter than anyone else, any AL stats (and NL stats in AL stadiums) should be taken out of the data set if you are trying to find the best batting order for an NL (pitcher hitting) roster.

 

The sample set for teams hitting pitcher #8 is getting bigger, so hopefully someone would do a study of teams hitting pitcher #8 vs teams hitting pitcher #9 before making a determinate as to whether it makes sense. You want the data to be as close to apples-to-apples as you can get.

[coolhandluke121]

"The 8 spot comes up more often with two out and none on more than any other spot in the order, except third."

 

I would imagine that the vast majority of this data is with the pitcher batting 9th. Would that change if the pitcher (by far the worst hitter in any lineup) started batting #8?

 

Like the previous poster says, I don't think it would make too much of a difference.

 

It's also only part of the reason why batting the pitcher 8th is a net positive. If your #9 hitter gets on base more, that impacts your #1-#2-#3 hitters in that they get more opportunities to drive runners in, like a second leadoff man. That even creates an effect where the worse the pitcher is at hitting, the more you benefit from batting him 8th, whereas you might be better off batting a pitcher who can hit really well 9th instead of 8th. Basically the bigger the difference between the #8 and #9 hitter, the more you benefit from batting the better one 9th. As counter-intuitive as it may seem. (I suspect there's a point where if the pitcher is truly truly awful at the plate, he might be better of 9th. But your average pitcher is better of 8th).

 

Yeah, as long as you're not giving pitchers extra ab's (the main issue with moving any inferior hitter up in the lineup), then it's fine. They PH for them anyway, and it would be a pretty rare instance where batting the pitcher 8th instead of 9th means you give him an extra ab. If you'd be ready to PH for him 9th, you're usually going to be willing to do it 8th as well. So the number of ab's is the same, and since your best PH is far better than your 9th hitter anyway, in a way it's actually more ab's for your better hitters, which is the really the most important lineup consideration that all others follow from.

 

I wouldn't say it benefits every lineup to have that extra lead-off guy in the 9th hole though. That's true in many cases, but then you have to consider whether you're failing to get a good batter to the plate when you have your 6 or 7 hitter on base. That's not a good trade-off for all teams, but it is when the strength of your lineup is especially skewed toward the top of the order. The Brewers should have a beastly 1-5, but could have a dramatic drop-off in OBP 6-9 (significantly more dramatic than the average team), so they would be a lineup that has higher potential benefits and fewer drawbacks to batting Sogard or Villar 9th.

[wildcat83]

Opening Day lineups are sometimes released the day before aren't they?

[JosephC]

This offense desperately needs Yelich back. The more and more I see of this offense the more and more it looks like the offense that ended last season. Last year the OBP woes plagued two spots in particular but this year it seems to have spread up and down the lineup (.297 OBP currently ranks 14th in the NL). For every spot that I'm confident will get better (Braun), there is a spot that has me worried (Shaw's OBP was .312 in Boston and was the reason many viewed him as a "second division" type third baseman, and he's off to a .299 OBP start this season). And while they've shown improvement in the strikeout department, the improvement has been pretty minimal (9.7 strikeouts per game in 2017, so far 9.44 strikeouts per game this season). They are averaging 3.5 runs per game, which ranks 12 out of 15 teams. Last year they finished tied for 10th in runs in the NL, so far it's been a slight step backward this season. Hopefully Yelich can give this offense a kick-start when he gets back.

[CrewFanBrewMan69]

"It's early" but as a team we have the 2nd lowest BB% rate in the league and top 10 highest K% in the league. That's not a recipe for success no matter how many HR's we hit.

[Cool Hand Lucroy]

It is odd that for how many talented hitters we have, the offense struggles. Definitely need Yelich back. Perez cannot get this many ABs, and Arcia needs to have a better approach.

 

I hate to say it, and I know it's early. Santana will get his, But I have a sneaking feeling the league correctly evaluated his value. His approach is really bad at times, even for all the hard contact he makes. Going 17 games without a HR while playing most days means you are not getting the value you need. Hope he shows something soon, but he's someone I am worried about even with the usual SSS caveats.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

It is odd that for how many talented hitters we have, the offense struggles. Definitely need Yelich back. Perez cannot get this many ABs, and Arcia needs to have a better approach.

 

I hate to say it, and I know it's early. Santana will get his, But I have a sneaking feeling the league correctly evaluated his value. His approach is really bad at times, even for all the hard contact he makes. Going 17 games without a HR while playing most days means you are not getting the value you need. Hope he shows something soon, but he's someone I am worried about even with the usual SSS caveats.

 

If Santana doesn't pick things up, it is not out of the realm of possibility that he'll be optioned to Colorado Springs (if he even has them remaining). If Santana and Phillips are going to give you similar production, I'd rather have Brett's defense.

[JosephC]

Santana getting sent down shouldn't be a slightest consideration. .338 OBP is one of the best marks on the team and they can't afford to take that out of the lineup. 0.016 ISO could be the biggest fluke number in all of MLB so far this year. There is pop in his bat and odds are that it will show itself soon.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Santana getting sent down shouldn't be a slightest consideration. .338 OBP is one of the best marks on the team and they can't afford to take that out of the lineup. 0.016 ISO could be the biggest fluke number in all of MLB so far this year. There is pop in his bat and odds are that it will show itself soon.

 

Agree to disagree then. But I hope you are right. So far, Santana is supposedly a power bat who isn't providing any power. Since he provides negative value as a defender, isn't much of a threat on the bases, and still strikes out a ton, his power needs to be what keeps him in the lineup.

[adambr2]

.338 OBP is one of the best marks on the team

 

Boy, that was depressing to read.

[xisxisxis]

.338 OBP is one of the best marks on the team

 

Boy, that was depressing to read.

Base runners just clog up the diamond and chicks dig the long ball... Two permanent parts of the Brewers mission statement...

[Eye Black]

With the Brewers heading to Kansas City this week it will be our first chance this season to see the lineup using a DH. Assuming the return of Manny Pina and Orlando Arcia here is a potential lineup with the DH...

 

1. Lorenzo Cain ® CF

2. Christian Yelich (L) RF

3. Ryan Braun ® LF

4. Travis Shaw (L) 3B

5. Eric Thames (L) 1B

6. Jesus Aguilar ® / Domingo Santana ® DH

7. Manny Pina ® C

8. Jonathan Villar ® 2B

9. Orlando Arcia ® SS

[JosephC]

Cain and Yelich have too much RBI potential to use their bats at #1 and #2 in the lineup. If that's where Counsell is going to hit them, then he should be batting the pitcher 8th to try to get more men on base for Cain. I would agree that, to this point, some of the bottom of the order hitters haven't been much better than pitchers, but that won't last the whole season. Is part of this because they feel Braun has to hit third? Complete foolishness if that's the case. Bump Cain to #2, Yelich to #3, Braun/Aguilar to #4 and Shaw to #5. Maybe it's time to just put Villar back in the leadoff spot and just stick with him. As frustrating as he is, I haven't seen anything that makes me think Perez or Sogard will contribute more to the team. Solid two week "audition" for Villar everyday in the leadoff spot and if he can OBP .320, although terrible for a leadoff man, it still might be best for the lineup having his .320 OBP ahead of Cain instead of a pitcher's .140 OBP (current OBP for Brewer pitchers).

[pacopete4]

1. Santana- RF

2. Cain- CF

3. Yelich- LF (L)

4. Braun- 1B

5. Shaw- 3B (L)

6. Pina- C

7. Arcia- SS

8. Pitcher

9. Villar- 2B (S)

 

-DFA Sogard and Bandy.

-Send down Phillips

-Call up Orf (or Dubon if his knee is fine), Bethancourt and Choi.

 

Set it and forget it for about a week and see how it plays out.

[JosephC]

Hernan Perez batting fifth = .267/.290/.300/.590

 

I realize that on many days this roster only goes four hitters deep, but is it necessary to keep trying Perez in the #5 hole? Would it be so ridiculous to try Villar there or even one of the catchers?

 

Ryan Braun batting third = .206/.263/.369/.632

Ryan Braun batting fifth = .371/.405/.657/1.062 (up to 35 at-bats)

 

Well maybe there is the answer to the fifth spot in the lineup? I normally don't put much stock into batting third versus fifth but at the point Braun just seems like a totally worthless bat when hitting #3. He should be moved down in the lineup for the rest of the season IMO.

 

Which leads to the next point.

 

Brewer's slash line from the third spot in the lineup: .223/.299/.414/.712

Even though the bottom of the lineup gets all the crap (which has merit), the third spot in the lineup has been bad. .223 average is third worst in baseball. .299 OBP is third worst. SLG is 9th worst and OPS is 5th worst. Of hitters with more than 1 at-bat out of the #3 spot, Lorenzo Cain has been by far the most productive (.333/.533/.429/.962).

 

We are back to the exact same place we were 12 months ago. The Brewers need a leadoff hitter. Last year Thames got stuck in that role far too often and this year it's been Cain. These guys have too much RBI potential to hit leadoff as much as they do. Maybe time to bite the bullet and just put Villar there for a couple weeks and see how he does? Villar/Yelich/Cain/Shaw/Braun/Thames. At this point, how can it be much worse than living with .223/.299/.414/.712 out of the #3 spot and Perez hitting fifth?

[tmwiese55]

What about Braun at leadoff? I know the OBP and all that isn't good now but hear me out. First, obviously we all see that he's hitting the ball hard and on line drives at about as high of a clip as he has in his career. So, once the luck corrects you'd like to get as much out of it as you can. Second, if/when that luck comes I still think he's going to end up much more of a line drive singles/doubles hitter than the traditional power 3 hole guy of his prime. Kind of like your 'classic' 2nd in the order hitter. Third, as said Cain/Yelich probably need to be down a spot or two to get max value from them and there isn't an obvious leadoff choice so it's a bit of just experimenting and hoping to jump start him. Also, you can then tell him (if you're not already) to be patient and take his walks as much as possible instead of feeling pressure to drive in runs.

[bloena12]

Hernan Perez batting fifth = .267/.290/.300/.590

 

I realize that on many days this roster only goes four hitters deep, but is it necessary to keep trying Perez in the #5 hole? Would it be so ridiculous to try Villar there or even one of the catchers?

 

Ryan Braun batting third = .206/.263/.369/.632

Ryan Braun batting fifth = .371/.405/.657/1.062 (up to 35 at-bats)

 

Well maybe there is the answer to the fifth spot in the lineup? I normally don't put much stock into batting third versus fifth but at the point Braun just seems like a totally worthless bat when hitting #3. He should be moved down in the lineup for the rest of the season IMO.

 

Which leads to the next point.

 

Brewer's slash line from the third spot in the lineup: .223/.299/.414/.712

Even though the bottom of the lineup gets all the crap (which has merit), the third spot in the lineup has been bad. .223 average is third worst in baseball. .299 OBP is third worst. SLG is 9th worst and OPS is 5th worst. Of hitters with more than 1 at-bat out of the #3 spot, Lorenzo Cain has been by far the most productive (.333/.533/.429/.962).

 

We are back to the exact same place we were 12 months ago. The Brewers need a leadoff hitter. Last year Thames got stuck in that role far too often and this year it's been Cain. These guys have too much RBI potential to hit leadoff as much as they do. Maybe time to bite the bullet and just put Villar there for a couple weeks and see how he does? Villar/Yelich/Cain/Shaw/Braun/Thames. At this point, how can it be much worse than living with .223/.299/.414/.712 out of the #3 spot and Perez hitting fifth?

 

I have been campaigning for Villar to hit lead-off for quite some time, I just think like you said above, it would create way more balance throughout the line-up.

 

Villar

Yelich

Cain

Shaw

Thames/Aguilar

Braun

Miller/Perez

Pina/Kratz

Pitcher

 

would be so much more balanced and does a nice job of mixing LHB's with RHB's.