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2018 Lineup (batting order)


TJseven7

While the roster is far from set I can't be the only one waiting for the offseason to bring about an answer to my biggest question and worry:

 

Where is the top of this batting order? I can't do Thames Villar again guys. I just can't. I'll lose my mind. I'd be content with:

 

2 braun (if 1b then phillips brinson 6-7)

3 santana

4 shaw

5 pina/thames

6 aguilar/thames/vogt

7 phillips/brinson

8 arcia

 

But we have nothing but questions at the lead off spot and 2nd base currently. Do we continue to trot out a 2nd basemen at lead off... thames it... do you want arcia there or the starting CF there? Or do you want to add someone specifically for that spot? We didn't play walker there when we had the chance. Do we simply not value the lead off spot?

 

One name people kicked the tires on was Yelich. Without batting an eye at the price I'd be interested at that simply to bat him leadoff. Lefty leadoff low K high obp sets everything up behind him beautifully. You can drop 2nd base down to 7th or 8th in the order and the lineup looks very potent 1-5.

 

Does this bother you as much as it clearly bothers me? Lol

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Righties:

1 Sogard/Villar

2 Phillips

3 Braun

4 Shaw

5 Santana

6 Thames

7 Arcia

8 Pina/Vogt

 

Lefties:

1 Arcia

2 Brinson

3 Braun

4 Shaw

5 Santana

6 Perez

7 Phillips

8 Pina

 

If I could make one move for the Brewers it would be to get Hernandez from the Phillies then I would have him bat leadoff pretty much every day and Villar is gone. Then I would give Phillips some starts against lefties but Perez would get the majority of time against lefties and play left or give Shaw a day off here and there. Still think Perez can be a productive player offensively if not over used. I am also making the decision to play Braun at first against lefties and Aguilar is gone because he can't play anywhere except 1B. Brinson would face his fair share of righties due to Braun and his scheduled days off.

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I'm with you TJ77. I think that a true lead-off hitter would help stabilize the offense (make it less streaky), and I would love to see them find a high-OBP second baseman to fill that role. Bringing back Sogard shows me that Stearns understands that we need some low K / high OBP guys to mix in with all of our high K / high power guys. Sogard makes a good option at utility IF, but I'd rather have a full-time 2B/leadoff hitter with a "professional approach."

 

This is also why I think Perez will be traded. He's helped out the team over the past couple of years, but getting a player with his approach more PAs is not what this team needs.

"The most successful (people) know that performance over the long haul is what counts. If you can seize the day, great. But never forget that there are days yet to come."

 

~Bill Walsh

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I imagine the heart of the order will continue to be Thames, Braun, Shaw, Santana in the 2-5. We probably start the season with 2b position leading off, unless we make a significant position player roster adjustment. Arcia will probably continue to hit 8th unless he starts really hitting. 6-7 is some combo of CF and C, I imagine C will hit 6 more often than CF. That's at least how I imagine it starting. I could see CF taking over the leadoff spot quickly if Phillips or Brinson start to deserve it.
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If Panik goes to the Marlins in the Stanton deal, then it might not be a bad idea for Stearns to give the Marlins a call to see if they would flip Panik to Milwaukee. Obviously the Marlins would rather trade Gordon, but the Brewers have second base candidates that are close to being ready, and there is no rule that states the Marlins can't trade both Panik and Gordon. Panik has been a bit up and down with the seasonal OBP, but lifetime is at .345 and IMO would be a pretty decent fit. Biggest concern is that he was a negative in both DRS and UZR/150 in 2017, although he was a positive in both in the 2015 and 2016 seasons.
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3-7 should be set for the most part:

 

3. Braun LF

4. Shaw 3B

5. Santana RF

6. Thames/Aguilar 1B

7. Pina C

 

That leaves 2B, SS and CF as the remaining pieces for #1, #2 and #8.

 

#1: Sogard, when he plays, should lead off. I like the idea of Brinson in his early years as a leadoff hitter with him gradually moving to #2 and possibly #3 if he hits like we hope.

#2: Ultimately, I like Arcia as a 2 hitter but is that in 2018? For me, he needs to draw a few more walks to truly fit there. I would probably start him at #2 to start the year and see how he does. Phillips, I like at #2 as well.

#8: Villar, when he plays, I like at #8. I believe we will see Villar play a ton to begin the year, so I would pencil him in at #8.

 

RHP

1. Brinson/Sogard

2. Arcia/Phillips (If Arcia fails, Phillips moves to #2 and Arcia back to #8)

8. Villar/Phillips/Arcia

 

LHP

1. Brinson

2. Arcia

8. Villar

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3-7 should be set for the most part:

 

3. Braun LF

4. Shaw 3B

5. Santana RF

6. Thames/Aguilar 1B

7. Pina C

 

That leaves 2B, SS and CF as the remaining pieces for #1, #2 and #8.

 

#1: Sogard, when he plays, should lead off. I like the idea of Brinson in his early years as a leadoff hitter with him gradually moving to #2 and possibly #3 if he hits like we hope.

#2: Ultimately, I like Arcia as a 2 hitter but is that in 2018? For me, he needs to draw a few more walks to truly fit there. I would probably start him at #2 to start the year and see how he does. Phillips, I like at #2 as well.

#8: Villar, when he plays, I like at #8. I believe we will see Villar play a ton to begin the year, so I would pencil him in at #8.

 

RHP

1. Brinson/Sogard

2. Arcia/Phillips (If Arcia fails, Phillips moves to #2 and Arcia back to #8)

8. Villar/Phillips/Arcia

 

LHP

1. Brinson

2. Arcia

8. Villar

 

I'm a fan of making guys earn their way up the order(barring a Braun/Bryant/Fielder type hitter). Arcia should stick to the 8 spot until his hitting improves. I would be more inclined to have Brinson/Phillips and Villar/Sogard in the 1-2 in some order in your scenario of Thames hitting 6th, but I think he's going to hit 2nd like he did this year when he plays. Against LH pitching on days he sits out, I could see Santana or Brinson moving up to 2 with Aguilar hitting 5 or 6.

 

By the end of the year, I expect one of Brinson/Phillips to have earned a more significant slot in the batting order. At the same time, I expect Villar to be cemented into the leadoff role by June with Sogard as strictly a utility guy/bench bat.

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3-7 should be set for the most part:

 

3. Braun LF

4. Shaw 3B

5. Santana RF

6. Thames/Aguilar 1B

7. Pina C

 

That leaves 2B, SS and CF as the remaining pieces for #1, #2 and #8.

 

#1: Sogard, when he plays, should lead off. I like the idea of Brinson in his early years as a leadoff hitter with him gradually moving to #2 and possibly #3 if he hits like we hope.

#2: Ultimately, I like Arcia as a 2 hitter but is that in 2018? For me, he needs to draw a few more walks to truly fit there. I would probably start him at #2 to start the year and see how he does. Phillips, I like at #2 as well.

#8: Villar, when he plays, I like at #8. I believe we will see Villar play a ton to begin the year, so I would pencil him in at #8.

 

RHP

1. Brinson/Sogard

2. Arcia/Phillips (If Arcia fails, Phillips moves to #2 and Arcia back to #8)

8. Villar/Phillips/Arcia

 

LHP

1. Brinson

2. Arcia

8. Villar

 

I'm a fan of making guys earn their way up the order(barring a Braun/Bryant/Fielder type hitter). Arcia should stick to the 8 spot until his hitting improves. I would be more inclined to have Brinson/Phillips and Villar/Sogard in the 1-2 in some order in your scenario of Thames hitting 6th, but I think he's going to hit 2nd like he did this year when he plays. Against LH pitching on days he sits out, I could see Santana or Brinson moving up to 2 with Aguilar hitting 5 or 6.

 

By the end of the year, I expect one of Brinson/Phillips to have earned a more significant slot in the batting order. At the same time, I expect Villar to be cemented into the leadoff role by June with Sogard as strictly a utility guy/bench bat.

While I am an optimist, I didn't want to sound OVERLY optimistic. While I have higher hopes than you for Arcia (I think he will be the one to cement himself in the #2 spot), this would be THE ideal scenario for the Brewers in 2018. Villar returning to 2016 form, Brinson/Phillips firmly planting themselves in the #2 spot and Arcia remaining a top end #8 hitter.

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1. High OBP. Ideally one of your three best hitters.

2. Best or second best overall hitter

3. Best hitter remaining after filling #2, #4 and #1

4. Best or second best overall hitter, bigger emphasis on XBH than #2

5. Power hitter

6-9 The rest in decending order of production. Maybe have the pitcher bat 8th; the better your #1 hitter is the more sense it makes.

 

That's basically what The Book says, and their methodology is sound enough that I'll go with it. Generally though my main takeaway from that is that the batting order doesn't make that big of a difference as long as you use even some common sense.

 

So applying that to the Brewers, the problem is the leadoff spot. The guys who get on base a lot are either not great overall hitters (Sogard) or are power hitters who you'd like a bit further down the lineup (Santana, Thames). But with that in mind:

 

1. Sogard (Villar if we get the 2016 version)

2. Santana

3. Braun

4. Shaw

5. Thames

6. Phillips/Brinson

7. Piña

8. Arcia

9. Pitcher

 

6-9 are fluid for me, whoever performs best moves up. If someone turns out to get on base a ton, try them in the leadoff spot. I wouldn't mind batting the pitcher 8th, but it's something like 1-2 runs gained over a whole season so I'm not bothered either way.

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1. High OBP. Ideally one of your three best hitters.

2. Best or second best overall hitter

3. Best hitter remaining after filling #2, #4 and #1

4. Best or second best overall hitter, bigger emphasis on XBH than #2

5. Power hitter

6-9 The rest in decending order of production. Maybe have the pitcher bat 8th; the better your #1 hitter is the more sense it makes.

 

That's basically what The Book says, and their methodology is sound enough that I'll go with it. Generally though my main takeaway from that is that the batting order doesn't make that big of a difference as long as you use even some common sense.

 

So applying that to the Brewers, the problem is the leadoff spot. The guys who get on base a lot are either not great overall hitters (Sogard) or are power hitters who you'd like a bit further down the lineup (Santana, Thames). But with that in mind:

 

1. Sogard (Villar if we get the 2016 version)

2. Santana

3. Braun

4. Shaw

5. Thames

6. Phillips/Brinson

7. Piña

8. Arcia

9. Pitcher

 

6-9 are fluid for me, whoever performs best moves up. If someone turns out to get on base a ton, try them in the leadoff spot. I wouldn't mind batting the pitcher 8th, but it's something like 1-2 runs gained over a whole season so I'm not bothered either way.

I favor a L-R-L-R. Splitting Braun and Santana & Shaw and Thames is necessary in my opinion. Seeing that Braun and Shaw are likely locked in at 3-4, your options are putting Santana and Thames at 5-6 or Thames at 2 and Santana at 5. I would be good either way, but would require the splitting of the L-R if I were Counsell.

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I don't mind Thames at 2 and Santana at 5, I just overall prefer to have Santana earlier as he's one of our best hitters.

 

The value of alternating L-R-L is one that varies a lot depending on who you play, what kind of bullpen they have, how willing they are to play matchups, what kind of splits the lineup has etc. Sometimes you should absolutely do it, sometimes not. The fact that Counsell usually did have Thames at #2 and Santana at #5 (When Braun/Shaw were available) would suggest he agrees with you. I just favour the more "macro" approach of giving your best hitters as many plate appearances as possible, and playing matchups only when it makes the biggest difference.

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1. High OBP. Ideally one of your three best hitters.

2. Best or second best overall hitter

3. Best hitter remaining after filling #2, #4 and #1

4. Best or second best overall hitter, bigger emphasis on XBH than #2

5. Power hitter

6-9 The rest in decending order of production. Maybe have the pitcher bat 8th; the better your #1 hitter is the more sense it makes.

 

That's basically what The Book says, and their methodology is sound enough that I'll go with it. Generally though my main takeaway from that is that the batting order doesn't make that big of a difference as long as you use even some common sense.

 

So applying that to the Brewers, the problem is the leadoff spot. The guys who get on base a lot are either not great overall hitters (Sogard) or are power hitters who you'd like a bit further down the lineup (Santana, Thames). But with that in mind:

 

1. Sogard (Villar if we get the 2016 version)

2. Santana

3. Braun

4. Shaw

5. Thames

6. Phillips/Brinson

7. Piña

8. Arcia

9. Pitcher

 

6-9 are fluid for me, whoever performs best moves up. If someone turns out to get on base a ton, try them in the leadoff spot. I wouldn't mind batting the pitcher 8th, but it's something like 1-2 runs gained over a whole season so I'm not bothered either way.

I favor a L-R-L-R. Splitting Braun and Santana & Shaw and Thames is necessary in my opinion. Seeing that Braun and Shaw are likely locked in at 3-4, your options are putting Santana and Thames at 5-6 or Thames at 2 and Santana at 5. I would be good either way, but would require the splitting of the L-R if I were Counsell.

 

Counsel showed a tendency to do that as well, especially earlier on before September rolled around and expanded rosters allowed us to use virtually all LH hitters vs RH starters and vice versa.

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If this is truly Sogard's new norm of getting on base, I don't completely mind him being leadoff.

 

That said, I'd like to maximize the ABs of our best hitters. We're starting Santana because he's got arguably the best bat on the team so get him the most ABs against lefties and nearly the most against righties. I know that if Sogard is truly a .380+ OBP guy that he's up there, but I'd go:

 

vs. L

1. Santana

2. Braun

3. Shaw

4. Aguilar (if Braun moves to 1B, RH corner OF could maybe go here or move everyone up a slot)

5. Brinson

6. Pina

7. Arcia

8. Sogard (let him still get on and turn the lineup over)

9. Pitcher

 

vs. R

1. Thames

2. Shaw

3. Santana

4. Braun

5. Phillips (if not confident yet, move him down to 8 and everyone up)

6. Sogard

7. Vogt

8. Arcia

9. Pitcher

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1. High OBP. Ideally one of your three best hitters.

2. Best or second best overall hitter

3. Best hitter remaining after filling #2, #4 and #1

4. Best or second best overall hitter, bigger emphasis on XBH than #2

5. Power hitter

6-9 The rest in decending order of production. Maybe have the pitcher bat 8th; the better your #1 hitter is the more sense it makes.

 

That's basically what The Book says, and their methodology is sound enough that I'll go with it. Generally though my main takeaway from that is that the batting order doesn't make that big of a difference as long as you use even some common sense.

 

So applying that to the Brewers, the problem is the leadoff spot. The guys who get on base a lot are either not great overall hitters (Sogard) or are power hitters who you'd like a bit further down the lineup (Santana, Thames). But with that in mind:

 

1. Sogard (Villar if we get the 2016 version)

2. Santana

3. Braun

4. Shaw

5. Thames

6. Phillips/Brinson

7. Piña

8. Arcia

9. Pitcher

 

6-9 are fluid for me, whoever performs best moves up. If someone turns out to get on base a ton, try them in the leadoff spot. I wouldn't mind batting the pitcher 8th, but it's something like 1-2 runs gained over a whole season so I'm not bothered either way.

I know it's basically a one year sample, but why not have Thames at #2 and Santana at #5.

 

-Thames hit .180 with RISP, but he got on base at a .359 clip.

-Domingo hit .300 with RISP, which a similar OBP of .371.

 

Again it was only one year, but I cringed when I saw Thames up with runners in scoring position. Both will strike out a fair share, but I trust Domingo to come up with a clutch hit more than I would for Thames.

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1. High OBP. Ideally one of your three best hitters.

2. Best or second best overall hitter

3. Best hitter remaining after filling #2, #4 and #1

4. Best or second best overall hitter, bigger emphasis on XBH than #2

5. Power hitter

6-9 The rest in decending order of production. Maybe have the pitcher bat 8th; the better your #1 hitter is the more sense it makes.

 

That's basically what The Book says, and their methodology is sound enough that I'll go with it. Generally though my main takeaway from that is that the batting order doesn't make that big of a difference as long as you use even some common sense.

 

So applying that to the Brewers, the problem is the leadoff spot. The guys who get on base a lot are either not great overall hitters (Sogard) or are power hitters who you'd like a bit further down the lineup (Santana, Thames). But with that in mind:

 

1. Sogard (Villar if we get the 2016 version)

2. Santana

3. Braun

4. Shaw

5. Thames

6. Phillips/Brinson

7. Piña

8. Arcia

9. Pitcher

 

6-9 are fluid for me, whoever performs best moves up. If someone turns out to get on base a ton, try them in the leadoff spot. I wouldn't mind batting the pitcher 8th, but it's something like 1-2 runs gained over a whole season so I'm not bothered either way.

I know it's basically a one year sample, but why not have Thames at #2 and Santana at #5.

 

-Thames hit .180 with RISP, but he got on base at a .359 clip.

-Domingo hit .300 with RISP, which a similar OBP of .371.

 

Again it was only one year, but I cringed when I saw Thames up with runners in scoring position. Both will strike out a fair share, but I trust Domingo to come up with a clutch hit more than I would for Thames.

 

That's why I'd hit Domingo 1 or 2 if that's your argument. He may not get up with RISP the first time around but it's more likely that Domingo will get more ABs with RISP later in the game because he'll be hitting more often.

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If we go hard platoon... I wish we would with guys like sogard thames vogt broxton... thames starts vs every rhp... sogard vogt only start vs rhp.... broxton only vs lhp.

 

Rhp

65/35 Sogard/villar

Thames all

Santana

Shaw

Braun (rest vs rhp but who?)

50/50 Vogt/Pina

Phillips all

Arcia (rest vs rhp)

 

Looks just fine. Sogard thames 1-2 vs rhp doesn't make my stomach turn. Good obp sogard low K thames low gidp. Then the rest sets up easily. Broxton should only start vs lhp so if he stays who spells braun? Brinson could bat 7th if we call him up inplace of broxton. He should not be strict platoon. Thames LF with aguilar at 1st? No matter how its not ideal.

 

Just thinking out loud...

1b thames aguilar

2b villar sogard

Ss arcia

3b shaw perez

Of santana braun phillips broxton

 

Lhp

Perez/villar (if villar doesn't bounce back vs lhp he needs to lose those ab)

Braun/aguilar (hate resting braun vs lhp but its less painful)

Santana

Shaw

Aguilar/broxton (broxton only vs lhp)

Pina

Broxton/phillips (dont want phillips in a strict platoon)

Arcia

 

Yeah it's the villar sogard non-functional platoon. Villar needs to get back his 2016 numbers vs lhp. Although I dont like the idea of sogard leading a platoon in ab... and I hate the idea of villar batting atop the order if he's not back in 2016 form. If he falters vs lhp perez needs to get those ab and thats still not ideal. I want a vet 2b who kills lefties and is solid against RHP on a 2 year deal. Just incase villar sucks again. Would love Panik or Hernandez but I think it can be done cheaper. (No assets traded out) That add comes at the expense of perez. Need villar to be more super sub then.

 

The more I think about it... we promite Phillips day 1 and stand pat... ugh. Hope I'm wrong.

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1. Arcia

2. Phillips

3. Shaw

4. Santana

5. Thames

6. Braun

7. Piña

8. Pitcher

9. Sogard

 

Now it's balanced. It's not always about power and power slots in the batting order it should be about moving runners who can get on base and make sure the guy behind him can make contact. This order will do that and win games

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Still not buying that Sogard has figured it out as a hitter and that a near 2017 performance is the new normal for him. In 1331 plate appearances for the A's Sogard was a .239/.295/.313/.609 hitter and his best single season OBP was .322. I bet he's much closer to that in 2018.
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Banking on Sogard to be a contributor to the 2018 offense will put us back in the 70 win range. The dude cannot hit.

 

And any lineup that starts with Arica/Phillips IMO makes no sense to me. They might be our two most inconsistent hitters in our lineup next season if what we have stays exactly the same. Heck, leading off Braun makes more sense than doing that.

"This is a very simple game. You throw the ball, you catch the ball, you hit the ball. Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose, sometimes it rains." Think about that for a while.
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I agree with pretty much everything Lathund and hAll Star said. Best hitters 1-4, OBP most important, #3 might be a little overrated, more ab's for your best hitters trumps profiling certain spots in the lineup, speed on the bases is little more than a tiebreaker for higher spots. Don't get cute and give inferior hitters lots of ab's. The notion that power is wasted in the #1 or #2 spot is a bad reason to move superior hitters down in the order. Alternating L-R's is nice.

 

One weird situation for the Brewers is Thames. Normally I would dismiss his hitting with RISP as a statistical aberration, but I think he gets a little nervous in those situations. I think he's a bit of a self-doubter who presses. Therefore the conventional wisdom about moving a good power hitter down to #5 is even more wrong in his case. It's better to get a hr with nobody on than k with 2 men on. His OBP is good. He will get pitches to hit in the lead-off spot. I'd probably go with Santana 2nd, Shaw 3rd, and Braun 4th, just to alternate LR's and have the best hitters in the top 4. I don't know what happens after that, but Phillips-Arcia-Pina/Vogt-pitcher-Villar/Sogard could set the table for the power-heavy top of the lineup. Hitting the pitcher 8th is a good move when your lineup is so top-heavy.

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Yeah, similar to what CHL noted in the pitching thread. We've got the data in front of us. Maybe teams even knew it but got away with it back in the 80s because "everyone else did it" and just threw their average starting pitchers into the 8th regularly or put Tony Gwynn Jr. at leadoff...but you have to keep up with the Joneses now.

 

Sure, if one of your best hitters can still "hit runners over" that is nice and put him at the 2 spot...but otherwise you basically just order your lineup to get your best hitters to the plate with OBP and slugging being a huge factor. If Sogard is truly a .370 OBP guy, I would not totally hate him batting near the top, but he should probably be in the lower half of the lineup. Domingo Santana is arguably our best hitter. Let's get him the most ABs. If not, it's like pitching your ace in the 4 spot of your rotation and sometimes skipping him because you want to be "the losing streak stopper."

 

None of the final 4 teams had a "traditional leadoff hitter" batting leadoff other than maybe the Yankees...but they had an extremely nontraditional hitter batting #2 (Judge) and Gardner at #1 had plenty of pop and OBP skills.

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You need to check the stats. Sogard has the second best OBP on the team and why I would bat him at 9th. Only 3 other players have better OBP than Phillips (though I agree small sample) but you need to give him the chance to prove he deserves to be hitting 2nd. Arcia will be fine and I believe in improvement for him this year. This order maximizes performance, do not get distracted by power. Games are won by constantly moving runners. The order should never be heavy in any particular part of the line up especially when you have over all "fairly" good bats excluding the pitcher.
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Villar had a .369 OBP two years ago and Sogard was at .393 last year. Villar has a little more power but I'd still hit him first because he can steal bases. Sogard is left-handed so he can hit grounders to 2b and advance Villar to 3b. Arcia was our #1 prospect so I'd hit him #3 since he's obviously going to be a star. You need that speed to be on base for the cleanup hitter. Phillips obviously deserves a chance to hit at the top of the order too, so he's 4th. He had a .363 OBP in his career in the minors. Then you can go with the MVP Braun, Shaw, Pina, and Thames in that order.

 

Who's Domingo?

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Villar had a .369 OBP two years ago and Sogard was at .393 last year. Villar has a little more power but I'd still hit him first because he can steal bases. Sogard is left-handed so he can hit grounders to 2b and advance Villar to 3b. Arcia was our #1 prospect so I'd hit him #3 since he's obviously going to be a star. You need that speed to be on base for the cleanup hitter. Phillips obviously deserves a chance to hit at the top of the order too, so he's 4th. He had a .363 OBP in his career in the minors. Then you can go with the MVP Braun, Shaw, Pina, and Thames in that order.

 

Who's Domingo?

 

I'm assuming sarcasm in this. It seems your point would be something like, guys need to earn their way to the top/middle of the order and it won't be given to them?

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Villar had a .369 OBP two years ago and Sogard was at .393 last year. Villar has a little more power but I'd still hit him first because he can steal bases. Sogard is left-handed so he can hit grounders to 2b and advance Villar to 3b. Arcia was our #1 prospect so I'd hit him #3 since he's obviously going to be a star. You need that speed to be on base for the cleanup hitter. Phillips obviously deserves a chance to hit at the top of the order too, so he's 4th. He had a .363 OBP in his career in the minors. Then you can go with the MVP Braun, Shaw, Pina, and Thames in that order.

 

Who's Domingo?

 

I'm assuming sarcasm in this. It seems your point would be something like, guys need to earn their way to the top/middle of the order and it won't be given to them?

 

I think his point is

 

1. You can't ignore all of the bad years Sogard had when evaluating him and

 

2. We can't keep using the antiquated "let's get guys that can move the runners over at the top of the lineup" thing. We should be getting our best hitters the most at bats. That means Thames (against RHP), Domingo, Shaw, and Braun should be at the top for the most part.

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