Royals Trading Partners? - Danny Duffy, Whit Merrifield

[Austin Tatious]

Pass on giving up that haul. This isn’t Zach Grienke at 26. I’m glad Stearns is driving a hard bargain. You’re not suddenly a serious contender even with those three.

 

I might be convinced if I can swap Corey Ray for Harrison. If they don’t like it, pound sand.

 

Recognizing where we are as an organization is important. We aren’t ready this year and won’t be. I think Stearns gets the timing aspect.

[brewmann04]

I think the brewers should pass especially giving up young arm without any injuries

[JohnBriggs12]

I put Hiura ahead of Isan Diaz as a prospect. Yeah Diaz can play SS, but not very well, and besides Arcia has the SS job locked down for a while. Plus after hitting .222 last year, Diaz' bat is in question too.

 

Duffy in the NL could be a #2 and he's controlled though 2021. What's not to like? Merrifield is a cheap productive place holder until Hiura takes over, likely in 2020.

There's definitely some risk in giving up Burnes and Harrison to be sure, but it's not like their system is devoid of pitching and outfield prospects or that they won't have guys they could deal themselves to bolster the system.

 

The key would be Herrera. If he bounces back to a level closer to 2016, he can fill the 8th inning role and that could hasten Hader's move to rotation.

 

On balance I like this deal for not just 2018, but certainly 2019.

[brewcrewdue80]

I put Hiura ahead of Isan Diaz as a prospect. Yeah Diaz can play SS, but not very well, and besides Arcia has the SS job locked down for a while. Plus after hitting .222 last year, Diaz' bat is in question too.

 

Duffy in the NL could be a #2 and he's controlled though 2021. What's not to like? Merrifield is a cheap productive place holder until Hiura takes over, likely in 2020.

There's definitely some risk in giving up Burnes and Harrison to be sure, but it's not like their system is devoid of pitching and outfield prospects or that they won't have guys they could deal themselves to bolster the system.

 

The key would be Herrera. If he bounces back to a level closer to 2016, he can fill the 8th inning role and that could hasten Hader's move to rotation.

 

On balance I like this deal for not just 2018, but certainly 2019.

 

What's not to like is that Cobb or Lynn projection cost is what Duffy is going to make as 4/~60mil and both those two have better career numbers than Duffy. Merrifield can't be counted on to Improve 2b's production over Villar/Sogard. So then you're making the trade for Herrera at this cost?

Not buying it.

 

Edit add against Merrifield.

Remember He got to throw to Hosmer at 1b who's Career Range Factor is 8.95.

 

Villar and the Brewers inf d had 8.21 from Thames and under 7 from Aguilar. I'd expect Merrifield's D will be negatively impacted with whomever takes the Royals 1b opening.

[CheeseheadInQC]

I'd be leery about trading Harrison. I know it makes some sense to sell high, but more so even than Brinson, he seems to be the one in the Brewers system with the best chance to be a legitimate star.

[clancyphile]

Here's my trade package with the Royals:

 

Royals get:

IF Jonathan Villar

1B Eric Thames

RHP Phil Bickford

OF Corey Ray

C Jacob Nottingham

 

Brewers get:

LHP Danny Duffy

1B Samir Duenez

LHP Foster Griffin

 

At this point, I think the Brewers are well-served to go for Duffy. He is price-controlled, and at least for a couple of years, he'd be a good fit. We'll send Villar as a bounce-back candidate, Thames to give them an option to replace Hosmer (I'm selling high on Thames), Bickford as a high-end bullpen arm, Ray, and Nottingham.

 

Duffy of course, slots into the rotation with Anderson, Davies, Chacin, and Suter. Woodruff can be AAA depth/injury insurance.

 

Duenez offers better defense, and gives Aguilar a chance to be the full-time 1B. I think he could be a faster Lyle Overbay.

 

Foster Griffin is a high-floor starting pitching prospect who won't be an ace, but could be that guy who gives you a solid 3.50-4.00 ERA cheap for a few years.

[JosephC]

And I'll play the part of the Royals GM and say the Thames/Villar/Ray/Bickford/Nottingham offer is an easy pass. Do like Thames but really wouldn't have much interest in Villar. The best arm in the deal coming back to the Royals would have to be better than Bickford (even though personally I am still pretty high on Bickford). Best prospect the Brewers are giving up is Ray and in Baseball America's updated rankings he is only #10, no way is that going to work for a pitcher like Duffy.

 

How about:

 

Brewers get:

LHP - Danny Duffy

RHP - Kelvin Herrera

 

Royals get:

1B - Eric Thames

RHP - Luis Ortiz

3B - Lucas Erceg

RHP - Freddie Peralta

OF - Troy Stokes

[clancyphile]

And I'll play the part of the Royals GM and say the Thames/Villar/Ray/Bickford/Nottingham offer is an easy pass. Do like Thames but really wouldn't have much interest in Villar. The best arm in the deal coming back to the Royals would have to be better than Bickford (even though personally I am still pretty high on Bickford). Best prospect the Brewers are giving up is Ray and in Baseball America's updated rankings he is only #10, no way is that going to work for a pitcher like Duffy.

 

How about:

 

Brewers get:

LHP - Danny Duffy

RHP - Kelvin Herrera

 

Royals get:

1B - Eric Thames

RHP - Luis Ortiz

3B - Lucas Erceg

RHP - Freddie Peralta

OF - Troy Stokes

 

And I'll go back to being the Brewers' GM, and pass.

 

Peralta and Ortiz are a no-go. Bickford and Ortiz would be better.

 

Erceg and Stokes? The Royals would need to give far more than Herrera. I'm personally high on Stokes (See him as another Lorenzo Cain).

 

Let's try this:

 

Brewers get:

LHP Danny Duffy

OF Khalil Lee

1B Samir Duenez

LHP Foster Griffin

2B Gabriel Cancel

 

Royals get:

1B Eric Thames

3B Lucas Erceg

RHP Phil Bickford

RHP Luis Ortiz

C Josh Nottingham

OF Corey Ray

[wallus]

 

Let's try this:

 

Brewers get:

LHP Danny Duffy

OF Khalil Lee

1B Samir Duenez

LHP Foster Griffin

2B Gabriel Cancel

 

Royals get:

1B Eric Thames

3B Lucas Erceg

RHP Phil Bickford

RHP Luis Ortiz

C Josh Nottingham

OF Corey Ray

 

When is the last time that many players were involved in one trade between two teams?

[brewmann04]

i hope DS is not crazy to do this and continues to bid his time

[JosephC]

And I'll go back to being the Brewers' GM, and pass.

 

Peralta and Ortiz are a no-go. Bickford and Ortiz would be better.

 

Erceg and Stokes? The Royals would need to give far more than Herrera. I'm personally high on Stokes (See him as another Lorenzo Cain).

 

Let's try this:

 

Brewers get:

LHP Danny Duffy

OF Khalil Lee

1B Samir Duenez

LHP Foster Griffin

2B Gabriel Cancel

 

Royals get:

1B Eric Thames

3B Lucas Erceg

RHP Phil Bickford

RHP Luis Ortiz

C Josh Nottingham

OF Corey Ray

 

I agree 100% that the Brewer's farm system is much better than the Royals. But why would Kansas City kick in three of their own top 10 prospects and off-set so much of the prospect value they are getting back in the trade? I'd roughly estimate the value of the Brewer prospects to be about 52.2 million and the Royals prospects to be about 30.9 million. Picking up just a bit over 20 million in prospect surplus value isn't enough in a Duffy/Thames swap.

 

I'd counter with:

 

Brewers get:

LHP - Danny Duffy

2B - Gabriel Cancel

 

Royals get:

1B - Eric Thames

RHP - Luis Ortiz

3B - Lucas Erceg

OF - Corey Ray

RHP - Phil Bickford

[clancyphile]

And I'll go back to being the Brewers' GM, and pass.

 

Peralta and Ortiz are a no-go. Bickford and Ortiz would be better.

 

Erceg and Stokes? The Royals would need to give far more than Herrera. I'm personally high on Stokes (See him as another Lorenzo Cain).

 

Let's try this:

 

Brewers get:

LHP Danny Duffy

OF Khalil Lee

1B Samir Duenez

LHP Foster Griffin

2B Gabriel Cancel

 

Royals get:

1B Eric Thames

3B Lucas Erceg

RHP Phil Bickford

RHP Luis Ortiz

C Josh Nottingham

OF Corey Ray

 

I agree 100% that the Brewer's farm system is much better than the Royals. But why would Kansas City kick in three of their own top 10 prospects and off-set so much of the prospect value they are getting back in the trade? I'd roughly estimate the value of the Brewer prospects to be about 52.2 million and the Royals prospects to be about 30.9 million. Picking up just a bit over 20 million in prospect surplus value isn't enough in a Duffy/Thames swap.

 

I'd counter with:

 

Brewers get:

LHP - Danny Duffy

2B - Gabriel Cancel

 

Royals get:

1B - Eric Thames

RHP - Luis Ortiz

3B - Lucas Erceg

OF - Corey Ray

RHP - Phil Bickford

 

I'd make a final offer of:

Brewers get:

LHP Danny Duffy

LHP Foster Griffin

2B Gabriel Cancel

1B Samir Duenez

 

Royals get:

1B Eric Thames

RHP Luis Ortiz

3B Lucas Erceg

OF Corey Ray

RHP Phil Bickford

C Jacob Nottingham

 

EDIT: Keep in mind, the Royals get Thames to replace Hosmer, which saves them a ton of payroll (at least $15 million a year, based on what rumors I see), and the Brewers are taking on more salary for Duffy ($14 million/year). That's a $29 million savings for the Royals.

[JosephC]

With all the free agent losses, I'm not concerned about payroll because I don't really see it as being a limiting factor. I certainly wouldn't be looking to lose Cain, Hosmer, Moustakas and then trade away Duffy and turn around and invest in the free agent market. Long term rebuild with lots of low salaried players, so I really don't think payroll is an issue for the Royals for the next few seasons. For me it's all about value and getting proper value for Duffy.

 

I also have no interest in Jacob Nottingham.

 

Hard to look at it from the Royal's perspective and pick up what would probably would be 3 top 10 prospects and then turn around and trade 2 of their own top 10 prospects in the same deal.

 

My math currently stands as follows. My last offer had Duffy valued at 65.37 million and your last offer had Duffy valued at 50.49 million. I'd be willing to split the difference but that's as low as I would go. Just suspect I could find a better offer elsewhere unless I get a minimum of 55 million in surplus value. If you insist on Griffin and Duenez being included, then to even it up it would require the Brewers to subtract Nottingham from the offer and include someone like Isan Diaz, Tristen Lutz, Freddy Peralta or Brett Phillips. That would kick up the value of Duffy in this deal to 59.65 million. To bring it back down closer to the midpoint the Royals could either include RHP - Kelvin Herrera or another fringe prospect (anybody other than Nick Pratto, Khalil Green, Josh Staumont, Hunter Dozier, Eric Skoglund, Scott Blewett, M.J. Melendez, Nicky Lopez, Seuly Matias, Miguel Amonte). That puts Duffy's value in the deal at 57.36 million which I think is a fair price. If Diaz, Lutz, Peralta and Phillips are all valued too high for inclusion in the deal, then you have to figure out how to subtract Griffin and/or Duenez and still make it work.

[KeithStone53151]

https://royalsfarmreport.com/2017/12/29/royals-need-to-make-a-deal-with-milwaukee/

 

The Milwaukee Brewers receive:

 

LHP Danny Duffy

2B/LF Whit Merrifield

RHP Kelvin Herrera

 

The Kansas City Royals receive:

 

CF Monte Harrison

RHP Corbin Burnes

2B/SS Isan Diaz

RHP Jordan Yamamoto

 

I doubled back to this site and the comments section out of curiosity. The Royals fans seem to think this is a bad deal for THEM and are convinced they should get Brinson as part of any deal for Duffy. Clearly these guys have no concept of team control, market value, injury history, a guy on a career year, etc...all these other pieces that go into valuing players.

 

I honestly don't know why we would target Merrifield to begin with. We have a guy like him, a left handed version named Sogard. I don't see much of a difference between the two aside from team control and that Sogard can actually draw a walk. And team control isn't as important for players of their caliber...especially considering what we have coming through the pipeline. It's likely that Merrifield will regress enough to not even be tendered a contract at some point during his team control regardless of who he plays for.

[Warning Track Power]

https://royalsfarmreport.com/2017/12/29/royals-need-to-make-a-deal-with-milwaukee/

 

The Milwaukee Brewers receive:

 

LHP Danny Duffy

2B/LF Whit Merrifield

RHP Kelvin Herrera

 

The Kansas City Royals receive:

 

CF Monte Harrison

RHP Corbin Burnes

2B/SS Isan Diaz

RHP Jordan Yamamoto

 

I doubled back to this site and the comments section out of curiosity. The Royals fans seem to think this is a bad deal for THEM and are convinced they should get Brinson as part of any deal for Duffy. Clearly these guys have no concept of team control, market value, injury history, a guy on a career year, etc...all these other pieces that go into valuing players.

 

I honestly don't know why we would target Merrifield to begin with. We have a guy like him, a left handed version named Sogard. I don't see much of a difference between the two aside from team control and that Sogard can actually draw a walk. And team control isn't as important for players of their caliber...especially considering what we have coming through the pipeline. It's likely that Merrifield will regress enough to not even be tendered a contract at some point during his team control regardless of who he plays for.

I have zero interest in Merrifield when the Brewers could sign Neil Walker and not surrender any prospect of value to get him. I am not a fan of the buy high mentality especially when it comes to guys with no track record.

[KeithStone53151]

I have zero interest in Merrifield when the Brewers could sign Neil Walker and not surrender any prospect of value to get him. I am not a fan of the buy high mentality especially when it comes to guys with no track record.

 

Well right absolutely, but I have no interest in Merrifield whether we sign Walker or not. I just don't think he's that good of a player. I don't see how he's much of an upgrade from Sogard or Perez if at all. I doubt he ever touches his SB or HR totals again. He'll probably be a 275/325/380 hitter going forward, which really isn't valuable at all.

[JosephC]

I'd really like to see Stearns make a run for Herrera now. My impression of the Royals/Dodgers/White Sox swap yesterday is that the Royals sold Scott Alexander low in order to unload Joakim Soria's contract. Maybe now the Royals would be too worried about complete emptying their bullpen with Soria and Alexander gone, but if not there is a pretty good chance the Brewers could land Herrera for next to nothing.

 

I'd also agree with the Royal fans. Duffy should be valued as a 3+ WAR starter. Roughly speaking, over the next four years at 10 million per WAR that makes him a 30 million dollar player per year. He's making an average of 15 million per year so he'd have +15 million in surplus value per season so over four years that puts a very reasonable estimate on him of +60 million dollars. Even if the Royals sell low on him there is no way they should move him for anything less than 50 million dollars in surplus value. I'd classify Burnes as being a pitcher between 75-100 on the top 100 list, Harrison as a hitter being barely off the top 100 list, Diaz is now firmly off the top 100 list but a solid top 10 organizational prospect and Yamamoto as a fringe prospect. That means Burnes = 17.86 million, Harrison = 17.52 million, Diaz = 11.45 million, Yamamoto = 2.29 million for a total of 49.12 million. Royals should get more than that for Duffy alone. If Harrison does crack the top 100 list that bumps his value to 23.58 million and then the total prospect package is worth an estimated 55.18 million and then, while a tad bit low, could be an offer the Royals would accept. Herrera could be included in that, Brewers could use another bullpen arm and KC could be looking to dump his salary.

[JohnBriggs12]

I have zero interest in Merrifield when the Brewers could sign Neil Walker and not surrender any prospect of value to get him. I am not a fan of the buy high mentality especially when it comes to guys with no track record.

 

Well right absolutely, but I have no interest in Merrifield whether we sign Walker or not. I just don't think he's that good of a player. I don't see how he's much of an upgrade from Sogard or Perez if at all. I doubt he ever touches his SB or HR totals again. He'll probably be a 275/325/380 hitter going forward, which really isn't valuable at all.

 

Merrifield has a track record of nearly 1,000 major league plate appearances. I have a hard time believing his numbers: .286/.324/.437 are fluky though I've long thought that if given a full time job that Perez could produce similar numbers. He took a little step backward last year in my opinion, maybe because all the moving around combined with a full winter ball stretch took a toll and there doesn't seem to be a commitment by Brewer brass to give Hernan an everyday job. But if I can get Merrifield in a package with Duffy who I like as much or more than Archer, then if I'm the Brewers I make this offer:

 

Royals get:

 

Brinson

Woodruff

Perez

Ortiz

Diaz

 

Brewers get:

 

Duffy

Merrifield

 

Then I go all out and sign Cain and my 2018 lineup and rotation looks like this:

 

Cain

Merrifield

Shaw

Braun

Thames

Santana

Arcia

Pina/Vogt

 

Infield backups: Sogard, Villar, Aguilar

OF Depth: Phillips

 

Rotation: Anderson, Duffy, Davies, Chacin, one of Guerra, Gallardo, Suter

 

That lineup WAR in 2017 per B-R: 23.9 and everyone is controllable at least through 2019

 

Rotation WAR in 2017 per B-R: 16.2 (Assumes Suter) and everyone other than Gallardo is controllable through at least 2019, with the top 3 all controllable through at least 2020.

[pacopete4]

I'm sorry Briggs, but that is just flat out nuts what you are giving up to get that return. Talk about hamstringing the future of the organization.

[Warning Track Power]

Royals get:

 

Brinson

Woodruff

Perez

Ortiz

Diaz

 

Brewers get:

 

Duffy

Merrifield

This is a HUGE overpay and a total win now move. Brinson, Ortiz and Diaz is more than I am willing to pay to get Duffy and I have zero interest in Woodruff for Merrifield especially with Villar/Sogard on the roster and Walker still available.

[TURBO]

UGH!

[mrn1ceguy]

I'm sorry Briggs, but that is just flat out nuts what you are giving up to get that return. Talk about hamstringing the future of the organization.

 

Not just the future, but I would put it at 50/50 that trading Brinson & Woodruff (alone) for Duffy & Merrifield could even make the 2018 roster worse (or its at least close enough to give pause). Not to mention the prospects, the loss of draft pick for having to sign Cain and what not.

 

Too look at it another way:

 

-Duffy vs Woodruff - edge to Duffy but honestly, it may be really close if Woodruff lives up to the potential he has shown.

-Merrifield vs Villar/Sogard/Perez/Walker - I would call this a draw between regression from Merrifield & Sogard, bounce back by Villar or signing Walker.

-Cain vs Brinson/Phillips - definite edge to Cain for next year offensively but a likely edge to Brinson/Phillips defensively. Additionally Brinson & Phillips have the potential to outplay Cain offensively in 2018 if they live up to their potential they have shown. And this doesn't take into account age regression by Cain which is definitely possible.

 

Additionally, every KC option costs more $$, costs more prospects, and costs draft picks. You are at best looking for a slight upgrade in 2018 with likely major steps back in 2019 and beyond. And that's the best case scenario.

[JosephC]

It really would be cool if Attanasio thought sticking another 35 million on the payroll was as easy as some fans do. It would put the Brewers at around 105 million this year with would be workable but with Santana, Shaw, Davies, Knebel all likely earning pretty big money in arbitration it could easily push the Brewer's payroll to 130 million by 2020.

[KeithStone53151]

I have zero interest in Merrifield when the Brewers could sign Neil Walker and not surrender any prospect of value to get him. I am not a fan of the buy high mentality especially when it comes to guys with no track record.

 

Well right absolutely, but I have no interest in Merrifield whether we sign Walker or not. I just don't think he's that good of a player. I don't see how he's much of an upgrade from Sogard or Perez if at all. I doubt he ever touches his SB or HR totals again. He'll probably be a 275/325/380 hitter going forward, which really isn't valuable at all.

 

Merrifield has a track record of nearly 1,000 major league plate appearances. I have a hard time believing his numbers: .286/.324/.437 are fluky though I've long thought that if given a full time job that Perez could produce similar numbers. He took a little step backward last year in my opinion, maybe because all the moving around combined with a full winter ball stretch took a toll and there doesn't seem to be a commitment by Brewer brass to give Hernan an everyday job. But if I can get Merrifield in a package with Duffy who I like as much or more than Archer, then if I'm the Brewers I make this offer:

 

Royals get:

 

Brinson

Woodruff

Perez

Ortiz

Diaz

 

Brewers get:

 

Duffy

Merrifield

 

Then I go all out and sign Cain and my 2018 lineup and rotation looks like this:

 

Cain

Merrifield

Shaw

Braun

Thames

Santana

Arcia

Pina/Vogt

 

Infield backups: Sogard, Villar, Aguilar

OF Depth: Phillips

 

Rotation: Anderson, Duffy, Davies, Chacin, one of Guerra, Gallardo, Suter

 

That lineup WAR in 2017 per B-R: 23.9 and everyone is controllable at least through 2019

 

Rotation WAR in 2017 per B-R: 16.2 (Assumes Suter) and everyone other than Gallardo is controllable through at least 2019, with the top 3 all controllable through at least 2020.

 

Trades that big generally don't happen, I'm not going to weigh in on the value of each side.

 

Back to Merrifield, his career minor league numbers are 274/334/403. His 2015/2016 AAA numbers are relatively in line with that...as is his 2016 MLB stat line of 283/323/392. Then all of a sudden he hits 19 dingers in 2017(10 more than his previous high at any level including PCL) and posts 288/324/460. That 460 is dragging his MLB slugging percentage higher than should be expected going forward. Unless this guy packed on some good muscle or something, I doubt he's all of a sudden going to be a 20 hr guy. Maybe 280/330/400 is a more fair expectation for a couple years, that's still at best a 2nd division starter or 1st division utility guy.

 

I think Sogard and Perez are comparable. I'm not going to do a statistical comp of Sogard as the sample is too small for him, but Perez was 259/289/414 last year and 272/302/428 the year prior and is capable of similar stolen base numbers. Perez has a slightly higher K rate and slightly lower BB rate than Merrifield, but he's within 1 percentage point in both categories over the last 2 years. Also Perez is far more versatile than Merrifield as he can play between below average and above average defense at 7 positions depending on the position, while Merrifield can play 2b and corner outfield...maybe 3b or 1b in a pinch but no CF and no SS. If people like Merrifield at 2b, might as well give Perez the everyday job. There's no reason to trade for this guy.

[brewcrewdue80]

Royals get:

 

Brinson

Woodruff

Perez

Ortiz

Diaz

 

Brewers get:

 

Duffy

Merrifield

This is a HUGE overpay and a total win now move. Brinson, Ortiz and Diaz is more than I am willing to pay to get Duffy and I have zero interest in Woodruff for Merrifield especially with Villar/Sogard on the roster and Walker still available.

 

Brinson and Woodruff I'd be considering an overpay, adding all those others? Id expect the Royals to pay 10million a year for what's left on Duffy's contract(not cheap)

Thats a worse trade than a proposal I believe for Archer when stated Sale didnt bring back this kind of haul.