Royals Trading Partners? - Danny Duffy, Whit Merrifield

[Jenkins5]

I think DS is looking for a Young arm who controllable before he trades any Prospcts

 

I am a little confused by the wording of this.... I agree he is looking for young controllable arms first but did you mean before he signs a big price tag FA? There is no other way to get a young controllable arm without giving up a prospect.

 

The Royals are sounding pretty close to going into full rebuild which is kind of heart breaking. Since the Greinke trade they have been my 2nd favorite team to follow. I loved their young core, mix of old Brewers, and of course my fav, Ned Yost. But moving on, I really like Duffy and think he is what our rotation needs much more than Archer or Arrietta. How long can the Brewers continue to avoid left hand starters. Suter will most likely be swing man. Hader is looking more likely to be in pen depending the starters they are able to bring in. Duffy I think is a #2/#3 type talent.

 

Last time Brewers had a full-time lefty in the rotation was 2012 with Randy Wolf. In 2011 they actually had two with Wolf AND Narveson. So the Brewers front office has failed to put a lefty in our rotation for past 5 seasons...that is just mind blowing to me. Every rotation should have at least one. I prefer 2 lefties.

[Eye Black]

Trading for a leadoff hitter that slashes .286/.324/.437/.760

 

No thank you. I'll give Villar another chance then who is younger and has shown flashes of being a very good player.

 

Villar was good for 5 months in 2016. The rest of his career his numbers don't justify his being a regular on a contender. He's got some power, but not enough to justify his high strikeout rate, and his getting on base is part function of his inability to put the ball in play, not because he's got a high degree of patience or great eye at the plate. Throw in his sub-par defense and lapses on the basepaths, and again he wouldn't be in my lineup. I'd take Merrifield in a heartbeat solely on defense and ability to make contact. Plus he can steal a base too and had 19 HR last year. Merrifield was almost a 4 WAR player in 2017 compared to Villar's 0.1 per B-R. A complete no-brainer.

Ken Rosenthal reported that the Brewers have been linked to Whit Merrifield. It would be a gamble in the sense there is the possibility they would be acquiring him at his absolute peak value. I do like the concept of targeting players with a low strike out rate that play above average defense, but worry Merrifield would be a prime candidate to regress for anyone expecting him to be a 3-4 win player moving forward.

[mlloyd10]

Brewers interested in Whit

[3and2Fastball]

Merrifield is the likely target. Duffy and Herrera are too risky considering the price and injury concerns.

 

I personally would not want to give up on Villar. The talent of Villar is huge, he hit well in the last few months of 2017. The Brewers have inside info about Villar that

I of course am not privy to....

[JosephC]

Duffy and Merrifield will get all the mentions but I wouldn't be a bit surprised if Stearns also has interest in players like RHP-Joakim Soria, RHP-Kelvin Herrera, RHP-Jason Hammel, LHP-Scott Alexander.

[pacopete4]

Meh. This will continue to be a dud of an offseason trying to add Whit. I don't get why this is something we are even thinking about doing. I know getting on base isn't the end all but this guy doesn't do it well either.

[JosephC]

Almost have to wonder if Merrifield would be a 30 home run per year player if playing home games at Miller Park. Hit 19 last year and his HR/FB percentage was only 9.4% which is well below league average. I agree with Brew4U in that the OBP is a concern. But he's a middle infielder that certainly looks like he will be a 20+ home run per year hitter. He was a +5 DRS and +0.8 UZR/150 at second base so he's an above average fielder by the metrics. He also played 70 innings in right field, 43 innings in left field and had very brief appearances at 1B and 3B, so he is very versatile defensively. Really the OBP is about the only real concern and .324 definitely isn't horrible when one considers the Brewers had 3 players with 400 at-bats last year that didn't even break the .300 mark.

[pacopete4]

If adding Whit means the end of Perez, I'm all for it. If not, no thanks.

[bill hAll Star]

I'm not a huge fan of Merrifield, but I wonder if taking most or all of Hammel's remaining salary would help facilitate bringing in Merrifield for not much in prospect costs. If nothing else, I think with Hammel's slider that he might be a good reliever if he's open to it later this year or next.

[Warning Track Power]

If adding Whit means the end of Perez, I'm all for it. If not, no thanks.

Perez isn't going anywhere if you listen to interviews with Counsell. Counsell was talking yesterday about how he is in the OF mix and has become the clubhouse leader. Not saying I agree, but I doubt he moves unless someone is willing to overpay for him (which I cannot understand why someone would).

[JosephC]

The more I look at Merrifield and the more I am convinced the price-tag on him should be sky high. Still under control for five years. I really don't understand the Royals motivation for trading him unless they really think that he has been a huge over-achiever so far and his success won't last. But this isn't like a Broxton situation where he looked pretty good for less than a half season. Merrifield is just under 1000 plate appearance and has put up pretty solid offensive numbers for a second baseman.

 

Only thing I really don't like is the lower OBP and that is likely a result of an extremely poor walk rate (4.6% BB). But he looks like a legitimate hitter. .288 batting average and that is with a BABIP of .308 which is right around league average. Maybe the Royals see the power surge as being the fluke number but the HR/FB ratio indicates the 19 home runs are legitimate. Moving forward I would expect the floor for this player to be something like .270/.310/.440/.750 which isn't bad for a second baseman that provides above average defense with the added ability to play all the corner spots. On the flip side, his ceiling could be something like .290/.325/.510/.835.

 

I agree that Merrifield could be dangled as an attempt to unload Hammel's salary. The problem with that is Hammel's salary really isn't out of line for his production, so where it might discount Merrifield I would think that discount would be fairly minimal.

[StearnsFTW]

Yep. Merrifield would be a great get. And I have no idea why they'd trade him.

[pacopete4]

If adding Whit means the end of Perez, I'm all for it. If not, no thanks.

Perez isn't going anywhere if you listen to interviews with Counsell. Counsell was talking yesterday about how he is in the OF mix and has become the clubhouse leader. Not saying I agree, but I doubt he moves unless someone is willing to overpay for him (which I cannot understand why someone would).

 

 

Yeah, it is just wishful thinking. With a guy like Counsell we all have to come to the acceptance that the Perez's and Sogard's of the world will have a place to play ball.

[Jenkins5]

Outside of him not being able to walk much, I think everything else you'd want is there with him.

 

I personally would help Royals rebuild their team again and send good package over to get Duffy and Merrifield. They make us better on two fronts.

[MVP2110]

How real is his power? Looking at his career minor league stats and he's never hit for this much power before? I know his HR/FB Ratio indicates he could actually improve more on his power. Did he make some sort of adjustment where now he is just hitting more balls in the air?

[StearnsFTW]

How real is his power? Looking at his career minor league stats and he's never hit for this much power before? I know his HR/FB Ratio indicates he could actually improve more on his power. Did he make some sort of adjustment where now he is just hitting more balls in the air?

 

He had a really good year in 2014 iso-wise (41 doubles, including 28 at AAA), 2015 seemed to be a lost season all-around, I'm not sure why.

 

Seems to have some Kipnis in him.

 

Edit: His season last year is almost a carbon copy of Kipnis' 2012-2013 seasons minus a few walks.

[Eye Black]

A couple of individuals that write about the team speculate that Missouri native Monte Harrison would be an attractive piece for the Royals...

 

@ClintScoles: If Royals are looking to flip Whit then local guy Monte Harrison would be a nice piece as part of a return. Had a good season last year at 21 in Low-A & High-A then a big Arizona Fall League. Lots of tools in his shed

@RoyalsFarm: We were talking internally about this possibility this morning. Packaging Duffy and Whit and sending them to Milwaukee could net a really, really nice return. Including OF Monte Harrison from Lee’s Summit West High School.

 

@RoyalsFarm: Monte slashed .272/.350/.481/.832 with 21 HR and 27 SB last year between Low and High-A. Just turned 22 in August. Would be a really nice addition for KC if they could bring him home. Brewers may be comfortable trading him since their top 2 prospects are OFers.

 

@RoyalsFarm: Monte would instantly slide into the Royals top 10 prospects. Kid has a chance to be really, really special. Chance he could finish the 2018 season as a 23-year old at AAA.

[mlloyd10]

A couple of individuals that write about the team speculate that Missouri native Monte Harrison would be an attractive piece for the Royals...

 

@ClintScoles: If Royals are looking to flip Whit then local guy Monte Harrison would be a nice piece as part of a return. Had a good season last year at 21 in Low-A & High-A then a big Arizona Fall League. Lots of tools in his shed

@RoyalsFarm: We were talking internally about this possibility this morning. Packaging Duffy and Whit and sending them to Milwaukee could net a really, really nice return. Including OF Monte Harrison from Lee’s Summit West High School.

 

@RoyalsFarm: Monte slashed .272/.350/.481/.832 with 21 HR and 27 SB last year between Low and High-A. Just turned 22 in August. Would be a really nice addition for KC if they could bring him home. Brewers may be comfortable trading him since their top 2 prospects are OFers.

 

@RoyalsFarm: Monte would instantly slide into the Royals top 10 prospects. Kid has a chance to be really, really special. Chance he could finish the 2018 season as a 23-year old at AAA.

 

Harrison/Ecreg/Diplan/Supak for Duffy/Merrifield?

[Mudville9]

A couple of individuals that write about the team speculate that Missouri native Monte Harrison would be an attractive piece for the Royals...

 

@ClintScoles: If Royals are looking to flip Whit then local guy Monte Harrison would be a nice piece as part of a return. Had a good season last year at 21 in Low-A & High-A then a big Arizona Fall League. Lots of tools in his shed

@RoyalsFarm: We were talking internally about this possibility this morning. Packaging Duffy and Whit and sending them to Milwaukee could net a really, really nice return. Including OF Monte Harrison from Lee’s Summit West High School.

 

@RoyalsFarm: Monte slashed .272/.350/.481/.832 with 21 HR and 27 SB last year between Low and High-A. Just turned 22 in August. Would be a really nice addition for KC if they could bring him home. Brewers may be comfortable trading him since their top 2 prospects are OFers.

 

@RoyalsFarm: Monte would instantly slide into the Royals top 10 prospects. Kid has a chance to be really, really special. Chance he could finish the 2018 season as a 23-year old at AAA.

 

Harrison/Ecreg/Diplan/Supak for Duffy/Merrifield?

 

That would be great, but could we take Ercreg out and throw Villar and Jungman in?

[pacopete4]

It would be great to do a deal like this that didn't include BOTH Harrison and Erceg. I'm in the camp that see's Erceg as a breakout contender this year and could be the 3B of our future after Shaw.

[KeithStone53151]

It would be great to do a deal like this that didn't include BOTH Harrison and Erceg. I'm in the camp that see's Erceg as a breakout contender this year and could be the 3B of our future after Shaw.

 

I have no issues trading Harrison in the right deal. I'd rather trade him than Phillips or Brinson. I think Brinson's price tag should be high to the point that he's basically off limits in trade discussions.

 

I also don't really want to trade Erceg, though he's definitely available in the right deal. I think I'd trade to avoid trading him here if I could.

[MVP2110]

In theory what would it take to acquire both? I would think each would require quite a bit alone.

 

Maybe something like Harrison/Dubon/Burnes/C.Herrera would work? Is that too light?

[JosephC]

For both Duffy and Merrifield, I'd guess that the Royals would be looking for something like 80-90 million in prospect surplus value. Since most of the top prospect lists have not been updated, it's hard to even get a real good estimate as to what most of the Brewer prospects would be worth.

 

I'd make the following guesses on players that have been mentioned.

Monte Harrison (#5 in Baseball America update so I'd guess he's just outside of the top 100) = 14.5 million

Lucas Erceg (not top 100 anymore, probably rates as solid Organizational Top 10 Prospect) = 11.45 million

Marcos Diplan (IMO a solid Role Player Prospect) = 5.72 million

Trey Supak (Role Player Prospect) = 5.72 million

Mauricio Dubon (probably falls between Organizational Top 10 Prospect and Role Player Prospect) = 8.6 million

Corbin Burnes (should be a back of the top 100 pitcher) = 17.86 million

Carlos Herrera (Fringe Prospect) = 2.29 million

 

All 7 probably only gets the Brewers about 80% of the way there. I think the Brewers would have to start with Brinson and then add a couple more prospects after him.

 

I firmly believe that Duffy will likely command way more than he is really worth.

[mattyo]

A couple of individuals that write about the team speculate that Missouri native Monte Harrison would be an attractive piece for the Royals...

 

@ClintScoles: If Royals are looking to flip Whit then local guy Monte Harrison would be a nice piece as part of a return. Had a good season last year at 21 in Low-A & High-A then a big Arizona Fall League. Lots of tools in his shed

@RoyalsFarm: We were talking internally about this possibility this morning. Packaging Duffy and Whit and sending them to Milwaukee could net a really, really nice return. Including OF Monte Harrison from Lee’s Summit West High School.

 

@RoyalsFarm: Monte slashed .272/.350/.481/.832 with 21 HR and 27 SB last year between Low and High-A. Just turned 22 in August. Would be a really nice addition for KC if they could bring him home. Brewers may be comfortable trading him since their top 2 prospects are OFers.

 

@RoyalsFarm: Monte would instantly slide into the Royals top 10 prospects. Kid has a chance to be really, really special. Chance he could finish the 2018 season as a 23-year old at AAA.

 

Harrison/Ecreg/Diplan/Supak for Duffy/Merrifield?

 

0% chance that the Royals accept that deal.

[TJseven7]

I feel like the asking price is too high here. Merrifield gets to the majors at 27. Does well but isn't a top of the order batter because his obp sucks. He's very solid. He's 5 year controlled in the spot Huira and Diaz are expected to take over and are expected to outperform merrifield. He's controlled but 5 years put him at 33?

 

God help me for saying this but if this guys what we want why did we toss scooter? If we trade multiple prospects for him I will not be happy.

 

Duffy is good. He's the type I'd be after... but why pay prospects for a guy who costs 60 mil over the next 4. Buy one. He's a value but he doesn't pitch ace innings. He's worth his deal... is it just to get a lefty.

 

I mean if you guys aren't vastly overrating the pieces it would take to get these 2 count me out.