Royals Trading Partners? - Danny Duffy, Whit Merrifield

[mlloyd10]

Whats concerning about Duffy is his average FB was 2 MPH slower last year than in 2016 and while his FIP was good ( 3.46), his xFIP was almost a full run higher (4.39)

 

I view Duffy as a good #3 starter.

 

One website that i use and is really good has him as the 40th best SP next year.

[jerichoholicninja]

Whats concerning about Duffy is his average FB was 2 MPH slower last year than in 2016 and while his FIP was good ( 3.46), his xFIP was almost a full run higher (4.39)

 

I view Duffy as a good #3 starter.

 

One website that i use and is really good has him as the 40th best SP next year.

 

In theory, that makes him a clear #2.

[JohnBriggs12]

Whats concerning about Duffy is his average FB was 2 MPH slower last year than in 2016 and while his FIP was good ( 3.46), his xFIP was almost a full run higher (4.39)

 

I view Duffy as a good #3 starter.

 

One website that i use and is really good has him as the 40th best SP next year.

 

In theory, that makes him a clear #2.

 

Only in theory would a guy who only once logged more than 150 innings and never made more than 26 starts be a #2. He's got some value but part of what KC would be getting back is a pretty substantial salary obligation off their books. He's a realistic target though and Brewers have the chips to get him though I'm inclined to hold on to Burnes.

[KeithStone53151]

Whats concerning about Duffy is his average FB was 2 MPH slower last year than in 2016 and while his FIP was good ( 3.46), his xFIP was almost a full run higher (4.39)

 

I view Duffy as a good #3 starter.

 

One website that i use and is really good has him as the 40th best SP next year.

 

In theory, that makes him a clear #2.

 

Only in theory would a guy who only once logged more than 150 innings and never made more than 26 starts be a #2. He's got some value but part of what KC would be getting back is a pretty substantial salary obligation off their books. He's a realistic target though and Brewers have the chips to get him though I'm inclined to hold on to Burnes.

 

I would think going after Duffy or a long term SP option likely means Burnes is included in the package. We have 4 slots filled, Duffy would make 5, Nelson's return would make 6. Obviously injuries happen, but that doesn't leave room for Burnes. And that's not even to speak of Ortiz/Peralta who could be ready by end of year.

[RockCoCougars]

It looks like the Brewers may have actually drafted a good pitching prospect in Burnes. I would be irate if they traded him for Danny Duffy straight up.

[BrewCrewBlueDevil]

Ortiz, Woodruff and Harrison for Duffy and Alexander. We get a SP and a LHP that allows Hader a chance for a starting spot. The Royals get a cheap starter, a future starter and a wild card.

[superfly]

No thanks...why are we trading decent prospects for a middle rotation guy? We can buy those all day long with our payroll and keep all these prospects. If we're going this route i'd rather get a guy like Manaea who is probably similar trajectory with some upside possibilities but only 25, giving up a bit more.

 

You get what you pay for in life.

[Jenkins5]

I’m still mindblown how Archer is not a Top of rotation guy when he has finished in top 10 twice in past three seasons....Sits 96, Ks 10+ per 9 & keeps FIP in the 3.40 range. Is he kluber or Kershaw? No but only like 4-5 guys in baseball are. He is right there in that next tier though.

 

I think Duffy is clear step down from Archer. Archer will get you 2+ WAR a season & a down season for him is a career year type for Duffy who has topped out at 3.2 WAR. Think he is better option however for the Brewers. We need LHP bad. He will great in middle of our rotation. Slot in at 2 with Hader at 5 would be stellar! Get two lefties out there for first time in forever.

 

Cons

Was rough August on for him. First, volocity was at career low. 1mph below average & 2mph lower than 2016. Match that with his elbow issue he dealt with & had surgery on last month. Brewers & bad elbows usually aren’t great for use with pitchers.... Last getting a DUI at 7:30pm at a Burger King isn’t outstanding lol but we are in Wisconsin soooo.... can’t hold it against him too much.

 

He won’t cost Brinson which is nice but with Lo Cain prob walking....CF could be important priority for them moving forward. Assuming a high level arm as well. Think with the elbow, you try to get him a little cheaper. Don’t think it will work though

[JohnBriggs12]

The Royals could use flippable guys like Junior Guerra and Hernan Perez or Villar as they would have opportunities for a rebuilding club. Perez or Villar could conceivably take over their SS position with the expected departure of Escobar and Guerra could take an open rotation spot. So include them with say Harrison and Ortiz.

[JosephC]

I don't think the drop in velocity and surgery impacts Duffy's value at all. Very minor procedure to just remove some bone chips. It was reported that he'd just be shut down for 6 weeks and the surgery would not impact his off-season routine at all. Elbow should be good and the velocity should be back.

 

I don't think there is any chance that he is valued at less than a 3 WAR player and if so the asking price will be pretty large. The Ortiz/Woodruff/Harrison for Duffy/Alexander suggestion from BrewCrewBlueDevil probably isn't too far off the mark. Brinson would not be included, but 3 top 10 organizational prospects with 2 of those 3 as back end top 100 prospects (or maybe 1 or those 2 barely outside the top 100) seems about right.

[brewcrewdue80]

How is it we want to give up a ton for Danny Duffy making 14mil or more the next 4 years, versus signing Lance Lynn to less and keep our prospects? In a year where velocity was higher for many, his was lower across the board.

Duffy also, has never had 30+ starts in a season, something Lynn does every year.

[Warning Track Power]

How is it we want to give up a ton for Danny Duffy making 14mil or more the next 4 years, versus signing Lance Lynn to less and keep our prospects? In a year where velocity was higher for many, his was lower across the board.

Duffy also, has never had 30+ starts in a season, something Lynn does every year.

This pretty much sums up opinion on most of the options available via trade. I would prefer to overpay an Arrieta-type and keep the prospects in the system. If Arrieta fails, while you still have the burden of the contract, you still have Ortiz or Burnes or Pennington or Peralta or...that could fill in.

[KeithStone53151]

How is it we want to give up a ton for Danny Duffy making 14mil or more the next 4 years, versus signing Lance Lynn to less and keep our prospects? In a year where velocity was higher for many, his was lower across the board.

Duffy also, has never had 30+ starts in a season, something Lynn does every year.

 

This is a good point. That's part of why I think it will be tough to trade Duffy. It doesn't make sense for the Royals to give him away for salary relief, but I'm not sure how many teams are going to give up substantial prospects to pay a mid rotation starter a market value contract.

 

There are only so many pitchers available though and many teams that need pitching, and there's no guarantee he's even willing to come to Milwaukee. It's also no guarantee that Lynn signs for less, the market for SP may push his salary higher than it might have been last year or 2 years ago. Duffy might be a guy that teams look at that miss out on the Lynn/Cobb tier, that makes the most sense to me. I'd consider him getting traded at all this year to be unlikely.

[TURBO]

How is it we want to give up a ton for Danny Duffy making 14mil or more the next 4 years, versus signing Lance Lynn to less and keep our prospects? In a year where velocity was higher for many, his was lower across the board.

Duffy also, has never had 30+ starts in a season, something Lynn does every year.

This pretty much sums up opinion on most of the options available via trade. I would prefer to overpay an Arrieta-type and keep the prospects in the system. If Arrieta fails, while you still have the burden of the contract, you still have Ortiz or Burnes or Pennington or Peralta or...that could fill in.

 

This is exactly how I feel. I'd much rather over pay a free agent, then overpay with our prospects in a trade.

[brewcrewdue80]

How is it we want to give up a ton for Danny Duffy making 14mil or more the next 4 years, versus signing Lance Lynn to less and keep our prospects? In a year where velocity was higher for many, his was lower across the board.

Duffy also, has never had 30+ starts in a season, something Lynn does every year.

 

This is a good point. That's part of why I think it will be tough to trade Duffy. It doesn't make sense for the Royals to give him away for salary relief, but I'm not sure how many teams are going to give up substantial prospects to pay a mid rotation starter a market value contract.

 

There are only so many pitchers available though and many teams that need pitching, and there's no guarantee he's even willing to come to Milwaukee. It's also no guarantee that Lynn signs for less, the market for SP may push his salary higher than it might have been last year or 2 years ago. Duffy might be a guy that teams look at that miss out on the Lynn/Cobb tier, that makes the most sense to me. I'd consider him getting traded at all this year to be unlikely.

 

Well, I believe the projection is for Lynn to get a 4/48 to 56mil contract which is less than 59.75 that Duffy is owed. Even if it's 4/60 I'd take that over giving up the likes of Burnes/Harrison. Or the Villar or Perez with Harrison and Ortiz.

 

I like Woodruff, also there's Hader. Without Nelson, making a big move in trade doesn't make sense to me. Just sign yourself a FA give these AA SPs a chance to grow the ML starters and for once, fill your rotation with Homegrown guys. I mean fwiw, Tyler Chatwood away from Coors may be better than Duffy and even guys like Arrieta. 62 Games started away from Coors 3.31ERA. I'd think he'd be a guy willing to sign a 1yr with option deal and look to become a FA again as he turns 29 or 30.

 

Man, reading Chatwood's Fangraphs stats, his Velocity was up, the last 2 seasons he induced over a 57% GB rate!

He'll be 28 for all of '18 so this past year was a Prime year. Appears to have gotten better with a Curve Ball and thrown more this season as a 3rd pitch. I'm beginning to think I've been chiming for the wrong guy. He also doesn't come with a QO attached.

 

Mr. Stearns if you have contacts that read this forum, Please go sign Tyler Chatwood!

[wallus]

A lot of people on here have been chiming for Tyler Chatwood....

[Madhawk23]

I think the points about overspending on a F/A or two instead of trading away our prospects for a guy like Duffy are probably all good ones. I agree that I'd rather hold onto as many of our prospects as we can, unless if you can use a few of them to go out and get a TOR type guy that you'd control for 3-4 years. In looking at Duffy's numbers, he clearly is not that type of a TOR guy.

[Devinep]

Combining Duffy with Whit Merrifeld would make for an interesting trade. The Brewers could deal an OF from the surplus and a good (but not Burnes-Esque) Pitching prospect. They’d get the pitcher and lead off 2B they need for next year

[pacopete4]

Trading for a leadoff hitter that slashes .286/.324/.437/.760

 

No thank you. I'll give Villar another chance then who is younger and has shown flashes of being a very good player.

[reillymcshane]

As people have noted, the trouble with Duffy is that you can get comparable skills in free agency at a similar price (4-years, $50-60M) - Lance Lynn, Alex Cobb - for instance. But with the free agents the only thing you're giving up is a draft pick in the 70-75 range. That's a lot more doable than whatever prospect haul you're going to send to KC for Duffy.

 

I will say that I think Duffy is a little better than Lynn or Cobb (I'm very wary of Lynn) - but not by a ton.

[Devinep]

Trading for a leadoff hitter that slashes .286/.324/.437/.760

 

No thank you. I'll give Villar another chance then who is younger and has shown flashes of being a very good player.

 

Yep definitely pulled a Roger Clemens and “misremembered” that number

[JosephC]

The "market" really doesn't start for Duffy until Lynn and perhaps Cobb have signed. For starter needy teams that lose out on those pitchers (and I would expect there would be at least a half dozen), Duffy looks to be one of the better starters out there that could potentially be acquired.

[brewmann04]

I think DS is looking for a Young arm who controllable before he trades any Prospcts

[JohnBriggs12]

Trading for a leadoff hitter that slashes .286/.324/.437/.760

 

No thank you. I'll give Villar another chance then who is younger and has shown flashes of being a very good player.

 

Villar was good for 5 months in 2016. The rest of his career his numbers don't justify his being a regular on a contender. He's got some power, but not enough to justify his high strikeout rate, and his getting on base is part function of his inability to put the ball in play, not because he's got a high degree of patience or great eye at the plate. Throw in his sub-par defense and lapses on the basepaths, and again he wouldn't be in my lineup. I'd take Merrifield in a heartbeat solely on defense and ability to make contact. Plus he can steal a base too and had 19 HR last year. Merrifield was almost a 4 WAR player in 2017 compared to Villar's 0.1 per B-R. A complete no-brainer.

[brewcrewdue80]

Trading for a leadoff hitter that slashes .286/.324/.437/.760

 

No thank you. I'll give Villar another chance then who is younger and has shown flashes of being a very good player.

 

Agreed. Merrifield essentially hit as best as he's shown in the Minors. Most likely due for a regression which BRef has to

.279 .324 .435 .759 and only 21 SBs. I'd fear that the team acquired a Villar type swoon in batting albeit with the less K's it's not as bad, but doesn't come with the ceiling Villar posted in '16.

 

FWIW, this is Villar projection on BWAR: .268 .338 .430 .768.