Royals Trading Partners? - Danny Duffy, Whit Merrifield

[billymac]

They had a 2017 payroll of 149M and will be losing most of their core to Free agency, losing the following players:

Melky Cabrera

Jason Vargas

Alcides Escobar

Lorenzo Cain

Mike Moustakas

Eric Hosmer

Trevor Cahill

 

Even after possibly losing all these players to free agency, they will have a committed payroll of 100M for 2018.

 

If they do decide to tear it down and look for cheap controllable talent, a target that I'd be interested in is Danny Duffy. He's controlled through 2021 and could be a top lefty for the Brewers rotation. He's pitched very good the last 2 seasons since joining their rotation producing FIP's of 3.51 and 3.81 and WAR of 2.7 and 3.4.

 

He is owed about $15M/year through 2021. We do have controllable pieces that could interest them in the OF and Inf as they lose most of their core players in Villar who could play SS for them and Broxton/Santana. We also have the farm system to add lower level pieces to a possible trade.

 

Another piece that would fit wonderfully at the top of the order and at 2B is Whit Merrifield, but I don't think he'd be going anywhere.

[JohnBriggs12]

Royals are said to be hoping to retain at least one or two of their FA. Dealing Duffy might give them some salary room to keep a Hosmer or a Moustakis. I think they'd want a pitcher with a decent ceiling back in the deal. Ortiz maybe? There's no way they deal Merrifield. Yeah Mondesi is waiting in the wings at 2B, but no doubt Merrifield will move to another position to make room. Merrifield is a core player for them now.

[reillymcshane]

If the Royals put Duffy on the market, he's going to fetch a ton. Cost controlled, young, good. That's a big price - maybe not quite Jimenez-like in return, but very high.

[brewcrewdue80]

I'd pause on Duffy due to this:

 

https://www.rotoballer.com/player-news/danny-duffy-has-surgery/417333

 

Loose bodies in his elbow? A pitcher who's never started more than 26 in a season and paid well now with loose bodies in his elbow? Find it hard to value that. You'd have to have concerns to a future TJ potential which with recovery he's in his 30s making 15+ a year and was down for over 1 season's of games.

[trwi7]

If the Royals put Duffy on the market, he's going to fetch a ton. Cost controlled, young, good. That's a big price - maybe not quite Jimenez-like in return, but very high.

 

29 is young?

[jerichoholicninja]

If the Royals put Duffy on the market, he's going to fetch a ton. Cost controlled, young, good. That's a big price - maybe not quite Jimenez-like in return, but very high.

 

29 is young?

 

I was thinking that too. It's not "young" but certainly younger than most free agents. Also, not sure who the Jimnenz is that was mentioned.

[bill hAll Star]

If the Royals put Duffy on the market, he's going to fetch a ton. Cost controlled, young, good. That's a big price - maybe not quite Jimenez-like in return, but very high.

 

29 is young?

 

It's young enough for a guy that is known to be good. I'll wait for your 2 page post about the prime of pitchers, but if his elbow holds up, having him until age 33 isn't terrible.

 

Back to the original point, it's a transaction board, but it is a bit of a tired trend. "Team A wants to rebuild, maybe they want to shed salary and give us their All Star caliber player for cheap spare parts."

 

This one didn't use "shed salary" but if they're rebuilding, Villar and Broxton don't do a ton for them. If they're trading Duffy, it's for guys that won't hit the majors until 2019/2020 and it's for stud prospects.

 

Most owners will ride their high payroll into the ground rather than just give guys with a high salary away. The Tigers waited it out with Verlander and got something substantial. If it doesn't work out, the rebuilding teams will just sit on the salaries because they won't be active in free agency so in 1-2 years their payroll will be 2017 Brewers-esque and almost clean as a whistle.

 

Anyways, not shooting the messenger as I've posted dumb trade ideas as well, but salary dumps are few-and-far-between unless an owner is in financial trouble or some crazy situation like the BoSox/Dodgers deal several years ago.

[bill hAll Star]

If the Royals put Duffy on the market, he's going to fetch a ton. Cost controlled, young, good. That's a big price - maybe not quite Jimenez-like in return, but very high.

 

29 is young?

 

I was thinking that too. It's not "young" but certainly younger than most free agents. Also, not sure who the Jimnenz is that was mentioned.

 

Probably Ubaldo. Not sure if they totally compare, though.

[reillymcshane]

If the Royals put Duffy on the market, he's going to fetch a ton. Cost controlled, young, good. That's a big price - maybe not quite Jimenez-like in return, but very high.

 

29 is young?

 

I was thinking that too. It's not "young" but certainly younger than most free agents. Also, not sure who the Jimnenz is that was mentioned.

Yeah, he's not necessarily 'young', as you note, but he's younger than most players of his type that are available. The big thing is that you are getting a guy for ages 29-32 - which is still pretty 'young' for a quality starting pitcher.

 

Guys like Duffy aren't generally available quite yet in free agency or via trade. Teams just lock up these guys early and keep them off the market. And when they are made available for trade, it's like the Sale deal last year or the Quintana this summer - a team in obvious rebuild mode looking to restock their farm system. There's just not that many 'youngish' players on the market. And the price will be high, because KC (or any team) can wait out the market if necessary - just like Chicago did for Quintana.

[KeithStone53151]

 

29 is young?

 

It's young enough for a guy that is known to be good. I'll wait for your 2 page post about the prime of pitchers, but if his elbow holds up, having him until age 33 isn't terrible.

 

Back to the original point, it's a transaction board, but it is a bit of a tired trend. "Team A wants to rebuild, maybe they want to shed salary and give us their All Star caliber player for cheap spare parts."

 

This one didn't use "shed salary" but if they're rebuilding, Villar and Broxton don't do a ton for them. If they're trading Duffy, it's for guys that won't hit the majors until 2019/2020 and it's for stud prospects.

 

Most owners will ride their high payroll into the ground rather than just give guys with a high salary away. The Tigers waited it out with Verlander and got something substantial. If it doesn't work out, the rebuilding teams will just sit on the salaries because they won't be active in free agency so in 1-2 years their payroll will be 2017 Brewers-esque and almost clean as a whistle.

 

Anyways, not shooting the messenger as I've posted dumb trade ideas as well, but salary dumps are few-and-far-between unless an owner is in financial trouble or some crazy situation like the BoSox/Dodgers deal several years ago.

 

I don't think it's entirely true about them not wanting either Villar or Broxton necessarily. The Brewers were in rebuild mode, yet traded Jason Rogers for Keon Broxton and a prospect, putting Broxton in CF at an advanced age when he wouldn't be part of the core. It's absolutely possible the Royals could be interested in either guy as a bounce-back candidate, with Broxton being more likely. Most GM's aren't that narrow-minded where they will only be interested in one specific form of value.

 

With that said, it's reasonable to look at the quintana trade when looking at what Duffy might fetch. But Quintana is better and his contract is much more team friendly. Duffy's contract is more expensive and fully guaranteed. Quintana has 1 guaranteed year with 2 options years that have minimal buyouts. So, if Quintana blows out his arm in 2018 or 2019...the cubs can wiggle off the hook. If Duffy blows out his arms, sorry guys...pay me my 15M per. And then you take the whole "loose bodies in the elbow" thing into consideration and it's very clear Quintana should be valued much higher than Duffy.

 

If both parties were interested, I think the Brewers would try to include one of Broxton/Ray in the trade, a pitcher from the Ponce/Diplan/Supak caliber, and a hitter in the Gatewood/Nottingham/Harrison range. The Royals would probably try to push for one of Burnes/Ortiz along with Broxton/Ray...which is reasonable but I would hope we say no to.

[billymac]

If the Royals put Duffy on the market, he's going to fetch a ton. Cost controlled, young, good. That's a big price - maybe not quite Jimenez-like in return, but very high.

 

29 is young?

 

It's young enough for a guy that is known to be good. I'll wait for your 2 page post about the prime of pitchers, but if his elbow holds up, having him until age 33 isn't terrible.

 

Back to the original point, it's a transaction board, but it is a bit of a tired trend. "Team A wants to rebuild, maybe they want to shed salary and give us their All Star caliber player for cheap spare parts."

 

This one didn't use "shed salary" but if they're rebuilding, Villar and Broxton don't do a ton for them. If they're trading Duffy, it's for guys that won't hit the majors until 2019/2020 and it's for stud prospects.

 

Most owners will ride their high payroll into the ground rather than just give guys with a high salary away. The Tigers waited it out with Verlander and got something substantial. If it doesn't work out, the rebuilding teams will just sit on the salaries because they won't be active in free agency so in 1-2 years their payroll will be 2017 Brewers-esque and almost clean as a whistle.

 

Anyways, not shooting the messenger as I've posted dumb trade ideas as well, but salary dumps are few-and-far-between unless an owner is in financial trouble or some crazy situation like the BoSox/Dodgers deal several years ago.

 

I wouldn't consider Villar and Broxton spare parts. Villar produced 3.1 WAR in 2016, arguably our teams MVP in 2016 at SS and is controllable for the next 3 years. Broxton produced 2.1 WAR in 2016 and is controllable through 2022 and had a very good second half in 2016 that showed what he is capable of.

 

The Royals traded Wade Davis to the Cubs for Jorge Soler who produced .6 WAR in 2016 in a half a season and Dayton Moore said that he was interested in more controllable pieces in trades knowing he might lose half his team after this season.

 

All I'm saying with this proposal is that they are possibly losing alot of core players this offseason. If they want look at the 2016 versions of both of these guys who could fill their CF and SS void, it could pique their interest. I wouldn't expect them to give Duffy away for these two which I never said, we would need to throw in some other pieces and I'd assume one of our top minor arms would be going with.

 

If they Royals do decide to go the young and controllable route, Danny Duffy would be just like Chris Sale and Quintana were to the White Sox last year, a good trade chip to bolster their young team.

 

If Duffy's surgery didn't cure the loose bodies in his elbow, then he would be a terrible investment, but if it does, I'd be all for acquiring him.

[bill hAll Star]

I wouldn't consider Villar and Broxton spare parts. Villar produced 3.1 WAR in 2016, arguably our teams MVP in 2016 at SS and is controllable for the next 3 years. Broxton produced 2.1 WAR in 2016 and is controllable through 2022 and had a very good second half in 2016 that showed what he is capable of.

 

The Royals traded Wade Davis to the Cubs for Jorge Soler who produced .6 WAR in 2016 in a half a season and Dayton Moore said that he was interested in more controllable pieces in trades knowing he might lose half his team after this season.

 

All I'm saying with this proposal is that they are possibly losing alot of core players this offseason. If they want look at the 2016 versions of both of these guys who could fill their CF and SS void, it could pique their interest. I wouldn't expect them to give Duffy away for these two which I never said, we would need to throw in some other pieces and I'd assume one of our top minor arms would be going with.

 

If they Royals do decide to go the young and controllable route, Danny Duffy would be just like Chris Sale and Quintana were to the White Sox last year, a good trade chip to bolster their young team.

 

If Duffy's surgery didn't cure the loose bodies in his elbow, then he would be a terrible investment, but if it does, I'd be all for acquiring him.

 

The issue is that if the Royals are going to sign one of their free agents and try to win again in 2018, they'd be cutting off their nose to spite their face by trading Duffy.

 

If they're rebuilding, some lower-cost everyday players aren't the best option. Broxton and Villar are likely taking a 75 win team to 78 wins. Maybe Villar returns to 2016 form and they win 80, but not very likely. If they're trading Duffy, it's probably because they're throwing in the towel for 2 years.

 

The Soler/Davis trade was a bit different. At the time, the Royals thought that maybe they could do a bit to win now and a bit for the future to extend their window. They were hoping Soler would be ready to be an MLB player. He failed on both accounts as I don't think the future is too bring for him. Davis was also an impending free agent after 2017, so his value was not so high. Duffy, while $15 million seems like a lot, is a bargain if he pitches as well as he has the past 2 years.

 

I think even if they traded him for more "win now" type players, Broxton and Villar isn't enough. Maybe Santana helps.

[Madhawk23]

Speaking of a trade idea with the Royals, did anyone see the following proposal:

 

https://reviewingthebrew.com/2017/10/12/milwaukee-brewers-perfect-trade-royals/

 

Thoughts on this? Personally, I don't see any way that the Royals would make a trade like this. Not sure why they'd be motivated to move a young, controllable 2B for two guys in (Villar and Broxton) who have been wildly inconsistent so far in their first two years with the Brewers. I think we'd probably have to throw in another prospect to this deal - maybe an Isan Diaz?

[bill hAll Star]

I'd be all over that trade and I think Merrifield is a massive regression candidate. That trade would basically be Merrifield vs. Villar. Is Merrifield really this good and is Villar really that bad? The rest are spare/AAAA parts probably. I like Broxton but he's a platoon hitter on the wrong side of it. Skoglund has some potential but probably isn't going to be much more than a back-end starter.

[JosephC]

Danny Duffy...If I'm the Royals I'd start by asking for Brinson and Hader for Duffy and would expect that to get shot down. In the end the minimum I would take to move Duffy would be Isan Diaz, Josh Hader and Brandon Woodruff.

 

reviewingthebrew.com article...What motivation would the Royals have to trade for two guys that both had sub-.300 OBP's and sub-.720 OPS's and bad defensive metrics (OK, Villar was a +1 DRS while playing 2b) in 2017?

[TURBO]

In the end the minimum I would take to move Duffy would be Isan Diaz, Josh Hader and Brandon Woodruff.

 

 

Ummmmm..................NO!

[brewcrewdue80]

^^^^^ What agreed NO! Duffy isn't worth a single one of those 3 much all three!!

 

Jorge Lopez and Phil Bickford. Or else move on. You got a guy making basically 15mil who's imo a 3.75+ERA type. Hader and Woodruff should be as good and near future better than that making peanuts.

[KeithStone53151]

^^^^^ What agreed NO! Duffy isn't worth a single one of those 3 much all three!!

 

Jorge Lopez and Phil Bickford. Or else move on. You got a guy making basically 15mil who's imo a 3.75+ERA type. Hader and Woodruff should be as good and near future better than that making peanuts.

 

I'd have to agree I wouldn't trade any of those prospects for Duffy. I might trade Diaz and a couple lower level guys if I got back a good reliever as well. Any talk of trading Hader away at this point, in any deal outside of a few truly elite players on reasonable contracts, is nonsense.

 

With all that said, KC isn't going to give a way a productive SP on the right side of 30 for scrap heap players. Bickford might be able to rebound, but Lopez at this point is likely middle relief. KC would likely want one solid prospect/player in return along with a sweetener or two.

[OnaBadger58]

If the Royals put Duffy on the market, he's going to fetch a ton. Cost controlled, young, good. That's a big price - maybe not quite Jimenez-like in return, but very high.

 

I was thinking that too. It's not "young" but certainly younger than most free agents. Also, not sure who the Jimnenz is that was mentioned.

 

Probably Ubaldo. Not sure if they totally compare, though.

I think he meant giving up players like Eloy Jimenez.

[Madhawk23]

Now that it seems official that the Royals are entering a rebuild, what would it take to get Danny Duffy? Would everyone put him a notch below a Archer or Stroman? You'd have four years of control of the guy, but he also hasn't put up ridiculous numbers either thus far in his career. Solid numbers, but not any that jump off the page at you. 2014 and 2016 were good years, but then his numbers fell back a bit in 2015 and 2017. Would you give up a Burnes/Harrison package for someone like Duffy, or is that too much/too little?

 

Anyone else on that Royals team that you'd like to see the Brewers make a run at?

[TURBO]

No offense to the OP, but why does every trade scenario that we throw out there have to include Harrison and Burnes?

[Warning Track Power]

No offense to the OP, but why does every trade scenario that we throw out there have to include Harrison and Burnes?

Because it likely is the realistic starting point for what it will take to get a TOR pitcher. Whether it's Archer and TB, Duffy and KC or Stroman and Toronto, if I were a GM of any of those teams, those two are at the top of my interest list and are almost mandatory in any trade discussions.

[KeithStone53151]

He's a notch below them from a talent/results standpoint, more injury risk, and $. He has 4 years, $60 million left on his deal. He's also only entering his age 29 season, so we'd be paying him through age 32. I don't hate the idea of pursuing Duffy, but doing so takes a rotation spot away from the next crop of starters coming up(Burnes/Ortiz/Peralta). I would be more inclined to make a run at Duffy if we could also get Herrera in a package deal. Making a run at Duffy likely would mean dealing one of those 3 arms. I don't think I want to go that route, it depends on the specific package. I'm not super familiar with Duffy though, I'm curious other opinions on him.

[Madhawk23]

No offense to the OP, but why does every trade scenario that we throw out there have to include Harrison and Burnes?

Because it likely is the realistic starting point for what it will take to get a TOR pitcher. Whether it's Archer and TB, Duffy and KC or Stroman and Toronto, if I were a GM of any of those teams, those two are at the top of my interest list and are almost mandatory in any trade discussions.

 

Exactly why I threw their names in there to start the discussion. I guess my feeling is: if we want to try to hold onto Brinson, then we probably have to give up a guy like Harrison instead. And, if we want to trade for a potential TOR starter, then I'm guessing we'll have to throw our best pitching prospect in the deal as well - which is why I included Burnes. Honestly though, I'm not sure if I'm willing to give up two big pieces like this for Duffy? I'd probably do it for Archer or Stroman, but I'm not crazy about what I'm seeing with Duffy's numbers.

[TURBO]

I don't view Duffy or Archer as TOR guys, so I wouldn't be interested in trading any of those guys for either of them...