Player updates

[clancyphile]

One other question for Ohio Scout:

 

How much should we focus on talent as opposed to a "max effort" player?

 

I'm asking this because we can look at someone like Shane Nance (www.brewerfan.net/ViewPla...ayerId=354 ), who racked up pretty good - almost dominating numbers - in the minors as a reliever. The numbers, in fact, have had me suggesting that the Brewers should see if he could work out as a back-of-the-rotation starter.

 

Similarly, to bring up another point of confusion, Jeff Pickler's consistent numbers (A July, 2001 article I wrote is at www.brewerfan.net/fullArt...ticleId=23 ) in the Brewers system from 1999 through 2001 had me convinced that he should have had an opportunity to win the second base job in Milwaukee as opposed to being exposed in the Rule V draft at the end of 2001 (he's now in the Texas farm system, performing at roughly the same level he did in the Brewers system).

 

How much credit should a "max effort" player get for the "max effort"? How much talent would warrant leaving a "max effort" player behind?

[OhioScout]

#1 - I admit to liking statistics for high level college players. I don't think that I, nor other scouts, really care much about stats in high school or DII programs. When it comes down to it you have to project players out professionally and present-day tools, projectability, and skills are what make most of the difference. That's what really matters when looking at amateurs.

 

#2 - I'm not sure I quite understand what you're trying to convey with "max effort" players. To me, effort is how much effort a player puts into his play on the field. Mark Prior does not break a sweat -- very little effort. Someone like, say, Chris Snelling gets hurt a lot because he plays with so much effort to compensate for a lack of physical tools.

 

I think that you mean how much effort someone puts in off the field it depends on organizational philosophy. Drafting talented players that don't want to work off the field isn't a good idea. If you draft hard workers that can't play you get very little and no trade value. There is a ton of grey area with this subject and I don't think I can really answer it. You've gotta have a good mixture. One side more heavily weighted towards the other isn't good. When you draft players, most scouts look at the talent and hope for a maturation process which often comes around.

[clancyphile]

Your definition of effort was close to what I had in mind, and it answered my questions.

 

Thanks.

[colbyjack]

As cress already noted, Florida State ended Sleeth's record unbeaten streak. Too bad, as you would like to see Sleeth beat one of the tougher teams in the nation. His line on the game:

 

8 IP, 11 H, 6 ER, 8 K, 6 BB, 2.25 ERA on the year

 

Brad Sullivan also got knocked around pretty hard.

 

5.2 IP, 4 H, 3 ER, 5 K, 6 BB, 2.27 ERA on the year

 

Both uncharacteristically gave up a lot of walks.

 

Kyle Bakker, who is one Katuluu's, Toby's & my hopeful favorites to fall to our 2nd round pick, won his 5th game yesterday:

 

6 IP, 5 H, 3 ER, 3 K, 1 BB, 4.29 ERA on the year

 

Bakker needs to pick his game back up, as he's been giving up a lot of runs recently despite being 5-0.

 

Tim Stauffer has probably been the most impressive pitcher statistically this season, however his most recent win came against Rhode Island. He tossed his 4th consecutive CG (7 innings as part of a DH) & struck out 11 batters. He is now the all-time strikeout leader at Richmond. His line on the year:

 

1.90 ERA, 52 IP, 79 K, 54 H, 6 BB

 

He doesn't have the pure stuff of Sleeth or Sullivan, but he sets up hitters perfectly & has outstanding command that allows him to go deep in ballgames every time he's out there. The 6 walks in 52 innings of work is enough to strongly consider drafting him 2nd overall. If Loewen signs with the Orioles & Weeks goes #1 overall, Stauffer is turning into my favorite to be our first round pick.

 

Adam Loewen, from last Wednesday:

 

6 IP, 6 H, 2 ER, 11 K, 2 BB

 

He's starting to give up more runs, hits & walks in recent outings, but still is pretty much dominating the competition. He also has gotten really hot at the plate. The importance of the Friday night starter must not be as great at the JC level since Loewen is now pitching in the middle of the week.

 

Rickie Weeks' stats should be updated within the next couple of days.

[colbyjack]

Your weekly Rickie Weeks update...

 

.510/.611/.980 in 102 ABs-11 2B, 5 3B, 9 HR, 25 BB, 10 K, 18 for 18 in SBs.

 

Just 8 ABs this past week, adding a triple, 4 walks & 2 stolen bases.

[colbyjack]

Cress already filled us in on Sleeth & Stauffer on separate threads. Here's Adam Loewen's most recent line:

 

8 IP, 3 H, 2 ER, 7 K, 4 BB

[MassBrew]

Brewerfan's # 5 high school product, Massachusetts' RHP Jeff Allison, made his season debut only on Monday, just another indication of the disadvantage kids from northern climates are at in the overall development process. Probably a moot point here in terms of Brewer interest, since Allison will certainly fall by mid-way in the first round, but doesn't really qualify as a Top Two pick:

 

Most eyes were on Jeff Allison, a senior pitcher who is regarded by Baseball America as one of the top pitching prospects in the country. Yesterday, he guided visiting Peabody to a 7-0 win over Greater Boston League rival Everett.

 

Allison's pitching line read 7 innings, 2 hits, 0 earned runs, 1 walk, and 17 strikeouts. He also helped himself out at the plate, breaking up a 1-0 game in the fifth by hitting a grand slam.

 

''Every time he pitches this year he'll have an entourage of scouts watching,'' Peabody coach Ed Nizwantowski said. ''Today, he had 23 scouts there and they had him clocked at 94 miles per hour.''

[colbyjack]

Thanks MassBrew. Allison's another guy similar to Delmon Young & Lastings Milledge that seems to be sliding, or has slid in rankings because he has been on the scene longer than others. A few prep pitcher in Jared Hughes & Andrew Miller jumped ahead of Allison over the winter with strong showings in showcases & tournaments, while Allison has been going out & proving his worth for several years now.

 

If he's already throwing 94, that's a great sign. While Hughes & Miller might have the more appealing packages of size & stuff, I've seen many people argue that Allison is simply the best of them all. I've seen comparisons to the Royals 6th overall pick last year, Zack Greinke, for his advanced feel for pitching.

 

As for northern kids, Chris Lubanski is another one (from PA) that is off to a great start & is drawing large scouting crowds at each & every game (the ones that aren't rained/snowed out). The guys that finish their seasons strong are often the ones rewarded the most on draft day.

[colbyjack]

Loewen's line on the year:

 

42.2 IP, 14 H, 6 ER, 14 BB, 49 K, 1.28 ERA

 

C'mon Angelos, keep playing low-ball...

[xisxisxis]

C'mon Angelos, keep playing low-ball...

 

My understanding is that the Orioles are not able to negotiate with him until the end of his season. Now I believe you brought up a problem with the JC playoffs regarding the draft, so I am not sure when Loewen's season might be done, but I would guess somewhere in mid-May if they don't go to the playoffs. Given that the draft would only be a few weeks away, Adam then has to decide on taking the Orioles money or negotiating with either Milwaukee or Tampa Bay (depending on who drafts him) and hoping to get slightly better money. Since the money might not be that different (I am assuming the Orioles will have to move into the $4M ballpark if they have any chance to sign him) then he really has to decide on organization as the main point of whether to sign with Baltimore or not. If we are lucky and Angelos is much more interested in spending that $4M on a FA stud (Vlad?) than a teenager prospect than we may have a good chance. It will definitely be exciting to watch the developments or lack of. I'm keeping everything crossed including my twisted sense of humor http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/wink.gif .

[colbyjack]

Loewen pitched 1.2 innings in relief on Tuesday night, allowing only 1 hit while striking out 4.

 

I'm guessing Chipola is trying to get him back on the weekend schedule with only 6 games remaining (regular season ends a week from Sunday). I'm further guessing he'll see 2 more starts, one each weekend, and possibly one more relief appearance in the middle of next week to get him as many innings as possible.

 

Whomever signs Loewen (if anyone does), should get a relatively fresh arm, as he has only tossed 44.1 innings so far this year. Of course, at 29-10-1, Chipola probably is looking at some time in the playoffs. Even so, he won't approach 100 IP, and probably will be somewhere in the 70-80 range.

 

His line on the year:

 

44.1 IP, 15 H, 6 ER, 14 BB, 53 K, 1.22 ERA

[950opsLHcatcher]

I would like to note that I was the 2000th viewer of this thread. I think that gives me good enough stats to be drafted in the 13th round, if not higher.

[colbyjack]

As guessed, Loewen was on the mound again on Friday night:

 

8 IP, 4 H, 3 ER, 6 BB, 13 K

 

He is now 5-0, but those walks really are adding up. His line on the year:

 

52.1 IP, 19 H, 9 ER, 20 BB, 66 K, 1.55 ERA

 

And Rickie Weeks updated line:

 

.519/.629/1.008, 129 AB, 13 2B, 7 3B, 12 HR, 36 BB, 13 K, 18 for 18 in SB.

[colbyjack]

More updates:

 

Tim Stauffer won again on Friday, big surprise since he was facing perennial powerhouse LaSalle. His line was pretty impressive despite the competition:

 

7 IP, 3 H, 0 BB, 10 K, 0 ER, CG shutout

 

On the year:

 

1.64 ERA, 9 games, all starts, 7 CG, 66 IP, 50 H, 97 K, 7 BB, .208 batting average against

 

Brad Sullivan also won Friday, against another national powerhouse in St. Louis. Of course I'm kidding again, but again another impressive line:

 

8 IP, 4 H, 2 ER, 16 K, 2 BB

 

On the year:

 

2.10 ERA, 13 games, 12 starts, 1 CG, 81.1 IP, 54 H, 104 K, 24 BB, .190 BAA

 

Sullivan's numbers might be even more impressive in that he probably faces tougher competition than both Stauffer & Sleeth. Opponents on the year include Baylor, Tulane, Rice, Texas A&M & LSU.

 

Sleeth's line on the year:

 

2.88, 10 games, all starts, 2 CG, 75 IP, 58 H, 86 K, 18 BB, .213 BAA

 

And one more name, Michael Aubrey, who keeps on hitting:

 

.452/.522/.720, 13 2B, 1 3B, 9 HR, 17 BB & 9 K in 157 ABs

[colbyjack]

Loewen started on Wednesday evening, winning the game finishing the regular season at 6-0. Chipola's remaining games this weekend have been cancelled, and they start the state playoffs next weekend. His line on Wednesday:

 

6 IP, 5 H, 3 ER, 5 K, 2 BB

 

His line for the year:

 

58.1 IP, 24 H, 12 ER, 22 BB, 71 K, 1.85 ERA

 

Loewen started to give up more runs & walks as he warmed up & the season wore on. His control & command is supposed to be much better than what his numbers reflect. It could be a matter of getting him onto a pro team with a pitching coach to set him straight. Still, he's really limited the amount of base hits against him while striking out a lot of batters.

[colbyjack]

Sleeth Friday: 8 IP, 5 H, 1 ER, 6 K, 4 BB

 

Sullivan Saturday: 8 IP, 1 H, 0 ER, 12 K, 2 BB

 

Stauffer Saturday: 7 IP (8th CG), 5 H, 1 R, lost in a 1-0 ballgame

[OhioScout]

You should start giving reports on Cornell. I have not seen him yet but we have regional guys writing glowing reports on him. They haven't seen 95 MPH look any easier since Mark Prior. Creating a major buzz.

[colbyjack]

I was thinking about adding Cornell, but I guess I just didn't think he would go that high. A poster from T1 that has been kind enough to share information with me made me aware of Cornell about a month ago now, and he's quickly turned into the talk of the scouting world. I'd love to get your opinion of him when & if you get the chance to see him.

 

And everyone seems to say the same thing: He consistently throws in the 92-94 range seemingly without effort. There are reports of him sitting at 94-95 for an entire game, which is pretty amazing. I've heard that his breaking ball can be dominant when it's working, but he's not consistent with it nor his changeup. All 3 can be above average pitches when he's got everything working for him.

 

However, his stats playing in the MAC aren't that impressive. Here's his line on the year:

 

3.86 ERA, 10 games, all starts, 3 CG, 56 IP, 48 H, 66 K, 22 BB, .234 BAA

 

Good numbers, but not exactly dominant. He's not missing enough bats, and he's allowing quite a few baserunners for a pitcher in the MAC that now is being considered for a top pick. I just noticed yesterday that the D-Rays are following Cornell quite intently, so you know the Brewers are as well. Of course, there is always a story past the stats, but I would like to see a pretty good explanation as to why he's not posting better numbers.

 

Plus, he does have past elbow problems, and his mechanics have been known to get our of whack. I'm sure he'll get attention from anyone as long as he's compared to Mark Prior, no matter how loosely, but has he really elevated himself above more proven commodities like Sleeth, Sullivan & Stauffer?

[OhioScout]

colbyjack, you bring up valid points/arguments.

 

Cornell has a lot of upside. You're going to get concerns about his health. Marc Cornell's pure stuff may be the best in the nation, he has the stuff to dominate. Has he dominated? No. But those that like his upside will take him if he continues to throw well in his last few starts.

 

This is the thing, some scouts thought/think that college pitching is down this year. With Sullivan and Stauffer you have undersized right-handers. Sullivan is seemingly throwing 110-130 pitches every time out and Tim Stauffer is starting to tire out some. A good deal of scouting departments look for size with pitchers. Cornell's got it, Stauffer and Sullivan don't.

 

Cornell's pitchability isn't there with the others which is why he hasn't been so dominant. He gets too much plate at times and leaves pitches up sometimes. The reports by those that have followed him over time say that his improvement has been very good from this year to last. He wasn't an effective pitcher his sophomore season. Is it too much to ask of someone to go from an ineffective pitcher to a nationally dominant guy in one year?

 

I don't mean to sound like a Cornell apologist, just giving you some thoughts!

[colbyjack]

I don't mean to sound like a Cornell apologist, just giving you some thoughts!

 

And they're good thoughts at that!

 

After my comments about Cornell I decided to pop in the tape I have of him. The fastball is most certainly there, and it's the type of pitch that simply explodes out of his hand.

 

You're dead on with his command/control. He doesn't seem to be able to spot his fastball as well as he could. That seems to be a huge reason so many balls are put into play. If he learns that aspect of the game alone, he could become one heck of a pitcher.

 

He did snap off a couple of good breaking balls. Once again, if he gets more consistent with that pitch, the 1-2 power punch alone is going to be effective.

 

And you're right, just because he wasn't a known commodity last year shouldn't hurt his value now. In turn, just because he's not dominating right now doesn't mean he won't in the future. But again, you would like to see his production match his projection, especially for a college guy.

 

And you made another good point about his size compared to Sullivan & Stauffer. I'm surprised I haven't seen more publications bring up the concerns with both of these guys. And I wouldn't be surprised to see Sullivan take it easy after he signs a pro deal, if he even does in time to pitch this summer. As you said, he's gone incredibly deep in each & every game he's thrown. Did he throw this much last year before he went on to pitch for TeamUSA all summer?

 

Thanks as always for your insight OhioScout.

[OhioScout]

Has Cornell pitched on television?

 

Sullivan threw a good amount his sophomore season but the pitch counts weren't as consistently high. The Houston team was a lot better last year, this year they might feel they have to push him further than they may be comfortable to win games. He hasn't really slown down much, even after throwing a good amount his sophomore season.

[colbyjack]

Has Cornell pitched on television?

 

No, at least not around here. I have video of about 10-15 prospects for this year's draft, and Cornell is one of them. Sullivan is another.

 

Houston's offense isn't helping them too much this season, otherwise Sullivan might not be pushed as much. However, their pitching staff is rather strong with Wagner & Zell, so I guess I don't see the need to push Sullivan THAT much.

 

BA has a really good story on pitch counts in their most recent issue. Not too long ago no one was talking about them & they weren't such a big deal. The story does a great job giving some historical perspective while offering views from both sides of the argument.

[colbyjack]

OhioScout, or anyone else for that matter, have you heard anything about Dustin Mollekan? T1 is reporting that he is drawing a lot of scouts & may be considered with a high 1st-round selection. He's a 6'5" 205 RHP with a big-time fastball. Just curious if the buzz is legit.

[MassBrew]

Jim Callis at BA:

 

Who do you think is the best all-around catcher in the 2003 draft?

 

We're in the midst of canvassing the baseball world on this topic and several other draft-related issues. The consensus best all-around catcher is Jarrod Saltalamacchia from Royal Palm Beach (Fla.) High. Saltalamaccchia, who's 6-foot-4 and 195 pounds, is very athletic for a backstop. "As far as the total package," an American League scouting director said, "he's the guy." He has bat speed, arm strength and power potential. A Florida State signee, he hit .391-1-11 in 23 at-bats for third-place Team USA at the World Junior Championships last summer.

 

Saltalamacchia projects as a second- or third-round pick, especially with the expected emphasis on college players in the 2003 draft. The best bet for a catcher going in the first round appears to be Toledo's Mitch Maier.

 

Maier, who's 6-foot-2 and 200 pounds, also is very athletic for a catcher and saw time in the outfield in the Cape Cod League last summer. His hitting ability and offensive approach are his best attributes. Maier is having a huge year, batting .452-7-49 with 23 steals (in 26 attempts) through 39 games. His 27-7 walk-strikeout ratio has to have caught the eye of the Athletics, who pick 25th, 26th and 32nd. Though he has good tools behind the plate, he has thrown out just eight of 55 basestealers (15 percent).

[tensixdad]

Saltalamacchia's updated stats:

 

.430/.611/.733, 6 2B, 4 3B, 4 HR, 40 BB