Deal done with Jeffress - 1-year deal with two option years

[KeithStone53151]

Hard not to like this signing. He's been very solid in a brewers uniform. It's low $ and very low risk as it isn't guaranteed. If jefress looks like trash in any of the next 3 springs, he can be cut. If he's doing ok and Taylor Williams is lighting the world on fire in spring... he can be cut. If jefress finds something in this split finger pitch or other means of becoming a low 2s era pitcher, we have 2 option years that will be easy decisions.

 

To the guy mentioning incentives, I hope he hits every incentive and we pay him the full 2 million. It probably would mean he's worth 10 million or more and we paid him 3.75.

 

I also generally like the Stearns philosophy of creating competition. Jeffress isn't being given a roster spot and can compete with the potential shuttle service arms for a spot in spring, 3 way battle at catcher for both roster spots and PT, 3 guys battling for CF and potentially reps in the corners, 2b is likely an open competition between villar and sogard, hader and woodruff are probably penciled in but not guaranteed rotation spots. Heck arcia might feel pressure of competition with sogard taking so many starts at the end of last year. I love the philosophy, I think it's a big reason so many guys took steps forward last year

[MNBrew]

^^^This. . . . Lots of scenarios/options with lots of versatile talent and reasonable roster & financial flexibility. The one seemingly sure thing is that Stearns has done is NOT paint himself into a corner roster-wise.

[Humans Need Water]

And to find out that he has another potential 2+ million in incentives per year is mind boggling.

 

You're boggling your mind over 2 million in INCENTIVES when the Brewers are a 35 million dollar payroll operation? I'd hate to see your thoughts on a reliever signed for 10 mil a year guaranteed.

 

Stearns low ball offers Hughes around a million then signs Jeffress for 1.75 and 2.2 in extra incentives. It's truly is an insult to Hughes when he was arguably one of the best relievers on the team. Look at the track record with him and Jeffress, Hughes is better. And he pitched in a lot more high leverage and difficult situations than Jeffress did last year. You are correct 5 million is pennies to a team and 10 million is around a buck. Jeffress will have a nice 4.5 era with a whip of 1.40 so I guess that's worth just over 2 million.

Track record doesn't mean *last year*. I did look at their track record and outside of 2017 (mostly spent with TX where he clearly wasn't comfortable on or off the field) Jeffress has absolutely outproduced Hughes the 3yrs prior - in every single category outside of ERA for 2 of those years. You all love advanced metrics so look at the difference in Hughes ERA and (x)FIP - its drastic. Jeffress was a closer, Hughes was not. Jeffress is also 2.5yrs younger, throws harder with filthier stuff and has more team control whereas Hughes is a FA after this year. If he's not signed after the Brewers kick the tires on who they want then I'm sure they'll come to an agreement because he did perform well.

 

There's literally nothing bad about this deal. And Jeffress is better than Hughes.

[dacbrewers]

I am tired of them signing relief guys for 1 to 5 million looking for a bounce back year. Open the wallet and sign a quality proven reliever, its not like can't afford to do that. I think the Brewers just love certain guys and I wont be surprised if Drake makes the 25 man.

[dacbrewers]

If you look at career numbers, Hughes has a lower career era, whip and 100 more innings. Jeffress was only a closer for 1 year. YES, Jeffress throws harder but its about getting outs. Maybe he can have sucess as the 6th or 7th inning guy. Can't wait for Jeffress to prove me wrong next year.

[clancyphile]

If you look at career numbers, Hughes has a lower career era, whip and 100 more innings. Jeffress was only a closer for 1 year. YES, Jeffress throws harder but its about getting outs. Maybe he can have sucess as the 6th or 7th inning guy. Can't wait for Jeffress to prove me wrong next year.

 

With Milwaukee, Jeffress has been lights out in late relief.

 

Career ERA with the Brewers, counting 2017: 2.56, 1.301 WHIP, 2.57 K/BB ratio.

 

I think this is a very good,in-house solution for that 7th inning guy.

[TJseven7]

Im hoping he competes with Barnes for 6th or 7th bp arm... not 7th inning. Knebel hader swarzak or player similar puts you past 7th inning need.

[StearnsFTW]

This has *nothing* to do with Jared Hughes. They gave the guy a $1.75M deal... that has zero affect on any other transaction they've negotiated or will negotiate. There is no reason to get upset about this deal. When was the last time a $1.75M deal had a detrimental affect on this or any team?

 

Franklin Stubbs leaps to mind.

 

Serisously though, sure, why not? There's no risk here at all.

[coolhandluke121]

I see a lot of people talking about how Jeffress has been good when he's with the Brewers. With all due respect, I think that's completely missing the point. Prince Fielder was really good as a Brewer too; should we be bringing him back? Obviously I'm exaggerating to make a point, but the underlying point is legitimate; Jeffress has lost velocity and is past the age where a player can take his body for granted. He seems to have some really bad offseason training and health habits and that means a continued decline is likely for a guy who relies so much on velocity. Prime age is 27 or 28 and he's already 30. He has a long history of severe control issues and has basically been a replacement level player for all but his prime years. There is nothing special about being with Milwaukee; it's just that he was in his prime. Milwaukee is not a pitcher-friendly place. Only elite velocity allowed him to cover up his deficiencies, and he lacks that now.

 

I don't think anybody is complaining about the deal or incentives. At least that's not the issue for me. I just don't even see the point of keeping a roster spot for him, and it concerns me that they might be planning to do so instead of seeking clear upgrades, which they can easily afford. He could prove me wrong but I don't think keeping him would be a good gamble and if they strike out in free agency, I would much rather they give Houser, Baker, and/or Williams a chance to have a couple really good years in their prime like Jeffress, Thornburg, Axford, and Turnbow did. That seems more likely than J.J. bouncing back, as he's no more talented a pitcher than any of those 7 guys.

[torts]

I don't think anybody is complaining about the deal or incentives.

 

that is literally what is happening.

[coolhandluke121]

I don't think anybody is complaining about the deal or incentives.

 

that is literally what is happening.

 

I think it's implied that people know they could just cut Jeffress anyway. It's the fact that he's likely to be on the team instead of Hughes that we don't like, and rightfully so. It's not the actual money. We know it's not our money. We just want them to improve the bullpen and we think Jeffress is going to continue to be a liability.

[jerichoholicninja]

$1.75M buys you pretty much nothing in baseball these days. If you take away the name Jeremy Jeffress and just look at it as a RP signed with his stats, this is a total non-story that would have been buried on this board by now

[Outlander]

Not a chance it would be buried this time of year. Any MLB signing is going to get two pages right now.

[KeithStone53151]

I don't think anybody is complaining about the deal or incentives.

 

that is literally what is happening.

 

I think it's implied that people know they could just cut Jeffress anyway. It's the fact that he's likely to be on the team instead of Hughes that we don't like, and rightfully so. It's not the actual money. We know it's not our money. We just want them to improve the bullpen and we think Jeffress is going to continue to be a liability.

 

I'm honestly not a fan of Hughes as a pitcher. His stats make him seem very solid, but it was tough to watch him pitch last year. He basically had 2 pitches, sinker/slider. He was extremely wild with both pitches, to the point that I'm not sure he had any idea where they were going. I wouldn't feel comfortable using him late in a game. Which brings me to my next point that he also was primarily used in low leverage situations. He wasn't the guy going in to face Bryant or Votto with the game on the line. He was used moreso in blowout games, which are a bit better of opportunities to have success. I'm not trying to argue that Hughes is a terrible pitcher. He's decent, probably more of a 4 ERA guy than the numbers he's posted. I personally want to aim higher with the rest of the spots. And I like what Jeffress offers more than what Hughes offers. He's wild but not as bad as Hughes. I like that he's working on an additional offering that I'm hoping will help make up for a velocity dip as he ages.

[jerichoholicninja]

Hughes has had some really good looking ERA's over his career but his FIP has been around 4 (3.81-4.68) every full season season of his career. Last year his WAR, WHIP, H/9, and K/9 were all at or around career bests. You could say last year was the best statistical year of his career, meaning he either finally figured it out at 31/32 or it was an outlier career year he won't replicate. Personally, I would lean more toward outlier. If you want to look at this as a Hughes or Jeffress situation (which I don't think it was to Stearns), Jeffress wanted to stay here and probably took less than Hughes will get for what will ultimately be probably about the same production but Jeffress has a much higher ceiling.

[Roderick]

Rather have hughes than jeffress. I don't understand the love fest with Jeffress.

 

That Jeffress contract is really a good value. The only downside is Counsell pitching him a lot and he earns incentives if he isn't really decent.

 

I don't see why you don't try to keep both, Hughes wasn't going to break the bank.

 

Get rid of Drake.

[KeithStone53151]

Rather have hughes than jeffress. I don't understand the love fest with Jeffress.

 

That Jeffress contract is really a good value. The only downside is Counsell pitching him a lot and he earns incentives if he isn't really really decent.

 

I don't see why you don't try to keep both, Hughes wasn't going to break the bank.

 

Get rid of Drake.

 

I hope them not keeping both is a sign they intend to aim high for FA bullpen help. Swarzak and Reed for example would both be much better than Hughes, and those 2 plus a lefty(Duke) is what I'm hoping for.

[Outlander]

I can see why Drake is still around because he is the lefty specialist right now. It was never between Drake and Hughes/Jeffress. Now if they do sign a better lefty like Duke and still have Drake in this bullpen that would raise questions.

[Lathund]

Hughes has had some really good looking ERA's over his career but his FIP has been around 4 (3.81-4.68) every full season season of his career. Last year his WAR, WHIP, H/9, and K/9 were all at or around career bests. You could say last year was the best statistical year of his career, meaning he either finally figured it out at 31/32 or it was an outlier career year he won't replicate. Personally, I would lean more toward outlier. If you want to look at this as a Hughes or Jeffress situation (which I don't think it was to Stearns), Jeffress wanted to stay here and probably took less than Hughes will get for what will ultimately be probably about the same production but Jeffress has a much higher ceiling.

 

I use FIP/xFIP a lot, and they are very good predictive stats. But the one thing FIP doesn't say anything about is quality of contact and groundball rate. Hughes has, in (parts of) 7 seasons and almost 400 innings consistently outperformed his FIP (As in comparing ERA and FIP) by >1. At some point you just have to accept that the way he pitches, with a ton of groundballs, will see a lower ERA than FIP and that it isn't luck or a sign that he's due regression. Like him or not, prefer him over Jeffres/Williams/whoever or not, but I don't think using FIP against him is really fair.

[dacbrewers]

Hughes has had some really good looking ERA's over his career but his FIP has been around 4 (3.81-4.68) every full season season of his career. Last year his WAR, WHIP, H/9, and K/9 were all at or around career bests. You could say last year was the best statistical year of his career, meaning he either finally figured it out at 31/32 or it was an outlier career year he won't replicate. Personally, I would lean more toward outlier. If you want to look at this as a Hughes or Jeffress situation (which I don't think it was to Stearns), Jeffress wanted to stay here and probably took less than Hughes will get for what will ultimately be probably about the same production but Jeffress has a much higher ceiling.

 

I use FIP/xFIP a lot, and they are very good predictive stats. But the one thing FIP doesn't say anything about is quality of contact and groundball rate. Hughes has, in (parts of) 7 seasons and almost 400 innings consistently outperformed his FIP (As in comparing ERA and FIP) by >1. At some point you just have to accept that the way he pitches, with a ton of groundballs, will see a lower ERA than FIP and that it isn't luck or a sign that he's due regression. Like him or not, prefer him over Jeffres/Williams/whoever or not, but I don't think using FIP against him is really fair.

 

Well said. FIP and xFIP don't tell the whole story as do a lot of stats.

[jerichoholicninja]

Hughes has had some really good looking ERA's over his career but his FIP has been around 4 (3.81-4.68) every full season season of his career. Last year his WAR, WHIP, H/9, and K/9 were all at or around career bests. You could say last year was the best statistical year of his career, meaning he either finally figured it out at 31/32 or it was an outlier career year he won't replicate. Personally, I would lean more toward outlier. If you want to look at this as a Hughes or Jeffress situation (which I don't think it was to Stearns), Jeffress wanted to stay here and probably took less than Hughes will get for what will ultimately be probably about the same production but Jeffress has a much higher ceiling.

 

I use FIP/xFIP a lot, and they are very good predictive stats. But the one thing FIP doesn't say anything about is quality of contact and groundball rate. Hughes has, in (parts of) 7 seasons and almost 400 innings consistently outperformed his FIP (As in comparing ERA and FIP) by >1. At some point you just have to accept that the way he pitches, with a ton of groundballs, will see a lower ERA than FIP and that it isn't luck or a sign that he's due regression. Like him or not, prefer him over Jeffres/Williams/whoever or not, but I don't think using FIP against him is really fair.

 

Hence why I threw in other stats. His ERA has been all over the place. The FIP numbers he's put up are as consistant as they come, and they're not good. Career 5.8 k/9 is pretty terrible for a RP. Even the 7.2 he had last year just isn't anything special. I really have nothing against Hughes but I see no reason to make a fuss over losing him. Especially when, as I pointed out, he'll probably get more than Jeffress got and not perform all that much better.

[dacbrewers]

I thought Hughes was great at getting out of sticky situations last year. Jeffress wasn't forced into too many of those situations. I hope he does perform but I am betting against it.

[reillymcshane]

Jeffress was a pretty good pitcher from 2014-16. Sub-3.00 ERAs, bWAR of 0.9, 1.5 and 1.8. That's really quite good. I realize he was not good for Texas last year, but he was decent (not great) once he got to Milwaukee. I guess a lot of people just think the guy is going to suck, but I'm willing to roll the dice with the guy. It's only been a year since he was a good player. And if he falters, we don't have to pick up his options.

 

I also think the club likes that Jeffress has closing experience - should they ever need to turn to him.

 

As for Hughes, I'm surprised we didn't keep him as well, but such is life. The guy was a solid, if unspectacular, player. Perhaps the team viewed him and Jeffress as too similar - heavy ground ball inducing hurlers.

[coolhandluke121]

It's not really about Hughes, although I definitely preferred him. It's about Jeffress being a spectacular flame-out risk, which the evidence suggests has already begun. Last year this would have been fine, like we all thought about taking a flyer on Feliz. But look what that cost them in a year in which they missed the playoffs by one damn game. I don't want that again. If you want to take a risk on a guy, at least make it a young guy like Houser or Williams. I could live with one of them bombing because they're pre-prime guys, but if JJ has a Feliz-like April and May, it's going to be such a waste. It's not the money, it's the fact that they should give someone else the opportunity. It's the IP's and the roster spot. Just the sheer amount of effort they put into writing those options makes me think they're going to give him a pretty long leash, and I think it could easily cost them a playoff berth yet again. I expect nothing from him. Hughes seems at least a bit more reliable, but he's probably just having his Carlos Torres years so I don't really care that they ditched him either. That's not the issue.

 

This is all about the likelihood of seeing JJ bomb spectacularly in key situations over a few months before they give up on him, and all when they could easily afford to sign guys like Neshek, Reed, and Swarzak without compromising their flexibility at all.

[KeithStone53151]

It's not really about Hughes, although I definitely preferred him. It's about Jeffress being a spectacular flame-out risk, which the evidence suggests has already begun. Last year this would have been fine, like we all thought about taking a flyer on Feliz. But look what that cost them in a year in which they missed the playoffs by one damn game. I don't want that again. If you want to take a risk on a guy, at least make it a young guy like Houser or Williams. I could live with one of them bombing because they're pre-prime guys, but if JJ has a Feliz-like April and May, it's going to be such a waste. It's not the money, it's the fact that they should give someone else the opportunity. It's the IP's and the roster spot. Just the sheer amount of effort they put into writing those options makes me think they're going to give him a pretty long leash, and I think it could easily cost them a playoff berth yet again. I expect nothing from him. Hughes seems at least a bit more reliable, but he's probably just having his Carlos Torres years so I don't really care that they ditched him either. That's not the issue.

 

This is all about the likelihood of seeing JJ bomb spectacularly in key situations over a few months before they give up on him, and all when they could easily afford to sign guys like Neshek, Reed, and Swarzak without compromising their flexibility at all.

 

I have to think with Knebel, Barnes, possibly(but probably not) Hader, and whoever else we bring in...Jeffress will be a very low leverage situation guy at least initially. If we bring back Swarzak and 2 other quality relief arms, do you think Jeffress is going to get high leverage appearances over those guys? The Houser/Williams/Derby crew likely will all rotate through the 8th spot in the bullpen and get chances at the big league level. The $ for Jeffress are low enough that we could cut Jeffress at any time and not be significantly hampered. And bringing him in isn't going to stop us from signing 2-3 guys. At the moment, we have only Knebel/Barnes/Jeffress locked into the bullpen. Suter is likely, some think Hader will be there...but only 3 guys locked in and we likely will roll with 8.

 

I also think you generally discount Jeffress as a pitcher. Sure he's losing a little velocity, but he still can hit mid 90s consistently. He's also developing that split fingered pitch and threw it 16% of the time last year after hardly throwing it at all previously. Having that pitch should make the velocity he has play up a bit in theory. Plenty of guys reinvent themselves to some degree later in their career as their velocity dips.