Mike Fiers

[Warning Track Power]

Was listening to MLB on XM this morning and one of the updates said the Astros are looking to move Mike Fiers prior to the Friday non-tender deadline.

 

https://sports.yahoo.com/report-astros-surely-attempt-trade-024241332.html

 

Not sure if I would have any interest in Fiers, but as a possible #5 innings eater he would be a cheap alternative to the Cobb or Lynn type SP.

[pacopete4]

I'd welcome him back if it doesn't take much to get him. He could be a great candidate for our rotation to hopefully get us to Nelson at the midway point (fingers crossed).

[KeithStone53151]

I'm not very confident in him bouncing back from a 5+ ERA. His command got worse last year, gave up way too many HR. I'm not sure I'd want him in the rotation if he were free. We have guys in house that can post a 5+ ERA, I'd rather aim a bit higher.

[TURBO]

I'd welcome him back if it doesn't take much to get him. He could be a great candidate for our rotation to hopefully get us to Nelson at the midway point (fingers crossed).

 

I have zero confidence we will be able to count on Nelson this season, in any way...

 

It would be prudent on our part to go into the season with no plans of Nelson being in the rotation. If he comes back, so be it, there are always injuries to others, etc.

[pacopete4]

I'd welcome him back if it doesn't take much to get him. He could be a great candidate for our rotation to hopefully get us to Nelson at the midway point (fingers crossed).

 

I have zero confidence we will be able to count on Nelson this season, in any way...

 

It would be prudent on our part to go into the season with no plans of Nelson being in the rotation. If he comes back, so be it, there are always injuries to others, etc.

 

I don't want to derail the thread too much but has there been more to come out on his recovery from surgery that makes it a longer process than originally thought? I was under the impression that it wasn't a full year type of a process but I could be way off base with it.

[KeithStone53151]

I'd welcome him back if it doesn't take much to get him. He could be a great candidate for our rotation to hopefully get us to Nelson at the midway point (fingers crossed).

 

I have zero confidence we will be able to count on Nelson this season, in any way...

 

It would be prudent on our part to go into the season with no plans of Nelson being in the rotation. If he comes back, so be it, there are always injuries to others, etc.

 

I don't want to derail the thread too much but has there been more to come out on his recovery from surgery that makes it a longer process than originally thought? I was under the impression that it wasn't a full year type of a process but I could be way off base with it.

 

I think a lot of people(myself included) are generally pessimistic due to it being a shoulder injury. Shoulder injuries are tougher to come back from than elbow injuries. He almost certainly will be able to return to pitching, but will he be the same guy? If he loses any range of motion, he's pretty much done. I'd like to think Stearns and co have a pretty good idea of the time frame for him to pitch again, but they have no reason to share that.

[TURBO]

I'm not very confident in him bouncing back from a 5+ ERA. His command got worse last year, gave up way too many HR. I'm not sure I'd want him in the rotation if he were free. We have guys in house that can post a 5+ ERA, I'd rather aim a bit higher.

 

This.

 

We tend to want to pursue ex Brewers when the possibility exists, but most guys who leave the Brewers are gone for good reason. The list goes on and on, and every time an ex Brewer becomes available, there are people that want him back.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

I'm not very confident in him bouncing back from a 5+ ERA. His command got worse last year, gave up way too many HR. I'm not sure I'd want him in the rotation if he were free. We have guys in house that can post a 5+ ERA, I'd rather aim a bit higher.

 

This.

 

We tend to want to pursue ex Brewers when the possibility exists, but most guys who leave the Brewers are gone for good reason. The list goes on and on, and every time an ex Brewer becomes available, there are people that want him back.

 

I'd argue that Fiers is gone because the rebuilding Brewers traded their stud CF and a good starter for a slew of top-end prospects.

 

If they could grab Fiers for a marginal low minors "prospect" (similar to what they traded for Walker), then what's the harm? While Fiers is nothing special, it could be argued that he'd likely be better in the National League, and could be a serviceable #3-4 in 2018, bridging the gap until either Nelson comes back, or Hader/Burnes/Peralta/Perrin are ready to contribute in the rotation.

[HighHeat19]

The harm is that he could be blocking a young gun who can pitch south of 5.00.

[JohnBriggs12]

Astros undoubtedly plan to non tender him if he's not traded by tomorrow. If a team trades for him, then they will have to pay him his arbitration amount. The chances he's traded are almost nil. So I'd just wait and then negotiate. I have to think he's got good feelings about his time as a Brewer.

 

Regardless of his being a former Brewer, he's the kind of guy worth taking a flier on for a team wanting some rotation depth. He might even have to take a minor league deal that comes with a camp invite and an opt out.

[KeithStone53151]

Astros undoubtedly plan to non tender him if he's not traded by tomorrow. If a team trades for him, then they will have to pay him his arbitration amount. The chances he's traded are almost nil. So I'd just wait and then negotiate. I have to think he's got good feelings about his time as a Brewer.

 

Regardless of his being a former Brewer, he's the kind of guy worth taking a flier on for a team wanting some rotation depth. He might even have to take a minor league deal that comes with a camp invite and an opt out.

 

Now this I'd be on board with. For a 32 year old coming off a mid-5s ERA, I would absolutely do this. So would a lot of teams though I assume.

[Point Beer Is Best]

He's going to be non-tendered since his production isn't worth the estimated $5.7M he's slated for in arbitration. Not worth trading for unless you think he can rebound into a useful #5 starter with a 4.00 ERA, but absolutely worth going after once he's non-tendered on more team-friendly terms.

[reillymcshane]

I'm not saying we get Fiers, but I do think this is the kind of guy that the team will get. A back end guy with a low salary that they hope will rebound a bit or will just eat innings at an averagish rate. A guy like Lackey or RA Dickey -- nothing special, but just someone to hold the fort down for a year (or until Nelson returns to Burnes is ready for a promotion).

 

As for Fiers, his peripherals have tumbled steadily the last two years. Always a red flag for a guy with mediocre stuff. His fastball velocity is still the same as his days with the Brewers (which is not anything special). The big thing I saw looking at his stats was that he has cut back on throwing his four seam fastball. He used to throw it 55% or more of the time while in Milwaukee. In Houston, he only throws it 30%. Instead, he seems to have gone with his change up and sinker more - throwing the latter 19% of the time last year - and less than 5% while in Milwaukee. Perhaps there's something to be salvaged there.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=7754&position=P

[KeithStone53151]

I'm not saying we get Fiers, but I do think this is the kind of guy that the team will get. A back end guy with a low salary that they hope will rebound a bit or will just eat innings at an averagish rate. A guy like Lackey or RA Dickey -- nothing special, but just someone to hold the fort down for a year (or until Nelson returns to Burnes is ready for a promotion).

 

As for Fiers, his peripherals have tumbled steadily the last two years. Always a red flag for a guy with mediocre stuff. His fastball velocity is still the same as his days with the Brewers (which is not anything special). The big thing I saw looking at his stats was that he has cut back on throwing his four seam fastball. He used to throw it 55% or more of the time while in Milwaukee. In Houston, he only throws it 30%. Instead, he seems to have gone with his change up and sinker more - throwing the latter 19% of the time last year - and less than 5% while in Milwaukee. Perhaps there's something to be salvaged there.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=7754&position=P

 

Maybe Fiers would be a nice cheap buy low option if Stearns feels like he has a reasonable or better chance of bouncing back to the low-mid 4s. That type of ERA will definitely keep us in game. I find it really interesting that he went away from the fastball so much. I remember his bread and butter being high fastball/curveball combo.

 

One upside to a guy like Fiers is we won't be obligated to start him if he isn't getting the job done.

[Boomer5]

I'm not saying we get Fiers, but I do think this is the kind of guy that the team will get. A back end guy with a low salary that they hope will rebound a bit or will just eat innings at an averagish rate. A guy like Lackey or RA Dickey -- nothing special, but just someone to hold the fort down for a year (or until Nelson returns to Burnes is ready for a promotion).

 

As for Fiers, his peripherals have tumbled steadily the last two years. Always a red flag for a guy with mediocre stuff. His fastball velocity is still the same as his days with the Brewers (which is not anything special). The big thing I saw looking at his stats was that he has cut back on throwing his four seam fastball. He used to throw it 55% or more of the time while in Milwaukee. In Houston, he only throws it 30%. Instead, he seems to have gone with his change up and sinker more - throwing the latter 19% of the time last year - and less than 5% while in Milwaukee. Perhaps there's something to be salvaged there.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=7754&position=P

 

He is the exact guy we should be targeting. A lower end, lower cost innings eater. Once he is non tendered we should be all over him.

[NievesNoNO]

I'm not saying we get Fiers, but I do think this is the kind of guy that the team will get. A back end guy with a low salary that they hope will rebound a bit or will just eat innings at an averagish rate. A guy like Lackey or RA Dickey -- nothing special, but just someone to hold the fort down for a year (or until Nelson returns to Burnes is ready for a promotion).

 

As for Fiers, his peripherals have tumbled steadily the last two years. Always a red flag for a guy with mediocre stuff. His fastball velocity is still the same as his days with the Brewers (which is not anything special). The big thing I saw looking at his stats was that he has cut back on throwing his four seam fastball. He used to throw it 55% or more of the time while in Milwaukee. In Houston, he only throws it 30%. Instead, he seems to have gone with his change up and sinker more - throwing the latter 19% of the time last year - and less than 5% while in Milwaukee. Perhaps there's something to be salvaged there.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=7754&position=P

 

He is the exact guy we should be targeting. A lower end, lower cost innings eater. Once he is non tendered we should be all over him.

 

I agree, I'd be ok giving up something low-level for him. I think there would be plenty of teams that would be happy to fill out their rotation with him, even at 5 mil. I wonder if he tried to become more of a ground ball pitcher in Hou. He successfully induced more ground balls but also (un)successfully gave up more home runs.

[reillymcshane]

 

I agree, I'd be ok giving up something low-level for him. I think there would be plenty of teams that would be happy to fill out their rotation with him, even at 5 mil. I wonder if he tried to become more of a ground ball pitcher in Hou. He successfully induced more ground balls but also (un)successfully gave up more home runs.

He might be a victim of the new baseball. He's kind of always lived on the edge - and giving up an extra few feet has simply translated into too many extra HRs.

[CheezWizHed]

I was a huge Fiers fan back when he was coming up through the system and pitching for the Brewers. But I also was a fan of trading him when they did (trading high anyone?).

 

If he is non-tendered, maybe its worth a free Fiers flyer. But I wouldn't trade anyone away for him.

[TJseven7]

I wouldn't mind him back. Non-tendored even better. Just a little nervous about bringing back anyone we traded away lately. Gomez fiers lucroy thorny smith all almost immediately fell on their face. If we get him at jeffress price, well guerra peralta and garza were all pretty bad at times so the statement it couldn't hurt has never been truer. Think there has to be better gambles out there though.

[JosephC]

I'd argue that trading for an 8 million dollar Jason Hammel (meaning the Royals would have to include 3 million dollars) would be better than trading for a 5.7 million dollar Mike Fiers. Over the last two years Fiers has really fallen off. 4.84 ERA, 1.39 WHIP, 4.91 FIP, 81 ERA+. Last year the FIP ballooned to 5.43. Over the last two year Hammel has a 4.59 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 4.43 FIP, 94 ERA+. Last year his FIP was 4.37, and I think chances are very good that he'll be a full 0.5+ runs per 9 better than Fiers in 2018 but obviously time will tell on that. Big enough difference to justify the additional 2.4 million, but even so Hammel would probably be about Plan E on my list of starting pitcher wants.

 

Fiers arbitration estimate is pretty much irrelevant because of the Doug Fister deal. Fister is guaranteed 1 year, 4 million with an option for a second year. 4 million would have to be a high side number on Fiers. Have to believe that everyone will pass on the trade market and eventually Fiers is non-tendered and signs a free agent deal somewhere in the 3-4 million dollar range. Even at that bargain price I don't know if I'd be interested. 4.91 FIP over two years is a bit too much Matt Garza-ish for my taste (and actually, Garza's FIP over the last two years was 4.64). I think I'd just go with Aaron Wilkerson rather than try Fiers.

 

Actually a bit disappointed that the Brewers didn't seem to be in on Fister. His 2018 ERA was very ugly (4.88), but the peripherals were solid leading to a pretty good 3.98 FIP. Strikeout rate was a bit scary when put in context, 8.3 K/9 but lifetime it's only 6.2 K/9 so that number looks a bit fluke-ish and one has to wonder how a normal Fister strikeout rate will affect the 2018 ERA. But at a 4 million guaranteed deal, that has the look of being the best starter bargain signing of the off-season. Just looks to be a better performer than a similar costing Mike Fiers and a way cheaper option than what will probably be a similar performer in Jason Hammel.

[KeithStone53151]

I'd argue that trading for an 8 million dollar Jason Hammel (meaning the Royals would have to include 3 million dollars) would be better than trading for a 5.7 million dollar Mike Fiers. Over the last two years Fiers has really fallen off. 4.84 ERA, 1.39 WHIP, 4.91 FIP, 81 ERA+. Last year the FIP ballooned to 5.43. Over the last two year Hammel has a 4.59 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 4.43 FIP, 94 ERA+. Last year his FIP was 4.37, and I think chances are very good that he'll be a full 0.5+ runs per 9 better than Fiers in 2018 but obviously time will tell on that. Big enough difference to justify the additional 2.4 million, but even so Hammel would probably be about Plan E on my list of starting pitcher wants.

 

Fiers arbitration estimate is pretty much irrelevant because of the Doug Fister deal. Fister is guaranteed 1 year, 4 million with an option for a second year. 4 million would have to be a high side number on Fiers. Have to believe that everyone will pass on the trade market and eventually Fiers is non-tendered and signs a free agent deal somewhere in the 3-4 million dollar range. Even at that bargain price I don't know if I'd be interested. 4.91 FIP over two years is a bit too much Matt Garza-ish for my taste (and actually, Garza's FIP over the last two years was 4.64). I think I'd just go with Aaron Wilkerson rather than try Fiers.

 

Actually a bit disappointed that the Brewers didn't seem to be in on Fister. His 2018 ERA was very ugly (4.88), but the peripherals were solid leading to a pretty good 3.98 FIP. Strikeout rate was a bit scary when put in context, 8.3 K/9 but lifetime it's only 6.2 K/9 so that number looks a bit fluke-ish and one has to wonder how a normal Fister strikeout rate will affect the 2018 ERA. But at a 4 million guaranteed deal, that has the look of being the best starter bargain signing of the off-season. Just looks to be a better performer than a similar costing Mike Fiers and a way cheaper option than what will probably be a similar performer in Jason Hammel.

 

We shouldn't be approaching a SP pitcher with the mentality "which pitcher can we get to put up an upper 4's ERA for the cheapest?". With how good the team was last year and the firepower we have to work with(payroll and prospects), we should be aiming for a higher quality player than that. Fiers, Fister, Hammel...we might as well keep Garza or roll out Wilkerson if we are going to aim that low. I don't mind bringing those guys in on a minor league deal that stipulates $3-4 million if they make the team, but we shouldn't be trading for them or taking on a significant guaranteed salary.

[bill hAll Star]

I'd argue that trading for an 8 million dollar Jason Hammel (meaning the Royals would have to include 3 million dollars) would be better than trading for a 5.7 million dollar Mike Fiers. Over the last two years Fiers has really fallen off. 4.84 ERA, 1.39 WHIP, 4.91 FIP, 81 ERA+. Last year the FIP ballooned to 5.43. Over the last two year Hammel has a 4.59 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 4.43 FIP, 94 ERA+. Last year his FIP was 4.37, and I think chances are very good that he'll be a full 0.5+ runs per 9 better than Fiers in 2018 but obviously time will tell on that. Big enough difference to justify the additional 2.4 million, but even so Hammel would probably be about Plan E on my list of starting pitcher wants.

 

Fiers arbitration estimate is pretty much irrelevant because of the Doug Fister deal. Fister is guaranteed 1 year, 4 million with an option for a second year. 4 million would have to be a high side number on Fiers. Have to believe that everyone will pass on the trade market and eventually Fiers is non-tendered and signs a free agent deal somewhere in the 3-4 million dollar range. Even at that bargain price I don't know if I'd be interested. 4.91 FIP over two years is a bit too much Matt Garza-ish for my taste (and actually, Garza's FIP over the last two years was 4.64). I think I'd just go with Aaron Wilkerson rather than try Fiers.

 

Actually a bit disappointed that the Brewers didn't seem to be in on Fister. His 2018 ERA was very ugly (4.88), but the peripherals were solid leading to a pretty good 3.98 FIP. Strikeout rate was a bit scary when put in context, 8.3 K/9 but lifetime it's only 6.2 K/9 so that number looks a bit fluke-ish and one has to wonder how a normal Fister strikeout rate will affect the 2018 ERA. But at a 4 million guaranteed deal, that has the look of being the best starter bargain signing of the off-season. Just looks to be a better performer than a similar costing Mike Fiers and a way cheaper option than what will probably be a similar performer in Jason Hammel.

 

We shouldn't be approaching a SP pitcher with the mentality "which pitcher can we get to put up an upper 4's ERA for the cheapest?". With how good the team was last year and the firepower we have to work with(payroll and prospects), we should be aiming for a higher quality player than that. Fiers, Fister, Hammel...we might as well keep Garza or roll out Wilkerson if we are going to aim that low. I don't mind bringing those guys in on a minor league deal that stipulates $3-4 million if they make the team, but we shouldn't be trading for them or taking on a significant guaranteed salary.

 

If you think Hammel is slightly better and this is one of the final pieces for the roster, I personally don't mind if the payroll is $84 million instead of $81 million this year. It's still well under the budget.

[JosephC]

I think the upper-4's ERA is likely with Fiers and specifically stated that I would rather just go with Aaron Wilkerson. But Fister had a 3.98 FIP last year, Hammel had a 4.43 FIP over the last two years and a 4.37 FIP in 2017...I feel safer projecting those pitchers to be more in the 4.20-4.50 ERA range and in that area I wouldn't mind seeing them added to the staff to fill out the back end and eat up some innings.

[KeithStone53151]

I think the upper-4's ERA is likely with Fiers and specifically stated that I would rather just go with Aaron Wilkerson. But Fister had a 3.98 FIP last year, Hammel had a 4.43 FIP over the last two years and a 4.37 FIP in 2017...I feel safer projecting those pitchers to be more in the 4.20-4.50 ERA range and in that area I wouldn't mind seeing them added to the staff to fill out the back end and eat up some innings.

 

Hammel is different than Fiers or Fister, he's been underrated for some time in my opinion. He at least has a bit of upside left. I still think we can aim a bit higher to fill the 5th spot. And you really should consider Woodruff/Hader being the 2 guys filling out the back end of the rotation. They are more unknown and while they are certainly talented enough to pitch somewhere in the 3s or better, there's a wide variance on what they will do.

 

And I fundamentally don't agree with signing a bad pitcher and justifying it by saying "well he's our number 5". Talk of Fister/Fiers is exactly that. You can sugarcoat it by trying to say "well if they have a good year they'll probably post 4.2-4.5 ERA", but that's not a formula for winning. We should be aiming higher than that in general, and we kinda have to considering we don't really have an ace and I'd argue we don't have a strong #2 SP either(unless Hader starts fulfilling his potential). Davies is a back end starter that's been playing up and getting mid-rotation results. Anderson was a back end guy until his velocity uptick and is probably a mid-rotation guy if he can maintain it. We can be very successful with a rotation full of guys that post quality starts more often than not and a shutdown bullpen, along with an above average offense and solid D. That's how we were so successful last year. Our struggles came when Nelson went down and Garza's smoke and mirrors stopped posting mid-rotation results.

[reillymcshane]

I think the upper-4's ERA is likely with Fiers and specifically stated that I would rather just go with Aaron Wilkerson.

The Brewers may very well do this, but I'm still betting that they bring in someone.

 

One thing that a mediocre pitcher can do is provide stability (if that makes sense). There is some value (not a ton, but it's there) in a guy who reliability takes the ball every fifth day, tosses 5-6 innings and keeps his ERA around league average (major league starters had a 4.49 ERA last season). That's why I've tossed out the idea of guys like Lackey and Dickey - and even Fiers (although his ERA was not even close to league average). It's better having an RA Dickey with his 4.26 ERA out there 32 times than trotting out Wily Peralta, Tommy Milone, and so forth.

 

Ultimately, the key is you want someone who is durable (meaning they stay healthy), but can still pitch okay. They might not be pretty, but they get their job done.

 

You can risk going with a younger guy - say Wilkerson - but there's a big risk that he just is awful. The worst is mediocre and unreliable - like Garza.

 

Of course, any of these guys can get hurt or fall off a cliff. But there's an inherent risk with any athlete that that kind of stuff is going to happen. You just have to live with it - and plan for what happens when it does.

 

I'd rather get a guy with some upside - such as Chatwood - but there will be competition for him. And it will cost more years and money.