Christian Yelich

[pogokat]

I've had insider stuff a couple of times in the past, (I have nothing at all right now), and I've been told flat out not to get too specific, and never to quote my source.

 

It's years ago now, but one time it was a player who gave me some very detailed stuff, and all he closed with was, "If you ever mention my name, you'll never hear from me again." Well, he wound up signing with another team that offseason .... and I've never heard from him again anyway!

 

When someone trusts you on a level that could cause them a great deal of trouble, you've simply got to respect that - I have no idea who knows what, but generally speaking, I know this stuff goes on.

 

Had a very similar experience where a Brewers area scout told me directly who the brewers were going to draft in round 1 of the draft many years ago. Turns out, he wasn't telling the truth, because these guys get asked these questions a lot, and they;d get in trouble if they just straight up told every person that asked them. We did stay friendly next time I saw him though.

[pogokat]

I know someone yesterday mentioned Arcia as a potential target for Yelich, but I don't think there was anything to back that up. Well, here's something: https://www.fishstripes.com/2018/1/24/16925838/miami-marlins-christian-yelich-mlb-trade-rumors-target-milwaukee-brewers-shortstop-orlando-arcia

 

Personally, I don't like the idea of creating a hole to fill one, and it is arguable that the team even has an OF hole to fill. I would imagine that Arcia's and Yelich's values are somewhat similar. Perhaps if the Marlins also send Starlin Castro, this works, but I think that would be a downgrade for the Brewers. Maybe the team thinks Dubon is closer to ready than a lot of us think? I'm fine with giving up prospects for Yelich, but when we start talking about fleecing the MLB roster, that's a little more scary.

 

If they were to trade Arcia, then this deal would b similar to when the Brewers traded Escobar to the royals. And the Brewers actually have multiple in house options to replace Orlando---Villar, Hernan, Dubon. They just aren't as good.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

If they were to trade Arcia, then this deal would b similar to when the Brewers traded Escobar to the royals. And the Brewers actually have multiple in house options to replace Orlando---Villar, Hernan, Dubon. They just aren't as good.

 

I would rank Castro far above Yuni B as a replacement SS if that was the deal. Villar has the athleticism to play there, but would obviously be a big downgrade. I would say he potentially could be better offensively, though, if he could recapture his 2016 magic. Hernan is nice to have around, but we're in trouble if he's starting at SS. I guess Sogard could play there as well.

 

I don't know ... Dubon is considered a very good to great SS, but I never hear him mentioned in the same breath as Arcia defensive ability-wise. Also, can be make enough contact to be a starting SS for a contender?

[superfly]

I know someone yesterday mentioned Arcia as a potential target for Yelich, but I don't think there was anything to back that up. Well, here's something: https://www.fishstripes.com/2018/1/24/16925838/miami-marlins-christian-yelich-mlb-trade-rumors-target-milwaukee-brewers-shortstop-orlando-arcia

 

Personally, I don't like the idea of creating a hole to fill one, and it is arguable that the team even has an OF hole to fill. I would imagine that Arcia's and Yelich's values are somewhat similar. Perhaps if the Marlins also send Starlin Castro, this works, but I think that would be a downgrade for the Brewers. Maybe the team thinks Dubon is closer to ready than a lot of us think? I'm fine with giving up prospects for Yelich, but when we start talking about fleecing the MLB roster, that's a little more scary.

 

Villar back to SS? I mean i'd rather have Arcia of course because of age but it'd be a way to give Villar a year trial run as the prosps get ready...if it doesn't work then move on from him for good. We still have him for a few more years of control. Sign Walker / trade for Kipnis etc.

[Warning Track Power]

The proposal of Arcia+Harrison+Woodruff/Burnes is richer than anything any of us has proposed. If Arcia is included, I would anticipate maybe Arcia, Harrison and Supak/Ponce but certainly not the cream of the crop SP. Even now I have a hard time believing a cream of the crop OF would also be included.

 

With Arcia in the mix, I would anticipate the deal being something more like Arcia+Ray+take your pick of an SP not named Ortiz/Woodruff/Burnes.

[Brewer Fever]

Everything I've seen and heard suggests Stearns values defense too much to downgrade at the most important defensive position. I don't see Arcia being moved anytime soon.

[Eye Black]

The article also provides a good reminder that Arcia is three months younger than Lewis Brinson.

[pogokat]

Ironically, I think I'm more comfortable moving Arcia than I am with trading Brinson.

[mlloyd10]

Yelich/Realmuto/Castro for Arcia/Harrison/Phillips/Woodruff/Pina

[82brewcrew82]

I still assure you that Darvish will be a Cub and someone asked “my opinion” not my insiders opinion on Yelich. And I said 95 percent chance that Yelich will be a Brewer based on what I know. And that still holds true. So put your Willy back in your pants and your gonna have to wait a bit for your copy of Hustler to come in.

I was highly skeptical of the Darvish stuff but that had nothing to do with HH19. I was skeptical of the web-o-trades theory but not becuase I believe or don't believe HH19.

 

Look, if my truck driving brother in law calls me about buying some bio-tech stock he got a tip on from some dude "in the know" I'm not just jumping on it. I love my brother in law and, in fact, trust him immensely. I know he isn't intentionally trying to deceive me or lead me down the wrong track but I'm still going to be skeptical. If it doesn't make sense to me I'm going to tell him it doesn't make sense to me. If I'm skeptical enough I'm going to tell him that I want to see how this stock performs before I buy into the next "tip". He is an adult and certainly understand my position so isn't going to act like a baby and stomp away mad and stop giving me "tips" because I was skeptical and explained why.

[82brewcrew82]

Ironically, I think I'm more comfortable moving Arcia than I am with trading Brinson.

I'm pretty sure I agree with you but I'm equally sure the complete opposite is what is going to happen.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

The proposal of Arcia+Harrison+Woodruff/Burnes is richer than anything any of us has proposed. If Arcia is included, I would anticipate maybe Arcia, Harrison and Supak/Ponce but certainly not the cream of the crop SP. Even now I have a hard time believing a cream of the crop OF would also be included.

 

With Arcia in the mix, I would anticipate the deal being something more like Arcia+Ray+take your pick of an SP not named Ortiz/Woodruff/Burnes.

 

I would argue that Arcia's age, cheap contract, stellar defense and years of control make him arguably more valuable than Yelich. If we are talking Arcia for Yelich, the other pieces I imagine would be minor. There's no way we include Ray, who's still a top 10 organizational prospect.

 

Now if we're talking about trading Arcia for a package that include Yelich, Castro, Realmuto or other pieces, we might be on to something. Don't discount the value that Arcia has, though. It is very, very high.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Yelich/Realmuto/Castro for Arcia/Harrison/Phillips/Woodruff/Pina

 

I think that is a big overpay on the Brewers' end. Castro's contract almost gives him negative value, and Yelich and Realmuto have asked to be traded, reducing the Marlins' leverage.

 

I would be more inclined to say Yelich/Realmuto/Castro for Arcia/Pina and maybe Broxton or a lower-level prospect like Supak or Ponce. Major league players carry a much higher value than prospects.

[brewcrewdue80]

Arcia is every bit as valuable to this team as Yelich would be when traded here. The defensive downgrade after Arcia negates all of the offensive upgrade Yeluch brings over Phillips&Brinson. And then since you still have Brinson/Phillips, yeah what a headache. Besides Shaw, Arcia was the 2nd most consistent batter after the ASB. The kid improves and I don't get why theres this down feeling on his bat in to the future. He's going to become a 5WAR SS. You dont part with that.

[Roderick]

Something no one has brought up yet, I feel REALLY bad for anyone that we ship off to that crapshow in Miami. I find it hard to believe anyone wants to play for that organization, knowing that they may have a firesale at any moment, any year, and at any time.

 

I'm pretty sure that our prospects are hoping and praying they are not the ones involved in any deal with the Marlins.

 

I'm pretty sure the opposite. More than likely they will have a clearer path to playing time in Miami than Milwaukee. We aren't talking about guys that are 29 years old and have been in Milwaukee 3 years that are being traded. The young pups just want playing time in the MLB.

 

Plus, no state income tax in Florida, so you move residence and you are going to save $$ on all your home games.

[mlloyd10]

Just going off the fact that the FO really likes Mauricio Dubon - Who can step in a play SS right away

[JosephC]

If one projects Arcia as a 2.5 WAR player moving forward, then a Yelich for Arcia + Harrison OR Phillips + Woodruff is pretty close to a fair deal.

 

But from the Brewer's end, does it make sense to move a 2.5 WAR shortstop who will probably cost something like 20 million dollars over the next five years plus two other top 100 prospects to gain a 4 WAR outfielder who will make 50+ million over the next five years? I don't think I'd open up the shortstop hole and pay the extra money when the team is already so deep in outfielder prospects.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

If one projects Arcia as a 2.5 WAR player moving forward, then a Yelich for Arcia + Harrison OR Phillips + Woodruff is pretty close to a fair deal.

 

But from the Brewer's end, does it make sense to move a 2.5 WAR shortstop who will probably cost something like 20 million dollars over the next five years plus two other top 100 prospects to gain a 4 WAR outfielder who will make 50+ million over the next five years? I don't think I'd open up the shortstop hole and pay the extra money when the team is already so deep in outfielder prospects.

 

I don't think its fair to Arcia as a 23-year-old to project him as a 2.5 WAR player. Yes, he will likely not provide the offensive value Yelich does, but he plays a premium defensive position, and his offense has improved and should continue to.

 

Offering Arcia, plus a Top 100 outfielder and a very solid starting pitching prospect is a HUGE overpay in my book.

[jerichoholicninja]

Yelich/Realmuto/Castro for Arcia/Harrison/Phillips/Woodruff/Pina

 

I think that is a big overpay on the Brewers' end. Castro's contract almost gives him negative value, and Yelich and Realmuto have asked to be traded, reducing the Marlins' leverage.

 

I would be more inclined to say Yelich/Realmuto/Castro for Arcia/Pina and maybe Broxton or a lower-level prospect like Supak or Ponce. Major league players carry a much higher value than prospects.

 

Castro's owed just under $23M over the next two years. For a 1-2 WAR, maybe even 3, 28 year old that's almost chump change in todays' game. And it's only for 2 years.

[bill hAll Star]

Yelich/Realmuto/Castro for Arcia/Harrison/Phillips/Woodruff/Pina

 

I think that is a big overpay on the Brewers' end. Castro's contract almost gives him negative value, and Yelich and Realmuto have asked to be traded, reducing the Marlins' leverage.

 

I would be more inclined to say Yelich/Realmuto/Castro for Arcia/Pina and maybe Broxton or a lower-level prospect like Supak or Ponce. Major league players carry a much higher value than prospects.

 

Castro's owed just under $23M over the next two years. For a 1-2 WAR, maybe even 3, 28 year old that's almost chump change in todays' game. And it's only for 2 years.

 

Exactly. Plus, I don’t know how much the contract stings when the roster is mostly a finished product. Not many places to worry about filling and needing $.

[tmwiese55]

With the hole at 2B for MKE Castro certainly could make sense with what HH said for 'friends'. Realmuto could too, sure Pina was fine last year but still nothing close to Realmuto. I guess if you're going to give up a big package of prospects you might as well go big, might as well ask on these guys.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Yelich/Realmuto/Castro for Arcia/Harrison/Phillips/Woodruff/Pina

 

I think that is a big overpay on the Brewers' end. Castro's contract almost gives him negative value, and Yelich and Realmuto have asked to be traded, reducing the Marlins' leverage.

 

I would be more inclined to say Yelich/Realmuto/Castro for Arcia/Pina and maybe Broxton or a lower-level prospect like Supak or Ponce. Major league players carry a much higher value than prospects.

 

Castro's owed just under $23M over the next two years. For a 1-2 WAR, maybe even 3, 28 year old that's almost chump change in todays' game. And it's only for 2 years.

 

Look at it as Yelich and Arcia cancelling each other out. Would you give up Harrison, Phillips, Woodruff and Pina for Realmuto and Castro? Pina isn't just a throw-in in this deal, as he's a solid catcher. So we are talking two Top 100 outfielders and a young rotation piece for a decent catcher upgrade and a solid SS. Boy, that still seems rich.

[superfly]

 

I think that is a big overpay on the Brewers' end. Castro's contract almost gives him negative value, and Yelich and Realmuto have asked to be traded, reducing the Marlins' leverage.

 

I would be more inclined to say Yelich/Realmuto/Castro for Arcia/Pina and maybe Broxton or a lower-level prospect like Supak or Ponce. Major league players carry a much higher value than prospects.

 

Castro's owed just under $23M over the next two years. For a 1-2 WAR, maybe even 3, 28 year old that's almost chump change in todays' game. And it's only for 2 years.

 

Look at it as Yelich and Arcia cancelling each other out. Would you give up Harrison, Phillips, Woodruff and Pina for Realmuto and Castro? Pina isn't just a throw-in in this deal, as he's a solid catcher. So we are talking two Top 100 outfielders and a young rotation piece for a decent catcher upgrade and a solid SS. Boy, that still seems rich.

 

Put Barraclough in there and throw them a bone in the form of an upside prospect then. I'm not a big believer in Woodruff so even without Barraclough it doesn't seem too rich to me. You have to give to get in the business.

[pacopete4]

I don't see the trades happening that are being proposed with Milwaukee giving up 4-6 players. It just doesn't seem like a Stearns move. So far as GM he has never made any type of move like that.

[brewcrewdue80]

Something no one has brought up yet, I feel REALLY bad for anyone that we ship off to that crapshow in Miami. I find it hard to believe anyone wants to play for that organization, knowing that they may have a firesale at any moment, any year, and at any time.

 

I'm pretty sure that our prospects are hoping and praying they are not the ones involved in any deal with the Marlins.

 

I'm pretty sure the opposite. More than likely they will have a clearer path to playing time in Miami than Milwaukee. We aren't talking about guys that are 29 years old and have been in Milwaukee 3 years that are being traded. The young pups just want playing time in the MLB.

 

Plus, no state income tax in Florida, so you move residence and you are going to save $$ on all your home games.

 

Except the residence for South Florida...Take a 3bedroom here for 1k-2 a month or under 200k house purchase becomes 3300-7500 a month or 880k-2million down there. They are young pups so 500k down there is worse than 500k up here and State Taxed. Now, when they are making a million more or higher a year FL will be better. But the expense in Miami and the areas around are insane.