Christian Yelich

[SomewhereInTime]

Feel bad for Pirates and Marlins fans. I'm sure the Brewers will someday be in this situation but it just stinks for these different franchises that they are basically farm systems for the larger markets. I love baseball and I love watching my Brewers but it does stink that they are at a disadvantage. To the above post, Yelich is probably stuck where he is. It should be a red flag to anyone that is a Marlin for signing any contract with them.

 

Oh you mean like two years ago when the Brewers sold just about everyone to rebuild? And I'll pass on feeling sorry for teams that have WS trophies, especially the Marlins who have two in my lifetime. There are really only a few teams the Brewers either have a better full history than, or better recent history than (last 20 years or so). I don't feel sorry for any team.

[RockCoCougars]

I still think that Yelich is somewhat overrated, but I'd be ok with Brinson as the centerpiece. I'd give them a couple more prospects but certainly not upper tier guys. Would be royally ticked if Burnes was involved.

[brewcrewdue80]

I fully expect Brinson to be gone in this trade. But then to add Burnes, I don't agree with. Chris Sale two main trade gets was Yoan Moncada and Michael Kopech. And then that's it the other 2 aren't in their top 15 in the system. Yes Moncada was 1-4 along those lines, but Brinson is top 20. Kopech was a top 100 about to climb but he wasn't top 20 like he is today when that trade happened.

 

I don't agree that we need to send what would be termed A and B prospects with more B prospects. We are so kind to offer 4 players who are expected to make the Majors some at All Star potential.

 

Jose Quintana another, yes a top 10 guy return but then just Dylan Cease around the 60s and 2 nothings.

 

Yet the Suggestion of Brinson (18), Burnes (74) Diaz who I love and a former 60-90 guy who I doubt is below 125 atm. Freddy Peralta who also should be a top 10 guy in the Organization after last season. Pennington is more like it for the 4th player in the trade.

We have a great system, 4 guys in our Org top 10 is not needed to get Yelich. That is why it's so painful to these other guys here. Name me trades that took 4 of a team's top 10 organizational rankings. I highly doubt you'll find one.

 

What makes sense to me is obviously Brinson. I'll include Diaz as the expectation is that he is 3rd now in pecking order of 2b. Luis Ortiz as his IP and health has him around 6 or 7 I'd guess in SP additions but the SP expectaton is without doubt there, and Pennington to round out the trade. Maybe instead of Pennington you put up Grisham or even Ray, 1st round selections who've not yet performed. There's Lutz, Erceg, even Ponce and Bickford, the system is so deep! With Potential. Not Reality results that Yelich provides. You gotta assume Santana is moved quickly and he's clearly worth a top 50 guy on his own, or that idea of Kipnis/Salazar. You vastly improve potentially 3 spots on the ML team immensely. Salazar appears to me every bit Archer and maybe better if he went Full seasons. You are putting Broxton/Phillips as your CF with Braun/Yelich. Platoon of Thames/Aguilar. Kipnis. Arcia. Shaw. Pina/Vogt. Yelich easily pushes down Broxton/Thames/Villar in the lineup over last season's mix. It's scary I think should Shaw remain near the batter he was in '17

[SomewhereInTime]

Have to say I was wrong about not wanting Yelich. I didn't realize he had 5 years left on a team-friendly contract.

 

I would trade Brinson, no question. I'm actually a bit iffy on Brinson's value. My concern is it would take Brinson and a few of our other top-100 prospects who I don't want to part with.

 

This is my feeling exactly, I'm greatly in favor of a deal centering around Brinson, but the asking price here could be huge.

[danzig6767]

I read somewhere that Miami could ask interested teams to take on a decent sized chunk of Wei-Yin Chen's contract. If so, the prospect haul in return would lessen.

[bill hAll Star]

I read somewhere that Miami could ask interested teams to take on a decent sized chunk of Wei-Yin Chen's contract. If so, the prospect haul in return would lessen.

 

It’s a possibility, but they’re mostly out of cost-cutting mode.

 

If someone offered, they’d maybe oblige, but their payroll over the next 2-3 years will probably just be Chen and 24 arby/prw-arby guys.

 

It’s something I’m sure they’d like to move but they have little motivation at this point.

[MadThinker88]

....

We have a great system, 4 guys in our Org top 10 is not needed to get Yelich. That is why it's so painful to these other guys here. Name me trades that took 4 of a team's top 10 organizational rankings. I highly doubt you'll find one. ...

 

Off the top of my head I was able to get one that was close. Going into 2011, BA ranked the Tribe system as 7th after having it 3rd the prior year (sound familiar?).

 

In a system that had Corey Kluber ranked #26, Hector Rondon ranked #15 and Tony Wolters ranked #8 (long before his conversion to catcher) & Lonnie Chisenhall at#1 a deal involving other pieces was made. That summer (believe it was June) the Tribe dealt #2 Alex White, #4 Drew Pomeranz, #9 Joe Gardner (all pitchers) and depth position player Matt McBride to Coloardo.

 

In return they got 1 player...... Ubaldo Jimenez who was under contract/ control for the rest of 2011, 2012 & 2013

 

Now HH19 hinted that IF the Marlins make the deal with the Brewers, it would sting. I don't recall seeing it said to be 4 of the top 10. Maybe that means 2 top 10 and 2 top of the next group of 10 after that. Maybe its a different mix all together. There is a lot of control & value for Yelich. Maybe the trade involves more than Yelich. We shall see.... IF the trade gets made.

[TJseven7]

I'm really not sure if we should be emptying our farm and you have to assume P prospects would be involved, kind of the last thing MKE should be giving up. Kind of a numbers game there so need as many as possible to get a few to hit. Don't want to play scared but the Nats, Dodgers, and Cubs are basically loaded. I'd rather do smaller less risky things to be in the WC chase and with some luck the division while keeping the farm intact for a couple years down the line. Just adding one more P along the lines of Cobb probably puts their over/under on Ws around 84-85. You're involved in that ballpark while keeping your farm and still have fairly low payroll.

I'd go Brinson, Burns, I. Diaz, Peralta, and Pennington and not feel like the farm was emptied.

 

If we offer anything close to that I'll be livid. If it takes more than the 1st 2nd and 5th of those 5 I want no part of this and I love Yelich. That's more than Quintana took by far. Its a team friendly contract for 5 years of yelich... its not free. 5th year is 15 mil.

 

If the market is "cold" on santana then the price on yelich better not be more than Brinson Burnes/Ortiz. Just because the rangers and astros screwed up in deals with us doesnt mean we send every "spare" piece we have to miami.

 

People including Ortiz and Diaz baffle me too. Both are insanely young and with a good half season are easily back in the top 100.

[packer822]

I would go sweet Lew...Broxton..Ortiz....Dubon....Diplan....I would not include Monte....Erceg...I.Diaz...or Burnes

[MNBrew]

I may be wrong, but I have my doubts that it'd be a 5-for-1 unless at least the last 2 guys of the 5 are lower-level lottery tickets (Lind-trade sort of return). I expect a price with some pain but not all 5 coming from our Top 30.

[sveumrules]

I like that Stearns has been casting a wide net, but I just don't see Yelich fitting in our OF picture given that I believe the long term goal is to field three plus defensive OFs.

 

Since his debut in 2013 Christian has been bottom 5 by both UZR & DRS in arm rating & even with all Stanton's various injuries never logged a single inning in right. He is not a RF.

 

He has played 2,025 innings in CF grading out at -12 by DRS & -9 by UZR. Maybe some of that is the larger CF in Miami, but he likely projects as an average at best CF defensively even if you account for less ground to cover in Milwaukee & more realistically is a below average option in CF.

 

In 3,535 career innings in LF Yelich has posted a +32 DRS & +12 UZR. He appears to be a well above average LF, which generally fits with his good speed/poor arm profile. Braun is pretty locked in LF.

 

If the package is Brinson plus whatever else, a remaining OF of Braun/Yelich/Domingo would be below average across the board.

[Eye Black]

A few random thoughts for the group...

 

- Let’s say I told you these two things were certainties: (1) the Brewers will acquire Yelich, and (2) the Brewers will appear in the 2021 World Series. Which players currently in the organization (not the just current MLB roster) could you guarantee (or at least confidently surmise) would be a part of the champagne popping celebration after clinching the 2021 NL Pennant?

 

For me the answer would probably be: Yelich, Arcia, and maybe Hader. Those are the only players I would be truly surprised to see moved as the Brewers FO builds a championship roster. I think there are a lot of pieces left between now and our WS roster, but five years of cost control for Christian Yelich is a good start. I trust the current front office to get good value in trades more often than not. They aren’t going to win them all because predicting the future is hard (some would say impossible), but if they continue to make calculated moves they will improve incrementally with many of their trades.

 

- You can’t base any players value off a singular statistic, trend, or theory, but I did find this sentence from a Fangraphs Article at least encouraging for those that believe Yelich could be a Miller Park hitting savant... “Since Yelich debuted, he’s ranked in the 64th percentile in terms of wRC+ at home, but he’s ranked in the 94th percentile in terms of wRC+ on the road. Marlins Park doesn’t make it easy for lefties, and Yelich’s extra-base power has already been suppressed.”

 

- One staple of Astros trades even after they turned the proverbial corner was getting a Rookie ball lottery ticket thrown into the deal along with acquiring a good-to-star caliber player. It will be interesting to me to see if the Brewers front office take this approach with any of their impending trades.

 

- The current front office has proven to me they can build a farm system that isn’t just based off getting top ten picks. Heck, for the most part the top ten draft selections aren’t even near the most valuable prospects in the system. I have no doubt that if the team is struggling in future years the current front office knows how to turn current assets on expiring contracts into future assets. The depth of the farm system is important because now there is a foundation built and I can’t envision any point in the near future having the prospect shelves bare like they were 5-6 years ago.

[82brewcrew82]

That would probably be a really nice thread on its own.

[Lathund]

Yelich is a fantastic player, and would be an immediate upgrade who's under team control for a reasonable salary for 5 years. So I certainly wouldn't mind if he suited up for the Brewers next year. However I don't Think it's the best use of resources: For one thing he'll be very, very expensive. Yelich is a player who's valuable to basically every team in the League that isn't either completely set and committed in CF for the foreseeable future, or who are just entering a rebuild. It'll take a massive haul, anything less than that and someone else will come in and offer just that. I've seen many posts essentially saying "He's better than Brinson, and it's probably likely Brinson doesn't become better, so we should make the trade". I don't necessarily disagree with the premise; Brinson could be an all-star CF, or his hit tool could never develop or he has injury struggles etc. But it's not Brinson for Yelich, it's Brinson plus 2-3 other good prospects. There's also an opportunity cost; Could those prospects bring back more of an improvement if spend on pitching? Yelich is an upgrade, but from Brinson, Phillips, Harrison, Ray, Grisham, Lutz et al I Think it's worth rollling the dice that one or two will turn into good players. Yelich also isn't the great defensive CF that Stearns seems to want, and if Yelich is signed more as a corner OF then trading away one (or both) of our top ML-ready CF prospects doesn't seem too wise.

 

There are obviously many different permutations; exactly who will we need to part with? Will there also be a Santana trade for pitching? Signing Cain? Some scenarios I like more than others, but in most of them I still find that I prefer to skip the Yelich trade. Trade Santana+ for pitching, keep both our young CFs, and sign Cain if you want to improve the OF for the next couple of years is my preferred course of action. Simply standing pat in the outfield and signing a FA pitcher honestly isn't the worst thing either, even if that likely means some dead Money in a few years.

[clancyphile]

A few random thoughts for the group...

 

- Let’s say I told you these two things were certainties: (1) the Brewers will acquire Yelich, and (2) the Brewers will appear in the 2021 World Series. Which players currently in the organization (not the just current MLB roster) could you guarantee (or at least confidently surmise) would be a part of the champagne popping celebration after clinching the 2021 NL Pennant?

 

For me the answer would probably be: Yelich, Arcia, and maybe Hader. Those are the only players I would be truly surprised to see moved as the Brewers FO builds a championship roster. I think there are a lot of pieces left between now and our WS roster, but five years of cost control for Christian Yelich is a good start. I trust the current front office to get good value in trades more often than not. They aren’t going to win them all because predicting the future is hard (some would say impossible), but if they continue to make calculated moves they will improve incrementally with many of their trades.

 

- You can’t base any players value off a singular statistic, trend, or theory, but I did find this sentence from a Fangraphs Article at least encouraging for those that believe Yelich could be a Miller Park hitting savant... “Since Yelich debuted, he’s ranked in the 64th percentile in terms of wRC+ at home, but he’s ranked in the 94th percentile in terms of wRC+ on the road. Marlins Park doesn’t make it easy for lefties, and Yelich’s extra-base power has already been suppressed.”

 

- One staple of Astros trades even after they turned the proverbial corner was getting a Rookie ball lottery ticket thrown into the deal along with acquiring a good-to-star caliber player. It will be interesting to me if see the Brewers front office take this approach with any of their impending trades.

 

- The current front office has proven to me they can build a farm system that isn’t just based off getting top ten picks. Heck, for the most part the top ten draft selections aren’t even near the most valuable prospects in the system. I have no doubt that if the team is struggling in future years the current front office knows how to turn current assets on expiring contracts into future assets. The depth of the farm system is important because now there is a foundation built and I can’t envision any time in the near future having the prospect shelves bare like they were 5-6 years ago.

 

1. I'd have ten: Yelich, Arcia, Hader, Davies (third arby year, probably #4 starter), Braun (if that close to the Series, I don't see the Brewers buying out his 2021 year), Woodruff (#5 starter/long relief guy), Suter (would be in his second arby year, and would be a bullpen piece or back of the rotation), Knebel (third arby year), Phillips (outfielder), Perez (bench).

 

Furthermore, from the Brewerfan Top 25, I'd see these players on that team: Burnes (rotation), Stokes (outfield), Hiura (2B), Peralta (bullpen), Erceg (3B).

 

I think this roster is closer than people think, especially looking at the Brewerfan Top 25. Think about how many players there you could see on the 2021 World Series Champion Milwaukee Brewers.

 

2. That info on Yelich is interesting... I've always felt that if you know the park effects, you may be able to project some improvement OR find a player worth a much closer look.

 

3. That is a good approach. I'd like to see Stearns go further, and decline having a team pay art of a salary. "We'll take on ALL of the bad contract, but you give us a Top 20 prospect or two in return for that."

 

4. I think that the farm system needs to always be stocked. Always be prospect hunting. Depending on where the Brewers are at, it could take the form of moving a Keon Broxton to give Phillips/Brinson playing time, it could be moving a star to get prospects, it could be getting that Rookie-level throw-in (or two) for an established player, it could even be dealing a Thames or Aguilar and being willing to take a step back to be more competitive in the future.

[JosephC]

I'd aim for eating Starlin's contract over Prado's personally. At least with Castro you get a younger guy, Prado is Moses.

 

Nope, taking Prado is an essential part of this trade. Removing him would require the Brewers to throw another organizational top 10 prospect in the mix. Probably Erceg as the trade would likely include two other outfielders (so not Ray or Grisham). Would throw in Castro for a minor prospect...someone like Carlos Herrera, Zack Brown or Demi Orimoloye.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

I'd aim for eating Starlin's contract over Prado's personally. At least with Castro you get a younger guy, Prado is Moses.

 

Nope, taking Prado is an essential part of this trade. Removing him would require the Brewers to throw another organizational top 10 prospect in the mix. Probably Erceg as the trade would likely include two other outfielders (so not Ray or Grisham). Would throw in Castro for a minor prospect...someone like Carlos Herrera, Zack Brown or Demi Orimoloye.

 

Is this pure speculation, or do you know something? Because this is written like an absolute, and Prado's name hasn't been bandied about anywhere. He wouldn't be a bad guy to have, but with Perez already on the team, he would be somewhat redundant.

[RollieTime]

One avenue to think about is what if the Brewers acquire Yelich, but decide to keep Santana?

 

What if they decided to keep Santana and move him or Braun to first base? Braun may become more open to moving to first base the older he gets and the more competitive the Brewers get. This would allow a smooth transfer of inserting Yelich in left since he has a below average arm.

 

The second option (and my opinion least likely to occur) is moving Santana to first. This would allow Yelich to either play right field or switching Braun back over to right and inserting Yelich in left. Yelich has never played right field in the majors and has only played one game in right field in the minors. I don’t see Yelich playing in right field this season.

 

The third option is an interesting one. What if Yelich was acquired and inserted as the starting first baseman? Hear me out. Yelich did play first base in high school, but transitioned into the outfield when the Marlins drafted him. He was most likely pretty solid at first base if he played there throughout high school being as highly regarded as he was and not moved to a different position such as centerfield or shortstop. Also, this allows Braun and Santana to remain in left and right respectively. The only transition is Yelich becoming acclimated to first base again. He is 6’3” and would be a tall body over at first.

 

This third option would only be to start the season and it could be adjusted accordingly. When an inevitable injury occurs between one of our 3 outfielders, Yelich can take their spot until they return. If Phillips/Brinson (whichever is not traded) struggle in center or there is an injury, Yelich can move back out into the outfield. This would push Aguilar into the starting role at first, with Perez as the emergency backup.

 

This would also put the Brewers in a position to trade Thames and Broxton.

 

Yelich could play 40 games at first or 130, depending on injuries and performances in the outfield. It is an idea that would create a fun lineup to watch to begin the season:

 

CF Phillips/Brinson

1B Yelich

LF Braun

3B Shaw

RF Santana

C Pina/Vogt

2B Villar

SS Arcia

P

 

I am not sure how I would feel about doing the third option, but it is one way that the offense could remain intact while adding a big impact bat to the lineup.

[StearnsFTW]

I'd aim for eating Starlin's contract over Prado's personally. At least with Castro you get a younger guy, Prado is Moses.

 

Nope, taking Prado is an essential part of this trade. Removing him would require the Brewers to throw another organizational top 10 prospect in the mix. Probably Erceg as the trade would likely include two other outfielders (so not Ray or Grisham). Would throw in Castro for a minor prospect...someone like Carlos Herrera, Zack Brown or Demi Orimoloye.

 

Is this pure speculation, or do you know something? Because this is written like an absolute, and Prado's name hasn't been bandied about anywhere. He wouldn't be a bad guy to have, but with Perez already on the team, he would be somewhat redundant.

 

He's going strictly by surplus value.

 

I don't think the Marlins care much about their payroll at this point.

 

Edit: I'm going to retract that last part. Their payroll will still be around $70,000,000 (Plus $13,000,000 to buy out Volguez) after a Yelich trade. Assuming they get all minimum guys.

[JosephC]

I'd aim for eating Starlin's contract over Prado's personally. At least with Castro you get a younger guy, Prado is Moses.

 

Nope, taking Prado is an essential part of this trade. Removing him would require the Brewers to throw another organizational top 10 prospect in the mix. Probably Erceg as the trade would likely include two other outfielders (so not Ray or Grisham). Would throw in Castro for a minor prospect...someone like Carlos Herrera, Zack Brown or Demi Orimoloye.

 

Is this pure speculation, or do you know something? Because this is written like an absolute, and Prado's name hasn't been bandied about anywhere. He wouldn't be a bad guy to have, but with Perez already on the team, he would be somewhat redundant.

 

Pure speculation. Just saw references that folks on the board would be willing to trade Brinson for Yelich (which I would do as well in a straight up situation), and just wanted to point out that it would take way more than Brinson. Start with Brinson and another top 100 prospect (if I were the Marlins the next guy I would want would be Woodruff as he's an immediate plug-in that the fans can see right away), and then add Prado as the Marlin's last big salary-dump player...and that is a solid foundation for a trade. Then add some various pieces in after that, but the Brewers would probably still be looking at throwing in about another 30 million in surplus value (for me that was Ortiz, Diaz and Broxton).

 

Yelich's surplus value is well in excess of 150 million by my calculations. Not unreasonable to put him at a 4 WAR player over the next five years since that has been his average over the last three years. Doing so puts his annual values at 36.64, 39.20, 41.96, 44.88, 48.04 million for a total of 210.72 million. He will make 58.25 million over that span so the surplus value comes out to +152.47 million which is a pretty ridiculous figure, and frankly a figure so high the Marlins probably couldn't expect to get that sort of return in a trade. So Prado, who has negative value but still is probably a 1 WAR player per season, would probably be considered by the Marlins to be a zero value player so just dump his remaining salary in there as a completely negative number (he has 28.5 million in salary over the next two seasons). So subtract the 28.5 million from the +152.47 and we are looking at about 124 million dollars in prospect surplus value heading back to the Marlins. That still may be too high for them to achieve but it's a good place to start. Brinson = 70.98. Woodruff = 18.9. Diaz = 11.45. Ortiz = 11.45. Those four are top 10 organizational prospects and the total for those players is 113 milion, still about 10 million dollars short in surplus value but definitely close enough to be in the ballpark. Just illustrates for how high the price on Yelich would be. I'll stick with the guess that whoever trades for him has to take Prado's deal and are likely giving up one top 25 overall prospect and another top 100 prospect overall at a minimum...and depending on the players involved it could still represent a sell-low by Miami.

 

I do hope he gets traded because analyzing the return would be pretty interesting.

[JohnBriggs12]

Forget his surplus value. His value is only what teams are willing to offer as he's not interested in staying a Marlin. The best offer gets him. Brewers have both the means with a strong system and the motive to compete starting this year for the next 4-5 seasons so they should be able and motivated to make a very competitive offer.

[FVBrewerFan]

I like that Stearns has been casting a wide net, but I just don't see Yelich fitting in our OF picture given that I believe the long term goal is to field three plus defensive OFs.

 

Since his debut in 2013 Christian has been bottom 5 by both UZR & DRS in arm rating & even with all Stanton's various injuries never logged a single inning in right. He is not a RF.

 

He has played 2,025 innings in CF grading out at -12 by DRS & -9 by UZR. Maybe some of that is the larger CF in Miami, but he likely projects as an average at best CF defensively even if you account for less ground to cover in Milwaukee & more realistically is a below average option in CF.

 

In 3,535 career innings in LF Yelich has posted a +32 DRS & +12 UZR. He appears to be a well above average LF, which generally fits with his good speed/poor arm profile. Braun is pretty locked in LF.

 

If the package is Brinson plus whatever else, a remaining OF of Braun/Yelich/Domingo would be below average across the board.

 

If Santana is moved you could go LF Yelich CF Phillips/Broxton RF Braun.

[pacopete4]

I can't see Braun making a move back over to RF. He didn't really want to do it in the first place and he wasn't very good at it. You would be better off going Braun - Yelich - Phillips or Braun - Phillips - Yelich.

[tmwiese55]

I'd agree that even though Yelich hasn't played RF before that he'd be much easier and better at it than Braun at this point.

[CheeseheadInQC]

I think I've pretty much resigned myself to the fact that this is going to involve one of Brinson, Hiura and Harrison (probably Brinson) and one of Woodruff, Burnes and Ortiz, and I'm OK with that. However if that is the case, I hope that any additional prospects dealt don't come from that group or the Phillips, Diaz, Erceg, Ray, Grisham, Peralta, Lutz group.