Trading Villar

[Devinep]

I’m not saying he’s a must trade. Personally I’d trade Perez and get a real 2B, using Villar as a super sub instead of Perez. I was wondering what teams would be a good match for Villar though. Here’s the best trade partners I’ve thought of.

 

Blue Jays - they want someone who can backup both 2B and SS for their injury prone regulars

 

Padres - want a SS and could gamble with Villar there while rebuilding.

 

Tigers - they’re gonna trade Kinsler (maybe even to Brewers)

 

Royals - could play him or Merrifeld at 3B

 

Angels - I’m sure the Angels are aiming higher than Villar. They have holes at both 2B and 3B

 

Would hear teams give up anything decent for Villar? Or is Stearns Better off keeping Villar? Even as a bench piece?

[TooLiveBrew]

At this point I'd be surprised to see another team would give up anything of real value for Villar.

 

If the goal in trading him is to free up payroll, then yes move him & hope you can hit on a high-upside but far away lottery ticket (like a teenage pitcher).

 

If the goal is to get something of actual value, as opposed to more of a long shot, then I think you have to hold onto him & hope 2017 was an outlier much more than 2016 was.

 

If you go back through his MiLB career numbers, he's always been a high-K, high-ish BB, high-ish SB & CS, lower AVG player with mediocre power/XBH. 2016 was by far his best professional season, and at the time IMO it did look like it was a young player putting everything together (in terms of the eye test). That made the start to last season all the more frustrating.

 

It's just one case, & not nearly as common as you'd hope, but I think Segura's resurgence after Milwaukee can be a lesson learned. Both in that a young player who showed a flash of brilliance with a breakout season can recover his performance... but as well that it sometimes takes a change of scenery & coaching staff to occur.

 

I personally hold out hope that the Brewers can help Villar rediscover his form, & not have to hope it works out for him with another club.

[Devinep]

Good points. The tough part IMO is how to have him reestablish himself. Can they allow horrendous production again to possibly keep them from a playoff spot? Or Do they trade Perez to allow Villar to be the utility guy?

 

I have a hard time, with a strong young team, to just throw Villar back out there as a starter and hope for another 2016

[endaround]

Villar's 2016 was BABIP driven. He's not going to maintain a .373 BABIP. So while he is not as bad as he was last year, he is likely what his career line says he is, .256/.325/.397 with a wRC+ of 94. Basically a league average offensive player. Which would be fine for middle infield except he is a horrendous fielder. He is likely the worst short stop anyone on this board has ever seen with a UZR/150 of -18.2 in 2016. His play at 2B isn't much better with a UZR/150 of -13.6 in 2017. His bat isn't strong enough to make up for his glove. He may have a future in the outfield, but that won't be with the Brewers.

 

His defense is so bad you really don't want him playing the field if at all possible which makes him a bad utility candidate. I see him going as a stopgap to another team if the Brewers trade for a real 2B (Hernandez, Kinsler, or Gordon).

[JohnBriggs12]

The biggest mistake would be holding on to him in hopes he re-establishes value. How do you justify him being back in the starting lineup? If he can't be dealt, non-tender him. They waived a much more established player last spring (Gennett) to make room for him. That decision cost them a playoff berth. If I'm the GM who made that mistake, I want no part of Villar going forward.

[MrTPlush]

The biggest mistake would be holding on to him in hopes he re-establishes value. How do you justify him being back in the starting lineup? If he can't be dealt, non-tender him. They waived a much more established player last spring (Gennett) to make room for him. That decision cost them a playoff berth. If I'm the GM who made that mistake, I want no part of Villar going forward.

 

So you are basing your decision off of Scooter General...yikes. That is exactly how I would never want Stearns to think. We would be a solid 110 loss team yearly.

[monty57]

I think the Brewers are going to bring in someone to be the starting second baseman.

 

Assuming that happens: With Sogard re-signed and likely to be the primary utility IF, and at least two of Phillips, Brinson and Broxton on the roster, one of Perez or Villar is likely the odd man out while the other is pretty much the 25th man on the roster.

 

I think someone would give us decent value for Perez, as teams are now looking for versatile players. Therefore, I would trade Perez and hang onto Villar as the second utility guy with a chance of working his way into more playing time if he can show signs of life. If Villar doesn't do much, then by the end of the 2018 season/start of 2019, we should have a prospect who can fill the utility role for league minimum, so we would then say goodbye to Villar.

 

To the question of what we could get for him, I'd say not much. I don't even think we'd get a "lottery ticket" teenager. At best, I'd expect a non-prospect roster filler for Biloxi. If I'm right on that, we're better off letting him get sporadic PT to see if he can show some life.

[Jenkins5]

Marlins dealing Gordon....Villar still young, talented, and cheap enough to go to Marlins. Maybe a deal involving Broxton for Yelich (maybe take Gordon as well) fill with some prospects like Ray

[mlloyd10]

Marlins dealing Gordon....Villar still young, talented, and cheap enough to go to Marlins. Maybe a deal involving Broxton for Yelich (maybe take Gordon as well) fill with some prospects like Ray

 

Yelich will cost a lot more than Broxton... Yelich will cost Phillips and two of the Brewers top 10 prospects.

[Jenkins5]

Marlins dealing Gordon....Villar still young, talented, and cheap enough to go to Marlins. Maybe a deal involving Broxton for Yelich (maybe take Gordon as well) fill with some prospects like Ray

 

Yelich will cost a lot more than Broxton... Yelich will cost Phillips and two of the Brewers top 10 prospects.

 

Depends. They are going into full rebuild mode. They want to clear payroll. Broxton isn't a center piece of the deal. He is a guy they can plug and play who has track record. He is still very boom or bust guy. There is plenty of ceiling with him. Broxton, Ray Diplan could possibly get it done. If Brewers are willing to eat Ziegler or Tazawa's contracts... Could help lower price.

 

I think it is foolish to say 3 top 10 prospects because that is claiming all systems are equal. They are not. Most of our 10-20 prospects would be top 10 in a system like the Angels or even Cubs now. Our 5-10 could be top 1-3 for many clubs. You judge your baseline off this is a good young, controllable player....he should get 3 top 10 prospects. 1) He is not that cheap while controllable. he will make 7, 9.5, 12, 14, and 15 over the next 5 years. That is different than trading for similar player who is pre-arby or early in his arby. 2) If a team is getting 3 top 10 prospect from us..... You are getting an elite talent. Not a .290 .810 OPS guy. I would say Domingo Santana has more value than Yelich since he is younger, 6.5 million dollars cheaper will hit for similar average, higher OPS, and while he doesn't have the speed, he has more power than Yelich. So essential your claim is we could trade him to a team like the Braves with a strong system (still) and steal 3 top 10 prospects? I doubt it. If so, he'd be traded, we'd clean up and insert Phillips everyday there.

 

I still think Villar and Broxton have good value. They are uber talented, controllable, cheap, and pre prime players. For a month Broxton will be an elite player before he sucks for a month, then he will be elite, then suck again....Teams may buy knowing he has that elite talent in him and he is still growing. He has only like 600 career ABs right now. Villar was one of the top middle infielders in the game for a year. That talent is there. Like Segura, maybe contract stuff or putting pressure to do more caused him to drop off but he has it in him to get back. We could trade him now and next year we looking at him breaking back out like Segura. Not saying we shouldn't trade him but fact is people around baseball know these guys can play at a high level and will buy upside. On a rebuilding team, why wouldn't you?

[AKCheesehead]

I think the Brewers are going to bring in someone to be the starting second baseman.

 

Assuming that happens: With Sogard re-signed and likely to be the primary utility IF, and at least two of Phillips, Brinson and Broxton on the roster, one of Perez or Villar is likely the odd man out while the other is pretty much the 25th man on the roster.

 

I think someone would give us decent value for Perez, as teams are now looking for versatile players. Therefore, I would trade Perez and hang onto Villar as the second utility guy with a chance of working his way into more playing time if he can show signs of life. If Villar doesn't do much, then by the end of the 2018 season/start of 2019, we should have a prospect who can fill the utility role for league minimum, so we would then say goodbye to Villar.

 

To the question of what we could get for him, I'd say not much. I don't even think we'd get a "lottery ticket" teenager. At best, I'd expect a non-prospect roster filler for Biloxi. If I'm right on that, we're better off letting him get sporadic PT to see if he can show some life.

 

I don't disagree with any of the above. But, as far as the approach to take I think it depends on weighing potential long term vs short term goals here, with regards to your 2nd paragraph in particular. I agree Perez should bring more in terms of trade value. On the other hand, my opinion is that Perez also would be of greater benefit to have as the 25th man in 2018. So then to me it becomes an admittedly oversimplified question of: Is it better to have Villar as 25th man and an ok prospect gained from a Perez trade, or have Perez as the 25th man and a pretty dicey prospect from the Villar trade? If it were my decision I would tend to prefer option B, personally.

[brewcrewdue80]

Im of belief Sogard is signed as a waivable backup to use as a safrty valve. His value may come at the ability to empower Stearns in trade talks. "We have Villar and Sogard, I don't need (so and so) if it costs me (Brinson/Hader et al) the offer is (so and so)"

 

Stearns gets his guy and simply moves on from Sogard. The only auestion is why sign him before Rule 5 draft? Unless theres heated talk between Stearns and whomever already from last season on a guy.

[Warning Track Power]

Marlins dealing Gordon....Villar still young, talented, and cheap enough to go to Marlins. Maybe a deal involving Broxton for Yelich (maybe take Gordon as well) fill with some prospects like Ray

If the Marlins would do Villar and Broxton for Yelich and Gordon, I would not hang up the phone until the paperwork was done. Yes, the Brewers take on salary, but they also have 2/3 of their OF set for the next 6 years with Yelich and Santana, which also frees you up to deal Brinson or Phillips for pitching. A lineup of: Gordon, Yelich, Braun, Shaw, Santana, Thames, Pina, Arcia is quite good.

[pacopete4]

Marlins dealing Gordon....Villar still young, talented, and cheap enough to go to Marlins. Maybe a deal involving Broxton for Yelich (maybe take Gordon as well) fill with some prospects like Ray

If the Marlins would do Villar and Broxton for Yelich and Gordon, I would not hang up the phone until the paperwork was done. Yes, the Brewers take on salary, but they also have 2/3 of their OF set for the next 6 years with Yelich and Santana, which also frees you up to deal Brinson or Phillips for pitching. A lineup of: Gordon, Yelich, Braun, Shaw, Santana, Thames, Pina, Arcia is quite good.

 

If we went and got Yelich and Gordon, we might as well go sign Lucroy to a 2yr, $20M contract and secure our catching position too.

 

1. Gordon- 2B

2. Yelich- CF

3. Braun- LF

4. Shaw- 3B

5. Santana- RF

6. Thames- 1B

7. Lucroy- C

8. Arcia

 

Then go and sign Arrieta like some want to do (3yr, $65M w/ 4th-year buyout) and find a reliever or two in the process and you just might have something next season.

[FVBrewerFan]

I like this. If Villar/Broxton gets you Yelich/Gordon then maybe Oliver Drake gets you Kershaw.

[Warning Track Power]

I like this. If Villar/Broxton gets you Yelich/Gordon then maybe Oliver Drake gets you Kershaw.

I think the thought process is the idea of salary sheds for cheap inexpensive pieces. While highly unlikely, I could see something like this if a team were willing to take on Chen as well.

[KeithStone53151]

I like this. If Villar/Broxton gets you Yelich/Gordon then maybe Oliver Drake gets you Kershaw.

I think the thought process is the idea of salary sheds for cheap inexpensive pieces. While highly unlikely, I could see something like this if a team were willing to take on Chen as well.

 

This is my thought as well. I personally don't like the idea of trading for either Yelich or Gordon, but if they want to dump salary bad enough to do this deal...it's a no brainer for the Brewers and Phillips or Brinson become expendable(probably Phillips). It's highly likely the Marlins get better offers than that one though.

[TURBO]

Either Villar is our every day 2B because we believe he can regain some of that 2016 swagger, or I hope he is gone. I just don't think he holds a lot of value as a super sub, or a guy off the bench. His defense is horrible, so why would we want him entering games in late innings? He is a bad base runner, so how could we consider him a super pinch runner? I see zero value in him if he isn't a starter, with the chance to play every day and improve. I was never quite on board with him to begin with, he had a lot of things go his way in 2016, but the base running was so horrid, I just couldn't see him as anything other than a one year wonder.

[Warning Track Power]

Either Villar is our every day 2B because we believe he can regain some of that 2016 swagger, or I hope he is gone. I just don't think he holds a lot of value as a super sub, or a guy off the bench. His defense is horrible, so why would we want him entering games in late innings? He is a bad base runner, so how could we consider him a super pinch runner? I see zero value in him if he isn't a starter, with the chance to play every day and improve. I was never quite on board with him to begin with, he had a lot of things go his way in 2016, but the base running was so horrid, I just couldn't see him as anything other than a one year wonder.

I tend to feel this way about Villar as well. His D and CS% negate any great role as a super utility. This isn't like tolerating Carlos Gomez early in his career, because his D always played. While I still think his offensive ceiling is higher than Hernan Perez, Perez's defensive versatility puts him as more valuable as the super sub. I would love to include Villar as part of a package for a Yelich, Archer, etc...

[FVBrewerFan]

So, if you guys can see the flaws in having Villar come off the bench don't you think the Marlins and other teams will have the same issue. Same thing for Broxton really, although he probably carries a little more value.

 

They're cheap and controllable, yes. But there's lots of other guys that fall into that category. Rule 5 picks, minor league FA, etc. Could very well be wrong, I just don't think there will much of a market for them. Broxton would have brought back a bigger return after the 2016 season, when there was a lot of reason to be excited about his ceiling. Now teams know his ceiling, and it's pretty high. Unfortunately he only reaches it a few weeks a year.

[NievesNoNO]

I don't think Villar would return much at this point. If he was, there wouldn't be a discussion about trading him. He certainly won't bring back anything of immediate significance or enhance any trade package with a good return.

 

In theory, I suppose if the Marlins were unloading salary to go through their every other year tear down then maybe a straight up deal for Chen could work. A sell low by both teams, with both teams getting something that has potential value to them. Villar gets to be the 2b replacement when Gordon is traded. Chen, while he has a hefty salary has proven to be pretty decent when he's healthy.

[brewcrewdue80]

I can't fathom the Marlins taki g Broxton/Villar for Yelich alone unless you included the likes of Brinson and say Peralta or Ortiz.

 

The guy is entering his prime on the cheap, a 4War player whose home field is a big disadvantage. Coming to Miller Park, Hed certainly jump to a 900 OPS player which if so, makes him a 5+ War MVP kind of player.

 

Issue is, I cant get behind a Santana, Yelich, Braun OF. Braun/Santana would leave Yelich too much ground to cover for what he'd bring in CF.

 

So now to take Yelich, you have to move Braun or Santana in a deal and Braun is borderline impossible. So Santana has to go to have a Yelich, Phillips, Braun OF.

[Jenkins5]

I like this. If Villar/Broxton gets you Yelich/Gordon then maybe Oliver Drake gets you Kershaw.

I think the thought process is the idea of salary sheds for cheap inexpensive pieces. While highly unlikely, I could see something like this if a team were willing to take on Chen as well.

 

In no way I meant straight up, thought be crazy of them but you can package around Villar & Broxton to reduce prospect load. Add Ortiz & another prospect. You may get it.

 

I personally don’t want Gordon, 2 straight seasons of sub 100 wRC+ Hes a speed slap hitter who doesn’t walk. Not an analytic guy.

[trwi7]

I like this. If Villar/Broxton gets you Yelich/Gordon then maybe Oliver Drake gets you Kershaw.

I think the thought process is the idea of salary sheds for cheap inexpensive pieces. While highly unlikely, I could see something like this if a team were willing to take on Chen as well.

 

Why would the Marlins completely de-value one of their best assets by forcing a team to take Chen? If they want to shed salary, they trade Yelich for prospects, who you pay almost nothing to in the minors and the minimum in the majors and if they're not ready sign some crap player for less than a million to fill the slot until the prospect is ready to take over.

 

Stanton? Sure I could see them taking on money to get a better return while still shedding significant salary. Yelich? There's no point in doing that since he makes so little.

[monty57]

Either Villar is our every day 2B because we believe he can regain some of that 2016 swagger, or I hope he is gone. I just don't think he holds a lot of value as a super sub, or a guy off the bench. His defense is horrible, so why would we want him entering games in late innings? He is a bad base runner, so how could we consider him a super pinch runner? I see zero value in him if he isn't a starter, with the chance to play every day and improve. I was never quite on board with him to begin with, he had a lot of things go his way in 2016, but the base running was so horrid, I just couldn't see him as anything other than a one year wonder.

 

Good points made. I think "gone" means either DFA'd or traded for minor league roster filler. That makes the question whether we should hold Perez and dump Villar for nothing, or hold Villar in hopes he regains some value while trading Perez for something.

 

I personally don't see a ton of PAs for this spot on the roster, and we have minor leaguers like Dubon who could be called up if Villar fails. Therefore, I'm leaning in the direction of trading Perez for something of value with the contingency that we're willing to dump Villar and bring up a prospect if he doesn't show life at the start of the season.

 

Of course, this also assumes that we will bring in a 2B from outside the organization. If we are not going to do that, I would probably rather see a platoon of Perez/Sogard than Villar/Sogard, although neither looks overly appealing.