Free Agent SP

[mlloyd10]

Offer Darvish and Arrieta both 3/60

[JohnBriggs12]

My oh my why does everyone have to be so negative? I understand some posts are a week old or so, but why must any connection we have be nothing? Why are our offers low ball offers? Why? Any reasoning behind that?

 

Maybe Stearns actually wants to improve our rotation and with a huge amount of payroll will put in an aggressive offer. Especially if someone can be had for less years than they wanted(3 years for example).

 

Lowball offers aren't necessarily a negative thing. For various reasons sometimes just making sure your rivals have to make competitive offers, it's important to at least maintain perception of being involved.

 

And an aggressive offer isn't necessarily a positive thing, especially if it's a 4 or 5 year offer to someone like Arrieta who is a virtual guarantee to be an albatross contract at the end.

 

Really, you think David Stearns has the wherewithal to make Theo Epstein overpay for a FA? It's the exact opposite. As soon as a story came out about the Brewers interest in Lorenzo Cain, all of a sudden the Cubs were interested. Stearns probably knows that if he makes a serious (by Brewer standards) effort for Cobb or Arrieta, the Cubs will swoop in and grab them and likely be praised for it being an economical move. The Cubs can overpay for talent. The Brewers can't. That's an unequal playing field. Epstein knows it. Stearns knows it.

[NOMAAM]

My prediction is that noon on January 28th at OnDeck, they will announce their FA SP signing.

 

So that's when Jaime Garcia will sign

[KeithStone53151]

Really, you think David Stearns has the wherewithal to make Theo Epstein overpay for a FA? It's the exact opposite. As soon as a story came out about the Brewers interest in Lorenzo Cain, all of a sudden the Cubs were interested. Stearns probably knows that if he makes a serious (by Brewer standards) effort for Cobb or Arrieta, the Cubs will swoop in and grab them and likely be praised for it being an economical move. The Cubs can overpay for talent. The Brewers can't. That's an unequal playing field. Epstein knows it. Stearns knows it.

 

Absolutely I do. I not only think he does, I know he does. He just recently got Epstein to overpay for Quintana, trading pretty much the last of their farm system. Epstein is basically Dombrowski 2.0. He has a very talented 25 man roster, but it also has it's warts and he has no ammo left to plug holes as he overpaid in prospects to plug holes with short term fixes. He also has significant payroll issues coming up with guys like Bryant/Baez/Schwarber/Russell all hitting arbitration, so I doubt we see a spending spree anytime soon. The more dumb moves Stearns can help Epstein make, the more their window shrinks.

[bill hAll Star]

Really, you think David Stearns has the wherewithal to make Theo Epstein overpay for a FA? It's the exact opposite. As soon as a story came out about the Brewers interest in Lorenzo Cain, all of a sudden the Cubs were interested. Stearns probably knows that if he makes a serious (by Brewer standards) effort for Cobb or Arrieta, the Cubs will swoop in and grab them and likely be praised for it being an economical move. The Cubs can overpay for talent. The Brewers can't. That's an unequal playing field. Epstein knows it. Stearns knows it.

 

Absolutely I do. I not only think he does, I know he does. He just recently got Epstein to overpay for Quintana, trading pretty much the last of their farm system. Epstein is basically Dombrowski 2.0. He has a very talented 25 man roster, but it also has it's warts and he has no ammo left to plug holes as he overpaid in prospects to plug holes with short term fixes. He also has significant payroll issues coming up with guys like Bryant/Baez/Schwarber/Russell all hitting arbitration, so I doubt we see a spending spree anytime soon. The more dumb moves Stearns can help Epstein make, the more their window shrinks.

 

Sure, Epstein is shrinking the window a little bit, but unless this is coming across wrong on a message board, you have a very strange negative tone towards a guy that has built 2 franchises that have won 3 World Series titles and have plenty of time to win at least 1 more with the Cubs.

 

I don't think many moves that Epstein has made are that dumb given the constraints of baseball and their payroll. This post nearly got me to post the "wut" or question mark gif.

 

They're all in to win a World Series in the next four seasons and have plenty of time to replenish the farm system, and if it isn't replenished, they were probably going to be rebuilding anyways...or they can try to buy their way out of it one more time.

 

I find it kind of strange that having a 10 year window (even for a large market) is considered stupid GM moves. Even if Eloy and Gleyber are absolute studs, I don't know if they'll reach the value of what the Cubs traded for. They correctly dumped Soler, even if Davis didn't win them the WS. Chapman got them a World Series, which I'm not sure they'd have gotten without trading Gleyber.

 

Maybe they'll overpay for Alex Cobb, but in 2021 or 2022 when the Cubs have a good sense of whether they'll hit the reset button or know that they have a way to keep the thing going I don't know if they will say, "ugh, man...we have 1 year, $16 million left on this Alex Cobb contract. We're screwed."

[KeithStone53151]

Really, you think David Stearns has the wherewithal to make Theo Epstein overpay for a FA? It's the exact opposite. As soon as a story came out about the Brewers interest in Lorenzo Cain, all of a sudden the Cubs were interested. Stearns probably knows that if he makes a serious (by Brewer standards) effort for Cobb or Arrieta, the Cubs will swoop in and grab them and likely be praised for it being an economical move. The Cubs can overpay for talent. The Brewers can't. That's an unequal playing field. Epstein knows it. Stearns knows it.

 

Absolutely I do. I not only think he does, I know he does. He just recently got Epstein to overpay for Quintana, trading pretty much the last of their farm system. Epstein is basically Dombrowski 2.0. He has a very talented 25 man roster, but it also has it's warts and he has no ammo left to plug holes as he overpaid in prospects to plug holes with short term fixes. He also has significant payroll issues coming up with guys like Bryant/Baez/Schwarber/Russell all hitting arbitration, so I doubt we see a spending spree anytime soon. The more dumb moves Stearns can help Epstein make, the more their window shrinks.

 

Sure, Epstein is shrinking the window a little bit, but unless this is coming across wrong on a message board, you have a very strange negative tone towards a guy that has built 2 franchises that have won 3 World Series titles and have plenty of time to win at least 1 more with the Cubs.

 

I don't think many moves that Epstein has made are that dumb given the constraints of baseball and their payroll.

 

I don't think highly of Epstein's approach. Boston was an absolute dumpster fire when he left, and they would have been bad for an extended period if the Dodgers didn't completely bail them out the following year for a wildly unknown reason. That's exactly where the Cubs are headed, and he'll probably leave when he sees the mess he's creating for himself. And he's also manned the ship for 2 of the biggest markets in baseball. I also contend the Cubs don't even win their one world series without pretty much everything breaking right with his team, other teams, a timely rain delay, and significant umpire assistance. They also probably won't win another one as he's pretty much out of ammo to improve the 25 man.

 

If Stearns had the resources of Epstein and wanted to empty this great farm system he built, he could probably build a team capable of contending for the World Series in 2018 and for the next handful of years. But he doesn't have those advantages and isn't stupid enough to empty the farm for a small window and then have to deal with a massive rebuild.

[bill hAll Star]

I don't think highly of Epstein's approach. Boston was an absolute dumpster fire when he left, and they would have been bad for an extended period if the Dodgers didn't completely bail them out the following year for a wildly unknown reason. That's exactly where the Cubs are headed, and he'll probably leave when he sees the mess he's creating for himself. And he's also manned the ship for 2 of the biggest markets in baseball. I also contend the Cubs don't even win their one world series without pretty much everything breaking right with his team, other teams, and significant umpire assistance. They also probably won't win another one as he's pretty much out of ammo to improve the 25 man.

 

If Stearns had the resources of Epstein and wanted to empty this great farm system he built, he could probably build a team capable of contending for the World Series in 2018 and for the next handful of years. But he doesn't have those advantages and isn't stupid enough to empty the farm for a small window and then have to deal with a massive rebuild.

 

Yeah, this is kind of crazy.

 

There's an inflection point on value. You can hoard 1000 prospects and manage your system correctly, but at a certain point, all that allows you to do is to overpay some free agents (that tend to still earn their value) or make a prospect trade.

 

It was definitely smart of Epstein to take over the franchises he did at the point that he did, but there are 20 other GMs that have taken over similar franchises and have not done the things he's done in the past decade.

 

Honest question: what's a good GM? Freidman, viewed as a genius in Tampa, while he's under some cost-cutting constraints (likely by the franchise) and is a bit more budget savvy, still spends a ton of money and trades away prospects now that he's in a big market.

 

It's not all about pretending that you're running a $50 million payroll and patting yourself on the back for building a Wild Card team team for that budget even though you're offered by your owner to have a $200 million payroll.

 

Friedman correctly held on to Bellinger in trade talks, but he's also made plenty of trades and spent plenty of money to try to win within his window. The Cubs also held on to several prospects that will be starting for them for years to come.

 

The Astros just had a brilliant build and they'll go down the same road that Epstein's teams have. It's what you do.

 

Sure, several other savvy GMs could do what Epstein has, but he's not an idiot and I think you are horrendously discounting what he can do.

 

But he doesn't have those advantages and isn't stupid enough to empty the farm for a small window and then have to deal with a massive rebuild.

 

I want to emphasize this. By the time that Bryant, Rizzo, maybe Harper if they so choose, etc. are all free agents or exiting their prime, their window will likely have been 7 or 8 years, unless this really sinks fast. They still have time to replenish things by 2022.

 

They could still choose to keep Bryant, who won't be that old after arbitration for him ends and have the end of Contreras' arbitration plus a ton of money to spend and probably a few new prospects coming up.

[tmwiese55]

Epstein got very lucky with CHC to have Arietta and Hendricks go from castoffs to Cy Young level. Sure, smart pickups in the low risk sense. But still extremely lucky to have them become Cy Young level. Any realistic expectation for a bounce back for those guys would be just to become solid starters, Cy Young level is crazy good luck. And yet they pushed out the pitching coach for some reason.

 

I'm glad MKE is involved with these starters, have to be in the conversation just in case their price or situation makes it viable for MKE. However, I'd be shocked if we end up with one. If close to signing here because it's the best deal on the table, their agent is going to call the big markets and tell them what they need to beat it or they're signing tomorrow and one will.

[bill hAll Star]

Epstein got very lucky with CHC to have Arietta and Hendricks go from castoffs to Cy Young level. Sure, smart pickups in the low risk sense. But still extremely lucky to have them become Cy Young level. Any realistic expectation for a bounce back for those guys would be just to become solid starters, Cy Young level is crazy good luck. And yet they pushed out the pitching coach for some reason.

 

The Patriots were lucky that a 7th round pick turned into arguably the best player in NFL history.

 

The Packers were lucky that 2 HOF QBs either came out of nowhere or fell to them.

 

The Astros were lucky that a 5'4" 2B turned into an MVP and that their buy low risk on Charlie Morton turned into one of the better playoff pitching performances in recent memory.

 

The Royals were lucky that the A's choked in the Wild Card game and that they basically got to and later won a World Series with relievers and baserunners.

 

At a certain point, you begin to wonder if skill is involved.

 

Make enough smart risks, and 1 or 2 will pay off hall of fame level dividends.

[tmwiese55]

Epstein got very lucky with CHC to have Arietta and Hendricks go from castoffs to Cy Young level. Sure, smart pickups in the low risk sense. But still extremely lucky to have them become Cy Young level. Any realistic expectation for a bounce back for those guys would be just to become solid starters, Cy Young level is crazy good luck. And yet they pushed out the pitching coach for some reason.

 

The Patriots were lucky that a 7th round pick turned into arguably the best player in NFL history.

 

The Packers were lucky that 2 HOF QBs either came out of nowhere or fell to them.

 

The Astros were lucky that a 5'4" 2B turned into an MVP and that their buy low risk on Charlie Morton turned into one of the better playoff pitching performances in recent memory.

 

The Royals were lucky that the A's choked in the Wild Card game and that they basically got to and later won a World Series with relievers and baserunners.

 

At a certain point, you begin to wonder if skill is involved.

 

Make enough smart risks, and 1 or 2 will pay off hall of fame level dividends.

 

OK great. Point was Cy Young level for castoffs is very very rare and they had two at the same time, and that the Cubs would be in a much different spot if that didn't happen. We've picked up how many 100 castoff Ps the last 25 years and how many have become Ace level? 0.

 

Essentially only one of their superstar mega prospects has panned out in Bryant and they've developed no young pitching. So say only one of those guys became awesome instead of two, they wouldn't have a title right now. So all the stuff that was in the plan really hasn't worked and got bailed out by two extremely lucky events. At this point they'd probably be chasing starters like crazy right now being forced to overpay and things would look very different. But yea of course, great low risk moves to grab those guys and paired them with the perfect pitching coach at the right time. Stars align sometimes and it did for them. Made a brutal signing in Hayward to boot. Lester signing is what is, you knew it would be good for a few years and bad at the end, just as likely will happen. Astros gameplan pretty worked exactly as it was laid out years ago.

 

ETA: I just had time to re look at Hendrick's career. Seems my memory was way off for him, I had it in my head that he'd been up elsewhere and flamed out before they got him just like Arrieta. That wasn't the case. Just a later round pick that worked out. So that makes some of what I wrote a bit off but don't want to go back and re-do it all.

[Warning Track Power]

Honest question: what's a good GM? Freidman, viewed as a genius in Tampa, while he's under some cost-cutting constraints (likely by the franchise) and is a bit more budget savvy, still spends a ton of money and trades away prospects now that he's in a big market.

This isn't exactly true about Friedman. Living in Los Angeles, you would think Friedman was the devil on some levels the past few years for hoarding Joc Pederson, Corey Seager, Clay Bellinger, Alex Verdugo, Walker Buehler, Mithcell White, Yadier Alvarez. Now some of them have graduated to MLB and become studs (Seager and Bellinger), some have been rather meh (Pederson) and some haven't graduated yet (Verdugo, Buehler, White, Alvarez). However, Friedman hasn't dealt any of them to create the super bullpen like the Yankees (Zach Britton was targeted but never acquired) to supplement Jansen. Nor did he deal any of them for Giancarlo Stanton who desperately wanted to play here.

 

A lot of consternation for a fan base of a team that has limitless resources to buy MLB players but is also sticking to a draft and develop philosophy. We should be grateful that Epstein doesn't run the Cubs like Friedman runs the Dodgers.

[bill hAll Star]

Honest question: what's a good GM? Freidman, viewed as a genius in Tampa, while he's under some cost-cutting constraints (likely by the franchise) and is a bit more budget savvy, still spends a ton of money and trades away prospects now that he's in a big market.

This isn't exactly true about Friedman. Living in Los Angeles, you would think Friedman was the devil on some levels the past few years for hoarding Joc Pederson, Corey Seager, Clay Bellinger, Alex Verdugo, Walker Buehler, Mithcell White, Yadier Alvarez. Now some of them have graduated to MLB and become studs (Seager and Bellinger), some have been rather meh (Pederson) and some haven't graduated yet (Verdugo, Buehler, White, Alvarez). However, Friedman hasn't dealt any of them to create the super bullpen like the Yankees (Zach Britton was targeted but never acquired) to supplement Jansen. Nor did he deal any of them for Giancarlo Stanton who desperately wanted to play here.

 

A lot of consternation for a fan base of a team that has limitless resources to buy MLB players but is also sticking to a draft and develop philosophy. We should be grateful that Epstein doesn't run the Cubs like Friedman runs the Dodgers.

 

I agree that if asked, I'd maybe take Friedman, but the point is that these guys will still play big market ball if they can.

 

Friedman basically lit $50 million on fire with Scott Kazmir. While it was to repair some issues with financial constraints some of his own doing and some he inherited, he took on $40 million of Matt Kemp.

 

While Kenley is really good, they're still going to be paying a reliever $60 million dollars over 3 years starting in 2019. He held on to Urias, which still may pay off, but maybe it robbed them of a World Series a few years back or this year, who knows.

 

He's doing all of this under a likely directive to shed payroll to get under the tax threshold. And he's still throwing prospects out and spending a fair amount of money. That's what big market GMs do, even if shrewd.

[KeithStone53151]

I agree that if asked, I'd maybe take Friedman, but the point is that these guys will still play big market ball if they can.

 

Friedman basically lit $50 million on fire with Scott Kazmir. While it was to repair some issues with financial constraints some of his own doing and some he inherited, he took on $40 million of Matt Kemp.

 

While Kenley is really good, they're still going to be paying a reliever $60 million dollars over 3 years starting in 2019. He held on to Urias, which still may pay off, but maybe it robbed them of a World Series a few years back or this year, who knows.

 

He's doing all of this under a likely directive to shed payroll to get under the tax threshold. And he's still throwing prospects out and spending a fair amount of money. That's what big market GMs do, even if shrewd.

 

Friedman is good. Cardinals GM is good, though he's shifted from his model of success earlier this decade. The concept is to find a way to be consistently successful and avoid a rebuild. The Cardinals won 2 world series and have been consistently a playoff team for what seems like forever. The Rays find a way to stay in the mix most years with a much smaller payroll than ours.

 

But looking specifically at the Dodgers, that franchise is set up to be in World Series contention now and to be good for the forseeable future. There is no window forming for that franchise, because their GM understands the value of their prospects and developing from within. Sure, they can supplement their developed talent with top notch free agents...but they've done so in a manner that maintains the ability to compete and be successful in the future. The Cubs could have(and should have) been able to do just that, but Epstein's decisions instead led to an all-in window.

 

And looking at the Cubs team, I don't know that they are one of the top 3 teams in the NL. The Dodgers are surely better on paper. The Nationals and Diamondbacks are at minimum comparable to the Cubs, and both teams are much better positioned for the future and to add at the deadline than the Cubs. I personally think the Cubs window of being a WS contender is closed. They have some good years left of being the favorite to win the division, but I doubt they even make another WS in the next 3 years let alone win one...and by that time they'll likely have to go to full on rebuild mode.

[brwrsfan]

I'd have to say that any team that is a favorite to win the division, and thus make the playoffs, still has a "World Series Window".

 

They may not be the favorites again, but as we've seen in just about every sport, all you have to do is get in the playoffs, and anything can and will happen from there.

 

The Cubs are almost certainly a heavy favorite to at least make the playoffs for the next few seasons.

[KeithStone53151]

I'd have to say that any team that is a favorite to win the division, and thus make the playoffs, still has a "World Series Window".

 

They may not be the favorites again, but as we've seen in just about every sport, all you have to do is get in the playoffs, and anything can and will happen from there.

 

The Cubs are almost certainly a heavy favorite to at least make the playoffs for the next few seasons.

 

I'll give them this year. Let's see how Hendricks and Lester and Rizzo and Heyward and Zobrist and Quintana and other key players on their team age. Out of those 4 teams I listed, the Cubs pitching is the worst and it isn't even close. The Cubs are also at serious risk of being passed by the Brewers or Cardinals by 2019 or the Reds by 2020. Swings happen in baseball much quicker than most people realize. Young teams get projected to be OK with big upside, often the upside happens and they win 90-100 games. See Cubs/Yankees/Twins/Brewers. Often teams with established players in their late 20s and early 30s and no depth whatsoever will see injuries and guys fall off a cliff lead to a very quick decline. See Brewers, Giants, Tigers, Phillies, Pirates...and very soon Cubs.

[brewcrewdue80]

Agreed that a Division title likely Cubs are still within their WS window. Lester, Quintana, Hendriks, and Chatwood(remember) can obviously pitch a solid 4 of 5 rotation. Chatwood, likely becomes that Ace with Quintana to be the new Arrieta/Hendriks "Luck"

 

 

On topic with Arrieta rumors. Posted somewhere my disproval due to his 2nd best pitch his 2 elite years becoming an afterthought pitch or he's a 2 pitch pony. Nevermind the velocity declines.

 

The example of upside is Jimmy Nelson. Taking a 4.5+ and going to 3.5 and less ERA/Fip in 1 season. Why?

 

He threw with higher velocity, Less Fastballs which was a poorly rated pitch for him the prior year and still below average, but a much improved Curve Ball to add to his previous best pitch the Slider. The Curveball went from near average to above average and he threw that more. Went from a 71% Fastball-15.5% Slider and 12.4% Curve to 61.3% Fastball 16.1 Slider and now 20.1 % Curveball. a 3 pitch mix, that made his fastball better by that curve ball being better.

 

This is the opposite with Arrieta who went from under 50% Fast ball and 28.7% avg elite Cutter to 64.3% Fast ball avg and down to a non-elite Cutter at only 16% thrown. The Fastball was elite, but a loss in velocity and the worsened #2 (now 4th pitch) made his FB value to just above average.

 

Steamer lists him at 4.2ERA with a 4.11 Fip projection in 18. Nice 177IP 11-10 #4 SP. That's essentially Tyler Chatwood's Steamer only his it valued to 137IP at 9-7.

 

You want Arrieta, offer him 3/42million, that is what he's worth moving forward.

[bill hAll Star]

I'd have to say that any team that is a favorite to win the division, and thus make the playoffs, still has a "World Series Window".

 

They may not be the favorites again, but as we've seen in just about every sport, all you have to do is get in the playoffs, and anything can and will happen from there.

 

The Cubs are almost certainly a heavy favorite to at least make the playoffs for the next few seasons.

 

I'll give them this year. Let's see how Hendricks and Lester and Rizzo and Heyward and Zobrist and Quintana and other key players on their team age. Out of those 4 teams I listed, the Cubs pitching is the worst and it isn't even close. The Cubs are also at serious risk of being passed by the Brewers or Cardinals by 2019 or the Reds by 2020. Swings happen in baseball much quicker than most people realize. Young teams get projected to be OK with big upside, often the upside happens and they win 90-100 games. See Cubs/Yankees/Twins/Brewers. Often teams with established players in their late 20s and early 30s and no depth whatsoever will see injuries and guys fall off a cliff lead to a very quick decline. See Brewers, Giants, Tigers, Phillies, Pirates...and very soon Cubs.

 

The Cubs may not have great depth, but the key members of their team are in their primes. Even Heyward is only 27. Lester and some of the relievers are really the only guys that aren't.

 

I agree that they've exposed themselves to some depth issues, but these teams can stem the tide for a few years in which injury occur.

 

The end of the Tigers' run (2014) had key players:

Miggy (31), Kinsler (32), Victor Martinez (35), Scherzer (free agent to-be), Torii Hunter (38), Verlander (31), Sanchez (30), Rajai Davis (33), Porcello (not a ton of control remaining, traded away), Nathan (39). A lot of their depth was of the utility man variety.

 

The Cubs' 2018 roster has:

Zobrist (36), Lester (33), and half of their bullpen is 29-32. That's it.

 

All of their key position players/defenders are in their 20s.

 

I disagree that their pitching is much worse than the Brewers and Cards'. They have arguably the best defense to prop up their pitching. They probably are going to just shuttle relievers around if they have pitching depth issues to make it through the year.

[KeithStone53151]

I'd have to say that any team that is a favorite to win the division, and thus make the playoffs, still has a "World Series Window".

 

They may not be the favorites again, but as we've seen in just about every sport, all you have to do is get in the playoffs, and anything can and will happen from there.

 

The Cubs are almost certainly a heavy favorite to at least make the playoffs for the next few seasons.

 

I'll give them this year. Let's see how Hendricks and Lester and Rizzo and Heyward and Zobrist and Quintana and other key players on their team age. Out of those 4 teams I listed, the Cubs pitching is the worst and it isn't even close. The Cubs are also at serious risk of being passed by the Brewers or Cardinals by 2019 or the Reds by 2020. Swings happen in baseball much quicker than most people realize. Young teams get projected to be OK with big upside, often the upside happens and they win 90-100 games. See Cubs/Yankees/Twins/Brewers. Often teams with established players in their late 20s and early 30s and no depth whatsoever will see injuries and guys fall off a cliff lead to a very quick decline. See Brewers, Giants, Tigers, Phillies, Pirates...and very soon Cubs.

 

The Cubs may not have great depth, but the key members of their team are in their primes. Even Heyward is only 27. Lester and some of the relievers are really the only guys that aren't.

 

I agree that they've exposed themselves to some depth issues, but these teams can stem the tide for a few years in which injury occur.

 

The end of the Tigers' run (2014) had key players:

Miggy (31), Kinsler (32), Victor Martinez (35), Scherzer (free agent to-be), Torii Hunter (38), Verlander (31), Sanchez (30), Rajai Davis (33), Porcello (not a ton of control remaining, traded away), Nathan (39). A lot of their depth was of the utility man variety.

 

The Cubs' 2018 roster has:

Zobrist (36), Lester (33), and half of their bullpen is 29-32. That's it.

 

All of their key position players/defenders are in their 20s.

 

I disagree that their pitching is much worse than the Brewers and Cards'. They have arguably the best defense to prop up their pitching. They probably are going to just shuttle relievers around if they have pitching depth issues to make it through the year.

 

The 4 I was referring to were Dodgers, Nationals, DBacks. Their biggest 3 threats on paper at this point. Their pitching on paper is better than ours and probably a push with the Cardinals at this point, however both the Brewers and Cardinals have far more upside.

[bill hAll Star]

The 4 I was referring to were Dodgers, Nationals, DBacks. Their biggest 3 threats on paper at this point. Their pitching on paper is better than ours and probably a push with the Cardinals at this point, however both the Brewers and Cardinals have far more upside.

 

The thing is, while the DBacks could win a Wild Card game, they are likely eliminated from this discussion because that very competitive division could drown them out of a Wild Card slot or they could just lose the 1 game playoff.

 

The Nats are good, but Murphy and Harper are free agents next year. If we're talking about multiple years here, the Cubs have a better outlook. And Scherzer may be hitting a regression age soon. I also think that the Nats' depth will soon be an issue if they do keep this thing chugging past 2018. They've got Robles, but I'm not sure if they have a deep farm system to keep a competitive season afloat if they start dropping some of their superstars.

 

Agree that on paper the NL is the Dodgers/Cubs/Nats with NL West Team A vs. NL West Team B/Cards/maybe Brewers for the WC game. Maybe the Phillies or Braves enter the discussion, but I doubt it.

 

The Dodgers may be favored, but it's another chance in the playoffs for the Cubs. They'll definitely have a shot.

[DR28]

Latest news...

 

FanRag’s Jon Heyman reports in his latest notes column that one GM tells him Cobb is still seeking a contract of four to five years in length at an annual rate of $15MM or more. (Presumably, Cobb’s camp would want a higher annual value on the shorter pact.) Lynn, meanwhile, is believed to be seeking a “at least four years” at $15MM+ annually. The Brewers, according to Heyman, are monitoring the free-agent market with an opportunistic eye and believe both Cobb and Lynn to be more plausible targets for them than the more expensive Arrieta.