Free Agent SP

[KeithStone53151]

A "bargain deal"? The asking prices I've seen are far beyond reasonable and approach comical. If any of these guys "settle" for 75% of what they are asking that should be considered a good deal for the player. I know you are quoting trade rumors, I just find the word choice amusing.

Yeah, with the current state of MLB salaries, "bargain" can only be used in a relative sense.

 

And your point on these FAs' contract demands are probably precisely why they're locked into a game of chicken.

 

I know his resume has its warts, but Chacin is looking like a steal at this point.

 

Agreed, I'm very happy with that chacin deal right now. And it will be very interesting to see how this game of chicken ends. Gm's are generally getting smarter and can look at a history of a large percentage of these ridiculous free agent contracts turning out poorly for the team. Guys get old, and honestly I think many start coasting once they sign the big contract.

[bill hAll Star]

I think the big key this year is all of the teams trying to get under the luxury tax threshold. Taking out a lot of key bidders.

 

I think GMs have always known these guys are overpaid but for once they have a bit of a motive not to spend. I think most know that when the pitcher heavily regresses in year 3 of the contract that they may be rebuilding anyways.

[MVP2110]

Yep, it wouldn't shock me in the slightest to see us make a move for one of these starters still out there if their demands lower. Heck same for the top relievers out there like Davis, Holland, or Reed.

[LouisEly]

I just can't believe some of these higher name starters haven't signed with anyone yet.

I remember from the winter meetings, can't remember if it was an owner or a GM, someone said, "five year contracts for pitchers don't end well". I think other teams are doing the analysis - looking at prior longer-term deals for pitchers - on the contracts (performance, age regression, subtracting DL time, etc.) and finding out what the real cost of those longer term deals are.

 

I said it before and I'll say it again, if you look at the peripherals and somewhat advanced stats Cobb's comp is a 30-year-old Matt Garza. Looking back, Garza wasn't worth 4/$52M, so Cobb can't expect to get even that.

[KeithStone53151]

I just can't believe some of these higher name starters haven't signed with anyone yet.

I remember from the winter meetings, can't remember if it was an owner or a GM, someone said, "five year contracts for pitchers don't end well". I think other teams are doing the analysis - looking at prior longer-term deals for pitchers - on the contracts (performance, age regression, subtracting DL time, etc.) and finding out what the real cost of those longer term deals are.

 

I said it before and I'll say it again, if you look at the peripherals and somewhat advanced stats Cobb's comp is a 30-year-old Matt Garza. Looking back, Garza wasn't worth 4/$52M, so Cobb can't expect to get even that.

 

What someone like Cobb is counting on is one dumb GM(example: Dombrowski) to make a "bold" move and meet their asking price. For Cobb specifically, I've heard $20 million per from one spot. Then another reporter said that asking price was false and he's seeking Mike Leake money 5/80. It doesn't take a genius to compare performance to value on similar past contracts. Even Leake, in the first 2 years of his deal(which are supposed to be the "good years"), post a 4.7 and 3.9 ERA his first 2 seasons. That's not TERRIBLE considering he took the ball 30 times each of those 2 years, but is it worth $32 million combined? Absolutely not. At age 30 he might have another season or two left performing at this level before he drops off, but he's not worth the contract.

 

Looking at the Leake contract makes the Chacin contract look that much better. A very reasonable expectation for Chacin would be to take the ball 30 times and post high 3s or low 4s ERA, that would be better than what Leake did the last 2 years at half the cost.

[JosephC]

I just can't believe some of these higher name starters haven't signed with anyone yet.

MLBTR had a piece today with an interesting note about this.

 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2017/12/jake-arrieta-alex-cobb-free-agent.html

 

Here on December 28th, the top four starting pitchers remain unsigned: Darvish (Wasserman), Arrieta (Boras), Cobb (Beverly Hills Sports Council), and Lance Lynn (Excel Sports Management). As the process drags into January, it will be interesting to see if any of the four have to settle for a bargain deal. The current free agency game of chicken between teams and agents has no recent precedent.

 

I think the "bargain deal" aspect for the top starting pitchers is pretty ridiculous.

 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2017/11/2017-18-top-50-mlb-free-agents-with-predictions.html

 

Let's look at deals that have happened so far.

 

Carlos Santana / prediction = 3/45 / actual contract = 3/60

Zach Cozart / prediction = 3/42 / actual contract = 3/38

Tyler Chatwood / prediction = 3/20 / actual contract = 3/38

Mike Minor / prediction = 4/28 / actual contract = 3/28

Jake McGee / prediction = 3/18 / actual contract = 3/27

Bryan Shaw / prediction = 3/21 / actual contract = 3/27

Brandon Morrow / prediction = 3/24 / actual contract = 2/21

Tommy Hunter / prediction = 2/12 / actual contract = 2/18

Juan Nicasio / prediction = 3/21 / actual contract = 2/17

Pat Neshek / prediction = 2/12 / actual contract = 2/16.25

Yonder Alonso / prediction = 2/22 / actual contract = 2/16

Mike Mikolas / prediction = 2/10 / actual contract = 2/15.5

Jhoulys Chacin / prediction = 2/14 / actual contract = 2/15.5

Wellington Castillo / prediction = 2/14 / actual contract = 2/15.5

Anthony Swarzak / prediction = 2/14 / actual contract = 2/14

Steve Cishek / prediction = 2/14 / actual contract = 2/13

C.C. Sabathia / prediction = 2/24 / actual contract = 1/10

Michael Pineda / prediction = 2/6 / actual contract = 2/10

Brandon Kintzler / prediction = 2/14 / actual contract = 2/10

 

So of the 19 contracts signed so far off the list of their top 50 free agents, 12 of the 19 received the same or more money than was predicted. Of the remaining 7, 2 of those had a higher average annual value than the prediction but signed for 1 year less. It certainly is open for debate in regards to those five other contracts of how far short they were of the prediction. I'd argue that the Cozart and Cishek deals were pretty much right on the money and of the 19 deals so far, only the Alonso, Sabathia and Kintzler deals were on the low side (and I don't think the size of the Sabathia deal surprised anybody).

 

Grand totals from above. Predicted = 47 years, 375 million dollars, average annual value = 7.98 million. Actual = 43 years, 409.75 million, average annual value = 9.53 million.

 

No question that at this point, the free agent market has not produced many bargains. Even though the numbers look like the free agents have been favored and there have been some overpays...I'd argue that MLBTradeRumor missed badly on a prediction (pretty much everyone on this board initially commented that the Chatwood prediction seemed whacked) and the Santana contract skewed the results just a bit. My generally impression is that so far the free agent market has generally been pretty balanced and has gone as expected so far. If anything, I'd say relievers tended to be paid about 15% more than what was expected.

 

So now back to possible bargain deals for the top starters.

 

Yu Darvish / prediction = 6/160 / contract demand = ??

Jake Arrieta / prediction = 4/100 / contract demand = anywhere from 6/160 to 8/200

Lance Lynn / prediction = 4/56 then upgraded to 4/60 / contract demand = 5/95

Alex Cobb / prediction = 4/48 / contract demand = anywhere from 5/80 to 5/100

 

The reason none of these players have signed yet is simple...contract demands too high and fairly unrealistic IMO. Once they come down to more realistic figures they will have no problem finding a lucrative, long-term deal. No idea how the media has come up with the idea that if a player isn't paid every penny of what he wants that he is somehow getting screwed? I'll say with great confidence that when all is said and done, Arrieta, Lynn and Cobb will all have contracts that pay them more than what MLBTradeRumors and most baseball writers/experts had predicted back in November. If Darvish missed the 160 million figure, it will only be because he didn't get a 6th year. Even so, I'd guess the average annual value of a shorter deal will exceed the 26.67 average annual value that was predicted. If people are looking for bargains, the top free agent pitchers is not the group to look at.

[NievesNoNO]

Many of the big names this season carry some additional levels of risk with declining performance or injury history. I think GMs are just getting sick of paying ridiculous money for less than elite/declining talent.

 

Also, I think some of the would be bigger bidders are holding out for next years Harper/Machado/potential Kershaw derby.

[KeithStone53151]

The reason none of these players have signed yet is simple...contract demands too high and fairly unrealistic IMO. Once they come down to more realistic figures they will have no problem finding a lucrative, long-term deal. No idea how the media has come up with the idea that if a player isn't paid every penny of what he wants that he is somehow getting screwed? I'll say with great confidence that when all is said and done, Arrieta, Lynn and Cobb will all have contracts that pay them more than what MLBTradeRumors and most baseball writers/experts had predicted back in November. If Darvish missed the 160 million figure, it will only be because he didn't get a 6th year. Even so, I'd guess the average annual value of a shorter deal will exceed the 26.67 average annual value that was predicted. If people are looking for bargains, the top free agent pitchers is not the group to look at.

 

Well said, I find this aggravating too. It's probably just part of their war against the greedy rich owners that are providing us with baseball and are at least partially responsible for the jobs these writers have...but how dare they!

[mlloyd10]

Would Cobb or Lynn cost the Brewers a draft pick?

[KeithStone53151]

Would Cobb or Lynn cost the Brewers a draft pick?

 

I believe both would.

[reillymcshane]

The reason none of these players have signed yet is simple...contract demands too high and fairly unrealistic IMO. Once they come down to more realistic figures they will have no problem finding a lucrative, long-term deal. No idea how the media has come up with the idea that if a player isn't paid every penny of what he wants that he is somehow getting screwed? I'll say with great confidence that when all is said and done, Arrieta, Lynn and Cobb will all have contracts that pay them more than what MLBTradeRumors and most baseball writers/experts had predicted back in November. If Darvish missed the 160 million figure, it will only be because he didn't get a 6th year. Even so, I'd guess the average annual value of a shorter deal will exceed the 26.67 average annual value that was predicted. If people are looking for bargains, the top free agent pitchers is not the group to look at.

 

Well said, I find this aggravating too. It's probably just part of their war against the greedy rich owners that are providing us with baseball and are at least partially responsible for the jobs these writers have...but how dare they!

What 'media' people are saying that baseball players are getting screwed for asking for a lot of money (and not getting that much)?

[KeithStone53151]

The reason none of these players have signed yet is simple...contract demands too high and fairly unrealistic IMO. Once they come down to more realistic figures they will have no problem finding a lucrative, long-term deal. No idea how the media has come up with the idea that if a player isn't paid every penny of what he wants that he is somehow getting screwed? I'll say with great confidence that when all is said and done, Arrieta, Lynn and Cobb will all have contracts that pay them more than what MLBTradeRumors and most baseball writers/experts had predicted back in November. If Darvish missed the 160 million figure, it will only be because he didn't get a 6th year. Even so, I'd guess the average annual value of a shorter deal will exceed the 26.67 average annual value that was predicted. If people are looking for bargains, the top free agent pitchers is not the group to look at.

 

Well said, I find this aggravating too. It's probably just part of their war against the greedy rich owners that are providing us with baseball and are at least partially responsible for the jobs these writers have...but how dare they!

What 'media' people are saying that baseball players are getting screwed for asking for a lot of money (and not getting that much)?

 

- This is a bit indirect but I definitely get the vibe he has a pro-player anti-owner stance.

 

https://www.royalsreview.com/2017/12/26/16812704/are-baseball-owners-colluding-against-the-players - Article about owners being evil.

 

http://mlb.nbcsports.com/2017/12/18/marc-carig-mets-owners-are-cheap-unaccountable-unconcerned/ - Mets owners are cheap and terrible. One writer says it and another justifies it.

 

These are 3 examples I found in about 5 minutes. The common theme is pro-players getting paid and anti-rich greedy owners. It's not exactly as specific as you are stating, but the premise is there.

[reillymcshane]

 

Well said, I find this aggravating too. It's probably just part of their war against the greedy rich owners that are providing us with baseball and are at least partially responsible for the jobs these writers have...but how dare they!

What 'media' people are saying that baseball players are getting screwed for asking for a lot of money (and not getting that much)?

 

- This is a bit indirect but I definitely get the vibe he has a pro-player anti-owner stance.

 

https://www.royalsreview.com/2017/12/26/16812704/are-baseball-owners-colluding-against-the-players - Article about owners being evil.

 

http://mlb.nbcsports.com/2017/12/18/marc-carig-mets-owners-are-cheap-unaccountable-unconcerned/ - Mets owners are cheap and terrible. One writer says it and another justifies it.

 

These are 3 examples I found in about 5 minutes. The common theme is pro-players getting paid and anti-rich greedy owners. It's not exactly as specific as you are stating, but the premise is there.

I guess I go back to the original line - No idea how the media has come up with the idea that if a player isn't paid every penny of what he wants that he is somehow getting screwed? - I guess I don't see this as a pro owner vs pro player statement. It's saying that the media is writing articles stating that players are getting screwed when they don't get what they ask for.

 

The quoted articles aren't necessarily written by journalists saying that players are getting screwed because they aren't getting what they are asking. One is an anti-salary cap story, another is simply about the Mets owners being bad, and the other is comparing spending in the past with this year (and finding it is down thus far).

 

Perhaps I simply misinterpreted the original statement. Not a big deal. Didn't mean to take the thread off topic.

[danzig6767]

I just can't believe some of these higher name starters haven't signed with anyone yet.

 

They've all set unbelievably high prices that no team is willing to bite on. Cobb and Lynn are mid tier FA. Neither should sniff anything over $15 million per year. But they're out there thinking some team will come through with $18-20 million per year. Arrieta and Darvish too are unrealistic in their demands. Both want 5 or 6 year deals at around $25 million per. That isn't going to happen. They will both be lucky to crack $88 million over four years.

I'd much rather give Arrieta 100 million than Wade Davis 50 million.

[KeithStone53151]

I just can't believe some of these higher name starters haven't signed with anyone yet.

 

They've all set unbelievably high prices that no team is willing to bite on. Cobb and Lynn are mid tier FA. Neither should sniff anything over $15 million per year. But they're out there thinking some team will come through with $18-20 million per year. Arrieta and Darvish too are unrealistic in their demands. Both want 5 or 6 year deals at around $25 million per. That isn't going to happen. They will both be lucky to crack $88 million over four years.

I'd much rather give Arrieta 100 million than Wade Davis 50 million.

 

I would completely agree with that statement, but I hope we avoid both contracts.

[brewmann04]

I think DS will make a bold move with someone like Lynn at some point.

[rickh150]

In some ways it's like 2011. We need to cash in some of our chips for pitching. Our OF depth is beyond nuts and something has to give soon, along with the high number of players that will need to be protected a year from now. We need another plus arm or two in the rotation and a big upgrade at 2B to have playoff expectations, not just hopes.

In other ways, regardless of what we do from here on out, the Cubs will be the favorite in the division for the next few years.

[brewcrewdue80]

Would Cobb or Lynn cost the Brewers a draft pick?

 

Would Cobb or Lynn cost the Brewers a draft pick?

 

I believe both would.

 

Yes both would, the 3rd highest selection and 4th if both were signed. On this season it's be worth it as Milwaukee has their Competitive Balance pick in Round 2b. If it were the other way around it would be the 2nd round selection. Difference of #73 instead of that 60. Roughly, I think the Comp picks might adjust up or down some we will see.

 

BRef history of the 60 pick is a 37% Major Leaguer chance and avg 6.5WAR in their career. Travis Wood though in 2005 is last positive WAR pick at that selection.

 

For #73 it is also 37% but only a 2.4WAR contribution in career. Bryan Shaw in 2008 was last positive WAR at this selection.

 

So by the numbers to sign guys like Lynn or Cobb, aside from money cost, you are getting far more production than what this pick historically produces. And of course should Lynn/Cobb produce to what they've historically produced.

 

I'm still high on Lynn and now looking at Cobb's numbers he's in the same line of production, just not as much Games Started but career ERA/Fip in line with Lynn's.

 

 

I'd guess that with Wade Davis' signing setting the market on the elite RPs, it also probably set the price range on Cobb/Lynn to probably approach 70-84mil over 4years and not 50-60mil.

[markedman5]

[wallus]

I would assume Matt Arnold will have a major say in if he throw big money at Cobb. (Rays connection)

[DR28]

I think DS will make a bold move with someone like Lynn at some point.

 

You could be right... Have been talking to Cobb.

[DR28]

#Orioles have made another enquiry recently with RHSP Lance Lynn’s agent. Expected to put an offer on the table soon.#Rangers, #Brewers, and #Cubs are other teams continuing to express an interest.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

#Orioles have made another enquiry recently with RHSP Lance Lynn’s agent. Expected to put an offer on the table soon.#Rangers, #Brewers, and #Cubs are other teams continuing to express an interest.

 

I'm starting to get the feeling that the Brewers have multiple low-ball offers sitting out there, and are waiting to hear back from players and/or their representatives. That is likely what happened with Chacin and Gallardo, and probably what is currently happening with Boone Logan. It just happens that the Logan info leaked somehow, while the other offers are being kept close to the vest. That is a stark difference from the way the Cardinals and Cubs seem to do business. Both teams have been linked to nearly every free agent or big-name potential trade acquisition out there. I have no doubt that info is being leaked deliberately in order to keep those fan bases interested and engaged.

 

Different strokes for different folks I suppose.

[wallus]

 

I'm starting to get the feeling that the Brewers have multiple low-ball offers sitting out there, and are waiting to hear back from players and/or their representatives. That is likely what happened with Chacin and Gallardo, and probably what is currently happening with Boone Logan. It just happens that the Logan info leaked somehow, while the other offers are being kept close to the vest. That is a stark difference from the way the Cardinals and Cubs seem to do business. Both teams have been linked to nearly every free agent or big-name potential trade acquisition out there. I have no doubt that info is being leaked deliberately in order to keep those fan bases interested and engaged.

 

Different strokes for different folks I suppose.

 

If the players can't do better from another team, is it really a low ball offer?

[KeithStone53151]

 

I'm starting to get the feeling that the Brewers have multiple low-ball offers sitting out there, and are waiting to hear back from players and/or their representatives. That is likely what happened with Chacin and Gallardo, and probably what is currently happening with Boone Logan. It just happens that the Logan info leaked somehow, while the other offers are being kept close to the vest. That is a stark difference from the way the Cardinals and Cubs seem to do business. Both teams have been linked to nearly every free agent or big-name potential trade acquisition out there. I have no doubt that info is being leaked deliberately in order to keep those fan bases interested and engaged.

 

Different strokes for different folks I suppose.

 

If the players can't do better from another team, is it really a low ball offer?

 

Good point. I'll further add, is it really a low ball offer when free agents are asking for almost double what previous comparable contracts dictate they deserve?