Free Agent SP

[BrewCrewBlueDevil]

Rank your free agent pitchers with the contract offered and reason. I'd forget about Arietta and Darvish, buy one starter and replenish the bullpen.

 

1.) Andrew Cashner (2 years, 20 million) Short term #4 starter that won't break the bank. A former relief pitching stud.

2.) Joulyns Chacin (2 years, 14 million) Would not be long term and is better than Woodruff or Suter. Wish we got him at the deadline this year.

3.) CC Sabathia (1 year, 10 million plus incentives and a player option for year two, same contract) Would eat innings and had previous dominance in Milwaukee.

4.) Jason Vargas (1 year, 10 million) Would anchor the four spot and is not long term.

5.) Myles Mikolas (2 years, 10 million) Lightening in a bottle?

6.) Tyler Chatwood (3 years, 24 million) Rolling the dice but he is a ground ball machine. I worry about arm issues.

7.) Chris Tillman (1 year, 10 million) Rolling the dice. He'll be better outside the American League. Health is a concern

8.) Lance Lynn (2 years, 30 million) Should be higher but he was a Cardinal. Was decent in the pen.

9.) Jason Cobb (4 years, 50 million) An over pay. Waiting for his arm to fall off.

10.) Jamie Garcia (2 years, 16 million) Left handed ground ball machine with a ton of wear and tear.

 

I'd rather see Watson or McGee and Neshek or Reed than a big name starter. Second tier starters on short term contracts is my preference.

[nate82]

I like Cashner and Tillman on a short term deal but I would rather the Brewers try and get relief pitchers over starters this off season. There are plenty of good relief pitching options in Reed, Swarzak, McGee, and others.

[BrewCrewBlueDevil]

Don't know why I put Jason Cobb instead of Alex Cobb?

[KCBrewerfan34]

Sabathia is starting to grow on me, 1 or 2 year deal, $10-$15 million and I think the fan base would love it.

[JosephC]

1 - Tyler Chatwood. Wouldn't want to go above 2 years, 20 million or 3 years, 27 million. Fully expect to get outbid with those offers.

2 - Doug Fister. Wouldn't go more than 1 year and would probably top out the offer at 6 million. Ugly 4.88 ERA last year but had a pretty decent FIP and xFIP (3.98/4.18). Only list him ahead of Vargas because I'd guess he'd be cheaper.

3 - Jason Vargas. Was great at beginning of last year and then bombed in the second half (2.62 ERA before All-Star break, 6.38 ERA after All-Star break). If he repeated that performance he'd bridge the gap to when Burnes/Ortiz may be ready. Maybe a 1 year, 7 or 8 million dollar offer.

 

Outside of those three all the rest would likely be too expensive for me. Would rather just roll with Aaron Wilkerson at that point.

 

4 - Brett Anderson. Maybe take a shot at him as a grand reclamation project. Never came close to living up to the hype outside of one pretty good year in 2015. Was beyond awful in 2016 and 2017. Is he down to split contract level yet? If so I think he'd be worth giving a shot to in spring training. Next year will only be his age 30 season.

 

And ahead of all of these guys, number one preference for starting pitching would be to try and swing a deal for Hyun-Jin Ryu.

[NievesNoNO]

1. Chatwood- He's solid as is. If he gained a bit more control he'd be a pretty high end guy. Maybe that control is only one adjustment away. At worst, if he regresses or some of the other arms in the system progress I think he fit's in the bullpen fine. Even if they needed to outbid some teams and overpay what the initial contract projections are, he's still got some upside in there.

 

2. Mikolas- I like to bet a bit on the unknown. 5 mil per season seems like a good gamble for somebody who was really good against decent talent. For 5 million, even if he's an average last guy in the pen/swingman type arm that's not breaking the bank or taking a spot from someone else at this point.

[trwi7]

I think every single one of those options is terrible.

[wallus]

I think every single one of those options is terrible.

 

Shocking!

[sheetskout]

Sabathia is starting to grow on me, 1 or 2 year deal, $10-$15 million and I think the fan base would love it.

 

I have to say I scoffed, I exited this thread, and came back as I admit this is starting to grow on me too. Besides a bad stretch in late April/May he was pretty good the rest of the year. The fan base would be excited or it's at least something supplemental you could market around.

 

K/IP in the playoffs too and just under in August/September.

 

I'd only feel comfortable on a one-year though.

[BrewCrewBlueDevil]

" I think every single one of those options is terrible."

 

The translated version of saying I dislike your thread even though I have never offered anything of substance.

[JohnBriggs12]

I like Cashner for the value. If he fails miserably, they can eat most of a 2 year, $20 million deal. If he's okay, he'll have trade value if room is needed for an emerging young arm or when Nelson comes back.

 

I'm still not ready to give up on Guerra either. His return to 2016 form would be like finding a FA for next to nothing.

[trwi7]

I have never offered anything of substance.

 

Speaking of which, pot meet kettle.

 

But sorry for thinking giving 8 figure contracts, even short term for mediocre or worse options is not a good idea.

[CheezWizHed]

I have never offered anything of substance.

 

Speaking of which, pot meet kettle.

 

But sorry for thinking giving 8 figure contracts, even short term for mediocre or worse options is a good idea.

 

Guys, please focus on the thread and not each other

[BrewCrewBlueDevil]

If Milwaukee chooses the Anderson, Davies, Guerra, Suter, Woodruff, Lopez, Jungman, Hader, Burnes and Wilkerson route as starting pitching options you have three proven MLB starters and a lot of unproven MLB pitchers. I listed Guerra as a proven starter but that is not a 100% for sure option after last season. I believe they need to sign at least one starting pitcher (even if it is for seven digits). Without Nelson the expectations for these options are much worse that the prospective 2017 rotation a year ago.

[patrickgpe]

I would prefer not to break the bank this offseason for a starter but would rather focus on a 4/5 starter i would prefer Garcia #1, Vargas #2. The brewers will have to spend some cash to keep Nelson and Davies here long term. While i am sure the brewers can afford a big free agent contract this offseason, I don't see the sense in it. If you are correct and they can get Lynn for 2 / 30 Im for that too.

[billymac]

After seeing the SP free agent class next year and the amount of prospects we need to protect in the rule 5 next year, I think it would be wise to buy some free agents this offseason and make a big trade or two with prospects by the trade deadline. I was all for minor patches to see where the team was come deadline, but we will not be big players in the Starting Pitching free agency next year and stand to lose a lot of talent to the rule 5 if we stay the course right now.

[DR28]

Honestly, I would love to see us add Lynn... He would really solidify our rotation.

 

Anderson

Lynn

Davies

Chacin

Woodruff

[KeithStone53151]

Honestly, I would love to see us add Lynn... He would really solidify our rotation.

 

Anderson

Lynn

Davies

Chacin

Woodruff

 

I highly highly highly doubt we target a top tier FA SP. Nothing would surprise me more than that type of move. I think we roll with the current 4 listed plus an internal option(I say Hader, but someone internal) unless Stearns swings a trade for someone like Archer.

[DR28]

Honestly, I would love to see us add Lynn... He would really solidify our rotation.

 

Anderson

Lynn

Davies

Chacin

Woodruff

 

I highly highly highly doubt we target a top tier FA SP. Nothing would surprise me more than that type of move. I think we roll with the current 4 listed plus an internal option(I say Hader, but someone internal) unless Stearns swings a trade for someone like Archer.

 

I would love to add Hader to the rotation... But then we need to sign someone like Reed or Holland to replace Hader... Otherwise that's a big loss for the pen... Adding Boone Logan helps, but we need someone else if moving Josh.

[wallus]

I just can't believe some of these higher name starters haven't signed with anyone yet.

[TooLiveBrew]

I just can't believe some of these higher name starters haven't signed with anyone yet.

MLBTR had a piece today with an interesting note about this.

 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2017/12/jake-arrieta-alex-cobb-free-agent.html

 

Here on December 28th, the top four starting pitchers remain unsigned: Darvish (Wasserman), Arrieta (Boras), Cobb (Beverly Hills Sports Council), and Lance Lynn (Excel Sports Management). As the process drags into January, it will be interesting to see if any of the four have to settle for a bargain deal. The current free agency game of chicken between teams and agents has no recent precedent.

[KeithStone53151]

I just can't believe some of these higher name starters haven't signed with anyone yet.

MLBTR had a piece today with an interesting note about this.

 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2017/12/jake-arrieta-alex-cobb-free-agent.html

 

Here on December 28th, the top four starting pitchers remain unsigned: Darvish (Wasserman), Arrieta (Boras), Cobb (Beverly Hills Sports Council), and Lance Lynn (Excel Sports Management). As the process drags into January, it will be interesting to see if any of the four have to settle for a bargain deal. The current free agency game of chicken between teams and agents has no recent precedent.

 

A "bargain deal"? The asking prices I've seen are far beyond reasonable and approach comical. If any of these guys "settle" for 75% of what they are asking that should be considered a good deal for the player. I know you are quoting trade rumors, I just find the word choice amusing.

[JohnBriggs12]

I just can't believe some of these higher name starters haven't signed with anyone yet.

 

They've all set unbelievably high prices that no team is willing to bite on. Cobb and Lynn are mid tier FA. Neither should sniff anything over $15 million per year. But they're out there thinking some team will come through with $18-20 million per year. Arrieta and Darvish too are unrealistic in their demands. Both want 5 or 6 year deals at around $25 million per. That isn't going to happen. They will both be lucky to crack $88 million over four years. Forget 5 or 6 years. That's not happening.

 

Brewers are waiting. I'm not sure Stearns has the fortitude to pay the asking price in a trade for the likes of Archer. But if one of those 4 drops his price to a level that he's comfortable with, it wouldn't shock me in the least if he pulls the trigger. Payroll is still under $70 million for next year. Even if it goes up to close to $80 million by signing Walker, figure he still has $15-18 million per year to spend. I think that's part of the reason he didn't splurge on the bullpen. He wanted to save it for a starter.

[TooLiveBrew]

A "bargain deal"? The asking prices I've seen are far beyond reasonable and approach comical. If any of these guys "settle" for 75% of what they are asking that should be considered a good deal for the player. I know you are quoting trade rumors, I just find the word choice amusing.

Yeah, with the current state of MLB salaries, "bargain" can only be used in a relative sense.

 

And your point on these FAs' contract demands are probably precisely why they're locked into a game of chicken.

 

I know his resume has its warts, but Chacin is looking like a steal at this point.

[Fear The Chorizo]

They are also stuck in a free agent market where many of the high payroll teams that gobble veteran starters up are intentionally slashing their payrolls to get under luxury tax penalties and set themselves up to throw huge dollars around next offseason.

 

If there ever was an offseason where the brewers landed a big name starter at a reasonable price, this would be it.