ESPN - Hot Stove Stock Watch

[Warning Track Power]

http://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/21506599/hot-stove-stock-watch-which-contenders-buy-which-pretenders-sell

 

Talk about a downer of an article for the Brewers. Expecting a 68.9 win team with a 2% chance of making the playoffs. This obviously makes the assumption the 2017 Brewers were full of overachievers and are due for MASSIVE REGRESSION.

 

I just don't see it. Seems like an overly negative article that doesn't account for many of the pro-con arguments we have had regarding a successful 2018 for the Brewers.

[KeithStone53151]

http://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/21506599/hot-stove-stock-watch-which-contenders-buy-which-pretenders-sell

 

Talk about a downer of an article for the Brewers. Expecting a 68.9 win team with a 2% chance of making the playoffs. This obviously makes the assumption the 2017 Brewers were full of overachievers and are due for MASSIVE REGRESSION.

 

I just don't see it. Seems like an overly negative article that doesn't account for many of the pro-con arguments we have had regarding a successful 2018 for the Brewers.

 

Before I look at it, I'm going to predict that they tab the Dodgers, Cubs, Yankees/Red Sox, etc as division winners all primed to win 100 games.

[Warning Track Power]

http://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/21506599/hot-stove-stock-watch-which-contenders-buy-which-pretenders-sell

 

Talk about a downer of an article for the Brewers. Expecting a 68.9 win team with a 2% chance of making the playoffs. This obviously makes the assumption the 2017 Brewers were full of overachievers and are due for MASSIVE REGRESSION.

 

I just don't see it. Seems like an overly negative article that doesn't account for many of the pro-con arguments we have had regarding a successful 2018 for the Brewers.

 

Before I look at it, I'm going to predict that they tab the Dodgers, Cubs, Yankees/Red Sox, etc as division winners all primed to win 100 games.

And the Cardinals are project for 88 wins...

 

I hate ESPN

[bill hAll Star]

http://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/21506599/hot-stove-stock-watch-which-contenders-buy-which-pretenders-sell

 

Talk about a downer of an article for the Brewers. Expecting a 68.9 win team with a 2% chance of making the playoffs. This obviously makes the assumption the 2017 Brewers were full of overachievers and are due for MASSIVE REGRESSION.

 

I just don't see it. Seems like an overly negative article that doesn't account for many of the pro-con arguments we have had regarding a successful 2018 for the Brewers.

 

Before I look at it, I'm going to predict that they tab the Dodgers, Cubs, Yankees/Red Sox, etc as division winners all primed to win 100 games.

 

And I'd agree with those projections.

[bill hAll Star]

http://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/21506599/hot-stove-stock-watch-which-contenders-buy-which-pretenders-sell

 

Talk about a downer of an article for the Brewers. Expecting a 68.9 win team with a 2% chance of making the playoffs. This obviously makes the assumption the 2017 Brewers were full of overachievers and are due for MASSIVE REGRESSION.

 

I just don't see it. Seems like an overly negative article that doesn't account for many of the pro-con arguments we have had regarding a successful 2018 for the Brewers.

 

Before I look at it, I'm going to predict that they tab the Dodgers, Cubs, Yankees/Red Sox, etc as division winners all primed to win 100 games.

And the Cardinals are project for 88 wins...

 

I hate ESPN

 

People have rightful objections with Fangraphs projecting records as there are some flaws that even Fangraphs would concede...but this isn't ESPN big market bias. They are literally using one of the best tools that is available today to make these projections.

 

I think many might admit flaws on projections for some of the Brewers, but there are some on the other threads suggesting possible regression as well, so it's not completely unwarranted.

[Fear The Chorizo]

Sorry, I can't buy a projected 18-win drop for the 2018 Brewers, no matter who comes up with it. Especially because I don't see the NL Central full of dominant teams. The Cubs will be good, but have bigtime pitching concerns with little/no help in their minors. The Cards will be decent, while I expect the Pirates and Reds to continue struggling. The Brewers aren't playing in the NL West or AL East...

 

Kind of a pointless article to begin with - who cares about a pre-hot stove projections?

[bill hAll Star]

Looking at the Fangraphs projections, I see:

 

Arcia slight regression

Anderson -1.5 wins

Davies -1 win

Nelson loses nearly 3 wins due to coming back at the end of the year.

Woodruff with +1 win by virtue of playing most of the season.

Brinson is only worth a win - basically Broxton of 2017

Phillips - 0 WAR

Santana - 1.5 wins less

Shaw - 1.5 wins less

Knebel - 1.5 wins less

 

Yeah, I'm always a fan of using advanced numbers to project things. I also agree that a handful of guys are prime regression candidates.

 

I don't think every key player from last year's team is worse as Fangraphs thinks, though.

[ZBTMP]

It is interesting that ZIPs put the Brewers at 4th best in the NL and 84 wins.

I haven't seen any Baseball Prospectus PECOTA numbers for 2018 but they have been far more bullish on the Brewers than others last season.

 

Different systems trying to do the same thing can give different results. The Brewers would be foolish to ignore reality, but this doesn't sound alarms that the team should plan on a sub-70 win 2018 to me.

[coolhandluke121]

Looking at the Fangraphs projections, I see:

 

Arcia slight regression

Anderson -1.5 wins

Davies -1 win

Nelson loses nearly 3 wins due to coming back at the end of the year.

Woodruff with +1 win by virtue of playing most of the season.

Brinson is only worth a win - basically Broxton of 2017

Phillips - 0 WAR

Santana - 1.5 wins less

Shaw - 1.5 wins less

Knebel - 1.5 wins less

 

Yeah, I'm always a fan of using advanced numbers to project things. I also agree that a handful of guys are prime regression candidates.

 

I don't think every key player from last year's team is worse as Fangraphs thinks, though.

 

They surely won't all be worse, but I think it's fair to project most of them to be. Saying Shaw is a regression candidate is roughly like saying there's better than, say, a 55% chance that he worse than last year. It's not saying he's not a good player who can't duplicate last year's success or even improve on it. I know you understand that, but I'm wondering how many people really do. When it all averages out, the best estimate of regression to the mean for each player on the roster probably adds up to 10-12 fewer wins. That's a perfectly reasonable assessment and there's obviously a huge margin of error, but it would be irrational to say this team's baseline is 86 wins. These guys have to prove it over more than just one season in order to deserve that kind of consideration. And they need some help via free agency and trades if they want to duplicate their success, let alone improve on it.

 

I'm really surprised I ended up on this side of the argument. I actually thought I was especially bullish on the Brewers compared to most people. I definitely expected them to be respectable, and I think they have some pretty solid players. There's very few players I would want them to trade. I am predicting slightly worse years for lots of players, but I'm not suggesting that they're total flukes. But I won't be at all shocked if several guys have terrible years next year. Probably not quite as bad as Guerra and Villar this year, but still plenty of struggles reminiscent of the ones most of these players have had at various stages throughout their professional careers.

[monty57]

How are the Cubs set to win 97.1 "pre hot stove" when right now they have three starting pitchers and no closer? They have to be making some assumptions on what will happen in the offseason, right?

 

While I would certainly bet the over on their win projection for the Brewers (68.9), I do like this comment: "You would hate if the Brewers went nuts with spending this winter, though you can understand the temptation." As to the 2% chance of making the playoffs, if someone would give me $50 for every $1 I put on the Brewers to make the playoffs, I'd take it and I'm not a betting man.

[MadScientist]

So basically the projections decided that only Villar played to his true nature last year. 69 wins projected after winning 86 last year and the only real loss is Nelson for part of the year? Someone's software is buggy. If they had predicted some regression and put the Brewers at 79 wins, it would be much harder to fault them.

[FVBrewerFan]

How are the Cubs set to win 97.1 "pre hot stove" when right now they have three starting pitchers and no closer? They have to be making some assumptions on what will happen in the offseason, right?

 

While I would certainly bet the over on their win projection for the Brewers (68.9), I do like this comment: "You would hate if the Brewers went nuts with spending this winter, though you can understand the temptation." As to the 2% chance of making the playoffs, if someone would give me $50 for every $1 I put on the Brewers to make the playoffs, I'd take it and I'm not a betting man.

 

There is someone (a place actually) where you CAN actually do this you know ; )

[bill hAll Star]

How are the Cubs set to win 97.1 "pre hot stove" when right now they have three starting pitchers and no closer? They have to be making some assumptions on what will happen in the offseason, right?

 

While I would certainly bet the over on their win projection for the Brewers (68.9), I do like this comment: "You would hate if the Brewers went nuts with spending this winter, though you can understand the temptation." As to the 2% chance of making the playoffs, if someone would give me $50 for every $1 I put on the Brewers to make the playoffs, I'd take it and I'm not a betting man.

 

Yeah, this is the one that confuses me. I guess the theory is Rizzo, Bryant, Russell, Baez, Contreras, Happ, maybe Almora all having lofty WAR projections as they are all established (except Russell maybe) and that adds up to a pretty high number.

 

The one thing is that if any of these guys get hurt, they're out of replacements. Or even if Lester is still in good form but gets hurt, they have no one to dip into the minors for. I think a 97.1 win projection probably assumes too much health.

[monty57]

How are the Cubs set to win 97.1 "pre hot stove" when right now they have three starting pitchers and no closer? They have to be making some assumptions on what will happen in the offseason, right?

 

While I would certainly bet the over on their win projection for the Brewers (68.9), I do like this comment: "You would hate if the Brewers went nuts with spending this winter, though you can understand the temptation." As to the 2% chance of making the playoffs, if someone would give me $50 for every $1 I put on the Brewers to make the playoffs, I'd take it and I'm not a betting man.

 

There is someone (a place actually) where you CAN actually do this you know ; )

 

I know, but do you think Vegas would give you 50:1 odds on the Brewers making the playoffs? Seems pretty steep. ESPN doesn't have to pay out, so they can throw anything they want out there. I think Vegas would be a bit more careful with their numbers.

[monty57]

How are the Cubs set to win 97.1 "pre hot stove" when right now they have three starting pitchers and no closer? They have to be making some assumptions on what will happen in the offseason, right?

 

While I would certainly bet the over on their win projection for the Brewers (68.9), I do like this comment: "You would hate if the Brewers went nuts with spending this winter, though you can understand the temptation." As to the 2% chance of making the playoffs, if someone would give me $50 for every $1 I put on the Brewers to make the playoffs, I'd take it and I'm not a betting man.

 

Yeah, this is the one that confuses me. I guess the theory is Rizzo, Bryant, Russell, Baez, Contreras, Happ, maybe Almora all having lofty WAR projections as they are all established (except Russell maybe) and that adds up to a pretty high number.

 

The one thing is that if any of these guys get hurt, they're out of replacements. Or even if Lester is still in good form but gets hurt, they have no one to dip into the minors for. I think a 97.1 win projection probably assumes too much health.

 

I think they have to be assuming that the Cubs will sign a couple of good starting pitchers and re-sign Davis. That doesn't make this a true "pre-hot stove" projection. As they stand right now, the Cubs would be putting Montgomery as their #4 and a AAA pitcher as their #5. They'd also have to move Edwards to closer, and that leaves them with a bad bullpen. Of course they're going to do something so this doesn't happen, but why do projections assume the Cubs will make good moves to make them better while the Brewers will do nothing and fall apart?

[FVBrewerFan]

How are the Cubs set to win 97.1 "pre hot stove" when right now they have three starting pitchers and no closer? They have to be making some assumptions on what will happen in the offseason, right?

 

While I would certainly bet the over on their win projection for the Brewers (68.9), I do like this comment: "You would hate if the Brewers went nuts with spending this winter, though you can understand the temptation." As to the 2% chance of making the playoffs, if someone would give me $50 for every $1 I put on the Brewers to make the playoffs, I'd take it and I'm not a betting man.

 

There is someone (a place actually) where you CAN actually do this you know ; )

 

I know, but do you think Vegas would give you 50:1 odds on the Brewers making the playoffs? Seems pretty steep. ESPN doesn't have to pay out, so they can throw anything they want out there. I think Vegas would be a bit more careful with their numbers.

 

50/1 in Vegas? Yea, I can see it. I don't pay close attention to that stuff but wouldn't surprise me if those were the odds last year before the season started.

[MilwaukeeBeers]

Nowadays ESPN is more concerned with politics than competent sports reporting and writing. Forgive me for taking their "predictions" with a micro grain of salt.

[Fear The Chorizo]

the Brewers were around 150/1 to win the world series prior to spring training 2017...couldn't readily find odds to be one of 5 NL playoff teams.

 

The Brewers are currently 30/1 to win the world series in 2018...meaning a 50/1 chance to just make the playoffs is pretty pessimistic even by Vegas standards.

[rcc]

ESPN is what it is. A sports network that is losing money and so-called experts who are probably afraid of losing their jobs.

 

One of the great things about the past season is that the Brewers were in first place for a significant amount of time and surprised the experts. 2018 could be more of the same or even better. I look forward to the team proving the "experts" wrong again.

[jerichoholicninja]

I was going to post that after the second half collapse, that record doesn't seem that far fetched. Then I looked at the 2017 numbers. They were over .500 both halfs and every month but July, when they were 12-13. In fact, Sept/Oct was their highest winning percentage in a month and from August till the end of the year they had a better record than the rest of the year prior. Did we actually collapse or did everyone else just run past us?

[Boomer5]

Everyone wants to be known as an analytics guy until the the numbers don't agree with their Rose colored glasses of the team.

 

The team was forecast as a bottom tier team all year long according to Fangraphs and even Stearns agreed since he really didn't do much to help the team down the stretch other than some older non controllable players to fill some gaps.

 

We will know what Stearns thinks of the team by what he does with the starting rotation. If he spends it means he loves this team. If he doesn't it means he is expecting regression and there is no point in bringing in difference makers.

[nate82]

Everyone wants to be known as an analytics guy until the the numbers don't agree with their Rose colored glasses of the team.

 

The team was forecast as a bottom tier team all year long according to Fangraphs and even Stearns agreed since he really didn't do much to help the team down the stretch other than some older non controllable players to fill some gaps.

 

We will know what Stearns thinks of the team by what he does with the starting rotation. If he spends it means he loves this team. If he doesn't it means he is expecting regression and there is no point in bringing in difference makers.

 

Your analysis is completely off base.

 

Your point about the acquiring talent makes no sense at all but thanks for putting in the old school baseball logic of if a GM really believes in the team non sense. This statement is just completely off base as you are ignoring the weighting of future production versus present. The value the Brewers would have given up was just not something Stearns was willing to pay. Stearns was trying to improve the team but not so it would be detrimental to the teams future. This has nothing to do with how Stearns sees the team today but more along the lines of how he sees the team in 3-5 years from now. If a player comes by and they help or improve the team now and 3-5 years from now I don't see Stearns passing that trade up or signing a player.

[Brewer Fever]

To put out projections when not a single significant trade has been made, nor a free agent of note has signed is beyond stupid. But that's what you can expect with ESPN at this point

[brewcrewdue80]

Yeah, no way can you get 50-1 odds on Milwaukee making the playoffs. You start off with 1/3rd of the League making the playoffs. 33% to suggest a team that finished 1game from playoffs at 2%. Yeah right. World Series sure, but not just to make the Playoffs.

 

What's amazing is that the projection is Lower than it was going in to '17. It's like, can you compare the projection from last year to this projection? You'd think guys like Pina, Shaw, Anderson, Davies, Kneble, Thames and Hader should be higher than the projection from '17. Regression or not. Did they over rate Villar, Broxton, and Guerra so much that their regression alone is what comes to this projection?

[JohnBriggs12]

Hopefully Las Vegas will set their over/under total based on this projection so I can cash another ticket around Labor Day.