Getting the Big 3.

[HighHeat19]

What would be the ramifications if we get the big 3 in pitchers. Sign Darvish. Sign Arrieta. And trade for Archer.

 

Would this make us Playoff bound? Would we really be that in debt?

 

I say if we go in, then go all in or don't go at all.

 

And to add extra caramel to the ice cream we get Ohtani too.

 

Thoughts???

[Humans Need Water]

Caramel on ice cream is delicious, especially with cashews mixed in. I have nothing else to contribute

[reillymcshane]

Well, here's salary for such a team.

 

Notes: no Woodruff. I moved Hader to the pen. Asteriks (*) are arby estimates from MLB Trade Rumors. I just gave Darvish and Arietta $25M each. It might be more. Maybe less. More likely it will be higher - particularly for Darvish. But it's probably with $5M or so.

 

Also, it doesn't take into account any player that might need to be moved to acquire Archer.

 

Finally, the real challenge would come in 2019 - when we have arbitration for a lot of players - probably at least $20-25 more than we do in 2018.

 

[pre]C Manny Pina 0.55

C Stephen Vogt * 3.9

1B Jesus Aguilar 0.55

1B Eric Thames 5.0

2B Jonathan Villa* 3.0

SS Orlando Arcia 0.55

3B Travis Shaw 0.55

LF Ryan Braun 19.0 ($4M deferred)

RF Domingo Santa 0.55

CF Keon Broxton 0.55

OF Lewis Brinson 0.55

OF Brett Phillips 0.55

INF Eric Sogard 2.4

INF Hernan Perez* 2.2

SP Chase Anderso 4.75

SP Jimmy Nelson* 4.7

SP Zach Davies 0.55

SP Chris Archer 6.4

SP Jake Arietta 25.0

SP Yu Darvish 25.0

RP Josh Hader 0.55

RP Jeremy Jeffres* 2.6

RP Jared Hughes* 2.2

RP Corey Knebel* 4.1

RP Jacob Barnes 0.55

RP Brent Suter 0.55[/pre]

Total: $116.85M

[bill hAll Star]

I’m just here to note that Domingo Santa would be my favorite player.

[82brewcrew82]

A few thoughts:

 

1) Not sure they would need all four of those guys. Seems to me that two of the four would put this team in the thick of it.

2) In looking at that roster I still feel like we need another bullpen arm

3) In looking at that roster they have to trade an OF, don't they?

4) Indeed, Domingo Santa would be an instant fan favorite, make it happen!

[MrTPlush]

I’m just here to note that Domingo Santa would be my favorite player.

 

Obviously he is really in the Christmas spirit.

[JosephC]

reillymcshane brings up a great point, people have to account for arbitration raises over during the next few off-seasons because there could be some pretty big yearly increases in payroll just based on that. The trio of Shaw, Davies and Santana could cause the payroll to rise 12-15 million each season over the next three years if they keep performing at their 2017 levels. And obviously those aren't the only players that will be arbitration eligible. If Attanasio goes into free agency with a couple long term contracts and just pushes the payroll to 90 million in 2018, there is a pretty good chance the same group of players cost 105 million in 2019 and 120 million in 2020. So if the Brewers start at 115 in 2018, they are probably looking at a minimum payroll of 145 million in 2020 unless they are then trading away Shaw, Santana, Davies or these big name pitchers that people are talking about.

 

Blowing up the payroll now also would likely really limit what the team could do at the trade deadline if a couple weak spots show up on the team.

 

Fans also seem way, way too focused on the pitching. I would agree 100% that the most significant holes seem to be on the pitching staff. But after the All-Star break the Brewers were 29th in runs scored and 25th in OPS. It would be a real shame to dump all those resources in a pitching staff and then struggle to win games because the same group of players that had trouble scoring runs in 2017 also have trouble scoring runs in 2018.

 

Personally, for the long haul I think Attanasio should "hard cap" Stearns at 90 million heading into this season and would prefer the Brewers stay under the 85 million dollar mark.

[monty57]

Personally, for the long haul I think Attanasio should "hard cap" Stearns at 90 million heading into this season and would prefer the Brewers stay under the 85 million dollar mark.

 

That's about what I've been thinking, and that will allow us to add $20-$30 million to a team that was one game out of the playoffs this year.

 

To the opening post, it's not realistic to think that could happen unless we went "Marlins model" and blew up the team when the season was over (or at trade deadline if it wasn't working out). The question with that would be if we would be able to trade away Darvish and Arrieta after the season, as we would be giving them a contract that would assume the final few years of the contract will probably be overpay and we would use up one of the good years in our 2018 playoff push.

 

If we gambled on being able to flip them after the season and then we weren't able to flip them, we would be in big trouble as our payroll started pushing to levels where the ownership group would be losing $20-50 million a year. We'd have to start a fire sale with our tradeable guys who are making some money (like Davies, Shaw, Anderson) which would leave us with $50M/year sunk in two aging starters and a bunch of junk to surround them. Or even worse, we'd trade them but have to eat a lot of salary, so we'd have around 20% of our payroll going to players not on the team, making our max payroll for the next half-decade around $80-90M.

 

I'd prefer we just use some free cash to add a couple of solid setup guys and a reasonably priced SP, giving us a better team "on paper" than we had last year and allowing us room to add at the trade deadline.

 

Edit: If I had a terminal disease and knew this was the final season I'd have, I would love to see the Brewers do what the opening post suggests. I'd get a chance at seeing the Brewers win a World Series and wouldn't have to live through the repercussion in the following years.

[JosephC]

Even if I had a terminal disease I'd dislike the Darvish/Arrieta/Archer suggestion. Considering the way the offense played in the second half I'd be against dumping 100% of the resources in the starting pitching. And does a bullpen of Knebel, Hader, Jeffress, Hughes, Barnes and Suter scare anybody? Would rather take all that money and trade chip prospects and (1) sign one of the two big free agent pitchers, (2) use other free agent money to sure up the bullpen and maybe grab Avila as a left handed hitting catcher compliment, (3) use Archer trade chips to obtain a decent middle of the rotation guy and a second base upgrade.

[KeithStone53151]

Doug Melvin, is that you?

 

As one user noted, we would have too many other holes in the roster to put all our chips into starting pitching. We've seen the results. Yuni B getting way too many at bats, Mark Kotsay in CF, etc. Also, this isn't a video game. No way are the other 29 teams going to let the small market brewers get the top 2 FA SP on the market. Too many other teams are in the mix that there's no way we can outspend everyone else and get BOTH pitchers.

[FVBrewerFan]

Waste of time. Yes, bring those four guys in, by all means, but let's not stop there. Let's trade for Kershaw, Kluber, Altuve and Stanton. Sure, it's a lot of money. But it's not OUR money so why should we care?

[bill hAll Star]

Doug Melvin, is that you?

 

As one user noted, we would have too many other holes in the roster to put all our chips into starting pitching. We've seen the results. Yuni B getting way too many at bats, Mark Kotsay in CF, etc. Also, this isn't a video game. No way are the other 29 teams going to let the small market brewers get the top 2 FA SP on the market. Too many other teams are in the mix that there's no way we can outspend everyone else and get BOTH pitchers.

 

Well, I'm on your side that this won't happen due to competition and yeah, just probably won't.

 

I will say that if it somehow did, they have the system to handle that depth problem.

 

As noted above, they could probably squeeze it in payroll-wise this coming year. Where is the Yuni B or Kotsay on the roster? If an injury occurs, we have organizational depth to bring in a serviceable prospect at almost any position.

 

2019 and 2020 would be a crunch. You'd have to probably beg to offload Braun and you'd probably be non-tendering Villar, Perez, Jeffress for sure and you'd even consider non-tendering Nelson if he doesn't look back to form at the end of 2018.

[bill hAll Star]

For fun, 2019 would be:

 

Darvish 25

Arrieta 25

Braun 19

Archer 7.5

Knebel 7.5

Nelson 6.5

Anderson 6.5

Thames 6

Davies 5

Santana 5

Shaw 5

Arcia 5

Pina 3

13-14 minimum guys

 

That's like $130 million. That's probably over what Mark would pay (who knows?) and obviously your bullpen would be very thin. Hader would be assumed to be in there, Barnes would be, and Woodruff maybe could be if not included in the Archer deal. Pina could probably be nontendered as well if he's regressing, but it's a real crunch. If they could somehow find a taker for Braun, this (pipe dream) could actually almost work with a stars and scrubs approach. But the scrubs would at least be decent prospects in the Brewers' current state, even after dealing some of them for Archer.

[monty57]

For fun, 2019 would be:

 

Darvish 25

Arrieta 25

Braun 19

Archer 7.5

Knebel 7.5

Nelson 6.5

Anderson 6.5

Thames 6

Davies 5

Santana 5

Shaw 5

Arcia 5

Pina 3

13-14 minimum guys

 

That's like $130 million. That's probably over what Mark would pay (who knows?) and obviously your bullpen would be very thin. Hader would be assumed to be in there, Barnes would be, and Woodruff maybe could be if not included in the Archer deal. Pina could probably be nontendered as well if he's regressing, but it's a real crunch. If they could somehow find a taker for Braun, this (pipe dream) could actually almost work with a stars and scrubs approach. But the scrubs would at least be decent prospects in the Brewers' current state, even after dealing some of them for Archer.

 

I'd say if everything is rosy you'd trade away one of Darvish/Arrieta for a package including a pre-arby MLB guy at a position of need and some prospects, and someone like Burns can step into the rotation. Or you at least trade away Nelson who would be a short-timer and would hopefully be able to bring back a lot in trade as he's still in his arby years.

[MadScientist]

That's a recipe for winning the off season, but winning the off season isn't generally the goal. In a year and a half the Brewers would be desperately trying to dump those contracts or being forced to trade off good young players that they can't afford the arbitration for.

[bill hAll Star]

Further playing along with this "never going to happen" you could do something creative like convince Braun to take a trade and go along with Nelson for Kole Calhoun and prospects (the Angels' system is terrible, but you could get 1-2 lotto tickets).

 

That halves the yearly salary requirement for Braun (Calhoun), cuts a year off of it (Calhoun only has 2 years + $1m buyout in the 3rd), and you can platoon Broxton with him. Nelson is the lotto ticket for the Angels and fits their "3 years before Armageddon" plan and the Brewers bring some back some lotto tickets that could help down the road.

 

Of course, that's risky as heck given that Nelson could be the best pitcher of all of them in 2019 if he truly does come back to form. But this trade basically cuts $10-20 million in salary for the next 3 years.

 

Again, I'm just playing the game here. This isn't going to happen.

[bill hAll Star]

That's a recipe for winning the off season, but winning the off season isn't generally the goal. In a year and a half the Brewers would be desperately trying to dump those contracts or being forced to trade off good young players that they can't afford the arbitration for.

 

This move in theory would basically be a win at all costs for 3-4 years (I'd assume Arrieta gets 4 and Darvish gets 5). If the Darvish/Arrieta deals go south in 2-3 years, you probably just ride them out into the dumpster as you'd be doing a youth movement in 2021 anyways and you'd have a ton of minimum salary guys around Darvish and Arrieta's final year or two. Archer's deal is obviously affordable and not an issue.

 

It would not preclude the Brewers from winning in 2021 or 2022 or beyond, either. They have such depth in the farm that even after dealing for Archer, they should have a good wave of young, cheap talent from 2020 and after.