Jake Arrieta

[RockCoCougars]

Arrieta will most likely be an albatross wherever he goes. I will be furious if it is the Brewers. I say that because I believe he was pitching injured last season. Lots of guys will go on fumes in their free agent season in an attempt to cash in, look at how Garza pitched with a torn labrium. I'd be willing to bet that whatever team signs him will be paying at least a million a start over the length of the contract.... could be far worse than that.

[RockCoCougars]

 

My argument is that Arrieta is NOT a premium pitcher. I'm not against the Brewers getting him, but not for the price.

 

Exactly. If he was considered a premium pitcher, the Brewers wouldn't even be players and he would have signed with a big market team long ago. Does anybody think that Kershaw, Kluber, etc. would still be trolling for offers in mid-January?

[HighHeat19]

There's seems to be a new strategy put in place by some teams in regards to pitching and especially the Astro's and now David Stearns who is a cut from the Astro's cloth. And my opinion is that this strategy is to roll with your cost effective pitching staff and then get by with your in season cheap FA's as well as minor league spot starts.

 

If your team looks to be a contender you make a move mid-season that will revolve around a seasoned starter that only has a few years remaining or can be had for lesser assets because they are usually pitchers who signed albatross contracts that the holding (out of contention) team wants to rid themselves of. See Justin Verlander.

 

I would rather see the Brewers go this route as well and if they are in contention. I could easily see a trade for a Zack Greinke or Johnny Cueto, etc. if their pitching slightly above average. And since these guys are not all world prospects their price in prospects can be relevant to the amount of salary to be eaten by their former team. (Some may argue Sonny Gray here, but Sonny's contract and age were not much of a negative. The A's FO would of prolly been fine if they weren't able to trade him)

 

BTW, Verlander was sent for Houston's #3, #9 & #11 prospects who were rated lower than the Brewers at that time. At this time, this slots to be Ortiz, Dubon, and Peralta. Verlander was 10-8 with an ERA of 3.82 and 176 K's to 176 innings pitched. Detroit also ate $10 mil of his $28 mil salary for at least 2017. Verlander than gave the Astros 5 straight wins, an ERA of 1.06 and 40 K's in 34 innings pitched. As well as a World Series title.

 

Greinke's numbers at the all star break were pretty close to Verlander's at the all star break last year. Due to Greinkes higher salary and longer years. It may even cost less than what the Astros gave up to acquire Verlander. Also, the Brewers #3, 9, and 11 rated prospects were rated higher than the Astro's. This also has to assume that the Diamondbacks are out of it.

 

Now it doesn't have to be Greinke, but any veteran who falls into that Verlander stat/salary profile. Plus you are getting a pitcher who you know where they are physiologically since a July trade will put them within a week of their last start. Right now, who really knows where Arrieta's arm is at.

[reillymcshane]

There's seems to be a new strategy put in place by some teams in regards to pitching and especially the Astro's and now David Stearns who is a cut from the Astro's cloth. And my opinion is that this strategy is to roll with your cost effective pitching staff and then get by with your in season cheap FA's as well as minor league spot starts.

 

If your team looks to be a contender you make a move mid-season that will revolve around a seasoned starter that only has a few years remaining or can be had for lesser assets because they are usually pitchers who signed albatross contracts that the holding (out of contention) team wants to rid themselves of. See Justin Verlander.

 

I would rather see the Brewers go this route as well and if they are in contention. I could easily see a trade for a Zack Greinke or Johnny Cueto, etc. if their pitching slightly above average. And since these guys are not all world prospects their price in prospects can be relevant to the amount of salary to be eaten by their former team. (Some may argue Sonny Gray here, but Sonny's contract and age were not much of a negative. The A's FO would of prolly been fine if they weren't able to trade him)

 

BTW, Verlander was sent for Houston's #3, #9 & #11 prospects who were rated lower than the Brewers at that time. At this time, this slots to be Ortiz, Dubon, and Peralta. Verlander was 10-8 with an ERA of 3.82 and 176 K's to 176 innings pitched. Detroit also ate $10 mil of his $28 mil salary for at least 2017. Verlander than gave the Astros 5 straight wins, an ERA of 1.06 and 40 K's in 34 innings pitched. As well as a World Series title.

 

Greinke's numbers at the all star break were pretty close to Verlander's at the all star break last year. Due to Greinkes higher salary and longer years. It may even cost less than what the Astros gave up to acquire Verlander. Also, the Brewers #3, 9, and 11 rated prospects were rated higher than the Astro's. This also has to assume that the Diamondbacks are out of it.

 

Now it doesn't have to be Greinke, but any veteran who falls into that Verlander stat/salary profile. Plus you are getting a pitcher who you know where they are physiologically since a July trade will put them within a week of their last start. Right now, who really knows where Arrieta's arm is at.

I think you're right about this kind of thing. And not just pitching. I think it's anything of need.

 

But I think the key thing is giving the team financial flexibility going into the season. It's why I'm good with passing on a guy like Arrieta. Yes, it's a risk going with an unknown guy, but if the season progresses well, then you look to make a move. We have a lot of prospect capital that will be of interest to teams. As you noted, the Astros did that with Verlander - and he was a huge addition.

 

I'm not saying no to an Arrieta - but I'm wary at the price being bandied about.

[Boomer5]

Signing an over 30 year old regression candidate to a big money contract when much of your team is a regression candidate themselves is about the most unalytics thing you can do.

 

This is the opposite of collecting young controllable talent.

[KeithStone53151]

Signing an over 30 year old regression candidate to a big money contract when much of your team is a regression candidate themselves is about the most unalytics thing you can do.

 

This is the opposite of collecting young controllable talent.

 

You are about half correct. Signing Arrieta is absolutely the opposite of acquiring young controllable talent. But it's been refuted in other threads that much of the team is a regression candidate. Far more players likely to improve in 2018 than regress.

[MNBrew]

Aren't "over 30" and "regression candidate" pretty much synonymous?

 

In a lot of people's minds here, it seems the answer is an unequivocal "yes." But not every guy regresses as soon as he hits 30. "Regression candidate" isn't the same as "diminished production" until the latter actually happens, and every player's different, so there's no guarantee when that decline will begin for any specific player.

 

I get the fears and I understand production trends vs. age. But really, what potential Brewers FA contract offer/signing doesn't result in most hard-core Brewers fans (or at least BF.net posters) forecasting Doom & Gloom and doing their best Chicken Little, preaching to any who will listen that the sky's falling faster than ever . . . . before the ink's even dry on the guy's contract?

 

For a team like the Brewers to swim in that pool, they need to be very shrewd about it. For as much as many here seem to have Melvin-years trepidation about signing Arrieta, I'm willing to give Stearns and his slant on things a little more slack because (for obvious reasons) he has yet to prove he'll make the same "regret by the contract's end" decisions.

[brewcrewdue80]

[http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=4153&position=Purl]

 

Figured Arrieta would be too pricey to be signed by Milw realistically but since we're among the "teams interested" I'll chime in against it and Fangraphs link above will show why.

 

Arrieta's 2 best seasons according to FG came with a 50-ish pct FB and a 27 pct Cutter usage. Last two seasons he's been above 60pct FB and under 15pct Cutter. A cutter that went from elite ranking to being a bad pitch to even throw this season. Want to know what else FG shows? Velocity drops over 1MPH across the board in 17 vs 16 which was less than those 2 Elite years. Hmm, a year where velocity reading was up by most, his dropped A Lot!

 

15 HRs given up in the 2 elite seasons combined, over 20 in 17 alone. I mean this is Yovani Gallardo drop territory. I'd suspect Arrieta will be top 10 all time worst FA signings unless somebody fixes his confidence in that Cutter and adds velocity.

that 15 season? He had a huge GB pct that is an anomally to his career. I give it 0 chance he'll ever have one 6FWar season or better the rest of his career.

 

Top 10 worst FA signing prediction, it can't be any clearer behind those numbers.

[HighHeat19]

Excellent write up BrewCrew80 and I agree 100%.

 

I think and hope this is the year that MLB teams says no to Scott Boras. I hope Boras and his clients get a reality check here. Some writers are saying there's collusion amongst teams. No, instead GM's are seeing that these high priced Boras clients are not worth their $.

[JosephC]

 

My argument is that Arrieta is NOT a premium pitcher. I'm not against the Brewers getting him, but not for the price.

 

Exactly. If he was considered a premium pitcher, the Brewers wouldn't even be players and he would have signed with a big market team long ago. Does anybody think that Kershaw, Kluber, etc. would still be trolling for offers in mid-January?

 

Depends on what the asking price was. If Kershaw was available and demanding a 10 year, 350 million dollar deal then he'd probably be trolling for offers mid-January. Once age and performance is taken into account, I'd say that's about equivalent to Arrieta's 8 year, 200 million demand.

[StearnsFTW]

I see a lot of people are already trying to talk themselves into Arrieta just in case the Brewers sign him............

 

 

**guilty**

 

I'm on my way there myself.

[danzig6767]

I think Arrieta ends up getting less guaranteed years/overall compensation than he and Boras envisioned, but come down to a final decision, some team offers a better contract than the Brewers.

 

I'm not as down as others are on how Arrieta will produce, at least for say the next two years, but i don't want to be on the hook for years four and potentially five, assuming it would take a fifth year option of some kid to get a deal done.

[JosephC]

I'll stick with my 5 year, 140 million guess and don't see the Brewers being a player at those numbers.

[KeithStone53151]

I'll stick with my 5 year, 140 million guess and don't see the Brewers being a player at those numbers.

 

I could see either 4/110 with a vesting option or 5/125 with no option. I don't think it goes higher than that.

[reillymcshane]

I see a lot of people are already trying to talk themselves into Arrieta just in case the Brewers sign him............

 

 

**guilty**

 

I'm on my way there myself.

In some ways you have to do it. You get a player and what are the options? Hope he does well. Of course not. You hope and pray that the guy comes out on the plus side of the ledger because he's now YOUR guy - whether you like him or not.

 

I look at Arrieta and see a lot of land mines. But I see the positives. And we would land him, I'd smile and hope and pray that he can be the guy we need - even if I'm skeptical in a lot of ways.

[Boomer5]

He is a good but not great pitcher and it's not my money so if the Brewers over pay that's not really going to affect me.

 

My issues is signing a 32 year old pitcher represents a dramatic departure from what we were told was a rebuilding program. You don't rebuild around high priced 32 year old free agents.

[MNBrew]

He is a good but not great pitcher and it's not my money so if the Brewers over pay that's not really going to affect me.

 

My issues is signing a 32 year old pitcher represents a dramatic departure from what we were told was a rebuilding program. You don't rebuild around high priced 32 year old free agents.

There's still a place for vets in any rebuilding mix and I'd much prefer an Arrieta over what we got out of Matt Garza (although the recent revelation of Garza's collision-induced shoulder injury puts his 2nd half struggles in a totally different light).

 

There was really only Braun and Jeffress (and I suppose Vogt) going into this off-season in terms of established vets -- not a bad thing, but rarely does any rebuild gain ALL its steam before you begin adding vets. Now we've added Chacin, Logan, and Gallardo, and only two of those are sure bets to make the club if healthy. Point being, adding an Arrieta or someone comparable, whether as a FA or via trade, doesn't blow the rebuild out of the water.

 

My hunch is that if we add an Arrieta or Lynn or Cobb, it's because the financial cost to signing them represented a better deal for the organization than the cost of prospects to go after an Archer type.

 

I'm not saying Arrieta is my ideal move (I don't know what my ideal move is because I can't know the potential costs of every option), but I do trust Stearns if he feels Arrieta is the best needed strategic option the Brewers have for improving the rotation for not just this year but beyond.

[reillymcshane]

He is a good but not great pitcher and it's not my money so if the Brewers over pay that's not really going to affect me.

 

My issues is signing a 32 year old pitcher represents a dramatic departure from what we were told was a rebuilding program. You don't rebuild around high priced 32 year old free agents.

There's still a place for vets in any rebuilding mix and I'd much prefer an Arrieta over what we got out of Matt Garza (although the recent revelation of Garza's collision-induced shoulder injury puts his 2nd half struggles in a totally different light).

 

There was really only Braun and Jeffress (and I suppose Vogt) going into this off-season in terms of established vets -- not a bad thing, but rarely does any rebuild gain ALL its steam before you begin adding vets. Now we've added Chacin, Logan, and Gallardo, and only two of those are sure bets to make the club if healthy. Point being, adding an Arrieta or someone comparable, whether as a FA or via trade, doesn't blow the rebuild out of the water.

 

My hunch is that if we add an Arrieta or Lynn or Cobb, it's because the financial cost to signing them represented a better deal for the organization than the cost of prospects to go after an Archer type.

 

I'm not saying Arrieta is my ideal move (I don't know what my ideal move is because I can't know the potential costs of every option), but I do trust Stearns if he feels Arrieta is the best needed strategic option the Brewers have for improving the rotation for not just this year but beyond.

Well said.

[Boomer5]

He is a good but not great pitcher and it's not my money so if the Brewers over pay that's not really going to affect me.

 

My issues is signing a 32 year old pitcher represents a dramatic departure from what we were told was a rebuilding program. You don't rebuild around high priced 32 year old free agents.

There's still a place for vets in any rebuilding mix and I'd much prefer an Arrieta over what we got out of Matt Garza (although the recent revelation of Garza's collision-induced shoulder injury puts his 2nd half struggles in a totally different light).

 

There was really only Braun and Jeffress (and I suppose Vogt) going into this off-season in terms of established vets -- not a bad thing, but rarely does any rebuild gain ALL its steam before you begin adding vets. Now we've added Chacin, Logan, and Gallardo, and only two of those are sure bets to make the club if healthy. Point being, adding an Arrieta or someone comparable, whether as a FA or via trade, doesn't blow the rebuild out of the water.

 

My hunch is that if we add an Arrieta or Lynn or Cobb, it's because the financial cost to signing them represented a better deal for the organization than the cost of prospects to go after an Archer type.

 

I'm not saying Arrieta is my ideal move (I don't know what my ideal move is because I can't know the potential costs of every option), but I do trust Stearns if he feels Arrieta is the best needed strategic option the Brewers have for improving the rotation for not just this year but beyond.

 

It's a win now move and not a very good one unless people feel we are an Arrieta away from being a playoff team.

[brewtank34]

He is a good but not great pitcher and it's not my money so if the Brewers over pay that's not really going to affect me.

 

My issues is signing a 32 year old pitcher represents a dramatic departure from what we were told was a rebuilding program. You don't rebuild around high priced 32 year old free agents.

There's still a place for vets in any rebuilding mix and I'd much prefer an Arrieta over what we got out of Matt Garza (although the recent revelation of Garza's collision-induced shoulder injury puts his 2nd half struggles in a totally different light).

 

There was really only Braun and Jeffress (and I suppose Vogt) going into this off-season in terms of established vets -- not a bad thing, but rarely does any rebuild gain ALL its steam before you begin adding vets. Now we've added Chacin, Logan, and Gallardo, and only two of those are sure bets to make the club if healthy. Point being, adding an Arrieta or someone comparable, whether as a FA or via trade, doesn't blow the rebuild out of the water.

 

My hunch is that if we add an Arrieta or Lynn or Cobb, it's because the financial cost to signing them represented a better deal for the organization than the cost of prospects to go after an Archer type.

 

I'm not saying Arrieta is my ideal move (I don't know what my ideal move is because I can't know the potential costs of every option), but I do trust Stearns if he feels Arrieta is the best needed strategic option the Brewers have for improving the rotation for not just this year but beyond.

 

It's a win now move and not a very good one unless people feel we are an Arrieta away from being a playoff team.

 

Yah, but this would not be just for this year. This would/could be a win now move for next year and the year after. We have a pretty stellar minor league system with some could-be-gems for pitching. We have the finances this year to add a top of the rotation pitcher which will help our team this...but...be primed to be a top of the rotation pitcher next year as well. Next years FA class is supposedly way better than this one. Imagine already having Arrieta in the fold along with Anderson and Nelson. Now you add one more ACE to that rotation next year and it will become a win now move.

 

If Sterns can pull this off, I would applaud it and not look back.

[MrTPlush]

I’m really not going to get all up in arms about Arrieta because I just don’t think our offer is going to win. It sounds like it is going to take over $20mil AVV and the winner is the first to nibble on 5 years. I don’t envision Stearns being that guy if the price gets towards $120mil+

 

Once he signs it will be interesting if our offer leaks out. My guess is we offered a highly aggressive three year deal.

[Austin Tatious]

I agree completely. I’d bet we are around 3 for $70 M.

 

That wouldn’t be the end of the world either way. Guys that age try to squeeze out that extra year. It’s not collusion to not buy into that. There are plenty of examples of guys who fade and that last year becomes unpalatable. I’d imagine we wouldn’t do 4 and say $92.5.

[trwi7]

Yah, but this would not be just for this year. This would/could be a win now move for next year and the year after. We have a pretty stellar minor league system with some could-be-gems for pitching.

 

Assuming Arrieta doesn't continue declining. I also strongly disagree that we have a stellar minor league system.

[pacopete4]

If Stearns is offering three years I’ll be really impressed because that’s about the only way I understand our interest and even then it’s questionable.

[billymac]

Listening to MLB radio and they made a comment that no one has been signed for more than 3 years this offseason, which is clearly a correction in the market. I could see an aggressive 3 year offer with club options for 4 and 5 or more incentives built in that would pay based on performance. I don't think the Brewers will be the high bidder by years or total dollar amount though.