Jake Arrieta

[wildcat2237]

 

I'm not buying it but Boras only has to pull out the hot name right now which is Verlander and only convince one owner that this is what he is going to get if he invests in Arrieta.

 

You're exactly right. Boras can ask whatever the hell he wants. All he has to do is convince one owner. Hopefully its not Mark A. m

[KeithStone53151]

 

If this is true, the hardest of all passes. He must be looking for a 7 or 8 year deal, Boras must be nuts.

That's Boros being Boros. Of course he's pumping up his guy. That's his job - and he's good at it. He can ask for whatever he wants - it doesn't mean anyone will give him a deal that long and at those dollars.

 

Well right, I could ask for $100 million to pitch for someone. I feel like in the past, Boras has at least been realistic in his asking price. That he'd at least have a comp or some sort of support for his ask. If Arrieta were 27 or 28, then fine I can understand that ask. 7/200 wouldn't be ridiculous, he might not get it but it wouldn't be ridiculous. But Arrieta will be 32. $200 million is likely at least a 7 or 8 year deal as nobody is paying $30 million plus for him, that's more than Kershaw got. I think it would be more reasonable for him to say 7/175 as his ask but eventually settle in the 130 range on 5 years or 150 range on 6. I feel like every GM is rolling their eyes and saying "hard pass" on such a ridiculous ask. But what do I know, I'm not a super agent.

[JosephC]

He does have a comparable. Justin Verlander. In March 2013 he signed a 7 year, 180 million dollar contract and he was 30 years old at the time (Arrieta will be 31 when he signs this deal). Considering we are 5 years down the road, a 7 year, 200 million dollar contract would actually be less money in "present day MLB dollars" than the Verlander contract. Taking that 180 million and increasing by 7% each of five years would put it at 252+ million. See, Boras is actually offering Arrieta at a bargain 200 million. At least that's what he will be telling the interested owners. Must be because Arrieta is one year older than Verlander was.

[OnaBadger58]

 

If this is true, the hardest of all passes. He must be looking for a 7 or 8 year deal, Boras must be nuts.

That's Boros being Boros. Of course he's pumping up his guy. That's his job - and he's good at it. He can ask for whatever he wants - it doesn't mean anyone will give him a deal that long and at those dollars.

Exactly. It's early in Free Agency, so you are going to hear/see some pretty inflated numbers for players. No different that JD Martinez seeking a $200 million contract. Set the bar high, and work your way down.

[Fear The Chorizo]

The problem for Boras is Arrieta's last name isn't Verlander, and the owner he conned into Verlander's contract is dead. Arrieta simply doesn't have the same track record as Verlander did at the time of his extension. Boras is picking the last 3 years and leaving out Arrieta's early career struggles.

 

Is it collusion or blackballing if the owners/front offices all tell Boras to pound sand with that nonsense?

[reillymcshane]

I have heard that Arrieta is likely to net a deal of at least five years at $25M+.

 

Milwaukee is interested - even at that price.

 

The lack of quality starters has made Arrieta of interest to many teams - which may drive him out of our price range.

[Devinep]

At that price, or even close, it’s a terrible idea

[TURBO]

2 years at 25 million each, I'd think about it, anything longer and I hang up the phone, or never place the call.

[LouisEly]

I heard a comment during the winter meetings, don't remember who said it and if it was a GM or an owner, but he said that "5 year contracts for pitchers don't turn out well". I think a lot of other GMs/owners are thinking that now, and that's why Darvish/Arrieta/Lynn/Cobb are still out there and the 2-year guys are getting deals.

[bill hAll Star]

I heard a comment during the winter meetings, don't remember who said it and if it was a GM or an owner, but he said that "5 year contracts for pitchers don't turn out well". I think a lot of other GMs/owners are thinking that now, and that's why Darvish/Arrieta/Lynn/Cobb are still out there and the 2-year guys are getting deals.

 

I think if we didn't have this bonanza for teams to get under the luxury tax threshold, they'd still get signed. If I'm the Yankees, I know that Arrieta may be garbage in years 4 and 5, maybe even year 3...but I can absorb it.

 

None of the big dogs are out there to bid against each other, really.

[JosephC]

I was thinking Arrieta would max out at four years but after listening to the Boras schpeel and knowing how gullible MLB owners that want to win are, I'll guess Arrieta gets a 5 year, 140 million dollar deal.

[bill hAll Star]

I was thinking Arrieta would max out at four years but after listening to the Boras schpeel and knowing how gullible MLB owners that want to win are, I'll guess Arrieta gets a 5 year, 140 million dollar deal.

 

This might be a sidebar, and I can't say that every big $ signing in a vacuum is a great idea...but I'd say basically all of the top 10-15 payrolls in baseball have put several massive signings like this out there.

 

All of these teams knowingly overpay a bunch of tier 2 free agents and just live with the idea that they're going to be expensive DL/bench/mop-up players for the back end of their deals.

 

Over the past decade, you look at the top 10-15 payrolls: They've all either had very consistent success like the Nats, got to one or more WS (Tigers, Mets, Rangers), or won some.

 

I'd say the only teams that have failed are the Angels, Blue Jays, and Mariners. The Blue Jays and Mariners are more in the 10-15 range.

 

Look at the bottom 15 payrolls and you've got Cleveland, St. Louis (they are almost always top 10 in payroll but dipped down last year), and Houston (they'll be a top 10, maybe top 5 payroll very soon). Philly is down there but their payroll was huge when they won it all. Rays and A's had nice runs but you can only do that for so long. The Royals probably belong down in this discussion, to be fair.

 

Point being: you may feel the backlash of some painfully bad contracts as you tear it down to rebuild as Detroit is doing right now, but you have some very good seasons to show for overpaying a bunch of guys.

[Eye Black]

I have heard that Arrieta is likely to net a deal of at least five years at $25M+.

 

Milwaukee is interested - even at that price.

 

The lack of quality starters has made Arrieta of interest to many teams - which may drive him out of our price range.

I thought Greinke’s Arizona contract was completely insane when it was signed, but I think would rather pay Greinke $139 million for his next four seasons than Arrieta $125-plus million over the next five years. Granted they are Greinke’s age 34-37 seasons, but Arrieta will be 36 in the final season of a five year deal. I would also predict that Greinke ages better.

[Eye Black]

A Jake Arrieta update via this Chicago Sun-Times Article...

 

And he [Jim Hickey] still may have a chance to retain Arrieta for his staff, though a long shot. A source close to Arrieta said he has offers from six teams, including the Cubs, for three- and four-year contracts at “overpay” annual values.

 

The Brewers and Cardinals are among those teams.

 

The source suggested one team might be close to making a five-year offer but wasn’t sure which team.

[KeithStone53151]

A Jake Arrieta update via this Chicago Sun-Times Article...

 

And he [Jim Hickey] still may have a chance to retain Arrieta for his staff, though a long shot. A source close to Arrieta said he has offers from six teams, including the Cubs, for three- and four-year contracts at “overpay” annual values.

 

The Brewers and Cardinals are among those teams.

 

The source suggested one team might be close to making a five-year offer but wasn’t sure which team.

 

Nice find. I wouldn't be surprised if Arrieta doesn't sign until late February and after Cobb/Lynn/Darvish all sign. I'm expecting a front loaded 5/110 type deal, or 4/96ish with a 5th year vesting option.

 

And I really hope it isn't the Brewers.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

A Jake Arrieta update via this Chicago Sun-Times Article...

 

And he [Jim Hickey] still may have a chance to retain Arrieta for his staff, though a long shot. A source close to Arrieta said he has offers from six teams, including the Cubs, for three- and four-year contracts at “overpay” annual values.

 

The Brewers and Cardinals are among those teams.

 

The source suggested one team might be close to making a five-year offer but wasn’t sure which team.

 

Nice find. I wouldn't be surprised if Arrieta doesn't sign until late February and after Cobb/Lynn/Darvish all sign. I'm expecting a front loaded 5/110 type deal, or 4/96ish with a 5th year vesting option.

 

And I really hope it isn't the Brewers.

 

Arrieta would be an "all in"-type move. There is a lot of risk involved, though. It would sure be nice to strength our rotation while weakening the Cubs', but I get the fear of backfire as well. If it happens, though, look for Stearns to immediately sign Walker and jettison Villar. I think another high-leverage reliever would be signed as well, and Santana would be taken off the trading block.

[JosephC]

The million dollar question is in what dollar range does "overpay" land. Seems like most projections had him at 25 million per season and Boras was reported as looking for an 8-year, 200 million dollar deal which would also be 25 million per season. How much above that merits the term "overpay?" Would have to think at least 27 million. At a minimum that would mean a 3-year, 81 million dollar offer.

[pacopete4]

Makes me angry that we are even involved here. Every sign points to his great year being an outlier and the trend are heading the wrong way with just about every one of his stats. I thought Stearns was supposed to be smarter than this?

[ewitkows]

I wonder why more contracts aren't front loaded. If we have him 35,30,25,20,15 he would get his $125 mil but that back end of the contract might be movable and we have the cash now, in 5 years we are going to need to be locking up some of our FAs.

[NievesNoNO]

The million dollar question is in what dollar range does "overpay" land. Seems like most projections had him at 25 million per season and Boras was reported as looking for an 8-year, 200 million dollar deal which would also be 25 million per season. How much above that merits the term "overpay?" Would have to think at least 27 million. At a minimum that would mean a 3-year, 81 million dollar offer.

 

I think overpay would likely mean something different for every team. Imo, just about any contract Arrieta will sign is going to be an overpay, unless he figures out how to adjust to aging and losing velocity. Some pitchers are able to do that pretty successfully. If you're asking what would the Brewers have to "over pay" to get him on a shorter term deal than expected then I think you're probably pretty close. I'd say 4 years $120 million. Maybe the 4th years could be some sort of vesting option or you could include one of those increasining popular opt out clauses. I still think some team antes up for him at 5-6 years with more guaranteed money.

[Mudville9]

Makes me angry that we are even involved here. Every sign points to his great year being an outlier and the trend are heading the wrong way with just about every one of his stats. I thought Stearns was supposed to be smarter than this?

 

I'm hoping he is so smart that he just driving up the price for the Cubs and Cardinals.

[pacopete4]

Makes me angry that we are even involved here. Every sign points to his great year being an outlier and the trend are heading the wrong way with just about every one of his stats. I thought Stearns was supposed to be smarter than this?

 

I'm hoping he is so smart that he just driving up the price for the Cubs and Cardinals.

 

I guess that is about the last hope left with this situation.

[JohnBriggs12]

Makes me angry that we are even involved here. Every sign points to his great year being an outlier and the trend are heading the wrong way with just about every one of his stats. I thought Stearns was supposed to be smarter than this?

 

Calling his great year an "outlier" to make a point he's not worth big money is really misleading. His great year was one of the greatest years of any pitcher since the mound was lowered in 1969. It would have been an outlier for Verlander, Kershaw, Randy Johnson, etc. He logged close to 250 innings counting playoffs that year. Regression was inevitable. He followed that up with another big workload in 2016 and a short offseason. Verlander experienced a similar regression in his age 30-31 seasons but bounced back after logging only 133 innings at age 32.

 

Arrieta's 2nd half in 2017: 2.28 ERA in 12 starts with a 1.09 WHIP. His first half was an outlier. The guy is a tremendous competitor and a workout fanatic. I'd take him over Grienke in a heartbeat. I wouldn't go over 4 years with an option, but if there's a guy out there worth close to $25 million a year, he's it. It's a big risk certainly (all multi year deals to pitchers are), but the Brewers have payroll room and could absorb it. It's 2018. Revenues across baseball are up significantly since the Brewers went "all in" 7-8 years ago and their payroll approached $100 million.

[pacopete4]

Makes me angry that we are even involved here. Every sign points to his great year being an outlier and the trend are heading the wrong way with just about every one of his stats. I thought Stearns was supposed to be smarter than this?

 

Calling his great year an "outlier" to make a point he's not worth big money is really misleading. His great year was one of the greatest years of any pitcher since the mound was lowered in 1969. It would have been an outlier for Verlander, Kershaw, Randy Johnson, etc. He logged close to 250 innings counting playoffs that year. Regression was inevitable. He followed that up with another big workload in 2016 and a short offseason. Verlander experienced a similar regression in his age 30-31 seasons but bounced back after logging only 133 innings at age 32.

 

Arrieta's 2nd half in 2017: 2.28 ERA in 12 starts with a 1.09 WHIP. His first half was an outlier. The guy is a tremendous competitor and a workout fanatic. I'd take him over Grienke in a heartbeat. I wouldn't go over 4 years with an option, but if there's a guy out there worth close to $25 million a year, he's it. It's a big risk certainly (all multi year deals to pitchers are), but the Brewers have payroll room and could absorb it. It's 2018. Revenues across baseball are up significantly since the Brewers went "all in" 7-8 years ago and their payroll approached $100 million.

 

I hope you are right (if we do sign him) but to me, it's just way too big of a risk for the Brewers to bet on when all the data is telling the exact opposite. When we are trying to build a serious WS contender in 1-2 more years and this guy is dragging down $25 million of our budget, it could really affect things. Not only that but it puts us in the same position as we basically were with Garza. Well, you are paying him "X" amount of money so he gets the ball every five days no matter how terrible they are. I just don't want to see the Brewers in that type of situation anymore.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

I hope you are right (if we do sign him) but to me, it's just way too big of a risk for the Brewers to bet on when all the data is telling the exact opposite. When we are trying to build a serious WS contender in 1-2 more years and this guy is dragging down $25 million of our budget, it could really affect things. Not only that but it puts us in the same position as we basically were with Garza. Well, you are paying him "X" amount of money so he gets the ball every five days no matter how terrible they are. I just don't want to see the Brewers in that type of situation anymore.

 

Matt Garza was never, ever in Arrieta's class as a pitcher. At his best, Garza was probably a #3-4 on a good team, and a marginal #2 on a bad one. Arrieta is a legit #1 pitcher. If you are looking at the Brewers from a few years ago, Garza was Marcum as far as upside, while Arrieta is Greinke/Sabathia/Sheets territory.

 

Yes, I wish he was 28 years old, but like Briggs pointed out, the guy is a workout fanatic. And big contracts do not nearly come close to hamstringing teams as they did 10 years ago.