Jake Arrieta

[brewmann04]

I cant see DS making a play for jake.

[JohnBriggs12]

Why is Arrieta going to decline his contract after two seasons? He most likely will suck in 2 seasons and will love to get paid $20M to go out ever five days like Garza did last season. Like Nancy Reagan says; "Just say no" to overpriced and declining pitchers.

 

The benefit of opt-outs from the Brewer perspective is that in theory, if a guy has an opt-out, he has the incentive to perform well immediately instead of just being happy with the big money. Personally, I wouldn't give Arrieta a deal that averages more than $23 million per year. He's simply not a $25 million guy. Seems like a small difference but you have to draw the line somewhere. Make the first couple years $25 million, then $22 and $20 over the next two with an $18 million option and give him an opt out after 2. If he pitches like an ace in 18 and 19, he'll look for more elsewhere. That would be fine with me.

[Boomer5]

Arrieta is the opposite of young controllable talent.

 

He is clearly on the downside of his run from two years ago. I have a feeling the Brewers are only in the conversation to pump up his price.

[adambr2]

Arrieta is the opposite of young controllable talent.

 

He is clearly on the downside of his run from two years ago. I have a feeling the Brewers are only in the conversation to pump up his price.

 

I don't know if it's only to pump up his price, but yes I agree there's probably a lot more smoke than fire. Stearns himself reiterated the other day that they're in the market for starters, but as far as specific names like Arrieta and Lynn, he doesn't know where people are getting that from.

 

It just comes with the territory of what you're in the market for. Was there any major starter at the trade deadline that we WEREN'T linked to? Quintana yes, Gray yes, Verlander yes. Can't remember us being linked to Darvish, but if he had more control and wasn't just a rental, we probably would have been.

 

So I'm not at all surprised at this point to see us linked to Arrieta and Lynn. Maybe you find a soft spot in the market and land a big starter for what you feel is a bargain price. Or more likely you drive up the market for your competitors. Absolutely no harm in kicking the tires on anything.

[JosephC]

Arrieta from 2015 to 2017:

 

ERA = 1.77, 3.10, 3.53

Innings = 229, 197 1/3, 168 1/3

FIP = 2.35, 3.52, 4.16

WHIP = 0.87, 1.08, 1.21

H/9 = 5.9, 6.3, 8.0

HR/9 = 0.4, 0.7, 1.2

BB/9 = 1.9, 3.5, 2.9

K/9 = 9.3, 8.7, 8.7

 

The fastball velocity has gone from 94.9 to 94.3 to 92.6 over the last three seasons.

 

Perhaps Stearns is looking at all of this and thinks it might limit what Arrieta can get on the open market and if it does then maybe the Brewers can be a player for Arrieta. There are some numbers that indicate that Arrieta's performance could level off and he'll keep performing at his 2017 level over the next couple seasons. For example, his HR/FB rate has gone from 7.8% to 11.1% to 14.0% and that last number is pretty close to league average. His BABIP has gone from the .240's to .279 which is still below league average but not a ridiculous number. His GB% dropped to 45% last year after having been 56% in 2015 and 52% in 2016, it's very possible that the GB% is better in 2018 and 2019 than it was in 2017. Many of these peripherals indicate Arrieta's drop-off will stop and he'll continue down the same statistical path as 2017. And the only bad number there is the low amount of innings, 168 1/3, and one would like to see the FIP be a bit better (4.16). But outside of that, he was a 3.53 ERA, 1.21 WHIP pitcher who can still strike guys out and has decent control and teams will take pitchers like that all day long.

 

So when looking at the whole picture, maybe Stearns sees a situation where other teams might be a big hesitant and Arrieta might be limited to signing a three year deal, and if that's the case, Stearns might want to make sure he is in the mix if Arrieta falls into the 3 years, 65-70 million area.

 

Personally, I think he'll get paid like a three WAR player and gets one year too many. I'm like the majority and think a contract in the 4 year, 108 million dollar range is probably the end result.

 

Stearns probably just doing the due diligence here. I'd be pretty surprised if Arrieta is wearing a Brewer's uniform next season.

[ThisIsMyCrew]

I would much rather explore Jose Urena’s availablity. Maybe pair him with a contract to help with prospects. 26 and controllable til 2022. Potential is just being grasped by him last year.

[jerichoholicninja]

Arrieta is the opposite of young controllable talent.

 

He is clearly on the downside of his run from two years ago. I have a feeling the Brewers are only in the conversation to pump up his price.

 

I don't know if it's only to pump up his price, but yes I agree there's probably a lot more smoke than fire. Stearns himself reiterated the other day that they're in the market for starters, but as far as specific names like Arrieta and Lynn, he doesn't know where people are getting that from.

 

It just comes with the territory of what you're in the market for. Was there any major starter at the trade deadline that we WEREN'T linked to? Quintana yes, Gray yes, Verlander yes. Can't remember us being linked to Darvish, but if he had more control and wasn't just a rental, we probably would have been.

 

So I'm not at all surprised at this point to see us linked to Arrieta and Lynn. Maybe you find a soft spot in the market and land a big starter for what you feel is a bargain price. Or more likely you drive up the market for your competitors. Absolutely no harm in kicking the tires on anything.

 

Trying to drive up Arrieta's price without intending to sign him only hurts themselves as it will drive up the price of every other starting pitcher. And Stearns seems dead set on signing a starter.

[Warning Track Power]

My biggest issue with Jake Arrieta is why the Cubs, who at this moment have a rotation of Lester-Hendricks-Quintana-?-?, are supposedly taking a pass at re-signing Arrieta. While this could be Cubs gaming the system and letting Arrieta getting the best offer on the market before matching it, it doesn't feel that way. Their apparent lack of interest in bringing Arrieta back is concerning.

[TURBO]

My biggest issue with Jake Arrieta is why the Cubs, who at this moment have a rotation of Lester-Hendricks-Quintana-?-?, are supposedly taking a pass at re-signing Arrieta... Their apparent lack of interest in bringing Arrieta back is concerning.

 

Right, and hopefully Stearns is wise enough to think the same exact thing.

[JohnBriggs12]

My biggest issue with Jake Arrieta is why the Cubs, who at this moment have a rotation of Lester-Hendricks-Quintana-?-?, are supposedly taking a pass at re-signing Arrieta. While this could be Cubs gaming the system and letting Arrieta getting the best offer on the market before matching it, it doesn't feel that way. Their apparent lack of interest in bringing Arrieta back is concerning.

 

Cubs aren't interested because of the Lester and Heyward contracts already on their books, and they plan to go after Harper when he becomes available. Then there is the huge money it will take to keep Rizzo and Bryant in a few years.

[sheetskout]

My biggest issue with Jake Arrieta is why the Cubs, who at this moment have a rotation of Lester-Hendricks-Quintana-?-?, are supposedly taking a pass at re-signing Arrieta. While this could be Cubs gaming the system and letting Arrieta getting the best offer on the market before matching it, it doesn't feel that way. Their apparent lack of interest in bringing Arrieta back is concerning.

 

Cubs aren't interested because of the Lester and Heyward contracts already on their books, and they plan to go after Harper when he becomes available. Then there is the huge money it will take to keep Rizzo and Bryant in a few years.

 

And Shohei Otani. http://www.chicagotribune.com/sports/baseball/cubs/ct-spt-cubs-shohei-ohtani-20171129-story.html

[KeithStone53151]

My biggest issue with Jake Arrieta is why the Cubs, who at this moment have a rotation of Lester-Hendricks-Quintana-?-?, are supposedly taking a pass at re-signing Arrieta. While this could be Cubs gaming the system and letting Arrieta getting the best offer on the market before matching it, it doesn't feel that way. Their apparent lack of interest in bringing Arrieta back is concerning.

 

Cubs aren't interested because of the Lester and Heyward contracts already on their books, and they plan to go after Harper when he becomes available. Then there is the huge money it will take to keep Rizzo and Bryant in a few years.

 

It certainly appears the Cubs are approaching some difficult decisions. No farm whatsoever, young talented players approaching arbitration, and significant holes in their roster. These types of things are why it's critical not to overextend yourself and maintain flexibility. They pretty much need to perfectly allocate their surplus value at the mlb level and payroll dollars to extend their window a few more years. It can be done, but there's very little room for error. If they make one more big mistake on a free agent or trade away a Happ/Baez/Schwarber for a guy that doesn't work out, that could mean serious trouble for the cubbies.

[NievesNoNO]

Mostly the Cubs aren't interested in investing 125-150 million in an average pitcher. Smart no matter who you are.

[bill hAll Star]

Mostly the Cubs aren't interested in investing 125-150 million in an average pitcher. Smart no matter who you are.

 

They've got one on their roster right now that was due over $100 million going into the 2017 season.

[reillymcshane]

Mostly the Cubs aren't interested in investing 125-150 million in an average pitcher. Smart no matter who you are.

 

They've got one on their roster right now that was due over $100 million going into the 2017 season.

Exactly. And they don't want a second one. Putting $50M into a pair of aging players isn't the best strategy.

[bill hAll Star]

Mostly the Cubs aren't interested in investing 125-150 million in an average pitcher. Smart no matter who you are.

 

They've got one on their roster right now that was due over $100 million going into the 2017 season.

Exactly. And they don't want a second one. Putting $50M into a pair of aging players isn't the best strategy.

 

They might be saving up for Harper or Keuchel. Otherwise, something like this might be their best chance. They've got a 4 year window right now. Basically all of their offensive core will be a free agent after 2021 and some of them like Rizzo, you're not sure that you even want to retain.

 

I'm not sure it's Arrieta, but I'd imagine they spend big on pitching this year or next. The only other thing I can think that they're doing is they think signing 2 middle-priced pitchers is better since their pitching depth is thin.

 

Their payroll is projected at $130 million right now. They have to worry about rising arbitration costs over the next few years, but they've boxed themselves into this window. They'll spend big, IMO. The only other way I see them going forward is a major trade overhaul.

[KeithStone53151]

They've got one on their roster right now that was due over $100 million going into the 2017 season.

Exactly. And they don't want a second one. Putting $50M into a pair of aging players isn't the best strategy.

 

They might be saving up for Harper or Keuchel. Otherwise, something like this might be their best chance. They've got a 4 year window right now. Basically all of their offensive core will be a free agent after 2021 and some of them like Rizzo, you're not sure that you even want to retain.

 

I'm not sure it's Arrieta, but I'd imagine they spend big on pitching this year or next. The only other thing I can think that they're doing is they think signing 2 middle-priced pitchers is better since their pitching depth is thin.

 

Their payroll is projected at $130 million right now. They have to worry about rising arbitration costs over the next few years, but they've boxed themselves into this window. They'll spend big, IMO. The only other way I see them going forward is a major trade overhaul.

 

The major trade overhaul probably makes the most sense. But I noted before, they'll have to pretty much operate flawlessly on the trade front to get proper value for a couple young major leaguers that they can turn into a quality arm or two. Your 4 year window is very generous in my opinion, I think we all hope I'm right on that aspect

[bill hAll Star]

The major trade overhaul probably makes the most sense. But I noted before, they'll have to pretty much operate flawlessly on the trade front to get proper value for a couple young major leaguers that they can turn into a quality arm or two. Your 4 year window is very generous in my opinion, I think we all hope I'm right on that aspect

 

If Quintana does not recover a bit or Lester does not, you could be right.

 

I think you're severely underrating Contreras, Baez, Rizzo, Happ, Bryant, Almora, Schwarber, Russell. Not all of them are MVP candidates, but that's a very very good team all smack dab in the middle of their primes right now.

 

They may not be the top World Series contender due to lack of ace pitching at this point, but I'd put them as the division favorite for each of the next 4 years, pending the Brewers and maybe Cards roster makeup going forward. Obviously plenty can change halfway through that span of time.

 

They can just overpay for pitching. It'll still be an Achilles heel, but it'll be good enough to get them to the playoffs each year.

[KeithStone53151]

The major trade overhaul probably makes the most sense. But I noted before, they'll have to pretty much operate flawlessly on the trade front to get proper value for a couple young major leaguers that they can turn into a quality arm or two. Your 4 year window is very generous in my opinion, I think we all hope I'm right on that aspect

 

If Quintana does not recover a bit or Lester does not, you could be right.

 

I think you're severely underrating Contreras, Baez, Rizzo, Happ, Bryant, Almora, Schwarber, Russell. Not all of them are MVP candidates, but that's a very very good team all smack dab in the middle of their primes right now.

 

They may not be the top World Series contender due to lack of ace pitching at this point, but I'd put them as the division favorite for each of the next 4 years, pending the Brewers and maybe Cards roster makeup going forward. Obviously plenty can change halfway through that span of time.

 

They can just overpay for pitching. It'll still be an Achilles heel, but it'll be good enough to get them to the playoffs each year.

 

We've seen this before, a team full of star players without enough good pitching. I feel like this club is following a very similar track to the 2008-2012 brewers. Star players across the board, but not enough pitching. They even have 2 stars that shine brighter than all the rest. Having all those great position players is all well and good, but pitching wins championships. If Lester and Quintana don't return to at least mid-rotation form...it doesn't really matter who else they get, this team won't make the playoffs even next year. But even with decent performances from those guys, they need at least one more good pitcher to be considered a division favorite.

[bill hAll Star]

The major trade overhaul probably makes the most sense. But I noted before, they'll have to pretty much operate flawlessly on the trade front to get proper value for a couple young major leaguers that they can turn into a quality arm or two. Your 4 year window is very generous in my opinion, I think we all hope I'm right on that aspect

 

If Quintana does not recover a bit or Lester does not, you could be right.

 

I think you're severely underrating Contreras, Baez, Rizzo, Happ, Bryant, Almora, Schwarber, Russell. Not all of them are MVP candidates, but that's a very very good team all smack dab in the middle of their primes right now.

 

They may not be the top World Series contender due to lack of ace pitching at this point, but I'd put them as the division favorite for each of the next 4 years, pending the Brewers and maybe Cards roster makeup going forward. Obviously plenty can change halfway through that span of time.

 

They can just overpay for pitching. It'll still be an Achilles heel, but it'll be good enough to get them to the playoffs each year.

 

We've seen this before, a team full of star players without enough good pitching. I feel like this club is following a very similar track to the 2008-2012 brewers. Star players across the board, but not enough pitching. They even have 2 stars that shine brighter than all the rest. Having all those great position players is all well and good, but pitching wins championships. If Lester and Quintana don't return to at least mid-rotation form...it doesn't really matter who else they get, this team won't make the playoffs even next year. But even with decent performances from those guys, they need at least one more good pitcher to be considered a division favorite.

 

The 2011 Brewers started Yuni Betancourt at SS for most of the year and Casey McGehee in probably his worst career season at 3B. Lucroy wasn't ready yet. That was their best season in that window.

 

They unloaded all of their assets for future years into 1-2 year rentals of Greinke and Marcum on the back end and got one good year of pitching that got them to the NLCS.

 

The Brewers also didn't have the defense the Cubs do.

 

The Cubs can afford to overpay either a middle-of-the-rotation pitcher every year or an overpaid guy like Arrieta or Darvish every other year.

 

They do have depth issues if some injuries hit but their core group of starters is better than what the Brewers had and they have money to overspend on pitching.

[JohnBriggs12]

The major trade overhaul probably makes the most sense. But I noted before, they'll have to pretty much operate flawlessly on the trade front to get proper value for a couple young major leaguers that they can turn into a quality arm or two. Your 4 year window is very generous in my opinion, I think we all hope I'm right on that aspect

 

If Quintana does not recover a bit or Lester does not, you could be right.

 

I think you're severely underrating Contreras, Baez, Rizzo, Happ, Bryant, Almora, Schwarber, Russell. Not all of them are MVP candidates, but that's a very very good team all smack dab in the middle of their primes right now.

 

They may not be the top World Series contender due to lack of ace pitching at this point, but I'd put them as the division favorite for each of the next 4 years, pending the Brewers and maybe Cards roster makeup going forward. Obviously plenty can change halfway through that span of time.

 

 

They can just overpay for pitching. It'll still be an Achilles heel, but it'll be good enough to get them to the playoffs each year.

 

What does Quintana have to recover from? He posted the best FIP among their starters last year of 3.25 and I'd argue put the final nail in the Brewers coffin with his performance on the next to last Sunday of the season. They'll land a couple of starters either via trade or free agency and are the team to beat.

 

The Cubs pockets are deep but they don't have an unlimited budget. They are still in the midst of putting a lot of money in and around Wrigley. Eventually that will add to their revenue stream but not for a few more years.

[bill hAll Star]

The major trade overhaul probably makes the most sense. But I noted before, they'll have to pretty much operate flawlessly on the trade front to get proper value for a couple young major leaguers that they can turn into a quality arm or two. Your 4 year window is very generous in my opinion, I think we all hope I'm right on that aspect

 

If Quintana does not recover a bit or Lester does not, you could be right.

 

I think you're severely underrating Contreras, Baez, Rizzo, Happ, Bryant, Almora, Schwarber, Russell. Not all of them are MVP candidates, but that's a very very good team all smack dab in the middle of their primes right now.

 

They may not be the top World Series contender due to lack of ace pitching at this point, but I'd put them as the division favorite for each of the next 4 years, pending the Brewers and maybe Cards roster makeup going forward. Obviously plenty can change halfway through that span of time.

 

 

They can just overpay for pitching. It'll still be an Achilles heel, but it'll be good enough to get them to the playoffs each year.

 

What does Quintana have to recover from? He posted the best FIP among their starters last year of 3.25 and I'd argue put the final nail in the Brewers coffin with his performance on the next to last Sunday of the season. They'll land a couple of starters either via trade or free agency and are the team to beat.

 

The Cubs pockets are deep but they don't have an unlimited budget. They are still in the midst of putting a lot of money in and around Wrigley. Eventually that will add to their revenue stream but not for a few more years.

 

His season on the whole was uninspiring but that’s beside the point. I would expect him to be closer to career norms next year.

 

You are right, though. FIP wasn’t much worse than normal.

[KeithStone53151]

 

If this is true, the hardest of all passes. He must be looking for a 7 or 8 year deal, Boras must be nuts.

[reillymcshane]

 

If this is true, the hardest of all passes. He must be looking for a 7 or 8 year deal, Boras must be nuts.

That's Boros being Boros. Of course he's pumping up his guy. That's his job - and he's good at it. He can ask for whatever he wants - it doesn't mean anyone will give him a deal that long and at those dollars.

[JosephC]

The Boras angle is interesting. He points out how the Tigers went to the playoffs every year from 2011 to 2014 and during that run Verlander's yearly ERA went from 2.40, 2.64, 3.46 to 4.54 (yearly WHIP went from 0.92 to 1.06 to 1.32 to 1.40). That last season with the 4.54 ERA was his age 31 season. Boras attributed all of that decline to Verlander having to pitch in the playoffs so many consecutive years (he did have 76 2/3 post-season innings during those four years). Boras is saying Arrieta is in the exact same situation. He just finished his age 31 season. In the last three years he has pitched 52 2/3 post-season innings. The entire decline has to do with too many post-season innings and he will bounce back just as Verlander has. Over the last three years Arrieta is a 2.71 ERA, 1.04 WHIP pitcher and that's what you are getting if you buy his services.

 

I'm not buying it but Boras only has to pull out the hot name right now which is Verlander and only convince one owner that this is what he is going to get if he invests in Arrieta.