Jake Arrieta

[jerichoholicninja]

No offense to you at all Trwi, because I see lots here that do the same all the time, but are there ever any free agents(other than minor low priced guys), that the Brewers could sign, that no one would hate?? I mean, they HAVE to add payroll anyway, signing a guy like Lynn or Arrieta doesn't cost them prospects, and most of all, why does it matter?? It's not our $$?? That's the thing I always get a kick out of when I read various message boards for state teams(packers, brewers, bucks), no one ever wants the teams to sign high priced free agents, because it's like they are offended, that someone would spend THEIR $$ like that. I always get a kick out of that.

This is an interesting observation. I see this as well and its the opposite for the Packers. Fans of the Packers scream about Ted Thompson never signing FAs and fans of the Brewers scream when Melvin/Attanasio actually signed FAs. It's weird to see fans of both teams respond so differently to these FA signings.

 

Because NFL contracts are meaningless. Most players can be cut for little to no money after the first year or two. There is very little risk to signing an NFL free agent.

 

All money is guaranteed in an MLB contract. When you sign that free agent, you're paying him every penny of it no matter how bad he is or if you release him. The team takes on all the risk and the player takes on virtually none.

[brewcrewdue80]

Theres big time fear in this because if hes aging, 2017 version Arrieta who only worsens. Now what? In two years that version is being waived still owed over 50million? Or you Matt Garza him and play him because youre invested 50+ million for him to pitch for you, only instead of rebuild this is going on during being competitive?

 

I hope its the drive up the price interest and not really interested.

[Brewcrewin07]

No offense to you at all Trwi, because I see lots here that do the same all the time, but are there ever any free agents(other than minor low priced guys), that the Brewers could sign, that no one would hate?? I mean, they HAVE to add payroll anyway, signing a guy like Lynn or Arrieta doesn't cost them prospects, and most of all, why does it matter?? It's not our $$?? That's the thing I always get a kick out of when I read various message boards for state teams(packers, brewers, bucks), no one ever wants the teams to sign high priced free agents, because it's like they are offended, that someone would spend THEIR $$ like that. I always get a kick out of that.

This is an interesting observation. I see this as well and its the opposite for the Packers. Fans of the Packers scream about Ted Thompson never signing FAs and fans of the Brewers scream when Melvin/Attanasio actually signed FAs. It's weird to see fans of both teams respond so differently to these FA signings.

 

Because NFL contracts are meaningless. Most players can be cut for little to no money after the first year or two. There is very little risk to signing an NFL free agent.

 

All money is guaranteed in an MLB contract. When you sign that free agent, you're paying him every penny of it no matter how bad he is or if you release him. The team takes on all the risk and the player takes on virtually none.

 

Okay but this is my point, why do fans care so much about who the Brewers sign...?? I mean, if they sign Arrieta or Lynn, what's the big deal?? It's Antanassio's money, not ours. Plus, they could actually be helpful.

[mrn1ceguy]

 

Those salaries (Braun's will a bit right now) did not hinder us from anything. Garza's salary rotted while the team rebuilt.

 

It's a differing opinion of the window. For me, our strength is probably a good movement of minor league players for the next decade. Not the Astros or Cubs; think Cardinals. We always will have a good player waiting. I'm OK spending now to be an 87-92 win team for several years.

 

I just don't think the elite elite talent is there. What's going to change in 2 years? We'll likely have a better version of Brinson/Arcia/maybe Santana/Phillips but we don't know if Shaw/Knebel/Thames even Braun will repeat this year's performance?

 

Like I said, if we had our version or Danny Salazar, Corey Kluber, and Carlos Carrasco all in AA right now, by all means, wait 2 years. We don't.

 

For me, this team has a 10-15 player base that will make it easy to win 80 games for the next decade (I'm guessing and projecting the minors system after 5 years from now, but we have great depth right now). After that, we need to find the other few elite players to get to the playoffs several times. They aren't waiting in our system other than maybe Brinson or Hader.

 

I don't see a reason to wait. Because if we sign Arrieta now, the contract will be nearly over when you are "ready." So then we can just sign another big dollar player.

 

Stearns would be an absolute magician and would win GM of the decade if he turned the current core into a perennial 90+ win team without dealing the farm or some big signings.

 

I just don't understand what you want to "wait and see" on. If Brinson, Phillips, etc. are not what we thought, then we'll hit 2020 with 2 years left on Arrieta's deal needing to rebuild. If those guys are all really that good, then Arrieta is an overpaid, yet good MLB pitcher helping us try to win a championship. There will still be plenty of time to sign more overpriced free agents when Braun's deal ends and Arrieta's does.

 

The reason to wait is basically the number of starting pitcher candidates their will likely be for 2019. As the roster currently stands, we will have to decide between Nelson, Anderson, Davies, Woodruff, Hader, Burnes, Ortiz and Fredy Peralta with fringe players like Suter, Guerra, Jungmann, Wilkerson, Bubba Derby and Jon Perrin available. Add in the wave of AA pitchers like Ponce and Yamamoto who could breakout early and we have a lot of pitching talent coming up in 2019/2020. That is a lot of people to sort through with a realistic chance five of those players will be better than year 2 version of whichever FA starter we get (Arrieta likely included, but probably the best of the bunch).

 

My preference is to sign someone who would be a 1 year deal or maybe a 2 year deal where we could cut/trade them in 2019 based on their performance.

[superfly]

I just hate that this is even being discussed. I don't like him personally and I think he is a fall off candidate. We'll be stuck exactly where Brewers free agent signings always are. Underperforming their contract.

 

This is the case with basically every free agent, ever. Yes, Arrieta presents slightly more risk as a pitcher and as one with declining velocity...but who are we saving the money for? If not Arrieta this year, we'll be thinking about signing some other 3.75 FIP/ERA guy for $100 million next year, pushing the contract burden a year further down the road.

 

Except that by next year, in theory we'll have Anderson, Davies, Nelson, Hader, Woodruff, and Burnes as established guys in the rotation with Ortiz and Peralta waiting in the wings. None of those guys will be expensive, and they can all be every bit as successful as Arrieta will be going forward. If everything breaks right, we'll have to figure out which guy or guys to trade to clear space. If one or two guys fail, well I have eight names listed and five rotation spots. And every one of the guys I listed has had significant success in the upper levels of the minors, and therefore they aren't as likely to fail. We really shouldn't be targeting anyone on more than a 2 year deal with the pitching we have on the way.

 

I think alot of folks are fooling themselves thinking Hader is definitely moving to the rotation. He's way more valuable doing just what he did for us at this point than creating another mediocre starter. Come the second half of the year if his results are still pressing the issue then MAYBE consider it.

 

Hard to envison a AA guy being called an "established" rotation guy at this point too ain't it? The more good bodies the better IMO, Arrieta isn't the same type of player these bums like Suppan were

[KeithStone53151]

This is an interesting observation. I see this as well and its the opposite for the Packers. Fans of the Packers scream about Ted Thompson never signing FAs and fans of the Brewers scream when Melvin/Attanasio actually signed FAs. It's weird to see fans of both teams respond so differently to these FA signings.

 

Because NFL contracts are meaningless. Most players can be cut for little to no money after the first year or two. There is very little risk to signing an NFL free agent.

 

All money is guaranteed in an MLB contract. When you sign that free agent, you're paying him every penny of it no matter how bad he is or if you release him. The team takes on all the risk and the player takes on virtually none.

 

Okay but this is my point, why do fans care so much about who the Brewers sign...?? I mean, if they sign Arrieta or Lynn, what's the big deal?? It's Antanassio's money, not ours. Plus, they could actually be helpful.

 

Seriously, you need someone to spell this out to you? The Brewers are going to spend a finite amount of money per year on payroll, call it X. Because while Mark Attanasio clearly wants to win, he is a business man first and isn't going to spend into oblivion and lose a ton of money in the process. We all collectively want the Brewers to spend that money in the most efficient way possible to maximize our chances of winning. We have all sorts of different ideas on how to do that, but we all want the same thing. You on the other hand, are so off base that you can't even grasp that we have X amount to spend on players...and then you talk down to the rest of us for actually understanding a concept so simple.

[KeithStone53151]

This is the case with basically every free agent, ever. Yes, Arrieta presents slightly more risk as a pitcher and as one with declining velocity...but who are we saving the money for? If not Arrieta this year, we'll be thinking about signing some other 3.75 FIP/ERA guy for $100 million next year, pushing the contract burden a year further down the road.

 

Except that by next year, in theory we'll have Anderson, Davies, Nelson, Hader, Woodruff, and Burnes as established guys in the rotation with Ortiz and Peralta waiting in the wings. None of those guys will be expensive, and they can all be every bit as successful as Arrieta will be going forward. If everything breaks right, we'll have to figure out which guy or guys to trade to clear space. If one or two guys fail, well I have eight names listed and five rotation spots. And every one of the guys I listed has had significant success in the upper levels of the minors, and therefore they aren't as likely to fail. We really shouldn't be targeting anyone on more than a 2 year deal with the pitching we have on the way.

 

I think alot of folks are fooling themselves thinking Hader is definitely moving to the rotation. He's way more valuable doing just what he did for us at this point than creating another mediocre starter. Come the second half of the year if his results are still pressing the issue then MAYBE consider it.

 

Hard to envison a AA guy being called an "established" rotation guy at this point too ain't it? The more good bodies the better IMO, Arrieta isn't the same type of player these bums like Suppan were

 

That's fair on Burnes, I did in fairness say "in theory" though. I think what we all hope to happen is Burnes is successful the first half of 2018 and forces his way into the rotation.

 

And with Hader, he is absolutely without question more valuable if he fulfills his potential in the starting rotation than doing what he did last year. It's not even up for debate. TOR SP > RP, even the very best RP. If he ends up being much more hittable as a starter, if control is a serious issue, if fatigure becomes an issue, I'm sure the Brewers will make a sound decision at some point to move him back to the bullpen. That fallback isn't going anywhere. You are right that if he's a middling starter posting a low 4s ERA, then we are better off putting him in the bullpen where he can post low 2s or better and be our version of Andrew Miller. If you start him in the bullpen, you can't easily bring him into the rotation and expect him to eat innings. It's much easier to go from the rotation to the bullpen. And a rotation arm is of greater need to start the season than halfway through, when Burnes/Nelson in theory will be ready to contribute.

[Austin Tatious]

Fans should care what free agents the team signs because if the team selects the wrong guy, that contract becomes an albatross for the organization and hampers the team from making other moves because of loss of financial flexibility.

[MrTPlush]

Is it possible to front load the contract? Instead of a 4 year $24 mil per year, do something like a $30,28. 20, 18? Might make him more palatable towards the end of the contract and allow more flexibility and make him more tradable. If we have that much available cash this year, we should front load it as much as possible.

 

Financially front loading is a poor choice for quite a few reasons...simply put.

 

For whom?

For the team financially front loading can be bad but for the player financially front loading a contract is actually better due to time value of money.

 

If you expect to have a higher team salary in the future front loading a contract might be a better idea for a team. For example if the Brewers expect to have a higher team salary in 2020 than they do now front loading a contract like Arrieta would be a wise move as it will save you space on that salary then.

 

Simply put your statement is rather vague.

 

The team. That is why you don't really see it done in baseball. Someone mentioned Heyward(and a few others) and he doesn't really make sense. His is frontloaded because of the opt out and Heyward used it to his leverage. The situtation we are talking about here is the Brewers voluntarily looking to front load a contract.

 

I am not arguing it could help a baseball team competively, but is extra payroll space come 2020 worth the cost? It is easy for fans to say frontload it without knowing the hidden costs. Every time I mention this when frontloading comes up I think people forget a baseball team is a business looking to make money and increase their value. The order you pay the player a contract makes a gigantic difference.

[JohnBriggs12]

Is it possible to front load the contract? Instead of a 4 year $24 mil per year, do something like a $30,28. 20, 18? Might make him more palatable towards the end of the contract and allow more flexibility and make him more tradable. If we have that much available cash this year, we should front load it as much as possible.

 

Financially front loading is a poor choice for quite a few reasons...simply put.

 

Really? Do you think the Cubs regret their "over the top" free agent signings (Lester/Zobrist/Heyward) being much cheaper now as they are on the decline?

 

Absolutely the Cubs regret the contract they gave to Heyward who hasn't come close to living up to it from day 1. Being stuck with it is a big reason the Cubs aren't going harder after keeping Arrieta. Yes, they have deep pockets, but they are spending a lot upgrading the park and have monster deals down the road in not too distant future to do just to keep Bryant and Rizzo much less their entire core. Cubs do have a budget, albeit one that likely double the Brewers.

[JohnBriggs12]

Verlander is signed through his age 36 season at $28 million per year. From age 32 through 36 he'll earn a total of $140 million. My guess is the Brewer interest in Arrieta is partially based on the thought he's a lot closer to Verlander than Matt Garza. Arrieta had flashes of greatness in 2017, but there were many times to me at least, he looked very hittable. If they do sign him, it'll probably be for around 5 years at $23 million per year with a 6th year option. If he does well enough, the Brewers could be in position to recoup some of that money if they deal him in say 3 years. Still a ton of risk is involved.

[bill hAll Star]

The team. That is why you don't really see it done in baseball. Someone mentioned Heyward(and a few others) and he doesn't really make sense. His is frontloaded because of the opt out and Heyward used it to his leverage. The situtation we are talking about here is the Brewers voluntarily looking to front load a contract.

 

I am not arguing it could help a baseball team competively, but is extra payroll space come 2020 worth the cost? It is easy for fans to say frontload it without knowing the hidden costs. Every time I mention this when frontloading comes up I think people forget a baseball team is a business looking to make money and increase their value. The order you pay the player a contract makes a gigantic difference.

 

So what's wrong with offering Arrieta $30/$25/$25/20 with an opt-out after 2 years? Seems like that's best for all parties.

 

I get that Mark may have other business priorities, but if he's going Y2Y and Arrieta and a reliever are the signings this year, he may like this.

[MrTPlush]

The team. That is why you don't really see it done in baseball. Someone mentioned Heyward(and a few others) and he doesn't really make sense. His is frontloaded because of the opt out and Heyward used it to his leverage. The situtation we are talking about here is the Brewers voluntarily looking to front load a contract.

 

I am not arguing it could help a baseball team competively, but is extra payroll space come 2020 worth the cost? It is easy for fans to say frontload it without knowing the hidden costs. Every time I mention this when frontloading comes up I think people forget a baseball team is a business looking to make money and increase their value. The order you pay the player a contract makes a gigantic difference.

 

So what's wrong with offering Arrieta $30/$25/$25/20 with an opt-out after 2 years? Seems like that's best for all parties.

 

I get that Mark may have other business priorities, but if he's going Y2Y and Arrieta and a reliever are the signings this year, he may like this.

 

That is so minimal. Are we really going to be crunching for $5mil in 4 years? I think the frontloading someone was suggesting was a lot more major than that.

[bill hAll Star]

The team. That is why you don't really see it done in baseball. Someone mentioned Heyward(and a few others) and he doesn't really make sense. His is frontloaded because of the opt out and Heyward used it to his leverage. The situtation we are talking about here is the Brewers voluntarily looking to front load a contract.

 

I am not arguing it could help a baseball team competively, but is extra payroll space come 2020 worth the cost? It is easy for fans to say frontload it without knowing the hidden costs. Every time I mention this when frontloading comes up I think people forget a baseball team is a business looking to make money and increase their value. The order you pay the player a contract makes a gigantic difference.

 

So what's wrong with offering Arrieta $30/$25/$25/20 with an opt-out after 2 years? Seems like that's best for all parties.

 

I get that Mark may have other business priorities, but if he's going Y2Y and Arrieta and a reliever are the signings this year, he may like this.

 

That is so minimal. Are we really going to be crunching for $5mil in 4 years? I think the frontloading someone was suggesting was a lot more major than that.

 

Yes, $5 million is a solid reliever or highly paid utility man. This is how you get creative to overpay a player and not have it affect you much if the contract goes south. I'd go 30/30/20/20 if I could and have an opt-out halfway. If he's that good, he was worth the $30 and he is gone in his mid 30s.

 

The Heyward signing was bad and some could argue he didn't help them win the World Series at all, but their other frontloaded guys did help win the World Series and are declining in skill as expected. It's nice for the Cubs now that they at least can squeeze another player or two in with the frontloaded risks over the next few years.

[pacopete4]

Why is Arrieta going to decline his contract after two seasons? He most likely will suck in 2 seasons and will love to get paid $20M to go out ever five days like Garza did last season. Like Nancy Reagan says; "Just say no" to overpriced and declining pitchers.

[reillymcshane]

Front loading a deal is not necessarily always a poor decision. A lot comes down to the details. The big thing for the player is the actual value of the contract. What I mean by that is the details of the payout.

 

A three year deal, $60M contract paid out in equal terms ($20M annually) is worth more money than a contract that pays $10M, $20M, $30M. That's because the player gets $10M two years earlier - and thus now has money to invest and make more money.

 

Thus, the three year, $60M contract, paid out equally over three years, might be more equal if the payout was something like $10M, $20M, $33M. That's a 3-year, $63M deal, technically worth 'more' money than the other deal - but in reality, the same. BTW, I'm just guessing at what the actual equal value is by tacking on the extra $3M to the last year. I really don't know how that kind of stuff is calculated.

 

That is one reason why clubs like contracts to be backloaded. The more money pushed into the future, the more money they have at this time to use on their product (or to invest or whatever).

 

All that said, it doesn't mean you can't front load a contract for good reason. Let's take Arrietta as an example. The team could offer him the following (again, just an example):

 

Option 1: 4-years, $100M, with annual payouts of $25M. Simple enough.

 

Option 2: 4-year, $95M, with annual payouts of $30M, $25M, $20M and $20M.

 

Option two has less total 'add 'em' value - but because he's getting more money up front, it would allow him to generate more revenue earlier (again, I don't know which would be more valuable - the numbers are just there to get the point across).

 

The value to the player aside, the front loaded option might appeal to the Brewers due to the circumstances of the organization's financials. They may prefer spending more money now on a guy like Arrieta because they know that costs for other players will go up. Essentially, it comes down to a 'we have the salary room now, so let's spend it now, and not overburden our salary structure down the road'.

[bill hAll Star]

Why is Arrieta going to decline his contract after two seasons? He most likely will suck in 2 seasons and will love to get paid $20M to go out ever five days like Garza did last season. Like Nancy Reagan says; "Just say no" to overpriced and declining pitchers.

 

A lot of pitchers have opted out of their deals early. If he gets more money up front, he could easily leave for one more big deal and then completely fall in the tank on that one.

[pacopete4]

Why is Arrieta going to decline his contract after two seasons? He most likely will suck in 2 seasons and will love to get paid $20M to go out ever five days like Garza did last season. Like Nancy Reagan says; "Just say no" to overpriced and declining pitchers.

 

A lot of pitchers have opted out of their deals early. If he gets more money up front, he could easily leave for one more big deal and then completely fall in the tank on that one.

 

Easily? Just don't see Arrieta at the age of 34-35, pitching well enough to earn more than $20M per season after that. He would love to be guaranteed that money and more than likely love to have the Brewers pay him that while he stinks up the joint later in his career. Playing with fire.

[KeithStone53151]

Why is Arrieta going to decline his contract after two seasons? He most likely will suck in 2 seasons and will love to get paid $20M to go out ever five days like Garza did last season. Like Nancy Reagan says; "Just say no" to overpriced and declining pitchers.

 

A lot of pitchers have opted out of their deals early. If he gets more money up front, he could easily leave for one more big deal and then completely fall in the tank on that one.

 

Easily? Just don't see Arrieta at the age of 34-35, pitching well enough to earn more than $20M per season after that. He would love to be guaranteed that money and more than likely love to have the Brewers pay him that while he stinks up the joint later in his career. Playing with fire.

 

It would be more accurate to say there's a chance that Arrieta posts a couple seasons in the low 3s ERA and thinks the market is willing to pay more than 2/40 to him at age 34. I personally think it's very unlikely. Stearns basically shot down these rumors yesterday, look for the tweet from Haudricourt.

[brewers888]

I really hope that this team and most notably the owner has learned his lesson in regards to signing free agent pitchers to long term deals. Signing Arrieta, Lynn, or Cobb would be incredibly stupid. We have plenty of good young pitching in Milwaukee or close to the majors. Between Hader, Woodruff, Burnes, Freddy Peralta, Ortiz and others we can pretty much have a young cheap rotation set by 2019. Keep letting Stearns do his job and stay away from free agency for starting pitchers.

 

Keep building like we have and when the time is right go and make a move for a last piece like the Astros did with Verlander. Arrieta is fading away and its exactly why the scrubs have no interest in bringing him back. Stearns has done a great job getting us to this point so let him keep building this organization towards championship contention.

[bill hAll Star]

Why is Arrieta going to decline his contract after two seasons? He most likely will suck in 2 seasons and will love to get paid $20M to go out ever five days like Garza did last season. Like Nancy Reagan says; "Just say no" to overpriced and declining pitchers.

 

A lot of pitchers have opted out of their deals early. If he gets more money up front, he could easily leave for one more big deal and then completely fall in the tank on that one.

 

Easily? Just don't see Arrieta at the age of 34-35, pitching well enough to earn more than $20M per season after that. He would love to be guaranteed that money and more than likely love to have the Brewers pay him that while he stinks up the joint later in his career. Playing with fire.

 

Fair...for some reason I thought Greinke was a bit older as a comparison.

[TURBO]

I really hope that this team and most notably the owner has learned his lesson in regards to signing free agent pitchers to long term deals. Signing Arrieta, Lynn, or Cobb would be incredibly stupid. We have plenty of good young pitching in Milwaukee or close to the majors. Between Hader, Woodruff, Burnes, Freddy Peralta, Ortiz and others we can pretty much have a young cheap rotation set by 2019. Keep letting Stearns do his job and stay away from free agency for starting pitchers.

 

Keep building like we have and when the time is right go and make a move for a last piece like the Astros did with Verlander. Arrieta is fading away and its exactly why the scrubs have no interest in bringing him back. Stearns has done a great job getting us to this point so let him keep building this organization towards championship contention.

 

I have to say I agree with this philosophy, but adding one FA starting pitcher on a short deal, even at 20 million per season will not handcuff our future. I don't want Arrieta or Cobb, and I want nothing to do with multiple minor league guys for Archer. The guys available don't do anything for me. Stay the course...

[MrTPlush]

(again, just an example):

 

Option 1: 4-years, $100M, with annual payouts of $25M. Simple enough.

 

Option 2: 4-year, $95M, with annual payouts of $30M, $25M, $20M and $20M.

 

Option two has less total 'add 'em' value - but because he's getting more money up front, it would allow him to generate more revenue earlier (again, I don't know which would be more valuable - the numbers are just there to get the point across).

 

Option 2 has the higher present value by about $3mil by my personal calculations. That number could vary depending on the return rate you decide the player gets by investing.

[MrTPlush]

Yes, $5 million is a solid reliever or highly paid utility man.

 

Right...but that guy actually will cost to more like $8mil possibly more depending on the factors involved due to frontloading the big contract. I really doubt we are so maxed out on payroll in 2020-2021 where we are trying to scrap together $5mil

[wildcat2237]

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2017/11/nl-central-notes-brewers-brinson-cardinals-martinez.html

 

According to Jon Paul Morosi the Brewers are interested in Arrieta.

 

This really really scares me.