Jake Arrieta

[KCBrewerfan34]

O'Dowd was on the radio (1510) this morning and he said he didn't see the Brewers as a player for Arrietta because of the ask. He did say he saw Cobb as a really good fit for us. Kind of getting down to the nitty gritty. Pitchers need 3-4 weeks to get stretched out don't they?

[tigerbrew]

https://www.fanragsports.com/mlb/inside-baseball-picking-jake-arrieta-new-team/

 

Sure does seem Arrieta would sign a 5 year $125 million if it were offered. I imagine the Brewers are somewhere around the 5 years $100 million they offered Braun, Fielder, Greinke, etc... I would go to 5 years $110-$115 million but that's just me.

 

I much prefer to follow the analytical evaluation than the crap “prestige” evaluation by Boras. "Prestige" is useless if he can't pitch like an ace. Boras, please be informed that "prestige" don't win championships, teams should only be paying $100M if they think he can pitch like an ace in most of the duration of the contract.

 

After reading the article, I think the Brewers should not offer Arrieta a $100M contract, the most I'd offer is 4/80.

 

I've always been curious if you won't do 5/100mil (20mil aav) Then why do 20mil AAV and offer 1 year less? I feel like you are telling the player you will pay him 20mil per year and he's worth that. So to the Player why not hold out for the 5th year? All it takes is 1 to go that 5th year. If I were saying no to his 5/100 ask, I'd drop my offer to 4/74mil. 19/19/18/18.

We're not paying you 20mil a year for even 4 years. So why would we do 5?

 

You want a 5 year contract with an opt out after 2? 20/20- 17/15/15. You may want to accept that deal, while I'm still even giving you that option.

 

I should've put $100M+ in my earlier post. From what I read, Boras is looking for a $125M contract which is $25M AAV for 5 years, but my highest offer is 4/$80M - 25/25/15/15 with player opt outs after the second and third year.

 

I'd much prefer less years though, 2 year deal is the best - 2/$50M. If not, 3 years 3/$65M - 25/25/15 with a player opt-out after the second year.

[wildcat2237]

O'Dowd was on the radio (1510) this morning and he said he didn't see the Brewers as a player for Arrietta because of the ask. He did say he saw Cobb as a really good fit for us. Kind of getting down to the nitty gritty. Pitchers need 3-4 weeks to get stretched out don't they?

 

They need at minimum 15 days (3 starts).

 

But ideally three weeks.

[Roderick]

If anderson Davies chacin and woodruff are truly 2-3-4-5 guys then adding 1 won't be enough. 2 (including nelson) wont be enough. Look at what a 2-5 actually does.

 

You lost me there. Are you saying that Anderson, Davies, Chacin, Woodruff aren't really as good as a 2-3-4-5 should be?

 

If so, I disagree. I would say they are all at the top end of those slots easily (if Woodruff falters, Suter would slot in).

 

I think one free agent or trade is enough, when people are saying we need to get two pitchers, I think that would be overkill, when you consider Nelson and Burnes (if not traded away) are midseason possiblities.

[bill hAll Star]

2/45 opt out after yr 1

 

If it comes down to it way later in the offseason, maybe he takes this deal...but there are enough people bidding that Arrieta will wait as long as possible for a longer deal that maybe has its own opt-out. Just seems way to optimistic to think that he'd cave to a Brewers offer like this.

 

I think at the very least he can get a 5 year deal that has lower dollar amounts in the final 3 years that he can opt out of after 1 or 2 years.

[Boomer5]

Reading the Heyman article, the Brewers are out on Arrieta as they should be. Boras wants Price and Mad Max money, not Darvish money.

 

Obviously he won't get it but regardless it will be a severe overpay for a guy we can assume won't live up to his contract.

[homer]

Who is ilitch... sorry!

 

Tigers former owner who recently passed away. I can't think of an owner more massively involved in FA signings in recent memory. Great owner though.

 

I think it is rather irrelevant though. The names being listed are really extreme examples I think all owners can become involved sometimes. Attanasio didn't seem to be involved in the Cain signing nor trading for Yelich. Deep breath everyone.

 

Ilitch was well into his 80's and bidding against himself he signed Prince Fielder when it appeared Prince's market was a bit soft. Ilitch's days on earth were numbered. He didn't outlive Fielder's contract and that's the point. He wanted a championship before he died. Attanasio is 60. He's got a few years.

 

Reminds me of how Reinsdorf operated until the last year or two.

[coolhandluke121]

2/45 opt out after yr 1

 

If it comes down to it way later in the offseason, maybe he takes this deal...but there are enough people bidding that Arrieta will wait as long as possible for a longer deal that maybe has its own opt-out. Just seems way to optimistic to think that he'd cave to a Brewers offer like this.

 

I think at the very least he can get a 5 year deal that has lower dollar amounts in the final 3 years that he can opt out of after 1 or 2 years.

 

This wouldn't preserve the pick unless they wait until after the draft anyway. The $50m threshold determines what kind of compensation the team that offered the QO gets, but they don't get that pick from the team that signs him. They automatically get it at the end of a round, so it's a sandwich pick.

 

The Cubs would get a pick at the end of round 2 if Arrieta signs with anyone else for any amount. They don't get a pick at the end of round 1 because they aren't a revenue-sharing recipient. But they aren't a luxury tax team either, so they don't get bumped down to round 3 or 4 (I forget which one it is).

 

Regardless, the Brewers would still forfeit a pick (I'm pretty sure it would be their 4th-rounder because they forfeited their 3rd-rounder for Cain) for signing a guy who rejected a QO unless they wait until after the draft. And that pick does not go to the Cubs - it's just forfeited.

 

You could make a case for waiting. Make sure Jimmy's going to return by the ASB and you're still in it at that point before making the commitment. Suter and Woodruff will probably have innings limits, so after the draft will be a good time to look at moving Suter to long relief and Woodruff to AAA.

[FVBrewerFan]

O'Dowd was on the radio (1510) this morning and he said he didn't see the Brewers as a player for Arrietta because of the ask. He did say he saw Cobb as a really good fit for us. Kind of getting down to the nitty gritty. Pitchers need 3-4 weeks to get stretched out don't they?

 

They need at minimum 15 days (3 starts).

 

But ideally three weeks.

 

I imagine they would be doing that on their own? You don't need to be at a ST site to do that.

[wallus]

 

I imagine they would be doing that on their own? You don't need to be at a ST site to do that.

 

It would be pretty dumb to be doing that on their own and risk injury.

[wildcat2237]

 

I imagine they would be doing that on their own? You don't need to be at a ST site to do that.

 

It would be pretty dumb to be doing that on their own and risk injury.

 

Exactly. And there is nothing to replace actually facing big league hitters to see if your stuff is working.

[82brewcrew82]

 

I imagine they would be doing that on their own? You don't need to be at a ST site to do that.

 

It would be pretty dumb to be doing that on their own and risk injury.

 

Exactly. And there is nothing to replace actually facing big league hitters to see if your stuff is working.

It depends I guess. My understanding is that if they are attending the MLBPA camp they are protected/covered to some degree.

[bluescale]

It depends I guess. My understanding is that if they are attending the MLBPA camp they are protected/covered to some degree.

 

If they hurt themselves, there's nothing the MLBPA can do to protect them. No one will offer them a contract (depending on the injury, of course).

[82brewcrew82]

It depends I guess. My understanding is that if they are attending the MLBPA camp they are protected/covered to some degree.

 

If they hurt themselves, there's nothing the MLBPA can do to protect them. No one will offer them a contract (depending on the injury, of course).

I thought I read they were providing insurance for those that participated. Maybe I'm wrong.

[jerichoholicninja]

It depends I guess. My understanding is that if they are attending the MLBPA camp they are protected/covered to some degree.

 

If they hurt themselves, there's nothing the MLBPA can do to protect them. No one will offer them a contract (depending on the injury, of course).

I thought I read they were providing insurance for those that participated. Maybe I'm wrong.

 

I'm sure that insurance isn't paying out $20M a year.

[KCBrewerfan34]

Ive seen some rumblings Arrietta wants Price money. Boras is under a lot of pressure to deliver. I saw where the Cubs offered Arrietta 4/110 extension after his big season and he said no thanks. Boras is trying to get teams to buy in to Arrietta's "prestige". God the guy is a joke

[CrewFanBrewMan69]

Ive seen some rumblings Arrietta wants Price money. Boras is under a lot of pressure to deliver. I saw where the Cubs offered Arrietta 4/110 extension after his big season and he said no thanks. Boras is trying to get teams to buy in to Arrietta's "prestige". God the guy is a joke

Yeah it’s crazy, I get betting on yourself but I think it was a big mistake not taking an extension from the Cubs any of the last 3 offseason (which they were reported to offer him one each offseason).

[TJseven7]

Ive seen some rumblings Arrietta wants Price money. Boras is under a lot of pressure to deliver. I saw where the Cubs offered Arrietta 4/110 extension after his big season and he said no thanks. Boras is trying to get teams to buy in to Arrietta's "prestige". God the guy is a joke

 

Prestige? What exactly is that?

 

Oh god I found the article. What a load of garbage. It's not about how good he is... its about how good he makes you feel you are. Is that the hosmer bs too?

 

That's literally saying... no you arent paying this much for the player... you are paying for the name. He's arrieta. You could tell me stanton or harper or trout or kershaw or bum have that casual fan excitement meter going.

 

But Jake Arrieta... Jake freaking Arrieta.

 

I don't buy the "well the cubs bailed on him so that should tell you something" logic... but if his leadership, club house moxy, playoff ilk and prestige was soo out of this world and important... then why in the world did the cubs let their north star leave? Clearly his prestige isn't seen as a big loss by the team that just had him. Thus it's not a big add for the teams who don't have him and isn't worth a dime.

 

Do not be the moron who overpays this guy mke.

[brewmann04]

All he did was price himself out of the game

[JohnBriggs12]

"But Jake Arrieta...Jake freaking Arrieta"

 

He did post one of the greatest seasons in the modern game in 2015, and he's 64-29 with an ERA of 2.67 over his last 4 seasons, so yeah, Jake freaking Arrieta. He's been awfully good.

 

I wouldn't pay anything close to Boras' asking price either, but only because of risk inherent with all pitchers, combined with his age, not because Arrieta's not been a premier pitcher and can still be. Boras is undoubtedly pointing to Verlander's apparent slide a few year ago. His velocity was down too.

[TJseven7]

Yeah and when Verlander got his 6/162 he had piled up 46 war... not 21

 

Verlander has prestige. Arrieta has 4 years.

 

Verlander 7 4+ war years with an 8 7 and 5.

Arrieta 2 4+ war years with an 8 and a 5.

 

Prestige... wrong client.

[3and2Fastball]

Arrieta can be the difference maker for the Brewers to get to the World Series. The Brewers should just get over their fears amd sign him! It is only money. The legacy of a World Championship lasts forever.

[TJseven7]

Wouldn't have been the last 2 years. You want to put 5 years into a guy who had 2 great years by age 31?

 

The last 2 years one pitcher has 5.3 war one has 5.2...

Ones arrieta

The other is Davies

 

That's WS material alright.

[Fear The Chorizo]

Ilitch isn't around to buy Boras' snake oil anymore, either.

 

Anytime an agent tries to use Verlander as a comp, hang up the phone...Verlander will be going to the HOF, and once his career ends he'll be viewed even more favorably for how great and unique a pitcher he was during this era. He's been in the majors for 12 full seasons, and has eclipsed 200 IP in 10 of them. At the time of his "slide", Verlander had logged roughly 2000 MLB regular season innings. Arrieta has logged 1/2 that total. Arrieta's dominance really only occurred from 2nd half 2014 through 1st half 2016 - but he was still really good in the 2016 postseason. The innings load caught up to him - I still view him as an elite pitcher, but his innings need to stay between that 180-200 mark if a team is going to have him in their rotation for the next 4-5 seasons.

 

Arrieta did have a unicorn season in 2015 and was dominant for large parts of 2016...but he nor just about anyone is close to Verlander as a RH starting pitcher in terms of dominance and longevity. Right now the only pitcher going that is getting into the conversation is Mad Max.

[adambr2]

Arrieta can be the difference maker for the Brewers to get to the World Series. The Brewers should just get over their fears amd sign him! It is only money. The legacy of a World Championship lasts forever.

 

Not directing this at you specifically, but this is a lot easier to say for those of us who aren't signing the check. If I'm the one paying for the richest contract in franchise history, I'm definitely going to be concerned about the return on my investment.

 

Arrieta definitely increases our odds at a WS, but he far from guarantees it. Say we sign Arrieta for 5/125. How confident is everyone that cumulatively over the next 5 years, Arrieta outproduces Corbin Burnes or even Brandon Woodruff?