Jake Arrieta

[MrTPlush]

Do basically is Attanasio going to open up his check book or not. There is your one sentence summary.

[jjfanec]

 

Exactly but the same goes for pretty much everything but it is often stated like fact by posters. There must be something wrong with Arrieta if the Cubs didnt go after him has no real facts behind it. The Cubs could have made an offer like rumored or not. The Cubs could have just liked Darvish more. The Cubs could have valued them equally but liked the idea of getting a first round pick to replenish a terrible farm system. Who knows? The point is it is stated as fact to prove people's point. So if I dont like Arrieta the Cubs didnt want him because he is damaged goods becomes a great narrative to prove my point. And if I want Arrieta the Cubs offering him before signing Darvish proves my point.

 

Cubs would get a pick after competitive balance B somewhere in the high 70's

 

Well that is good. I keep seeing people post first round in places. Thanks for the update

[MadThinker88]

 

Exactly but the same goes for pretty much everything but it is often stated like fact by posters. There must be something wrong with Arrieta if the Cubs didnt go after him has no real facts behind it. The Cubs could have made an offer like rumored or not. The Cubs could have just liked Darvish more. The Cubs could have valued them equally but liked the idea of getting a first round pick to replenish a terrible farm system. Who knows? The point is it is stated as fact to prove people's point. So if I dont like Arrieta the Cubs didnt want him because he is damaged goods becomes a great narrative to prove my point. And if I want Arrieta the Cubs offering him before signing Darvish proves my point.

 

Cubs would get a pick after competitive balance B somewhere in the high 70's

 

Scott - How do you figure that? I recall there being a sliding cost scale if a team signed a player that declined a QO but I was under the impression that all teams that lost a player (who declined a QO) got a pick after Round 1 and before the Comp A picks began.

 

That is where Cleveland & KC are picking for losing Carlos Santana, LoCain & Hosmer. http://m.mlb.com/draft/2018/order

 

There were a number of changes to the draft setup this year so I could have easily missed something..

[reillymcshane]

Phil Rogers

Verified account

@philgrogers

4m4 minutes ago

#Brewers would love to add Jake Arrieta but he'd take payroll to club record $110 million-plus in 2018 and more in future seaons. Arb-eligibles after this year include Nelson, Knebel, Villar, Davies, Shaw, Santana, Pina and Perez.

I've been saying this for a while. The Brewers will be looking at $20-25M+ increase in payroll in 2019. In addition to arby cases, there are raises for Yelich, Cain, Anderson, Jeffress and Thames. Not huge raises - but a million or two here and there adds up.

 

Couple that with the fact that will won't have a lot of money coming off the books. As of now, Sogard and Gallardo are the only free agents after the season.

 

We can, of course, non-tender some arby guys - but that only saves so much. And you still have to fill those rosters spots. It's gonna cost something.

 

It's why I've been skeptical of an Arrieta signing. I'm guessing they can squeeze him into their salary structure this year - but I just don't know how high the Crew is willing to push the payroll in 2019 and beyond.

[reillymcshane]

 

Exactly but the same goes for pretty much everything but it is often stated like fact by posters. There must be something wrong with Arrieta if the Cubs didnt go after him has no real facts behind it. The Cubs could have made an offer like rumored or not. The Cubs could have just liked Darvish more. The Cubs could have valued them equally but liked the idea of getting a first round pick to replenish a terrible farm system. Who knows? The point is it is stated as fact to prove people's point. So if I dont like Arrieta the Cubs didnt want him because he is damaged goods becomes a great narrative to prove my point. And if I want Arrieta the Cubs offering him before signing Darvish proves my point.

 

Cubs would get a pick after competitive balance B somewhere in the high 70's

 

Scott - How do you figure that? I recall there being a sliding cost scale if a team signed a player that declined a QO but I was under the impression that all teams that lost a player (who declined a QO) got a pick after Round 1 and before the Comp A picks began.

 

That is where Cleveland & KC are picking for losing Carlos Santana, LoCain & Hosmer. http://m.mlb.com/draft/2018/order

 

There were a number of changes to the draft setup this year so I could have easily missed something..

The quick explanation is that the Cubs are NOT a revenue sharing recipient. Thus their picks are after Competitive Balance Round B. Teams that get money in revenue sharing go after the 1st round - teams such as KC and Cleveland. That's why you are seeing what you are seeing.

 

Here's the details:

 

Under the new rules, if the team that loses the free agent is a revenue-sharing recipient, based on its revenues and market size, then the selection -- if and only if the lost player signs for at least $50 million -- will be awarded a pick between the first round and Competitive Balance Round A of the 2018 MLB Draft. If the player signs for less than $50 million, the compensation pick for those teams would come after Competitive Balance Round B, which follows the second round.

 

The following 16 teams currently qualify for these picks: A's, Astros, Braves, Brewers, D-backs, Indians, Mariners, Marlins, Orioles, Padres, Pirates, Rays, Reds, Rockies, Royals and Twins.

 

If the team that loses the player does not receive revenue sharing and did not exceed the luxury-tax salary threshold the previous season, its compensatory pick will come after Competitive Balance Round B. The value of the player's contract doesn't matter in this case. The nine clubs that fall into this category are the Angels, Blue Jays, Cardinals, Cubs, Mets, Phillies, Rangers, Red Sox and White Sox.

 

Source: https://www.mlb.com/news/mlb-qualifying-offer-rules-explained/c-259650658

[MadThinker88]

Thanks Reilly.

[Warning Track Power]

https://www.mlb.com/news/phillies-talking-with-free-agent-jake-arrieta/c-266763682

Sounds like giving the 5th year is what will get any deal with Arrieta done. I for one am comfortable with a 5 year $110 million contract/$22 AAV which tops Darvish.

 

In regard to arbitration eligible players mentioned...Nelson, Knebel, Villar, Davies, Shaw, Santana, Pina and Perez. I am comfortable letting Villar and Perez walk and replace them with Hiura/Dubon, I fully expect Santana to be dealt and Pina may prove to be a one year wonder. The challenges will be if Nelson, Knebel, Davies and Shaw. I would be approaching Davies and Shaw now about contract extensions to set some cost certainty. Nelson will be hard to gauge until we see him post surgery. Knebel...man elite closers in small markets are hard to keep when they get expensive.

 

Lots to juggle but I think an Arrieta contract is very doable.

[reillymcshane]

Thanks Reilly.

No problem.

[TooLiveBrew]

They have no closer experience. That matters.

 

Yes, it mattered so much when Corey Knebel took the role last year.

 

It's 3 outs in a baseball game and a very overused cliche. The pressure or fact that guys face the best pinch hitters does mean something at times, but not nearly that much.

I personally have always felt they same way you do about the closer role. But the one thing that sways me is that you always hear pitchers talk about it being a unique challenge (I think even Smoltz has spoken to this, & he was a great pitcher, & an announcer who I like because he doesn't spout cliches).

 

In this case I think perception does equal reality, at least to some extent.

[JosephC]

Phil Rogers

Verified account

@philgrogers

4m4 minutes ago

#Brewers would love to add Jake Arrieta but he'd take payroll to club record $110 million-plus in 2018 and more in future seaons. Arb-eligibles after this year include Nelson, Knebel, Villar, Davies, Shaw, Santana, Pina and Perez.

I've been saying this for a while. The Brewers will be looking at $20-25M+ increase in payroll in 2019. In addition to arby cases, there are raises for Yelich, Cain, Anderson, Jeffress and Thames. Not huge raises - but a million or two here and there adds up.

 

Couple that with the fact that will won't have a lot of money coming off the books. As of now, Sogard and Gallardo are the only free agents after the season.

 

We can, of course, non-tender some arby guys - but that only saves so much. And you still have to fill those rosters spots. It's gonna cost something.

 

It's why I've been skeptical of an Arrieta signing. I'm guessing they can squeeze him into their salary structure this year - but I just don't know how high the Crew is willing to push the payroll in 2019 and beyond.

 

I think the same thing even with a 15+ million dollar a year signing which may eliminate Cobb and Lynn in addition to Arrieta.

 

2020 salary guess:

 

Braun = 16

Cain = 16

Yelich = 12.5

Thames = 1 (assume buyout)

Anderson = 8.5

Nelson = 7.1 (arbitration guess)

Knebel = 6.9 (arbitration guess)

Davies = 4.9 (arbitration guess)

Shaw = 5.4 (arbitration guess)

Pina = 3.6 (arbitration guess)

Arcia = 2.8 (arbitration guess)

Barnes = 2.1 (arbitration guess)

13 players at 600k each

Total = 94.6 million

 

Add in a 15 million dollar pitcher and that puts it at about 110 million which is higher than they have ever run in the past. And note that these are 2020 estimates, so 1 more big contract not only limits their spending for next year but in 2019 and 2020 as well.

 

And note the above list does not include these players who are currently still controlled by the Brewers through the 2020 season:

Villar = 4.1 million (arbitration guess)

Perez = 3.2 million (arbitration guess)

Jeffress = 4.3 million (arbitration guess)

Santana = 5.4 million (arbitration guess)

Broxton = 2.2 million (arbitration guess)

Add any of those guys in, and it's that much less payroll space to deal with.

 

IMO all this is not an issue if Attanasio is willing to push the payroll cap to 125-130 million over the next few seasons, but I'll believe it when I see it. If the plan is for the payroll to stay in the 105-110 million range, I really dislike the Yelich/Cain moves that much more. IMO most of the offensive problems from last year were tied to OBP problems at 2B and CF, and they had enough minor league depth to try and fill the centerfield spot from within and it's looking like Neil Walker might have been a cheap stop-gap for the couple seasons until Hiura is ready. No idea why the team decided to throw so many resources into outfielders? Would have been better off with adding more pitching IMO.

[bill hAll Star]

I would hope that Attanasio has gone into this with the cost ceiling in mind. So far I've really liked what they've done. Yelich is affordable and I'm a fan of Cain's deal, even if it's maybe a year too long.

 

I've been a fan of a FA signing over trade because that means Mark's budget is high enough anyways. I can't imagine he'd go half in knowing that adding another pitcher may cost $10-20 million more/year.

 

If we're stuck having to trade for Archer to round this thing out due to salary difference, I'll be really mad at Attanasio. Boxing yourself in with an "all-in" roster where you have to empty out your future cheap players to probably attain 2nd place would crush me.

 

They'll probably trade Santana if they sign Arrieta or Cobb and while '18/'19 are challenging financially, it starts to ramp back down around then. I've been all for hitching their wagon to free agents this offseason because I don't think they'll be in play for many next offseason and they can get the bigger money out of the way now and then reassess in 2020 when Braun and several other guys will be getting set to leave and empty some of the payroll out. I hope Mark was willing to go to $120-130 for 3 years here before Braun's deal ends. If not, this could be depressing.

[Brewersfanatic2882]

I also think it is still possible to sign Arrieta. The Brewers have saved a ton of mone during the rebuild and Mark has stated before that he will use a lot of the money saved to help the team. The team is also worth a lot more than what it was and for a small market team, the a Brewers tend to bring in a decent revenue. So I think if the Brewers really want Arrieta or Cobb or whoever, then they'll get him. I beleive they can push the payroll to 130mil if they want to.

[pacopete4]

I hope they don't push the payroll to the max for a guy like Arrieta. It will leave us absolutely no room if/when he stinks in a couple of years, heck maybe even next year.

[bill hAll Star]

I hope they don't push the payroll to the max for a guy like Arrieta. It will leave us absolutely no room if/when he stinks in a couple of years, heck maybe even next year.

 

The thing is, if they don't do it now, their options will likely be equally risky players in the next 2 years. Gotta take the leap at some point.

 

I get that it could rule out getting maybe a safer pitcher via trade at a certain point, but if it's someone like Archer or Stroman, they can probably find a way to shed a bit of salary if they really, really need to.

 

I'll live with minimal flexibility the next 3 years. The only way it backfires is if the other 24 players look very good but Arrieta is a bust. We're taking a 3 year shot here and I'd rather have our farm system waiting on the other side if it fails (i.e. not trading for Archer).

[StearnsFTW]

They have no closer experience. That matters.

 

Yes, it mattered so much when Corey Knebel took the role last year.

 

It's 3 outs in a baseball game and a very overused cliche. The pressure or fact that guys face the best pinch hitters does mean something at times, but not nearly that much.

 

And I can list a whole mess of setup men who couldn't handle it. It matters. And yes, as I said, I think Edwards will take that role and is very good.

[brewmann04]

We have to hope Either Jake or Alex is good for at least two years and then add some of their Younger arms Like Burnes and Ortiz and Perelta

[bill hAll Star]

They have no closer experience. That matters.

 

Yes, it mattered so much when Corey Knebel took the role last year.

 

It's 3 outs in a baseball game and a very overused cliche. The pressure or fact that guys face the best pinch hitters does mean something at times, but not nearly that much.

 

And I can list a whole mess of setup men who couldn't handle it. It matters. And yes, as I said, I think Edwards will take that role and is very good.

 

There have been some that either aren't good enough and a handful that couldn't handle the pressure. It's not a huge list, though. It's 3 outs in a baseball game and the guys generally already pitched high leverage situations before they got there. It's not like they're pitching on Mars.

[pacopete4]

I hope they don't push the payroll to the max for a guy like Arrieta. It will leave us absolutely no room if/when he stinks in a couple of years, heck maybe even next year.

 

The thing is, if they don't do it now, their options will likely be equally risky players in the next 2 years. Gotta take the leap at some point.

 

I get that it could rule out getting maybe a safer pitcher via trade at a certain point, but if it's someone like Archer or Stroman, they can probably find a way to shed a bit of salary if they really, really need to.

 

I'll live with minimal flexibility the next 3 years. The only way it backfires is if the other 24 players look very good but Arrieta is a bust. We're taking a 3 year shot here and I'd rather have our farm system waiting on the other side if it fails (i.e. not trading for Archer).

I would rather take a leap on the cheaper, less year (hopefully) option in Cobb. I just don't see how in any way that Arrieta earns his contract moving forward. Too many indicators pointing in the wrong direction for this guy to get the money and length of contract from a franchise like the Brewers. Hopefully, Philly outbids us.

[Boomer5]

How many pitchers over 30 in the non ped era have ever put up 5 quality years in a row?

[bill hAll Star]

I hope they don't push the payroll to the max for a guy like Arrieta. It will leave us absolutely no room if/when he stinks in a couple of years, heck maybe even next year.

 

The thing is, if they don't do it now, their options will likely be equally risky players in the next 2 years. Gotta take the leap at some point.

 

I get that it could rule out getting maybe a safer pitcher via trade at a certain point, but if it's someone like Archer or Stroman, they can probably find a way to shed a bit of salary if they really, really need to.

 

I'll live with minimal flexibility the next 3 years. The only way it backfires is if the other 24 players look very good but Arrieta is a bust. We're taking a 3 year shot here and I'd rather have our farm system waiting on the other side if it fails (i.e. not trading for Archer).

I would rather take a leap on the cheaper, less year (hopefully) option in Cobb. I just don't see how in any way that Arrieta earns his contract moving forward. Too many indicators pointing in the wrong direction for this guy to get the money and length of contract from a franchise like the Brewers. Hopefully, Philly outbids us.

 

No sought after free agent ever "earns" their contract in today's game.

 

If they sign Arrieta, IMO it means that they have the budget for Arrieta and a little wiggle room. He only should cost a little bit more than Cobb, so if they go for Arrieta, I trust that means that Mark can still pick up a reliever or something if they need one next year.

 

I'd prefer Cobb as well but I'm going to be happy with any of them that they choose to go for.

[coolhandluke121]

They have no closer experience. That matters.

 

Yes, it mattered so much when Corey Knebel took the role last year.

 

It's 3 outs in a baseball game and a very overused cliche. The pressure or fact that guys face the best pinch hitters does mean something at times, but not nearly that much.

 

And I can list a whole mess of setup men who couldn't handle it. It matters. And yes, as I said, I think Edwards will take that role and is very good.

 

That doesn't mean there's a huge difference between setting up and closing. It means reliever performance is volatile from year-to-year. We don't make a big deal of it when a good starter has 6 bad weeks (or a bad starter has 6 good weeks) to start the season because we know it's normal fluctuation. But a reliever might only pitch that many innings in an entire year, so we draw conclusions from his performance when we shouldn't.

 

Most effective relievers can handle closing just fine. The "clutch" is more about narrative than performance. Some players do tighten up and choke a little, but it's usually just an overused cliche.

[pacopete4]

 

No sought after free agent ever "earns" their contract in today's game.

 

If they sign Arrieta, IMO it means that they have the budget for Arrieta and a little wiggle room. He only should cost a little bit more than Cobb, so if they go for Arrieta, I trust that means that Mark can still pick up a reliever or something if they need one next year.

 

I'd prefer Cobb as well but I'm going to be happy with any of them that they choose to go for.

 

If we can get Cobb for $16-18M per year for 4 years, I think he has an opportunity to earn that contract if he is able to get his changeup back to what it was. I really think Arrieta will be toast in two seasons, if that. I just do not feel comfortable with him at all.

[brewerfan82]

How many pitchers over 30 in the non ped era have ever put up 5 quality years in a row?

Just clicking through some other former Cy Young winners between 2008 and 2012, you've got these guys who fared fairly well in their 30's:

 

Cliff Lee (5.4, 4.8, 8.6, 4.5, 7.3 bWARs ages 30-34)

Zack Greinke (4.3, 9.3, 2.3, 6.0 bWARs ages 30-now)

RA Dickey (3.6, 3.6, 5.8, 2.0, 2.5 bWARS ages 35-39)

Justin Verlander (4.6, 1.1, 2.2, 6.6, 4.5 bWARS ages 30-34)

Roy Halladay (3.5, 6.2, 6.9, 8.3, 8.9 bWARS ages 30-34)

 

And that's practically every Cy Young pitcher from those years that's even had at least 4 years in their 30s to consider.

[tmwiese55]

After seeing that list of players Cole Hamels name popped in my head. He didn't have a great year last year, but was solid the year before. If TX is out of contention and Hamels is doing fine he could be the Verlander type acquisition if we're in need of a starter. Then again, if that's the case he'd probably be a target by all contenders. I don't know on his no-trade as it just says 'limited' but he's only signed this year and next so not a massive risk.

[Scott.fossum]

 

Exactly but the same goes for pretty much everything but it is often stated like fact by posters. There must be something wrong with Arrieta if the Cubs didnt go after him has no real facts behind it. The Cubs could have made an offer like rumored or not. The Cubs could have just liked Darvish more. The Cubs could have valued them equally but liked the idea of getting a first round pick to replenish a terrible farm system. Who knows? The point is it is stated as fact to prove people's point. So if I dont like Arrieta the Cubs didnt want him because he is damaged goods becomes a great narrative to prove my point. And if I want Arrieta the Cubs offering him before signing Darvish proves my point.

 

Cubs would get a pick after competitive balance B somewhere in the high 70's

 

Scott - How do you figure that? I recall there being a sliding cost scale if a team signed a player that declined a QO but I was under the impression that all teams that lost a player (who declined a QO) got a pick after Round 1 and before the Comp A picks began.

 

That is where Cleveland & KC are picking for losing Carlos Santana, LoCain & Hosmer. http://m.mlb.com/draft/2018/order

 

There were a number of changes to the draft setup this year so I could have easily missed something..

 

Cleveland, KC, and Tampa Bay are competitive balance receiving teams so their loss of a qualified free agent resulted in a pick between the first and second round. Cubs are not in that situation so they will receive a pick after competitive balance B. Check out your link that you posted and see what the Cubs got for losing Wade Davis, pick 76. They will get another pick right around there.