Jake Arrieta

[tigerbrew]

The more I think about it, the more I prefer to sign Arrieta over Cobb. Should be interesting watching Arrieta pitch against the Cubs for the Brewers. For a pitcher, Arrieta is no slouch with the bat.

[jjfanec]

That kind of stuff happens all the time. Plus we don't really know where the 'leak' came from. It could be Boras saying it and the reporter repeating it for whatever reasons, usually to stay in favor of the agent. so could be just the reporters doing favors, again this happens all time. Long story short, don't put too much stock in info that is intentionally put out there by someone, take it for what it is

 

And no one has proof the Cubs didn't want arrieta just that they like darvish and a draft pick more which everyone would agree with

[brewmann04]

Does Boras still have Mark personal cell number ?

[Boomer5]

The more I think about it, the more I prefer to sign Arrieta over Cobb. Should be interesting watching Arrieta pitch against the Cubs for the Brewers. For a pitcher, Arrieta is no slouch with the bat.

 

Arrieta is a clear decline candidate but if Cobb asks for 5 years you laugh then go for Arrieta.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

The more I think about it, the more I prefer to sign Arrieta over Cobb. Should be interesting watching Arrieta pitch against the Cubs for the Brewers. For a pitcher, Arrieta is no slouch with the bat.

 

Arrieta is a clear decline candidate but if Cobb asks for 5 years you laugh then go for Arrieta.

 

And if your GM has that attitude, you sign no players. Ever. And your GM gets fired sooner than later.

[Boomer5]

Giving 5 year deals to 30 plus year olds is what ends GMs careers, especially to a small market team.

 

Cobb has had TJS, a concussion, a blood clot, and had a rib removed. 5 year deal? Yeah no.

 

If 5 years is a must, the only guy you'd consider is Arrieta.

[jjfanec]

Giving 5 year deals to 30 plus year olds is what ends GMs careers, especially to a small market team.

 

Cobb has had TJS, a concussion, a blood clot, and had a rib removed. 5 year deal? Yeah no.

 

If 5 years is a must, the only guy you'd consider is Arrieta.

 

Darvish is 31 and just got a 6 year deal

Darvish had Tommy John surgery

 

Cobb had the blod clot and rib injury in 2011 and was very good after that. His concussion was on a line drive to head. Really injury prone

[DR28]

Boomer, we get it you dont like Cobb................

[Boomer5]

Giving 5 year deals to 30 plus year olds is what ends GMs careers, especially to a small market team.

 

Cobb has had TJS, a concussion, a blood clot, and had a rib removed. 5 year deal? Yeah no.

 

If 5 years is a must, the only guy you'd consider is Arrieta.

 

Darvish is 31 and just got a 6 year deal

Darvish had Tommy John surgery

 

Cobb had the blod clot and rib injury in 2011 and was very good after that. His concussion was on a line drive to head. Really injury prone

 

Concussions are progressive, how he received it is irrelevant .

 

He is not a 5 year candidate for many reasons. I'm really not sure any pitcher is for a small market team other than the super elite.

 

Arrieta is hardly an ideal 5 year guy either but if you have to wager on one being able to fulfill at least 4 of the 5 years, Arrieta is the clear best bet.

[Boomer5]

Boomer, we get it you dont like Cobb................

 

Not true. I like him at 3/45 or so. 5 years which is today's rumor is insane.

[Jenkins5]

Giving 5 year deals to 30 plus year olds is what ends GMs careers, especially to a small market team.

 

Cobb has had TJS, a concussion, a blood clot, and had a rib removed. 5 year deal? Yeah no.

 

If 5 years is a must, the only guy you'd consider is Arrieta.

 

Darvish is 31 and just got a 6 year deal

Darvish had Tommy John surgery

 

Cobb had the blod clot and rib injury in 2011 and was very good after that. His concussion was on a line drive to head. Really injury prone

 

[sarcasm]If his reflexes were slow enough to let a line drive hit him in head 7 years ago..... with athletic quickness depreciating with age, I say he is more likely to be at risk for another concussion....[/sarcasm]

 

Concussion was a fluke like jjfanec stated, brain has recovered by now (2 years usually to be fully recover and not at higher risk to receive another unless another line drive strikes him). Rib and clot had zero effect on him. TJ arms are always a risk but in 10 years with the way we abuse young arms from age 10 on.....vast majority will soon be in same boat. 5 years is a lot though for any pitcher who is not entering prime or sub 30. He doesn't have good enough track record due to TJ over past 3 years to earn that kind of deal. Could get creative with a 3 year deal mutual option year 4, team option year 5..... Even if it cost more early.

[brewmann04]

It's getting frustrating just hope the brewers get something done with one or the other soon.

[Jenkins5]

Arrieta is my guy. Maybe it is just because I wish my beard grow half as amazing as his but I have always loved watching him pitch. He is a competitor and fierce. 2nd half we found his stuff again and corrected what plagued him. Sometimes you wonder if some struggles come along with the whole team struggling and a down clubhouse. That mental aspect of baseball that plays major role but goes underrated. As Cubs removed head....so did he.

 

All that said, he has given up a ton of HRs.... not sure Miller Park will help that. Better going to a nice pitcher friendly field.

 

Overall, im excited with any new pitcher who makes us better now. Hope contract is something that doesn't hurt long-term. Sick of the Suppan, Garza, Lohse deals that start out good (Suppan not so much) then seems awful on backend. Being stuck for 2 years with an unmovable contract with awful production is never fun

[reillymcshane]

I will say that I would take Arrieta at $20M more than I would Cobb (or Lynn) at $15M. I simply think Arrieta has the best chance to be a better pitcher than the other guys. I don't know if we will pay Arrieta that amount - but we'll see.

 

I have to say that all of these guys scare me in some fashion. But let's be honest - what free agent pitcher wouldn't scare me? I mean, if it was Kershaw and he was getting $35M per year for eight years I'd be terrified about the later half of the deal. I'd be scared sinking that kind of money into ANY player for fear they'd get old or injured or whatever. Sometimes, we just have to make the leap. And I'll take Arrieta at $20M or so. I think he helps push us from having lots of solid players, to good players - guys that make a difference.

 

Cobb or Lynn would - without question - help this club. But I want to push the envelope a bit if we are going to splurge.

 

I just wonder if we can afford Arrieta.

[TJseven7]

Boomer, we get it you dont like Cobb................

 

Not true. I like him at 3/45 or so. 5 years which is today's rumor is insane.

 

Yeah I'd totally take a team friendly shorter than acceptable deal for him... and he'd pass that like he passed the cubs 42/3. I mean he had tj and some real flukey injuries so he's injury prone? Come on. Those nagging liners off the head really hinder him. Those concussions are a problem when they add up so he better not take a liner off the head 2-3 more times. Or better not have some rare blood clot issue and need another rib removed? These aren't reoccuring in baseball.

 

Guy has next to no wear and tear on that arm for a 30 year old. Was on pace for 222 ip last year before... oh dear turf toe! Pitched at a 3.25 era through 6 ip without his best pitch.

 

I get everyone gets an opinion but boy howdy its hard to listen to them when their reasoning is faulty, biased and uninformed. I don't get why you feel the need to piss on his value as if the crew gains from it.

 

60/4 is just fine. 70/5 puts him at 34. He's a sinker 42% curve 22% split/change 36% guy. That's a repertoire of a pitcher who ages well. His velocity was exactly where he left it pre tj and he only throws around 92.

 

On the other hand Arietta lives on his FB. His FB and cutter were the pitches that made him a monster in 14 and 15. The cutter value evaporated in 16... and went bad in 17. The fb deminished massively in 17.

 

That's your safer bet. A dude who lives on his fb who is losing velocity over a guy who couldn't figure out his split change in his 1st year back from tj.

 

I give up man.

 

Arrieta is a disaster waiting to happen. He's run up a ton of work on that arm and its declining. He feasted in 14-15 throwing 75.8% and 79.8% cutter and FB (mostly sinker). In an era where guys are sitting fb he put up back to back seasons of 65.4% and 63.9% fb (almost all sinker)... and his velocity on it went from an average of 94.9 in 14-15 to 2016 94.4 to 2017 92.4.

 

Heavy work load... fb pitcher... declining mph... safer long term? Yeah if cobb wants 5 years laugh and shoot yourself in the crotch with a 5 year deal on Arrieta. That'll show'em!

[MNBrew]

so that guy was throwing conventional wisdom at you

Of course that’s what he was doing, at least on some level. It’s also possible he tipped a little inside-circles knowledge. Or something else... Who really knows? Regardless, it was still a cool comment to hear and a cool conversation to have had.

 

Remembering another snippet of the conversation, my response to his “That’s what I’m hearing” was that I follow a lot of the rumors reporting and hadn’t heard anything so definitive, and his last comment was, “Well, I know we’re not signing him!”

 

(Didn’t intentionally withhold that. I’m brain-fried after a long day of travel.)

[jonescm128]

Heyman tweeting out that the Phillies are engaged in dialogue with Arrieta. Nola and Arrieta would make a nice top of the rotation for that young club. They have the money to spend too.

[tmwiese55]

That kind of stuff happens all the time. Plus we don't really know where the 'leak' came from. It could be Boras saying it and the reporter repeating it for whatever reasons, usually to stay in favor of the agent. so could be just the reporters doing favors, again this happens all time. Long story short, don't put too much stock in info that is intentionally put out there by someone, take it for what it is

 

And no one has proof the Cubs didn't want arrieta just that they like darvish and a draft pick more which everyone would agree with

 

For sure. We have no idea either way. The whole point is don't believe (or at least take with a grain of salt) whatever info is pushed out in the media. None of this stuff is 100% factual either way.

 

For an example right in front of us take the Darvish thing with MKE. All these linked things to him, intentionally put out there by someone. Then after the signing MKE is saying it was all exaggerated. who knows what to believe, some info gets pushed out with an agenda behind it that could be partially BS. Or it could be legit. Who knows. Whole point was that just because one reporter said it, doesn't mean it's true.

[jjfanec]

That kind of stuff happens all the time. Plus we don't really know where the 'leak' came from. It could be Boras saying it and the reporter repeating it for whatever reasons, usually to stay in favor of the agent. so could be just the reporters doing favors, again this happens all time. Long story short, don't put too much stock in info that is intentionally put out there by someone, take it for what it is

 

And no one has proof the Cubs didn't want arrieta just that they like darvish and a draft pick more which everyone would agree with

 

For sure. We have no idea either way. The whole point is don't believe (or at least take with a grain of salt) whatever info is pushed out in the media. None of this stuff is 100% factual either way.

 

For an example right in front of us take the Darvish thing with MKE. All these linked things to him, intentionally put out there by someone. Then after the signing MKE is saying it was all exaggerated. who knows what to believe, some info gets pushed out with an agenda behind it that could be partially BS. Or it could be legit. Who knows. Whole point was that just because one reporter said it, doesn't mean it's true.

 

Exactly but the same goes for pretty much everything but it is often stated like fact by posters. There must be something wrong with Arrieta if the Cubs didnt go after him has no real facts behind it. The Cubs could have made an offer like rumored or not. The Cubs could have just liked Darvish more. The Cubs could have valued them equally but liked the idea of getting a first round pick to replenish a terrible farm system. Who knows? The point is it is stated as fact to prove people's point. So if I dont like Arrieta the Cubs didnt want him because he is damaged goods becomes a great narrative to prove my point. And if I want Arrieta the Cubs offering him before signing Darvish proves my point.

[StearnsFTW]

The Cubs did have interest bringing him back and it seems like they would have brought him back over getting Darvish under the right circumstance. It is hard to know what was going on since we don’t know the contract offered, but the Cubs didn’t just run from Arrieta.

 

The Cubs had very little interest in bringing back Arrieta. They wanted to do something like Cobb/Chatwood early, but Cobb was pricing himself too high and Darvish price was coming down, so the Cubs pivoted to Darvish.

 

(Note: I find it funny that some Brewers fans--not sure if it is this board or not--are talking themselves into believing the Cubs bullpen will be bad.)

 

It will be. Watch. Hanging your hat on Brandon Morrow and Justin Wilson is bad business.

 

No ones talking themselves into it.

 

Edit: And to be clear, I'm not saying the Brewers will finish ahead of the Cubs, the Cubs aren't the better team, etc., but the Cubs bullpen will be a problem this year in my opinion.

[bill hAll Star]

The Cubs did have interest bringing him back and it seems like they would have brought him back over getting Darvish under the right circumstance. It is hard to know what was going on since we don’t know the contract offered, but the Cubs didn’t just run from Arrieta.

 

The Cubs had very little interest in bringing back Arrieta. They wanted to do something like Cobb/Chatwood early, but Cobb was pricing himself too high and Darvish price was coming down, so the Cubs pivoted to Darvish.

 

(Note: I find it funny that some Brewers fans--not sure if it is this board or not--are talking themselves into believing the Cubs bullpen will be bad.)

 

It will be. Watch. Hanging your hat on Brandon Morrow and Justin Wilson is bad business.

 

No ones talking themselves into it. It's just the way it is.

 

I mean Wilson is like their #6 reliever out of the bullpen, but sure.

 

I think they'll have a good one. Morrow is a risk, but even good relievers are very volatile. Cishek, Strop, Edwards, Deunsing as a LOOGY guy, plus Montgomery is very good when he's not a starter. At the very least it should be pretty stable.

[StearnsFTW]

I don't see anyone in that pen scaring anyone in the 8th and 9th. They have no closer experience. That matters. Bunch of decent arms and not much else there. Stable? Ok, I guess I can buy that, except the 9th is a huge question mark. Stable doesn't equal good.

 

I do like Edwards quite a bit, but he's only done it for one year. I'd guess he'll be their closer at some point.

[JDBrewCrew]

Phil Rogers

Verified account

@philgrogers

4m4 minutes ago

#Brewers would love to add Jake Arrieta but he'd take payroll to club record $110 million-plus in 2018 and more in future seaons. Arb-eligibles after this year include Nelson, Knebel, Villar, Davies, Shaw, Santana, Pina and Perez.

[bill hAll Star]

They have no closer experience. That matters.

 

Yes, it mattered so much when Corey Knebel took the role last year.

 

It's 3 outs in a baseball game and a very overused cliche. The pressure or fact that guys face the best pinch hitters does mean something at times, but not nearly that much.

[Scott.fossum]

 

Exactly but the same goes for pretty much everything but it is often stated like fact by posters. There must be something wrong with Arrieta if the Cubs didnt go after him has no real facts behind it. The Cubs could have made an offer like rumored or not. The Cubs could have just liked Darvish more. The Cubs could have valued them equally but liked the idea of getting a first round pick to replenish a terrible farm system. Who knows? The point is it is stated as fact to prove people's point. So if I dont like Arrieta the Cubs didnt want him because he is damaged goods becomes a great narrative to prove my point. And if I want Arrieta the Cubs offering him before signing Darvish proves my point.

 

Cubs would get a pick after competitive balance B somewhere in the high 70's