Jake Arrieta

[brewmann04]

Yes everyone has there own thoughts on this but Cobb and Jake are not in Clayton category

[StCroixCtyBrewer]

Maybe I’m way off and speculating here but...

 

Twins traded what I understand to be a mid to low level prospect straight up for Odorizzi. Odorizzi is a guy that Stearns was reportedly somewhat interested in. To me, it seems like the Brewers are probably in the midst of working on a better pitcher to not do a deal like that. Is it Arrieta? Cobb? I have no idea. Is this wild speculation on my part or does it make sense?

[splitterpfj]

Maybe I’m way off and speculating here but...

 

Twins traded what I understand to be a mid to low level prospect straight up for Odorizzi. Odorizzi is a guy that Stearns was reportedly somewhat interested in. To me, it seems like the Brewers are probably in the midst of working on a better pitcher to not do a deal like that. Is it Arrieta? Cobb? I have no idea. Is this wild speculation on my part or does it make sense?

 

I have no idea if the Odorizzi trade will impact the free agent market, or anything the Brewers might be working on - but seeing the three “big” free agent pitchers still sitting there, how can you not wonder?

[MVP2110]

Maybe I’m way off and speculating here but...

 

Twins traded what I understand to be a mid to low level prospect straight up for Odorizzi. Odorizzi is a guy that Stearns was reportedly somewhat interested in. To me, it seems like the Brewers are probably in the midst of working on a better pitcher to not do a deal like that. Is it Arrieta? Cobb? I have no idea. Is this wild speculation on my part or does it make sense?

 

I agree. Stearns must be fairly confident he will get something else done for him not to make this move.

[brewmann04]

I tend to agree that DS has better prospect if he wanted Jake but I also agree he up to something else

[packer822]

heck....if all it took was 1 decent prospect for odorizzi ....i would have given them dubon

[Mr Southpaw]

heck....if all it took was 1 decent prospect for odorizzi ....i would have given them dubon

Look at it this way, that is one less team needing a starting pitcher. All of the big FA just lost about 20% of their leverage.

[tigerbrew]

There was a big regression in his stats last year and his velocity has dipped. Arrieta may no longer be a TOR pitcher based on last year's stats, that's probably why the Cubs didn't want to sign him to a big contract. It may be too risky to give him a 4 year deal, think the most I'd offer him is 3/$60.

 

If Arrieta really wants to stick it to the Cubs, the Brewers is the place to be for him.

[MrTPlush]

The Cubs did have interest bringing him back and it seems like they would have brought him back over getting Darvish under the right circumstance. It is hard to know what was going on since we don’t know the contract offered, but the Cubs didn’t just run from Arrieta.

[dpapo]

I have my doubts that the Cubs spend the time negotiating with Darvish and not Arrieta. Coming to an agreement with Darvish on a contract and then at the last minute offering a similar contract to Arrieta. That doesn't seem to make sense. If they really preferred Arrieta, they would have been negotiating with both players or at the very least had a pretty good idea of what Arrieta would have been willing to accept. Sounds like something either the Cubs leaked out for their fans to show they tried to sign Arrieta or maybe Boras to try to drive up a contract offer for Arrieta or maybe a bit of both.

[MVP2110]

I think a big part of it too was the Cubs wanted the draft pick they will get from Arrieta.

[Boomer5]

They clearly had little interest in bringing back Arrieta. They were only trying to drive up his price to others by even remotely suggesting otherwise.

[badwolf1981]

The Cubs did have interest bringing him back and it seems like they would have brought him back over getting Darvish under the right circumstance. It is hard to know what was going on since we don’t know the contract offered, but the Cubs didn’t just run from Arrieta.

 

The Cubs had very little interest in bringing back Arrieta. They wanted to do something like Cobb/Chatwood early, but Cobb was pricing himself too high and Darvish price was coming down, so the Cubs pivoted to Darvish.

 

(Note: I find it funny that some Brewers fans--not sure if it is this board or not--are talking themselves into believing the Cubs bullpen will be bad.)

[Fear The Chorizo]

I look at Arrieta's dip in production/velocity/etc last season compared to 2015-2016 years simply as what should be expected after logging ~470IP over those two seasons (regular + postseason). Prior to 2015, Arrieta never pitched more than 160IP in a year. The dilemma with him moving forward is at his age, does coming off a 2017 season where he wasn't ridden as hard get him back to being a frontline starter for 180-190IP a season for most of his next contract, or does he continue regressing? If it's the former he's more valuable than Darvish - if it's the latter he's unsignable for a small market team.

[jonescm128]

I look at Arrieta's dip in production/velocity/etc last season compared to 2015-2016 years simply as what should be expected after logging ~470IP over those two seasons (regular + postseason). Prior to 2015, Arrieta never pitched more than 160IP in a year. The dilemma with him moving forward is at his age, does coming off a 2017 season where he wasn't ridden as hard get him back to being a frontline starter for 180-190IP a season for most of his next contract, or does he continue regressing? If it's the former he's more valuable than Darvish - if it's the latter he's unsignable for a small market team.

 

I believe he had a lingering hamstring issue last year as well

[Jopal78]

More likely than not, Arrieta was not 100% healthy last year. He had a rough start to the year, possibly from a heavy workload in their championship year, and was given extra rest after suffering a leg injury in September.

 

However, Arrieta was the same dominant pitcher after June 27th. After the 27th Arrieta did not give up more than 3 runs in a start for the rest of the year, including the playoffs. Of those 14 regular season starts after June 27th, Arrieta went 6 or more innings in nine of them. 70 strike outs against 24 walks in 80 innings, and opponents hit .206 off him as well.

 

Those results are what you'd expect from an elite frontline starter. Even with a diminution of velocity, he clearly knows how to pitch effectively. I'd be happy to have him on the Brewers at whatever price, however they're a team without a history of committing 20+ million dollars per year to a free agent, so I doubt it will happen.

[jjfanec]

There have been numerous reports that Cubs made a big money offer to Arrieta - https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/jake-arrieta-reportedly-turned-down-big-money-from-cubs-before-they-signed-yu-darvish/

 

From the article via Heyman

The Chicago Cubs were down the road with Yu Darvish, but before they completed a deal, Cubs baseball president Theo Epstein, respectfully, put in one last call to the Cubs' star free agent Jake Arrieta for one last, long-shot chance to see if — if need be — they could extend Arrieta's career with a deal believed to be similar to the one offered to Darvish should Darvish turn them down.

 

The narrative that the Cubs didnt want Arrieta is being overplayed. They did want him. They just seemed to want Darvish more unless Heyman is completely wrong here.

[tmwiese55]

Or it could be the Cubs doing Arrieta/Boras a favor by saying that publicly.

[jjfanec]

Or it could be the Cubs doing Arrieta/Boras a favor by saying that publicly.

 

Why would a team ever want to do Boras a favor?

 

People who dont want Arrieta are going to assume this report is bogus because it doesnt fit their narrative of Arrieta starting a rapid decline as emphasized by the Cubs not wanting him. People who want Arrieta will use this as proof he is still really good. Honestly, I am fine if we get him and fine if we dont. I want one of Arrieta, Archer, or Cobb

[Roderick]

Or it could be the Cubs doing Arrieta/Boras a favor by saying that publicly.

 

Why would a team ever want to do Boras a favor?

 

Doing Arrieta a favor then.

 

Any reason it costs more to sign Arrieta helps out the Cubs, especially if it is the Brewers doing the signing.

[tmwiese55]

Umm, to try and stay on his good side as he controls a couple very important FAs in the next few years for them. Didn't think that was too hard to grasp.

 

Don't get me wrong, I'm sure they'd have taken him back but not at the price/years, with how little it was ever talked about you have to think they were miles apart on years and money.

[superfly]

Hold on while I get my hat out.

 

http://i66.tinypic.com/qxrtz6.jpg

[tmwiese55]

That kind of stuff happens all the time. Plus we don't really know where the 'leak' came from. It could be Boras saying it and the reporter repeating it for whatever reasons, usually to stay in favor of the agent. so could be just the reporters doing favors, again this happens all time. Long story short, don't put too much stock in info that is intentionally put out there by someone, take it for what it is

[MNBrew]

For what it’s worth, this happened today:

 

I was in a food line in the Orlando airport today and noticed the older gentleman in front of me had a personalized name tag from an MLB team on his carry-on. I recognized the name (very long-time upper-level exec.) and was able to strike up a conversation. When I told him I’m a big baseball fan and specifically a real Brewers junkie, he said, “It sounds like the Brewers are going to get Arrieta.” I said, “Whoa, that’s cool,” to which he responded, “That’s what I’m hearing.”

 

The conversation continued in other directions after that, but he was quite a nice & pleasant guy.

 

Like everything, things can change quickly and/or turn out quite differently, but it’s interesting to know that Arrieta-to-MIL is a perception out there in another team’s ownership circles!

[pogokat]

For what it’s worth, this happened today:

 

I was in a food line in the Orlando airport today and noticed the older gentleman in front of me had a personalized name tag from an MLB team on his carry-on. I recognized the name (very long-time upper-level exec.) and was able to strike up a conversation. When I told him I’m a big baseball fan and specifically a real Brewers junkie, he said, “It sounds like the Brewers are going to get Arrieta.” I said, “Whoa, that’s cool,” to which he responded, “That’s what I’m hearing.”

 

The conversation continued in other directions after that, but he was quite a nice & pleasant guy.

 

Like everything, things can change quickly and/or turn out quite differently, but it’s interesting to know that Arrieta-to-MIL is a perception out there in another team’s ownership circles!

 

all the other boras clients are signing with the teams theyve been linked to all winter for the bottom end of their estimates.

 

Based on that, the Brewers are probably about to sign arrieta for like 4-5 years in the 80-100 million range

 

so that guy was throwing conventional wisdom at you