Jake Arrieta

[bill hAll Star]

I think part of the Cubs letting him walk is they've already put down a lot of their chips in 2015 and 2016 and now they do run the risk of crippling their payroll.

 

The Brewers have a window where they could spend on one of these guys and it wouldn't kill them.

 

No to trading prospects for guys like Archer. I'm not dying to do this, but I'm OK signing a guy this offseason for 4 years. The payroll opens wide up again in 4 years then when Braun and Arrieta leave and I don't think this strangles our payroll short-term, either.

 

Next off season, Shaw/Santana/Davies all hit arbitration for the first time. Those 3 alone likely increase our payroll by $10-15 million in 2019. Other guys currently in arbitration will also get increases. Guarantees salaries on Anderson/Thames go up a bit. I get that currently we project in the low 60s in 2018 at the moment. Let's say we add Arrieta at only $20 million per(will probably be closer to 25), and then add 2 relievers at $7 million per for 2 years. With increases in arbitration etc, we project around $110 million in 2019. All of a sudden, we have almost no flexibility in the 2018 offseason to make moves to improve the club. 2020 wouldn't be much better, all the arbitration costs would still be high and we'd have a number of holes to fill in the bullpen and at 1b.

 

The idea of adding Arrieta and trading for Archer and spending a bunch of money because we have a low payroll and young talent is no different from a 13 year old getting their hands on their parents credit card. We can make additions, but we need to be smart about how we do it and make good sound decisions...and definitely not overextend ourselves and waste this advantage that Stearns has created.

 

I think if Mark approves of the signing of Arrieta that he is willing to go up to $120-$130 in 2019 or 2020 if the situation arises to need one or two more relievers and then the payroll begins to clear itself out again in 2020 and 2021.

 

If Arrieta is a bust contract, I doubt that the Brewers will be "one or two relievers away" from contending in 2019 and 2020. Without Arrieta, you're probably a good/elite pitcher plus more away from being good in 2019 and 2020 anyways.

[KeithStone53151]

I think part of the Cubs letting him walk is they've already put down a lot of their chips in 2015 and 2016 and now they do run the risk of crippling their payroll.

 

The Brewers have a window where they could spend on one of these guys and it wouldn't kill them.

 

No to trading prospects for guys like Archer. I'm not dying to do this, but I'm OK signing a guy this offseason for 4 years. The payroll opens wide up again in 4 years then when Braun and Arrieta leave and I don't think this strangles our payroll short-term, either.

 

Next off season, Shaw/Santana/Davies all hit arbitration for the first time. Those 3 alone likely increase our payroll by $10-15 million in 2019. Other guys currently in arbitration will also get increases. Guarantees salaries on Anderson/Thames go up a bit. I get that currently we project in the low 60s in 2018 at the moment. Let's say we add Arrieta at only $20 million per(will probably be closer to 25), and then add 2 relievers at $7 million per for 2 years. With increases in arbitration etc, we project around $110 million in 2019. All of a sudden, we have almost no flexibility in the 2018 offseason to make moves to improve the club. 2020 wouldn't be much better, all the arbitration costs would still be high and we'd have a number of holes to fill in the bullpen and at 1b.

 

The idea of adding Arrieta and trading for Archer and spending a bunch of money because we have a low payroll and young talent is no different from a 13 year old getting their hands on their parents credit card. We can make additions, but we need to be smart about how we do it and make good sound decisions...and definitely not overextend ourselves and waste this advantage that Stearns has created.

 

I think if Mark approves of the signing of Arrieta that he is willing to go up to $120-$130 in 2019 or 2020 if the situation arises to need one or two more relievers and then the payroll begins to clear itself out again in 2020 and 2021.

 

If Arrieta is a bust contract, I doubt that the Brewers will be "one or two relievers away" from contending in 2019 and 2020. Without Arrieta, you're probably a good/elite pitcher plus more away from being good in 2019 and 2020 anyways.

 

The payroll implications are only one piece of this. I don't think Arrieta is that good of a pitcher. He had massive command issues early in his career. Even with the Cubs he's had some command issues. I feel like those issues will only get worse, and he'll get away with far fewer mistakes in the zone as his stuff gets worse. He will be 32. Haven't we learned from all our other bad SP contracts that these contracts aren't a good idea. When have we signed a FA SP to a 3 or more year deal and it worked out well for us? I can't think of one time that it's ever happened.

[bill hAll Star]

The payroll implications are only one piece of this. I don't think Arrieta is that good of a pitcher. He had massive command issues early in his career. Even with the Cubs he's had some command issues. I feel like those issues will only get worse, and he'll get away with far fewer mistakes in the zone as his stuff gets worse. He will be 32. Haven't we learned from all our other bad SP contracts that these contracts aren't a good idea. When have we signed a FA SP to a 3 or more year deal and it worked out well for us? I can't think of one time that it's ever happened.

 

Times are different right now as we have slightly more pitching depth, but I always have this response (assuming money is not an issue) with Suppan, Wolf, Lohse, Garza...who missed an opportunity? One could argue that Woodruff should've taken the ball a bit earlier this year instead of Garza, but otherwise we were generally just pitching Suppan or Lohse instead of guys like Claudio Vargas or Chris Narveson. I hated the Suppan contract but he pitched probably slightly better than Manny Parra would have if we handed him a rotation spot early.

 

I expect Arrieta's ERA/FIP to progress like 3.50 this year, 3.75, 4.00, 4.50 in a hypothetical 4-year deal, but that's probably still better than the replacement guys, even if we have better replacement guys now than we are used to. There's a chance that he is very good as well.

 

If Nelson comes back to form, Anderson remains good, Davies remains good, Woodruff pans out, Burnes is ready, and/or Hader is good, and/or Suter is truly a rotation option...then I'll deal with that issue. I'd love to have it. In that case, maybe we could trade Davies for a load of prospects to help us in the next window.

 

Chances are, though, in that list of 7 guys I just put in that above list that 2 or 3 are hurt or don't pan out. In which case, now we have 5 or 6 good pitchers with Arrieta.

[patrickgpe]

Its a contract that will look good on the front end and horrible at the back end. its the price you pay for signing any top line free agent starter. The issue with doing it in Milwaukee is that it makes the years on the back end of the contract tougher since the payroll flexibility is not at large as say the Cubs. Id do it, if the brewers can get away with 4 years.

[FVBrewerFan]

First, annual reminder there will be lots of rumors this time of year. Maybe Brewers are seriously looking at Arrieta. Maybe they're just feeling around to get a sense of what the market is, or purely playing a game of miss-direction. Most likely, they're taking a look around and making calls on many if not most FAs. Doesn't mean they're serious, just doing what every good Front Office should be doing this time of year. Never hurts to look.

 

It's not the right time for a move like this. There's way too many question marks to throw a big 4-5 year deal at a SP or anyone. A move like this should be the LAST move made when everything else looks like you're ready to compete. That way you have a better idea where to spend money. For all we know a big bat will be needed more than a SP. Plus, you also get the most bang for your buck by having that contract for all 4-5 when we're honestly competitive rather than blow the 1st couple years while still rebuilding.

[Mudville9]

Is it possible to front load the contract? Instead of a 4 year $24 mil per year, do something like a $30,28. 20, 18? Might make him more palatable towards the end of the contract and allow more flexibility and make him more tradable. If we have that much available cash this year, we should front load it as much as possible.

[bill hAll Star]

First, annual reminder there will be lots of rumors this time of year. Maybe Brewers are seriously looking at Arrieta. Maybe they're just feeling around to get a sense of what the market is, or purely playing a game of miss-direction. Most likely, they're taking a look around and making calls on many if not most FAs. Doesn't mean they're serious, just doing what every good Front Office should be doing this time of year. Never hurts to look.

 

It's not the right time for a move like this. There's way too many question marks to throw a big 4-5 year deal at a SP or anyone. A move like this should be the LAST move made when everything else looks like you're ready to compete. That way you have a better idea where to spend money. For all we know a big bat will be needed more than a SP. Plus, you also get the most bang for your buck by having that contract for all 4-5 when we're honestly competitive rather than blow the 1st couple years while still rebuilding.

 

A good GM knows where the money needs to be spent right now. If they truly think Arrieta is worth it, that means they're pretty sure that one of Woodruff/Hader and Suter/Wilkerson/Guerra are just depth guys and maybe Nelson won't be a factor.

 

We've got a bevy of good OF prospects and solid prospects up the middle. If those guys fail, then we'll be rebuilding for all of Arrieta's 4 year tenure anyways, in which case it doesn't matter much.

 

If Arrieta is a massive bust and as you predict, the need shifts...we'll have money for 1-2 more big contracts if we want after 2020 and 2021 when Braun/Thames (3 years) and Arrieta (4 years) are gone. I think that the way the salary is set up, the Brewers can probably frontload Arrieta's deal a bit if this really does happen.

[bill hAll Star]

Is it possible to front load the contract? Instead of a 4 year $24 mil per year, do something like a $30,28. 20, 18? Might make him more palatable towards the end of the contract and allow more flexibility and make him more tradable. If we have that much available cash this year, we should front load it as much as possible.

 

Yeah, the Cubs did this with Zobrist, Lester, and Heyward.

 

I wouldn't even be opposed to giving Arrieta an opt-out at 2 years if it put us over the top to win the bidding. As I've said, Arrieta can make more money in the first 2 years and go find a bigger deal somewhere else. If that happens, you get 2 good years and you get the blessing in disguise that the guy leaves when he hits his mid 30s. If he stinks, you've got less of a burden for the final 2 years (assuming a frontloaded deal).

[MadScientist]

No. Please no. Just look at his numbers:

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/a/arrieja01.shtml

 

He is not a candidate for decline, he's in the midst of it right now, and it will only accelerate. He might be serviceable next year, but after that I expect him to be in Suppan territory. I'd rather them make a run at Tyler Chatwood. He is unlikely to be the ace Arrieta once was, but I'd bet he'll be the better of the two over the next 3-4 years.

[BuckyBrewer61]

To me this just screams same old Brewers - Suppan, Wolf, Garza, Lohse - aging veteran free agent cashing in on a good year or two who’s numbers are already in decline. I had hoped years of watching these guys fall apart finally taught Mark A to resist the temptation

 

Please, no.

[KeithStone53151]

To me this just screams same old Brewers - Suppan, Wolf, Garza, Lohse - aging veteran free agent cashing in on a good year or two who’s numbers are already in decline. I had hoped years of watching these guys fall apart finally taught Mark A to resist the temptation

 

Please, no.

 

Just a note that the Wolf signing wasn't a terrible one. Wolf was solid for the first 2 years and really struggled his 3rd year. The others were clearly awful though. Wolf is the only FA pitcher i can think of that we signed to a more than 3 year deal that actually worked out...in the history of the franchise.

[patrickgpe]

I will say that Lohse over the long hall was a good signing, he had +5.5 WAR over his years in Milwaukee. He was just so bad his last year here it muddied fans thinking about his time here.

 

I agree on Wolf too, good pitcher minus that final season.

 

Singing pitchers to long term deals that are over 30 are forever risky and will result in bad results at the end of the deal.

 

I can guarantee that whoever signs Arietta will get 2 good years from him and then things will fall off because this is what happens when you sign a 32 year old to a long term deal.

[bill hAll Star]

To me this just screams same old Brewers - Suppan, Wolf, Garza, Lohse - aging veteran free agent cashing in on a good year or two who’s numbers are already in decline. I had hoped years of watching these guys fall apart finally taught Mark A to resist the temptation

 

Please, no.

 

Just a note that the Wolf signing wasn't a terrible one. Wolf was solid for the first 2 years and really struggled his 3rd year. The others were clearly awful though. Wolf is the only FA pitcher i can think of that we signed to a more than 3 year deal that actually worked out...in the history of the franchise.

 

In Jeff Suppan's worst year (2009), our #4 and #5 starters had a 6.36 and 6.38 ERA and we had basically nothing in the minors ready to go.

 

In 2015 (Lohse falls off cliff and Garza begins to tumble), our top pitchers that rose from the minors were Taylor Jungmann (good year, not an MLB pitcher), Mike Fiers, and Wily Peralta. I think we'd all agree that those guys weren't clogging up the rotation from a truckload of good MLB talent.

 

Sometimes you overpay players when the options behind them aren't good. They were bad contracts by value but the only option if we didn't spend big bucks on Jeff Suppan or Kyle Lohse would be to...overpay a different pitcher, because we had none.

 

Let's stop looking at what a player was worth and let's weigh what a player provides within the parameters of a 25 man roster.

 

If the Brewers theoretically had a 90 win team with a hold in the rotation but a $20 million payroll...Would you pay Clayton Kershaw $80 million for one year to join the Brewers? I would. He could win the Cy Young and not be worth that money.

 

There is risk in signing someone like Arrieta or Lynn for 4 years, but I also don't like just trashing the idea of signing guys because they'll be overpaid. We only have 25 roster spots and a lot of guys are already locked into lower salaries for the next several years, even with arbitration values.

 

Kyle Lohse, Matt Garza, Jeff Suppan, and Randy Wolf may all crack the back end of the top 20 pitchers that the Brewers have had in the past 20 years.

[FVBrewerFan]

First, annual reminder there will be lots of rumors this time of year. Maybe Brewers are seriously looking at Arrieta. Maybe they're just feeling around to get a sense of what the market is, or purely playing a game of miss-direction. Most likely, they're taking a look around and making calls on many if not most FAs. Doesn't mean they're serious, just doing what every good Front Office should be doing this time of year. Never hurts to look.

 

It's not the right time for a move like this. There's way too many question marks to throw a big 4-5 year deal at a SP or anyone. A move like this should be the LAST move made when everything else looks like you're ready to compete. That way you have a better idea where to spend money. For all we know a big bat will be needed more than a SP. Plus, you also get the most bang for your buck by having that contract for all 4-5 when we're honestly competitive rather than blow the 1st couple years while still rebuilding.

 

A good GM knows where the money needs to be spent right now. If they truly think Arrieta is worth it, that means they're pretty sure that one of Woodruff/Hader and Suter/Wilkerson/Guerra are just depth guys and maybe Nelson won't be a factor.

 

We've got a bevy of good OF prospects and solid prospects up the middle. If those guys fail, then we'll be rebuilding for all of Arrieta's 4 year tenure anyways, in which case it doesn't matter much.

 

If Arrieta is a massive bust and as you predict, the need shifts...we'll have money for 1-2 more big contracts if we want after 2020 and 2021 when Braun/Thames (3 years) and Arrieta (4 years) are gone. I think that the way the salary is set up, the Brewers can probably frontload Arrieta's deal a bit if this really does happen.

 

I didn't predict Arieta would be a massive bust. My point is who cares if he's really good this year? If they truly think Woodruff, Nelson, etc. won't be a factor then just adding Arieta won't make a difference anyhow. Just throwing money out there because we have it wouldn't be disastrous for 2018, but he's not going to sign for one year , of course.

 

Just look at the state of the rotation. Other than Davies, we know what he is, everyone else is a question. Adding a #3ish type starter does what for this team in 2018? I mean, even adding him everything single thing would have to go right for this roster to be a WS contender.

 

Finally dumped Garza's salary, still stuck with Braun's for three more years. Let's just wait until it really is time to go for it before we throw more big contracts around.

[MrTPlush]

Is it possible to front load the contract? Instead of a 4 year $24 mil per year, do something like a $30,28. 20, 18? Might make him more palatable towards the end of the contract and allow more flexibility and make him more tradable. If we have that much available cash this year, we should front load it as much as possible.

 

Financially front loading is a poor choice for quite a few reasons...simply put.

[bill hAll Star]

First, annual reminder there will be lots of rumors this time of year. Maybe Brewers are seriously looking at Arrieta. Maybe they're just feeling around to get a sense of what the market is, or purely playing a game of miss-direction. Most likely, they're taking a look around and making calls on many if not most FAs. Doesn't mean they're serious, just doing what every good Front Office should be doing this time of year. Never hurts to look.

 

It's not the right time for a move like this. There's way too many question marks to throw a big 4-5 year deal at a SP or anyone. A move like this should be the LAST move made when everything else looks like you're ready to compete. That way you have a better idea where to spend money. For all we know a big bat will be needed more than a SP. Plus, you also get the most bang for your buck by having that contract for all 4-5 when we're honestly competitive rather than blow the 1st couple years while still rebuilding.

 

A good GM knows where the money needs to be spent right now. If they truly think Arrieta is worth it, that means they're pretty sure that one of Woodruff/Hader and Suter/Wilkerson/Guerra are just depth guys and maybe Nelson won't be a factor.

 

We've got a bevy of good OF prospects and solid prospects up the middle. If those guys fail, then we'll be rebuilding for all of Arrieta's 4 year tenure anyways, in which case it doesn't matter much.

 

If Arrieta is a massive bust and as you predict, the need shifts...we'll have money for 1-2 more big contracts if we want after 2020 and 2021 when Braun/Thames (3 years) and Arrieta (4 years) are gone. I think that the way the salary is set up, the Brewers can probably frontload Arrieta's deal a bit if this really does happen.

 

I didn't predict Arieta would be a massive bust. My point is who cares if he's really good this year? If they truly think Woodruff, Nelson, etc. won't be a factor then just adding Arieta won't make a difference anyhow. Just throwing money out there because we have it wouldn't be disastrous for 2018, but he's not going to sign for one year , of course.

 

Just look at the state of the rotation. Other than Davies, we know what he is, everyone else is a question. Adding a #3ish type starter does what for this team in 2018? I mean, even adding him everything single thing would have to go right for this roster to be a WS contender.

 

Finally dumped Garza's salary, still stuck with Braun's for three more years. Let's just wait until it really is time to go for it before we throw more big contracts around.

 

Those salaries (Braun's will a bit right now) did not hinder us from anything. Garza's salary rotted while the team rebuilt.

 

It's a differing opinion of the window. For me, our strength is probably a good movement of minor league players for the next decade. Not the Astros or Cubs; think Cardinals. We always will have a good player waiting. I'm OK spending now to be an 87-92 win team for several years.

 

I just don't think the elite elite talent is there. What's going to change in 2 years? We'll likely have a better version of Brinson/Arcia/maybe Santana/Phillips but we don't know if Shaw/Knebel/Thames even Braun will repeat this year's performance?

 

Like I said, if we had our version or Danny Salazar, Corey Kluber, and Carlos Carrasco all in AA right now, by all means, wait 2 years. We don't.

 

For me, this team has a 10-15 player base that will make it easy to win 80 games for the next decade (I'm guessing and projecting the minors system after 5 years from now, but we have great depth right now). After that, we need to find the other few elite players to get to the playoffs several times. They aren't waiting in our system other than maybe Brinson or Hader.

 

I don't see a reason to wait. Because if we sign Arrieta now, the contract will be nearly over when you are "ready." So then we can just sign another big dollar player.

 

Stearns would be an absolute magician and would win GM of the decade if he turned the current core into a perennial 90+ win team without dealing the farm or some big signings.

 

I just don't understand what you want to "wait and see" on. If Brinson, Phillips, etc. are not what we thought, then we'll hit 2020 with 2 years left on Arrieta's deal needing to rebuild. If those guys are all really that good, then Arrieta is an overpaid, yet good MLB pitcher helping us try to win a championship. There will still be plenty of time to sign more overpriced free agents when Braun's deal ends and Arrieta's does.

[bill hAll Star]

Is it possible to front load the contract? Instead of a 4 year $24 mil per year, do something like a $30,28. 20, 18? Might make him more palatable towards the end of the contract and allow more flexibility and make him more tradable. If we have that much available cash this year, we should front load it as much as possible.

 

Financially front loading is a poor choice for quite a few reasons...simply put.

 

Really? Do you think the Cubs regret their "over the top" free agent signings (Lester/Zobrist/Heyward) being much cheaper now as they are on the decline?

[KCBrewerfan34]

Please don't compare Arrietta to Wolf, Suppan, Garza Lohse etc..... Good grief

[trwi7]

Please no, I can't think of a single offseason move I would dislike more than this one. I'm not overly concerned by us showing interest, ideally it's simply an effort to drive up price.

 

Well, we're apparently interested in Lance Lynn too and that would be worse than Arrieta to me. Either would be terrible though.

[reillymcshane]

I expect the Brewers to add at least one starting pitcher. That means we should be checking in on every guy who we think can help us. I don't think any player is a 'must have' right now. That allows us to wait and see how the market materializes.

[KeithStone53151]

Is it possible to front load the contract? Instead of a 4 year $24 mil per year, do something like a $30,28. 20, 18? Might make him more palatable towards the end of the contract and allow more flexibility and make him more tradable. If we have that much available cash this year, we should front load it as much as possible.

 

Financially front loading is a poor choice for quite a few reasons...simply put.

 

I believe the MLBPA will help players in determining the current value of their deal to help figure out which offer is best. Not much different than helping a player determine tax implications at the state level based on the team they sign with. An easy example being a 3/30 deal with 15-10-5 is going to be more valuable than 5-10-15. It's possible you could entice a player to take slightly less overall dollars by frontloading, but I tend to agree with plush here. Very few cases does it make sense to frontload a deal, and having a low payroll currently that we expect to increase isn't one of them. It might make more sense if MLB had a hard cap like the NFL and we were trying to squeeze under a cap, but it doesn't.

[nate82]

Is it possible to front load the contract? Instead of a 4 year $24 mil per year, do something like a $30,28. 20, 18? Might make him more palatable towards the end of the contract and allow more flexibility and make him more tradable. If we have that much available cash this year, we should front load it as much as possible.

 

Financially front loading is a poor choice for quite a few reasons...simply put.

 

For whom?

 

For the team financially front loading can be bad but for the player financially front loading a contract is actually better due to time value of money.

 

If you expect to have a higher team salary in the future front loading a contract might be a better idea for a team. For example if the Brewers expect to have a higher team salary in 2020 than they do now front loading a contract like Arrieta would be a wise move as it will save you space on that salary then.

 

Simply put your statement is rather vague.

[Brewcrewin07]

Please no, I can't think of a single offseason move I would dislike more than this one. I'm not overly concerned by us showing interest, ideally it's simply an effort to drive up price.

 

Well, we're apparently interested in Lance Lynn too and that would be worse than Arrieta to me. Either would be terrible though.

 

No offense to you at all Trwi, because I see lots here that do the same all the time, but are there ever any free agents(other than minor low priced guys), that the Brewers could sign, that no one would hate?? I mean, they HAVE to add payroll anyway, signing a guy like Lynn or Arrieta doesn't cost them prospects, and most of all, why does it matter?? It's not our $$?? That's the thing I always get a kick out of when I read various message boards for state teams(packers, brewers, bucks), no one ever wants the teams to sign high priced free agents, because it's like they are offended, that someone would spend THEIR $$ like that. I always get a kick out of that.

[Warning Track Power]

No offense to you at all Trwi, because I see lots here that do the same all the time, but are there ever any free agents(other than minor low priced guys), that the Brewers could sign, that no one would hate?? I mean, they HAVE to add payroll anyway, signing a guy like Lynn or Arrieta doesn't cost them prospects, and most of all, why does it matter?? It's not our $$?? That's the thing I always get a kick out of when I read various message boards for state teams(packers, brewers, bucks), no one ever wants the teams to sign high priced free agents, because it's like they are offended, that someone would spend THEIR $$ like that. I always get a kick out of that.

This is an interesting observation. I see this as well and its the opposite for the Packers. Fans of the Packers scream about Ted Thompson never signing FAs and fans of the Brewers scream when Melvin/Attanasio actually signed FAs. It's weird to see fans of both teams respond so differently to these FA signings.

[trwi7]

I mean, they HAVE to add payroll anyway

 

No they don't.