Jake Arrieta

[MrTPlush]

One side thought I had for Arrieta, it might make sense for him to sit out a couple months and take a 1 year $15-20ish million deal starting in June from a team that loses a starter. Saves him some innings, lets him play for a guaranteed contender, and gives him a chance to reset his market for the 2018-19 class. He'll have the added selling point in 18-19 that he only pitched 130 innings instead of 220 like Kershaw/Keuchel. And more post season success would be hugely beneficial.

 

No, just no. Arrieta is going to do just fine. Not bad enough to even consider risking a down half season. That would be a disaster. This makes very like sense to me.

 

Then why not sign already?

 

Ask him. Just because it has taken this long make me really really doubt such a deal is possible. Arrieta probably wants Darvish like money. Darvish did just fine and it took him forever.

[bill hAll Star]

Ask him. Just because it has taken this long make me really really doubt such a deal is possible. Arrieta probably wants Darvish like money. Darvish did just fine and it took him forever.

 

I generally tend to agree with your take, but one of his issues is that all of the big markets are out.

 

Maybe he can talk the Brewers or Twins into near-Darvish money, but unless one of the big markets jumps back in thinking they've got an opportunity here, the Red Sox, Yankees, Dodgers, Cubs, Giants, Angels, Rangers, Nats (though they're rumored to still be in it) all are either afraid of the luxury tax limit this year or are trying like heck to get under it to go bonkers next offseason.

 

The Cubs were the one team that had a slot for a big contract pitcher if that was their goal and they used it.

 

The Rangers and Angels were listed and technically have room, but the Rangers seem to be sitting it out right now anyways and the Angels' room is razor thin if they want to go $20-25 million on Arrieta and also add other players.

 

This could all change in a week. Maybe a bunch of these teams jump back in and go over the limit again. For now, though, it appears they don't want to. So Arrieta can't really create much of a bidding war.

[StCroixCtyBrewer]

Twins just signed Anibal Sanchez to an MLB deal. Does this potentially signal that they’re pulling back on Arrieta?

[NOMAAM]

Twins just signed Anibal Sanchez to an MLB deal. Does this potentially signal that they’re pulling back on Arrieta?

 

I put it on par with the brewers sign Miley:)

[Warning Track Power]

https://www.fanragsports.com/mlb/inside-baseball-where-will-remaining-mlb-free-agents-go/

 

Heyman predicts Arrieta to Brewers. Has Brewers in on Cobb, Lynn and Lucroy.

[Warning Track Power]

Twins just signed Anibal Sanchez to an MLB deal. Does this potentially signal that they’re pulling back on Arrieta?

 

I put it on par with the brewers sign Miley:)

Except it's a $2.5 million Major League deal. As I recall, Miley is a Minor League deal.

[NOMAAM]

Twins just signed Anibal Sanchez to an MLB deal. Does this potentially signal that they’re pulling back on Arrieta?

 

I put it on par with the brewers sign Miley:)

Except it's a $2.5 million Major League deal. As I recall, Miley is a Minor League deal.

 

They both stink & should not impact a team from adding another FA arm. Not sure why Sanchez got a major league deal he's been really bad for 3 years.

[A Swing and A Drive]

Arrieta for 4 years $88 million

 

OR

 

Cobb for 4 years $60 million

 

 

Only $4.5M more a season for a #1 starter, instead of a #3?

 

Sign me up for Jake Arrieta.

 

(although for the record I think a team will offer him more than that.)

[TJseven7]

Cobb isn't a 3.

[DR28]

Cobb isn't a 3.

 

Correct, he's a 2.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Cobb isn't a 3.

 

Correct, he's a 2.

 

If he get's his change-up back, he's a #1

[DocLuna7]

Arrieta for 4 years $88 million

 

OR

 

Cobb for 4 years $60 million

 

 

Only $4.5M more a season for a #1 starter, instead of a #3?

 

Sign me up for Jake Arrieta.

 

(although for the record I think a team will offer him more than that.)

 

What makes you say that Cobb is a number three?

[DR28]

Cobb isn't a 3.

 

Correct, he's a 2.

 

If he get's his change-up back, he's a #1

 

I can see that.

 

We need to make Cobb signing happen!

[DR28]

Cobb isn't a 3.

 

Correct, he's a 2.

 

If he get's his change-up back, he's a #1

 

I cant stop thinking about what Cobb would do in the NL.

 

Anderson

Cobb

Davies

Chacin

Woodruff

Nelson being ahead of schedule

 

I REALLY love this rotation! Please make it happen Stearns.

[badger3034]

And what if Cobb doesn't get his change up back? I'm still under the impression, as a previous poster stated, an additional $5 million a year for the better overall pitcher, not based on one pitch, is the better investment. If Cobb weren't to get his best pitch back, he'd probably be someone to regress quicker than most, not even considering his injury factor. I don't understand why you guys are so against spending a little cash, the owner is the one who dictates his budget, and no one even knows exactly the lengths he's willing to go. If he was really attached to this franchise, don't you think he'd be willing to pony up to try to get to a world series? It's all hypothetical, regardless. I think it just comes down to who you think is the better pitcher.

 

I'll just ask a question, if Arrietta and Cobb are at their best, who is the better pitcher? Now factor in the difference of $4.5 million a year, which is the better value? Don't forget the context of the question included that both pitchers are at their best, with no injuries.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

And what if Cobb doesn't get his change up back? I'm still under the impression, as a previous poster stated, an additional $5 million a year for the better overall pitcher, not based on one pitch, is the better investment. If Cobb weren't to get his best pitch back, he'd probably be someone to regress quicker than most, not even considering his injury factor. I don't understand why you guys are so against spending a little cash, the owner is the one who dictates his budget, and no one even knows exactly the lengths he's willing to go. If he was really attached to this franchise, don't you think he'd be willing to pony up to try to get to a world series? It's all hypothetical, regardless. I think it just comes down to who you think is the better pitcher.

 

I'll just ask a question, if Arrietta and Cobb are at their best, who is the better pitcher? Now factor in the difference of $4.5 million a year, which is the better value? Don't forget the context of the question included that both pitchers are at their best, with no injuries.

 

I'd be in favor of either one. The milage on Arrieta's arm is worrisome, but he keeps himself in terrific shape, and is a bulldog on the mound. I like both of them much, much better than Lynn.

[badger3034]

And what if Cobb doesn't get his change up back? I'm still under the impression, as a previous poster stated, an additional $5 million a year for the better overall pitcher, not based on one pitch, is the better investment. If Cobb weren't to get his best pitch back, he'd probably be someone to regress quicker than most, not even considering his injury factor. I don't understand why you guys are so against spending a little cash, the owner is the one who dictates his budget, and no one even knows exactly the lengths he's willing to go. If he was really attached to this franchise, don't you think he'd be willing to pony up to try to get to a world series? It's all hypothetical, regardless. I think it just comes down to who you think is the better pitcher.

 

I'll just ask a question, if Arrietta and Cobb are at their best, who is the better pitcher? Now factor in the difference of $4.5 million a year, which is the better value? Don't forget the context of the question included that both pitchers are at their best, with no injuries.

 

I'd be in favor of either one. The milage on Arrieta's arm is worrisome, but he keeps himself in terrific shape, and is a bulldog on the mound. I like both of them much, much better than Lynn.

 

Wasn't the question, which one would you prefer? Since the Brewers only have a chance at one of them, which one would you prefer at their best, with no injuries?

[anglotiger]

I'll just ask a question, if Arrietta and Cobb are at their best, who is the better pitcher? Now factor in the difference of $4.5 million a year, which is the better value? Don't forget the context of the question included that both pitchers are at their best, with no injuries.

 

Sure. If Arrieta is at his best (which is questionable due to the Cubs seemingly lukewarm attempts to resign him) and if he is willing to sign for only $4.5M aav more than Cobb (which, with Boras as his agent, may not be the case).

 

But honestly I'm not sure that either of those are true. Of course, the Brewers' FO may think differently about the first of those...

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Wasn't the question, which one would you prefer? Since the Brewers only have a chance at one of them, which one would you prefer at their best, with no injuries?

 

That's the problem. You are removing variables, and you can't do that in the real world. Yes, if money, age and arm wear wasn't an issue, I'd take Arrieta. But then, if those weren't issues, he would have resigned with the Cubs long ago. Fact is, they are, and Cobb has him beat in all those variables. He is going to be cheaper, he is nearly 2 years younger, and he doesn't have near the milage on his arm.

 

I mean, what are you trying to get at? In a vacuum, Arrieta is the better pitcher. But life doesn't operate in a vacuum.

[badger3034]

Wasn't the question, which one would you prefer? Since the Brewers only have a chance at one of them, which one would you prefer at their best, with no injuries?

 

That's the problem. You are removing variables, and you can't do that in the real world. Yes, if money, age and arm wear wasn't an issue, I'd take Arrieta. But then, if those weren't issues, he would have resigned with the Cubs long ago. Fact is, they are, and Cobb has him beat in all those variables. He is going to be cheaper, he is nearly 2 years younger, and he doesn't have near the milage on his arm.

 

I mean, what are you trying to get at? In a vacuum, Arrieta is the better pitcher. But life doesn't operate in a vacuum.

 

Arrietta being 1 year older doesn't really seem to move the needle for that variable. Cobb having 2 TJ also seems to push it towards Arrietta with how much he's pitched over the years. Also, Arrietta is a better overall pitcher when he's on. The only thing going for Cobb in this scenario is the money, and that he could get his change up back.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Wasn't the question, which one would you prefer? Since the Brewers only have a chance at one of them, which one would you prefer at their best, with no injuries?

 

That's the problem. You are removing variables, and you can't do that in the real world. Yes, if money, age and arm wear wasn't an issue, I'd take Arrieta. But then, if those weren't issues, he would have resigned with the Cubs long ago. Fact is, they are, and Cobb has him beat in all those variables. He is going to be cheaper, he is nearly 2 years younger, and he doesn't have near the milage on his arm.

 

I mean, what are you trying to get at? In a vacuum, Arrieta is the better pitcher. But life doesn't operate in a vacuum.

 

Arrietta being 1 year older doesn't really seem to move the needle for that variable. Cobb having 2 TJ also seems to push it towards Arrietta with how much he's pitched over the years. Also, Arrietta is a better overall pitcher when he's on. The only thing going for Cobb in this scenario is the money, and that he could get his change up back.

 

Arrieta is 19 months older. So yes, that does make a difference. Cobb has had 2 Tj surgeries? I thought it was only one. Do you have a source that indicates he's had 2? I agree that Arrieta is better when "on".

 

Dude, I am not anti Arrieta. I like him a lot. He's had a ton of success, and I think he's got a HUGE chip on his shoulder, especially against the Cubs. Depending on what he ends up signing for, he may very well have the better value. I just think Cobb is a solid choice as well.

[brewcrewdue80]

Let's put this to light. Cobb's best pitch was off due to TJ return injury. What is Arrieta's excuse for losing his best pitch? Decline in velocity? control?

Value is Cobb price and the likelihood that he earns his contract. Arrieta is going to be overpaid no matter the deal.

 

Cobb puts any year with 30+ starts he is exceeding his contract. Arrieta will have to put 30+ starts yearly with better results to be worth his contract.

my feeling is, the lost velocity ruined his best pitch along with confidence to throw it. He can never be who he was 2 years ago without that velocity returning. Unlikely at his age.

[JohnBriggs12]

Let's put this to light. Cobb's best pitch was off due to TJ return injury. What is Arrieta's excuse for losing his best pitch? Decline in velocity? control?

Value is Cobb price and the likelihood that he earns his contract. Arrieta is going to be overpaid no matter the deal.

 

Cobb puts any year with 30+ starts he is exceeding his contract. Arrieta will have to put 30+ starts yearly with better results to be worth his contract.

my feeling is, the lost velocity ruined his best pitch along with confidence to throw it. He can never be who he was 2 years ago without that velocity returning. Unlikely at his age.

 

I heard in the Chicago media last year that Arrieta's velocity was off due to a slight mechanical issue at the start of 2017. He threw it better in the 2nd half. That could have been due to the monstrous amount of innings he logged in 2015 and 2016 (almost 460 between regular season and postseason).

 

If they can get Arrieta to take a 4 year deal, then I'm not so concerned, but Cobb seems to be the less riskier move.

[TJseven7]

And what if Cobb doesn't get his change up back? I'm still under the impression, as a previous poster stated, an additional $5 million a year for the better overall pitcher, not based on one pitch, is the better investment. If Cobb weren't to get his best pitch back, he'd probably be someone to regress quicker than most, not even considering his injury factor. I don't understand why you guys are so against spending a little cash, the owner is the one who dictates his budget, and no one even knows exactly the lengths he's willing to go. If he was really attached to this franchise, don't you think he'd be willing to pony up to try to get to a world series? It's all hypothetical, regardless. I think it just comes down to who you think is the better pitcher.

 

I'll just ask a question, if Arrietta and Cobb are at their best, who is the better pitcher? Now factor in the difference of $4.5 million a year, which is the better value? Don't forget the context of the question included that both pitchers are at their best, with no injuries.

 

Well we just saw what happens when cobb doesn't have that pitch... hes a 3.66. He has other breaking stuff to use and increase. Makes him a davies level guy which is a mid 3 to low 2.

 

The question left to ask is what's more likely. The killer breaking ball coming back for Cobb or the pounding Arrieta took not effecting him over the next 4-5 years. I worry less about a guy who started off as a 3.0 era guy who stays constant than a 4.5 era guy who finds another gear for 4 years.

 

Same thing goes for Anderson and Nelson. I love having them for the next 3-4 years but I'm going to be leery of their next contract. Guys like Davies and Cobb can just pitch and I expect them to decline more favorably.

 

We also dont know the deals yet. Arrieta could still want 110/5. Cobb 60/4. Thats not as simple as 7 mil more for a possible 1. Thats an extra year and cobb is a possible 1 himself.

 

In the next 3 years nelson anderson cobb could be 1 level guys who can hold their own vs ace heavy staffs. While arrieta could be worth his deal, cobb could get his change and exceed his deal. I feel any savings coupled with upside is something small markets HAVE to risk.

[jonescm128]

And what if Cobb doesn't get his change up back? I'm still under the impression, as a previous poster stated, an additional $5 million a year for the better overall pitcher, not based on one pitch, is the better investment. If Cobb weren't to get his best pitch back, he'd probably be someone to regress quicker than most, not even considering his injury factor. I don't understand why you guys are so against spending a little cash, the owner is the one who dictates his budget, and no one even knows exactly the lengths he's willing to go. If he was really attached to this franchise, don't you think he'd be willing to pony up to try to get to a world series? It's all hypothetical, regardless. I think it just comes down to who you think is the better pitcher.

 

I'll just ask a question, if Arrietta and Cobb are at their best, who is the better pitcher? Now factor in the difference of $4.5 million a year, which is the better value? Don't forget the context of the question included that both pitchers are at their best, with no injuries.

 

Well we just saw what happens when cobb doesn't have that pitch... hes a 3.66. He has other breaking stuff to use and increase. Makes him a davies level guy which is a mid 3 to low 2.

 

The question left to ask is what's more likely. The killer breaking ball coming back for Cobb or the pounding Arrieta took not effecting him over the next 4-5 years. I worry less about a guy who started off as a 3.0 era guy who stays constant than a 4.5 era guy who finds another gear for 4 years.

 

Same thing goes for Anderson and Nelson. I love having them for the next 3-4 years but I'm going to be leery of their next contract. Guys like Davies and Cobb can just pitch and I expect them to decline more favorably.

 

We also dont know the deals yet. Arrieta could still want 110/5. Cobb 60/4. Thats not as simple as 7 mil more for a possible 1. Thats an extra year and cobb is a possible 1 himself.

 

In the next 3 years nelson anderson cobb could be 1 level guys who can hold their own vs ace heavy staffs. While arrieta could be worth his deal, cobb could get his change and exceed his deal. I feel any savings coupled with upside is something small markets HAVE to risk.

 

We could do this all day but let's be honest, I can count on one hand the number of pitchers in the league that are sure things. Everyone else has questions. We can all agree that both Cobb and Arrietta will both improve the rotation greatly and that is what the Brewers need to be doing. They already improved the bullpen and the offense/defense and have added rotation depth. Either signing would be great....I mean, it's not our money.