Jake Arrieta

[DR28]

"Red flags" is really getting overblown IMO. Did anybody happen to watch him pitch in the postseason the past couple years or were we all too busy admiring our wild card banner in the outfield? Sure, there is risk involved at the back end of the contract, as there is with almost anybody we'd sign over 27-28 years old. Arrieta's "down" season last year was nearly as good as any season Nelson has had in the majors, if not as good. I think there needs to be a bit of perspective as to what we're signing sometimes. Who was the last pitcher Milwaukee had that was even comperable to what Arrieta has accomplished in his career?

 

Gallardo wasn't. Sheets? Even he might be suspect. And that was a decade ago. We haven't had a guy like Arrieta as far back as I can remember, and i'm almost 30 years old.

 

Is it too much to hand out a 5/100 or 6/120 type of contract to Jake Arrieta? It sounds like a ton of payroll, but no, no it really is not. That is what the going market rate is. A healthy Nelson would probably command a large deal too if he were a FA. Would I rather have ponied up 6/140 to try and get Darvish instead? Maybe. But on the other hand the intangibles that Arrieta brings far outweigh the diva mentality Darvish can have. Can anybody place a monetary value on hard work, being a great teammate, and work ethic? That's the main question that needs to be answered at this point with Jake as to whether it's too much money or not. Everybody seems to be all gung ho about great DJ is at tweaking pitchers that come here, why wouldn't he find something to tweak Arrieta as well?

 

DILLY DILLY!!

 

Let's add Arrieta, hold onto Santana and see what happens!

 

Arrieta

Anderson

Davies

Chacin

Woodruff

 

Cain

Yelich

Braun

Shaw

Santana

Villar

Pina

Arcia

 

That is a good rotation and lineup!

[brewmann04]

he did pitcher better in the second half and much better in the playoffs that YU

[tmwiese55]

He's also a guy that came out of nowhwere to have a ridiculous year at age 29 and has taken a major step back each year since and was rocked for the whole first half last year. To me out of nowhere at an old age guys are the most likely regression candidates, and he is now 32. Sure he'd likely be our best guy this year but he also might just be a 3.5-4 era guy, which of course is fine, but not worth 25 mil per year and a good chance he could be on the lower end of that or worse in the last 2-3 years of the deal. There's a chance if his regression continues that Woodruff could end up with similar numbers for 500K. And we're now on years and years of early 30s players getting huge deals and then regressing for whatever reasons (normal age, not working as hard since they have their big payday in the bank, etc). Or of course he could be a workout warrior and keep producing at 3.5 or better. But you have to weigh all that into the decision. I hope for a 4 year max with that 4th some kind of option. But I don't see it happening and I certainly don't want to go 6 years.

[SandyTolan]

If Arrieta had an opt out and used it - that means he did really well. The Brewers would then be able to recoup any draft pick simply by giving him a qualifying offer. In fact, it would be a better pick than what we gave up (I think qualifying offer picks are at the end of the 1st round - but I might be wrong). We'd only be giving up a 3rd or 4th round pick to sign Arrieta.

 

From what I understand, players can only generate one qualifying offer and hence draft pick for their entire career. So the Brewers couldn't do a QO and get a draft pick for Arrieta, since he would have already been through that. BUT if he would agree to 2/$49.5M, with say 30 upfront and an opt-out after, then the Brewers would get the draft pick. Doesn't sound like that's very likely, though.

[MadThinker88]

If Arrieta had an opt out and used it - that means he did really well. The Brewers would then be able to recoup any draft pick simply by giving him a qualifying offer. In fact, it would be a better pick than what we gave up (I think qualifying offer picks are at the end of the 1st round - but I might be wrong). We'd only be giving up a 3rd or 4th round pick to sign Arrieta.

 

From what I understand, players can only generate one qualifying offer and hence draft pick for their entire career. So the Brewers couldn't do a QO and get a draft pick for Arrieta, since he would have already been through that. BUT if he would agree to 2/$49.5M, with say 30 upfront and an opt-out after, then the Brewers would get the draft pick. Doesn't sound like that's very likely, though.

 

CORRECT (part in bold).

 

This was a huge change with the QO system and the current CBA that was agreed to.

Since teams were valuing higher draft picks (& the slotted bonus money), the MLBPA did not want to see the same players get impacted multiple times while other players never had a cost association.

 

Since Jake got a QO from the Cubs this off season, he never has to worry about a QO again...

[brewcrewdue80]

How about this, Jake?

 

1.$24 mill

2.$22 mill with a player option

3.$20 mill

4.$18 mill

5.$16 mill with $5 mill team buyout

 

Seems like a can't lose from both sides?

 

Well since the Agent39 post shows he demanded 26.5mil a year from the Cubs, This is about 30million short overall and 6.5million short on just through his player option years.

 

You meet him halfway at 25mil per 5/125 with the player option It probably needs to be 27,26, 24, 24, 19 written your way above.

 

It's terrible deal regardless for Milwaukee unless it leads to WS in first 2 years before opting out on account of his pitching.(We can win a WS and he stinks because the O/Nelson/Anderson whomever really wins it for us)

 

Lynn and Cobb are far safer bets for far less money.

[bill hAll Star]

Here is why I think this is the best time for the Brewers to spend on a pitcher, if they ever do.

 

Let's just say Arrieta gets a 5/$125 deal with an opt-out early in it. Plug in Lynn or Cobb for less if Arrieta doesn't work.

 

Reason 1 for signing a free agent now: None of the heavy hitters are bidding now that the Cubs have hit the threshold for Darvish. All of the big hitters are sitting this out at the lux tax threshold which is deflating prices and giving the Brewers a fighting chance.

 

Reason 2 for signing a free agent right now: If it blows up, the damage is mostly done by the time it matters (the next window after a retool/rebuild).

 

Reason 3 for signing a free agent right now: There are not a large amount of Brewers that I see needing money for in 2021/2022. A lot of contributors are late-prime guys like Shaw, Knebel, Thames, Pina, Anderson, Nelson. A lot of these guys are probably bigger risks than Arrieta if they are even effective by they hit their age ~32 free agency as guys like Knebel and Shaw will.

 

Here are the ways it could play out:

 

Scenario A: FA pitcher is great, current Brewer crop is great: Good. You took a good risk. Even if he struggles in the last year or two of his contract, you took a shot in a competitive window.

 

Scenario B: FA pitcher is great, current Brewer crop is a bust: You can probably trade the FA pitcher. You'll have a 2-3 year window to wait it out and find the right trade as the Brewers will be retooling.

 

Scenario C: FA pitcher is a bust, current Brewer crop is great: This is the bad one. Maybe you can't sign the reliever to get you over the top next year. Also, not signing the FA this offseason means you probably are just saving that money to take on the next Arrieta. Of course it could be used for a bunch of smaller deals, but you could just as easily miss on another big acquisition. Also, since we didn't go for Archer or Stroman, at least we know that Burnes or Peralta are still there as other wild cards to get us over the top.

 

Scenario D: FA pitcher is a bust, current Brewer crop is a bust: We'll be retooling in 2019 and 2020 and will be selling off the Shaw/Knebel/Santana types while hoping that Hiura, Hader, Burnes can get it done in the next window. Cain and FA pitcher will be on the books for 2021 and 2022, but otherwise long term salary is malleable again when we try again.

 

I know it would be bad to sign a guy just to sign someone given all of the above here, but I do think this is the time if there is one. If not this year, then next (but FA is much more complicated next year).

[Point Beer Is Best]

If Arrieta had an opt out and used it - that means he did really well. The Brewers would then be able to recoup any draft pick simply by giving him a qualifying offer. In fact, it would be a better pick than what we gave up (I think qualifying offer picks are at the end of the 1st round - but I might be wrong). We'd only be giving up a 3rd or 4th round pick to sign Arrieta.

 

From what I understand, players can only generate one qualifying offer and hence draft pick for their entire career. So the Brewers couldn't do a QO and get a draft pick for Arrieta, since he would have already been through that. BUT if he would agree to 2/$49.5M, with say 30 upfront and an opt-out after, then the Brewers would get the draft pick. Doesn't sound like that's very likely, though.

 

CORRECT (part in bold).

 

This was a huge change with the QO system and the current CBA that was agreed to.

Since teams were valuing higher draft picks (& the slotted bonus money), the MLBPA did not want to see the same players get impacted multiple times while other players never had a cost association.

 

Since Jake got a QO from the Cubs this off season, he never has to worry about a QO again...

 

And since he was traded mid season, if Darvish opts out after two years, that means the Cubs could offer the QO and receive a draft pick.

[tmwiese55]

Here is why I think this is the best time for the Brewers to spend on a pitcher, if they ever do.

 

Let's just say Arrieta gets a 5/$125 deal with an opt-out early in it. Plug in Lynn or Cobb

 

Reason 1 for signing a free agent now: None of the heavy hitters are bidding now that the Cubs have hit the threshold for Darvish. All of the big hitters are sitting this out at the lux tax threshold which is deflating prices and giving the Brewers a fighting chance.

 

Reason 2 for signing a free agent right now: If it blows up, the damage is mostly done by the time it matters (the next window after a retool/rebuild).

 

Reason 3 for signing a free agent right now: There are not a large amount of Brewers that I see needing money for in 2021/2022. A lot of contributors are late-prime guys like Shaw, Knebel, Thames, Pina, Anderson, Nelson. A lot of these guys are probably bigger risks than Arrieta if they are even effective by they hit their age ~32 free agency as guys like Knebel and Shaw will.

 

Here are the ways it could play out:

 

Scenario A: FA pitcher is great, current Brewer crop is great: Good. You took a good risk. Even if he struggles in the last year or two of his contract, you took a shot in a competitive window.

 

Scenario B: FA pitcher is great, current Brewer crop is a bust: You can probably trade the FA pitcher. You'll have a 2-3 year window to wait it out and find the right trade as the Brewers will be retooling.

 

Scenario C: FA pitcher is a bust, current Brewer crop is great: This is the bad one. Maybe you can't sign the reliever to get you over the top next year. Also, not signing the FA this offseason means you probably are just saving that money to take on the next Arrieta. Of course it could be used for a bunch of smaller deals, but you could just as easily miss on another big acquisition. Also, since we didn't go for Archer or Stroman, at least we know that Burnes or Peralta are still there as other wild cards to get us over the top.

 

Scenario D: FA pitcher is a bust, current Brewer crop is a bust: We'll be retooling in 2019 and 2020 and will be selling off the Shaw/Knebel/Santana types while hoping that Hiura, Hader, Burnes can get it done in the next window. Cain and FA pitcher will be on the books for 2021 and 2022, but otherwise long term salary is malleable again when we try again.

 

I know it would be bad to sign a guy just to sign someone given all of the above here, but I do think this is the time if there is one. If not this year, then next (but FA is much more complicated next year).

 

Well laid out, makes sense. Thanks. I generally agree this is a logical time on a account of the cost clearly being pushed down right now so MKE can actually be involved. Still, if Arrieta demands are legit in the 5/125 world then just go to the next guys at much less. All the same reasons apply that you stated as to what should keep their prices down and why we have a window now, but should be drastically less financial risk if it goes badly.

[anglotiger]

This was a good, well-thought-out post...

 

Here is why I think this is the best time for the Brewers to spend on a pitcher, if they ever do.

 

Let's just say Arrieta gets a 5/$125 deal with an opt-out early in it. Plug in Lynn or Cobb

 

Reason 1 for signing a free agent now: None of the heavy hitters are bidding now that the Cubs have hit the threshold for Darvish. All of the big hitters are sitting this out at the lux tax threshold which is deflating prices and giving the Brewers a fighting chance.

 

Agreed. With all due respect to anyone who thinks that the Brewers would have a chance at a top FA starter next year - I fear they're probably looking through some blue-tinted goggles. Once the big financial guns are back under the threshold and have "reset the clock" then the prices are likely going back up, and out of the Brewers' price range.

 

It's the precise problem I have with the one-year opt-out.

 

Scenario B: FA pitcher is great, current Brewer crop is a bust: You can probably trade the FA pitcher. You'll have a 2-3 year window to wait it out and find the right trade as the Brewers will be retooling.

 

And if the prices, as we speculate here, go up next year - the contract could look a lot more attractive to potential trading partners - even more so if it was front-loaded.

[brewmann04]

Agreed. With all due respect to anyone who thinks that the Brewers would have a chance at a top FA starter next year - I fear they're probably looking through some blue-tinted goggles. Once the big financial guns are back under the threshold and have "reset the clock" then the prices are likely going back up, and out of the Brewers' price range.

 

It's the precise problem I have with the one-year opt-out.

 

Bingo spot on with that reply

[monty57]

I think that if teams don't come up to Arrieta's price tag, Boras will have no problem holding out until mid-season, at which time teams in contention will probably cave in and sign him to a big deal rather than trading away prospects for a rental.

 

If we are to go 5/125, then where is the "deal in a down free agent year" people are talking about? We would be paying #1 starter price for a guy who is probably a #2-3 right now and will probably be at best a #4-5 by the end of the deal.

 

I'm not against signing a big free agent to improve the team. I just don't think any of the guys out there are good enough to justify the contract they'll demand.

[KeithStone53151]

I think that if teams don't come up to Arrieta's price tag, Boras will have no problem holding out until mid-season, at which time teams in contention will probably cave in and sign him to a big deal rather than trading away prospects for a rental.

 

If we are to go 5/125, then where is the "deal in a down free agent year" people are talking about? We would be paying #1 starter price for a guy who is probably a #2-3 right now and will probably be at best a #4-5 by the end of the deal.

 

I'm not against signing a big free agent to improve the team. I just don't think any of the guys out there are good enough to justify the contract they'll demand.

 

I hope teams aren't that stupid. Him missing half a season would be a team missing 50% of one of his "good" seasons. How would that increase his value? He certainly wouldn't get paid as if he pitched that whole season...

[MadThinker88]

.....

This was a huge change with the QO system and the current CBA that was agreed to.

Since teams were valuing higher draft picks (& the slotted bonus money), the MLBPA did not want to see the same players get impacted multiple times while other players never had a cost association.

 

Since Jake got a QO from the Cubs this off season, he never has to worry about a QO again...

 

And since he was traded mid season, if Darvish opts out after two years, that means the Cubs could offer the QO and receive a draft pick.

 

I believe you are correct.

The Logic holds: Since Yu has never been given a QO, the Cubs (or another team) should be able to extend one as his deal ends (assuming he is with the organization the entire season leading up to that opportunity).

 

The 2 parts giving me pause would be the timing of when Yu turns down the player option (is it before the deadline for a team to extend a QO) & can a QO be extended if the player has declined an option that was at greater value for the next season.

 

Answering those 2 parts will take some research.

[anglotiger]

I think that if teams don't come up to Arrieta's price tag, Boras will have no problem holding out until mid-season, at which time teams in contention will probably cave in and sign him to a big deal rather than trading away prospects for a rental.

 

If we are to go 5/125, then where is the "deal in a down free agent year" people are talking about? We would be paying #1 starter price for a guy who is probably a #2-3 right now and will probably be at best a #4-5 by the end of the deal.

 

I'm not against signing a big free agent to improve the team. I just don't think any of the guys out there are good enough to justify the contract they'll demand.

 

I hope teams aren't that stupid. Him missing half a season would be a team missing 50% of one of his "good" seasons. How would that increase his value? He certainly wouldn't get paid as if he pitched that whole season...

 

I hope that Arrieta isn't that stupid. To give up $10-12.5M this season, in the hopes that teams don't care that they've missed that half-season and will cave to Boras' demands, seems awfully risky - the market for him may actually get smaller, depending upon how the season progresses - especially bearing in mind that two of the teams in need of pitching are going to throw money at Cobb and Lynn (not as much, of course, but probably enough that they won't have more to throw at Arrieta).

 

My guess is that Boras is holding out for Cobb and Lynn to sign, and that someone will get desperate to not get left out in the cold...

[TURBO]

Serious question: When was the last time a MLB player sat out a partial or full season, waiting for an offer to his liking? I'm not talking about a player that had no interest from teams, so he had no choice. I'm talking about a player with multiple offers on the table, but none that met his or his agent's expectations.

 

I can't recall that happening, not that it didn't.

[superfly]

He's also a guy that came out of nowhwere to have a ridiculous year at age 29 and has taken a major step back each year since and was rocked for the whole first half last year. To me out of nowhere at an old age guys are the most likely regression candidates, and he is now 32. Sure he'd likely be our best guy this year but he also might just be a 3.5-4 era guy, which of course is fine, but not worth 25 mil per year and a good chance he could be on the lower end of that or worse in the last 2-3 years of the deal. There's a chance if his regression continues that Woodruff could end up with similar numbers for 500K. And we're now on years and years of early 30s players getting huge deals and then regressing for whatever reasons (normal age, not working as hard since they have their big payday in the bank, etc). Or of course he could be a workout warrior and keep producing at 3.5 or better. But you have to weigh all that into the decision. I hope for a 4 year max with that 4th some kind of option. But I don't see it happening and I certainly don't want to go 6 years.

 

Arrieta didn't come out of nowhere. When he left the AL East (pssst...Archer) in 2013 his numbers dropped drastically and have been either good or great since. He was good for 1.5 years before he went total ham.

 

Signing him is not my #1 priority unless we go and get Archer or a guy like Clevenger to complement him. It doesn't make sense otherwise. But if we're going "all in" and "win now" as some say we are, my preference is to go in all the way and sign him. Arrieta/Archer/Nelson/Anderson/Davies/Burnes(Woodruff) has us contending for titles, not Wild Card banners.

 

If we don't go that route I agree, absolutely no Arrieta.

[Boomer5]

Signing Arrieta is fine if you think of it as a 2 year $100M deal because he will probably be good over the first two years of the deal.

 

With MLB semi getting a handle on PEDs the typical over 30 steep regression is very likely.

[MVP2110]

Serious question: When was the last time a MLB player sat out a partial or full season, waiting for an offer to his liking? I'm not talking about a player that had no interest from teams, so he had no choice. I'm talking about a player with multiple offers on the table, but none that met his or his agent's expectations.

 

I can't recall that happening, not that it didn't.

 

Morales did it a few years ago

[Oldcity]

Serious question: When was the last time a MLB player sat out a partial or full season, waiting for an offer to his liking? I'm not talking about a player that had no interest from teams, so he had no choice. I'm talking about a player with multiple offers on the table, but none that met his or his agent's expectations.

 

I can't recall that happening, not that it didn't.

 

[3and2Fastball]

Man oh man, just pay Arrieta what he wants, trade for another starter and let's go contend for a title! Easy for me to say because it isn't my money.

 

Someone should do do a study on how much revenue would be created by fans turning fanatical over a Brewers World Series team

[tmwiese55]

He's also a guy that came out of nowhwere to have a ridiculous year at age 29 and has taken a major step back each year since and was rocked for the whole first half last year. To me out of nowhere at an old age guys are the most likely regression candidates, and he is now 32. Sure he'd likely be our best guy this year but he also might just be a 3.5-4 era guy, which of course is fine, but not worth 25 mil per year and a good chance he could be on the lower end of that or worse in the last 2-3 years of the deal. There's a chance if his regression continues that Woodruff could end up with similar numbers for 500K. And we're now on years and years of early 30s players getting huge deals and then regressing for whatever reasons (normal age, not working as hard since they have their big payday in the bank, etc). Or of course he could be a workout warrior and keep producing at 3.5 or better. But you have to weigh all that into the decision. I hope for a 4 year max with that 4th some kind of option. But I don't see it happening and I certainly don't want to go 6 years.

 

Arrieta didn't come out of nowhere. When he left the AL East (pssst...Archer) in 2013 his numbers dropped drastically and have been either good or great since. He was good for 1.5 years before he went total ham.

 

Signing him is not my #1 priority unless we go and get Archer or a guy like Clevenger to complement him. It doesn't make sense otherwise. But if we're going "all in" and "win now" as some say we are, my preference is to go in all the way and sign him. Arrieta/Archer/Nelson/Anderson/Davies/Burnes(Woodruff) has us contending for titles, not Wild Card banners.

 

If we don't go that route I agree, absolutely no Arrieta.

 

So you're saying it's not of nowhere because he had the good 2nd half the year before? OK, call it whatever you want. The guy was terrible, then all of a sudden figured it out and dominated for 1.5 years at age 29. NL helped and finding the right pitching coach that tweaked his mechanics was big too. But then started regressing. It is what it is. he has his PED rumors around him but who knows. However you want to slice it, he's regressed massive each year for two years now and is now 32. I'm just saying that he was someone who didn't break out until 28/29 is a sign he's more likely to regress than a blue chip guy. I guess i'm just pretty skeptical since he got crushed for half of last season and we'd likely be paying him until he's 37. But yea if they go for it I sure hope he's awesome the next 2-3 years.

[monty57]

Serious question: When was the last time a MLB player sat out a partial or full season, waiting for an offer to his liking? I'm not talking about a player that had no interest from teams, so he had no choice. I'm talking about a player with multiple offers on the table, but none that met his or his agent's expectations.

 

I can't recall that happening, not that it didn't.

 

Doesn't happen often, but with all of the collusion talk and the union setting up a separate spring training for the loads of unsigned free agents, this isn't a normal year. If players and agents think the teams are lowballing them, I think some players and agents will "make a statement" and Boras will be leading the charge.

 

 

I hope teams aren't that stupid.

 

Teams tend to get really stupid mid-season when they think it will help them win. If you're willing to trade away the top prospect in baseball for a rental closer, why wouldn't you sign a guy who's just holding out for money? Plus, pitchers get hurt all the time. Let's say a big money, World Series hopeful team loses a key starter to a season-ending injury in April. Does that change things enough for them to give Boras a call? Holding out into the season may not be normal, but this offseason has been far from normal.

 

I guess my thinking is that Boras/Arrieta aren't going to sign a deal that they think is far below what they want just to be signed by opening day. If the hopes on this board are that the Brewers are going to get a huge discount for his services, I don't think that will happen. If they want him, they'll have to sign him to a long-term deal for #1 starter money, and I don't think that would be a good deal for the Brewers.

 

If I'm wrong, and they're able to get him cheaply, then I'd change my tune. I'd love to have him on a 1-2 year deal, or on a deal that pays him a relatively low AAV, but I don't think that's realistic.

[KeithStone53151]

Serious question: When was the last time a MLB player sat out a partial or full season, waiting for an offer to his liking? I'm not talking about a player that had no interest from teams, so he had no choice. I'm talking about a player with multiple offers on the table, but none that met his or his agent's expectations.

 

I can't recall that happening, not that it didn't.

 

Doesn't happen often, but with all of the collusion talk and the union setting up a separate spring training for the loads of unsigned free agents, this isn't a normal year. If players and agents think the teams are lowballing them, I think some players and agents will "make a statement" and Boras will be leading the charge.

 

I specifically remember Rafael Soriano sitting out until very late May coming of a 3.19 ERA and 3.08 FIP season, firing his agent, and signing a minor league contract shortly after. Anyone care to guess who is agent was? Huge name closer gets a minor league deal because Boras screwed him over with his outrageous demands, I wish teams/players would notice stuff like this more.

[monty57]

Man oh man, just pay Arrieta what he wants, trade for another starter and let's go contend for a title! Easy for me to say because it isn't my money.

 

Someone should do do a study on how much revenue would be created by fans turning fanatical over a Brewers World Series team

 

 

http://thefieldsofgreen.com/2014/10/02/how-much-value-does-a-postseason-appearance-hold-for-mlb-franchises/

 

From the article:

 

Long story short, it pays off to make in the playoffs. On average, about $20-$30 million worth.

 

This is why teams are willing to add payroll mid-season if it looks like adding a player and his salary will get the team to the playoffs.