Jake Arrieta

[brewerfan82]

Furthermore, I thought vesting options/incentives couldn't be performance based, hence why they always have to do with appearances/at-bats and/or awards (MVP/Cy Young). Albeit, I can't find that in writing anywhere, someone correct me if that's incorrect.

[SRB]

2) 3/$75M with 30M/25M/20M per year and vesting options for year 4 ($24M) for cummulative fWAR >= 10 for years 1 to 3 and vesting option of year 5 ($24M) for fWar >= 3 in year 4.

 

I know this is nitpicking, but I don't think such a contract would be possible, even if both sides wanted it. fWAR (or any other iteration of WAR) isn't an official stat, and therefore subject to change. What happens if Fangraphs unexpectedly closes up shop sometime in the middle of his contract?

 

I don't think the fWAR formula is really secret, or at least it didn't used to be (it's probably more complex now than it was 5+ years ago).

 

It's a moot point though, because I'm fairly sure the CBA prohibits contract incentives based on actual performance. (The exceptions are playing time and awards)

 

*Edit* Had this typed up before posting, I didn't just ignore MrAllen's post above saying the exact same thing

[brewerfan82]

Oh wow...

 

Jake Arrieta Turned Down Six-Year Offer From Cubs

Before the Cubs agreed to terms with Yu Darvish, Theo Epstein contacted Jake Arrieta to see if the former Chicago ace would be willing to accept a six-year offer in the range of the $126MM given to Darvish, FanRag Sports’ Jon Heyman reports.

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2018/02/jake-arrieta-turned-down-six-year-offer-from-cubs.html

[KeithStone53151]

Oh wow...

 

Before the Cubs agreed to terms with Yu Darvish, Theo Epstein contacted Jake Arrieta to see if the former Chicago ace would be willing to accept a six-year offer in the range of the $126MM given to Darvish, FanRag Sports’ Jon Heyman reports.

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2018/02/jake-arrieta-turned-down-six-year-offer-from-cubs.html

 

My oh my, I think Arrieta is going to remain unsigned into May or June...stay away Mr. Stearns, stay away.

[Madhawk23]

My goodness - if Arrieta turned down the deal that Darvish ended up getting, then I'd have to say he's getting terrible advice.

[Warning Track Power]

Oh wow...

 

Jake Arrieta Turned Down Six-Year Offer From Cubs

Before the Cubs agreed to terms with Yu Darvish, Theo Epstein contacted Jake Arrieta to see if the former Chicago ace would be willing to accept a six-year offer in the range of the $126MM given to Darvish, FanRag Sports’ Jon Heyman reports.

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2018/02/jake-arrieta-turned-down-six-year-offer-from-cubs.html

Oh wow...Arrieta must think he will get the 6 year and/or $22-$25 per year. Knowing Boras, he will. Best guess now is 6 years $135 from Washington who will be all in knowing they won’t be able to re-sign Harper.

 

Arrieta is just too rich for Milwaukee blood.

[tigerbrew]

Oh wow...

 

Jake Arrieta Turned Down Six-Year Offer From Cubs

Before the Cubs agreed to terms with Yu Darvish, Theo Epstein contacted Jake Arrieta to see if the former Chicago ace would be willing to accept a six-year offer in the range of the $126MM given to Darvish, FanRag Sports’ Jon Heyman reports.

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2018/02/jake-arrieta-turned-down-six-year-offer-from-cubs.html

 

 

If Arrieta took the Cubs offer, Darvish will likely be a Brewer instead.

[TJseven7]

My goodness - if Arrieta turned down the deal that Darvish ended up getting, then I'd have to say he's getting terrible advice.

 

Yeah... I dont have the 2 at the same level. Arrieta looks primed for a fast and hard decline. Yu... not so much.

 

Jamie Garcia cheaply please!

[DHonks]

My goodness - if Arrieta turned down the deal that Darvish ended up getting, then I'd have to say he's getting terrible advice.

 

My reading of this is that the Cubs called to tell Arrieta and his agent what they were giving Darvish, and if he'd accept a similar value then he could be signed instead. He likely needed to accept right at that moment.

[MrTPlush]

Can someone explain the Garcia love? I know it is off topic, but I’m curious why a few want him so badly? I get he is cheap, but where is the upside I imagine you guys feel he has? Too lazy to look up advanced stats myself right now.

[trwi7]

Can someone explain the Garcia love? I know it is off topic, but I’m curious why a few want him so badly? I get he is cheap, but where is the upside I imagine you guys feel he has? Too lazy to look up advanced stats myself right now.

 

Gets a lot of ground balls, decent number of strikeouts on top of that, 26th out of 110 qualified starters the last three years in soft contact percentage, not as good in hard contact at 42nd but tied for 3rd out of 110 qualified starters the last three years in LD% at 17.9% with Keuchel. For a cheap one year deal or one year plus an option or something? You could do a lot worse. If you like Chacin, you'll probably like Garcia as well and you could probably get him for even less than what Chacin got. Maybe like 1/8 with an option for year 2 at $8 million with a couple million buyout or something.

[TJseven7]

Can someone explain the Garcia love? I know it is off topic, but I’m curious why a few want him so badly? I get he is cheap, but where is the upside I imagine you guys feel he has? Too lazy to look up advanced stats myself right now.

 

Gets a lot of ground balls, decent number of strikeouts on top of that, 26th out of 110 qualified starters the last three years in soft contact percentage, not as good in hard contact at 42nd but tied for 3rd out of 110 qualified starters the last three years in LD% at 17.9% with Keuchel. For a cheap one year deal or one year plus an option or something? You could do a lot worse. If you like Chacin, you'll probably like Garcia as well and you could probably get him for even less than what Chacin got. Maybe like 1/8 with an option for year 2 at $8 million with a couple million buyout or something.

 

Was literally going to say, cheap, some upside, cheap, and better than TRYING guerra wilkerson suter gallardo at 5. But you said this WAY better. He's cheap and a lefty. Basically I'm ok investing nothing at pitcher long term or prospect wise and our 4-5 are very unproven so I'd like a guy who seems to floor better than Garza who has had a very good year somewhat recently. We need the insurance and who knows maybe lightning in a bottle. If we do nothing and woodruff struggles we are in bad shape.

 

And yes I really like chacin at his price. Garcia gives us 2 shots at a charlie morton surprise and he blocks no one. Sorry suter go be the long man.

 

Also garcia has had his success with his sinking fb and cutter. He scrapped the cutter last year, and in the past 2 he's went from 40-60 fb/sinker to 60/40 fb/sinker. Get him on sinkers and cutters heavily again and he could get back to sub 4. With the numbers twri7 posted I wonder if analytics would try to make him a pitch to contact guy because his best years were low bb years. Nibble less and trust your defense and pitches movement.

[SandyTolan]

My goodness - if Arrieta turned down the deal that Darvish ended up getting, then I'd have to say he's getting terrible advice.

 

My reading of this is that the Cubs called to tell Arrieta and his agent what they were giving Darvish, and if he'd accept a similar value then he could be signed instead. He likely needed to accept right at that moment.

 

Looks like MLBTR corrected an earlier story they ran saying Arrieta actually turned down a Cub offer. Apparently, he did not:

A careful reading of Heyman’s phrasing is advised, as he at no point states that the Cubs actually made a six-year offer to Arrieta. Nor could one accurately say Arrieta turned down a six-year offer from the Cubs, as we erroneously did in an earlier version of this post.

[brewerfan82]

He never says there was an "official" offer or decline, but I'm not sure what's to be misinterpreted in what Heyman said (and what that implies about what Arrieta expects he's worth in free agency):

 

Darvish was the focus by that point, but with some uncertainty about whether he’d take the deal, Epstein made the call to Arrieta to see where he stood. And to no one’s surprise, while Arrieta surely appreciated the gesture, he wasn’t immediately prepared to accept a six-year deal for what was believed to be for a similar annual salary, which was important for the Cubs, who are intent on staying under the $197 million threshold that has become an impediment in the free-agent market.

[YungTeeler]

There's no way he turned down a Darvish type offer. Sounds like Scott Boras BS

[fondybrewfan]

At this point Arrieta might just try for a 1-2 year deal and try again later. If he wants 5-6 years he still might be available at the trading deadline.

[KCBrewerfan34]

At this point Arrieta might just try for a 1-2 year deal and try again later. If he wants 5-6 years he still might be available at the trading deadline.

 

 

Even Boras can figure it out. Arrietta at age 34 is NOT going to get a long term deal. This will likely be his last big contract.

 

what about 5/100 with a player opt out after 1 year

 

 

If he's salty about having to settle for 100 he can try again after the year.

[mlloyd10]

3/70 with a player opt out after yr1 - yr 3 being a team option with a 5 mil out out

 

25/25/20

[brewmann04]

I don't offer him more than 3 years at this point.

[anglotiger]

I seem to be in a minority here, but I'm totally against the idea of giving anyone an opt-out after one year.

 

I understand that it might be the only way to get someone like Arrieta to sign but, in a year's time, we're back in the same place only teams like the Dodgers and Yankees (who are spending this year getting their payroll under the tax threshold) will be back in play for the big-name free agents that they're passing on this year - and I strongly suspect that's a significant factor in why the market is slower than usual. If the Brewers were going to get a big name via Free Agency, this was really the year IMHO.

 

Now I'm not advocating signing Arrieta - I preferred Darvish by far, and I do have concerns that the Cubs may have chosen to pass on Arrieta - but I'd be shocked if the Brewers managed to sign a significant SP asset in FA next year, should Arrieta be signed and then opts out after one season (which Boras' ego might make inevitable). If the FO feels that Arrieta is an injury risk I'd rather they stay away entirely and, if not, I would be happier if they didn't offer the opt out after just one year - three, maybe with a front-loaded deal, but not one. If he says no, then he says no.

 

If the one-year opt-out is all you can do to get Arrieta, I'd much rather see if we can get Cobb for much less. He's not as good a pickup, but the idea of his breaking stuff getting all of those ground balls is starting to grow on me a little and he's not an expensive rental.

[DR28]

According to Heyman... Us and Twins are favorites to land Jake.

[KCBrewerfan34]

I seem to be in a minority here, but I'm totally against the idea of giving anyone an opt-out after one year.

 

I understand that it might be the only way to get someone like Arrieta to sign but, in a year's time, we're back in the same place only teams like the Dodgers and Yankees (who are spending this year getting their payroll under the tax threshold) will be back in play for the big-name free agents that they're passing on this year - and I strongly suspect that's a significant factor in why the market is slower than usual. If the Brewers were going to get a big name via Free Agency, this was really the year IMHO.

 

Now I'm not advocating signing Arrieta - I preferred Darvish by far, and I do have concerns that the Cubs may have chosen to pass on Arrieta - but I'd be shocked if the Brewers managed to sign a significant SP asset in FA next year, should Arrieta be signed and then opts out after one season (which Boras' ego might make inevitable). If the FO feels that Arrieta is an injury risk I'd rather they stay away entirely and, if not, I would be happier if they didn't offer the opt out after just one year - three, maybe with a front-loaded deal, but not one. If he says no, then he says no.

 

If the one-year opt-out is all you can do to get Arrieta, I'd much rather see if we can get Cobb for much less. He's not as good a pickup, but the idea of his breaking stuff getting all of those ground balls is starting to grow on me a little and he's not an expensive rental.

 

 

In theory thats great but supposedly Cobb is sticking to his 4/80 price tag.

[fondybrewfan]

My guess is a 4 year deal with an opt out after 2 years and maybe a vesting option for a 5th year if certain innings and production limits are met. 4/90. I would probably front load it a bit: 24,23,22,21. I would guess some deferred salary in there as well; maybe $2 Million a year.

[monty57]

If the Brewers are competing for a playoff spot come the trading deadline then they should definitely look to get someone then but otherwise I hope the Brewers just don't add anyone this offseason unless it is for a younger player who is going to contribute to the team further down the road.

 

This is the way I'd like to go as well. I hope we can get a high-upside guy with team control in trade. I know some people want us to go all in to win now, but I'd rather have a good young pitcher under team control at a reasonable price for years instead of emptying the farm for a guy like Archer or tying up 1/4 of our payroll for another 30-something year old for half a decade.

 

I'm not saying to punt on the season. I'm thinking of trading from the group of Santana, Broxton, Thames, Aguilar to get a young, MLB-ready starter who is "unproven" at the MLB level but who Stearns thinks can be a good MLB pitcher.

 

I don't want them to sign Arrieta, unless they somehow got him on a 1-year deal which is not going to happen. The Brewers can't afford to have a 5-6 year contract for $20M+ / year blow up on them in a couple of years. That may help us this year, but it could cripple us for a long time, and I'm not ready to make that trade-off.

[KCBrewerfan34]

If the Brewers are competing for a playoff spot come the trading deadline then they should definitely look to get someone then but otherwise I hope the Brewers just don't add anyone this offseason unless it is for a younger player who is going to contribute to the team further down the road.

 

This is the way I'd like to go as well. I hope we can get a high-upside guy with team control in trade. I know some people want us to go all in to win now, but I'd rather have a good young pitcher under team control at a reasonable price for years instead of emptying the farm for a guy like Archer or tying up 1/4 of our payroll for another 30-something year old for half a decade.

 

I'm not saying to punt on the season. I'm thinking of trading from the group of Santana, Broxton, Thames, Aguilar to get a young, MLB-ready starter who is "unproven" at the MLB level but who Stearns thinks can be a good MLB pitcher.

 

I don't want them to sign Arrieta, unless they somehow got him on a 1-year deal which is not going to happen. The Brewers can't afford to have a 5-6 year contract for $20M+ / year blow up on them in a couple of years. That may help us this year, but it could cripple us for a long time, and I'm not ready to make that trade-off.

 

 

 

The only problem with that strategy is starting pitching at the deadline goes for a kings ransom. Because of 2019 looking FA and big clubs spending again this is the year for the Brewers to strike, don't wait DS.