Jake Arrieta

[coolhandluke121]

 

I don't understand how this avoids us losing a pick. I don't think the 50 million threshold means anything to us. If we sign a player that turned down a qualifying offer we lose a draft pick. In this case it would be a 4th round pick.

 

Do I have it confused with a bonus pick? It's all pretty complicated. It could be a bonus pick before round 2 for the Cubs if he gets $50m or more. Still a big deal for the Brewers' interests.

 

And the QO for Arrieta next year would fetch a pick.

 

Could just wait until after the comp pick deadline date before signing anyone, too. Kendrys Morales did that a few years back. I'm sure a few players will be doing that this year.

 

ETA: Just looked it up and $50m would give the Cubs a bonus pick after round 2 because they aren't a revenue-sharing recipient or luxury tax team.

[coolhandluke121]

Yeah, fangraphs still says you can avoid losing a pick if you wait until after the draft and gives the Morales example. I bet there will be more of that this year because of a perfect storm of circumstances.

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/library/business/draft-pick-compensation/

 

I'm down with that. Make sure you're in the hunt before you go nuts over a pitcher.

[Scott.fossum]

 

I don't understand how this avoids us losing a pick. I don't think the 50 million threshold means anything to us. If we sign a player that turned down a qualifying offer we lose a draft pick. In this case it would be a 4th round pick.

 

Do I have it confused with a bonus pick? It's all pretty complicated. It could be a bonus pick before round 2 for the Cubs if he gets $50m or more. Still a big deal for the Brewers' interests.

 

And the QO for Arrieta next year would fetch a pick.

 

Could just wait until after the comp pick deadline date before signing anyone, too. Kendrys Morales did that a few years back. I'm sure a few players will be doing that this year.

 

It is a confusing system, but my understanding is that we will lose a pick if we sign a free agent that receives a qualifying offer. That pick is based on our status of a club that receives revenue sharing and we are a club not over the luxury tax, thus our third highest pick(however the pick we received for competitive balance is not eligible to be taken) so then it moves to our third round pick. This is what we lost for signing Cain. The same process would happen with Arrieta then our third highest pick would then slide to our 4th round pick. The 50 million dollar threshold for signing a player only affects the team losing the player and only in certain circumstances, with cubs status as a none receiving of revenue sharing club and they were under the luxury tax, they will receive a pick after competitive balance round B picks regardless of the contract Arrieta signs.

I don't know anything about the comp pick deadline and how that affects everything

[coolhandluke121]

 

It is a confusing system, but my understanding is that we will lose a pick if we sign a free agent that receives a qualifying offer. That pick is based on our status of a club that receives revenue sharing and we are a club not over the luxury tax, thus our third highest pick(however the pick we received for competitive balance is not eligible to be taken) so then it moves to our third round pick. This is what we lost for signing Cain. The same process would happen with Arrieta then our third highest pick would then slide to our 4th round pick. The 50 million dollar threshold for signing a player only affects the team losing the player and only in certain circumstances, with cubs status as a none receiving of revenue sharing club and they were under the luxury tax, they will receive a pick after competitive balance round B picks regardless of the contract Arrieta signs.

I don't know anything about the comp pick deadline and how that affects everything

 

See my second post. I looked it up and you don't lose a pick if you wait until after the June draft. I'm down with that. Make sure you're reasonably decent before going nuts for a pitcher. If they can't stay around .500 with Suter for a few months, Arrieta or Cobb or Lynn wouldn't make a big difference anyway.

[MadThinker88]

What do you think the chances are Scott Boras has placed at least one phone call or text to Mark Attanasio in the past hour?

 

I don't know if that is as needed as before. Stearns already has the green light to spend the money.

 

IF Boras did call MA, I hope Mark pointed out that any deal needs to be made with DS and politely wrapped up the call.

 

I ABSOLUTELY HATE the idea/ notion by Scott Boras that because he is Scott Boras he can skip the normal team channels & go straight to the majority owner.

 

The owner hires the people in the FO to do a job & empowers them to do it. Most owners realize that if they get involved it undercuts their people and makes their job 2 or 3 times tougher.

 

Its best for the owner to stay out of the day-to-day field operations and determinations for who is available for the roster.

 

Sorry. Rant over.

[MrTPlush]

 

It is a confusing system, but my understanding is that we will lose a pick if we sign a free agent that receives a qualifying offer. That pick is based on our status of a club that receives revenue sharing and we are a club not over the luxury tax, thus our third highest pick(however the pick we received for competitive balance is not eligible to be taken) so then it moves to our third round pick. This is what we lost for signing Cain. The same process would happen with Arrieta then our third highest pick would then slide to our 4th round pick. The 50 million dollar threshold for signing a player only affects the team losing the player and only in certain circumstances, with cubs status as a none receiving of revenue sharing club and they were under the luxury tax, they will receive a pick after competitive balance round B picks regardless of the contract Arrieta signs.

I don't know anything about the comp pick deadline and how that affects everything

 

See my second post. I looked it up and you don't lose a pick if you wait until after the June draft. I'm down with that. Make sure you're reasonably decent before going nuts for a pitcher. If they can't stay around .500 with Suter for a few months, Arrieta or Cobb or Lynn wouldn't make a big difference anyway.

 

Then you aren’t getting a pitcher. Because they won’t be there in June.

[splitterpfj]

Then you aren’t getting a pitcher. Because they won’t be there in June.

 

Perhaps this is why the Brewers are rumored to be compiling a list of pitchers to watch as trade deadline possibilities - maybe they simply don't see a match on the market right now.

 

That's definitely not my favorite development, if true, I absolutely want to see a significant starting rotation upgrade prior to the season, but if a bad deal is all they can get, I'll side with no deal at the moment.

[SandyTolan]

New tweet from Tom Haudricourt:

 

 

I am aware that this could be posturing, but if Stearns was really on the cusp of something, I doubt he'd throw in the, "I anticipate" line. What is the point of that?

 

That's what Melvin used to always tell Tom - just before a big Brewer trade or signing.

[SandyTolan]

Then you aren’t getting a pitcher. Because they won’t be there in June.

 

Perhaps this is why the Brewers are rumored to be compiling a list of pitchers to watch as trade deadline possibilities - maybe they simply don't see a match on the market right now.

 

That's definitely not my favorite development, if true, I absolutely want to see a significant starting rotation upgrade prior to the season, but if a bad deal is all they can get, I'll side with no deal at the moment.

 

Seems this might be the time to pull the trigger on the rumored Santana-for-Salazar deal. Salazar could be a real sleeper, even outperform Darvish at a fraction of the cost. Or, Clevinger.

[NOMAAM]

New tweet from Tom Haudricourt:

 

 

I am aware that this could be posturing, but if Stearns was really on the cusp of something, I doubt he'd throw in the, "I anticipate" line. What is the point of that?

 

That's what Melvin used to always tell Tom - just before a big Brewer trade or signing.

 

I'm not motivated to trade Overbay at this time. My personal favorite.

[Warning Track Power]

For what it’s worth, Jesse Rogers of ESPN Chicago tweeted his belief that Arietta will end up in Milwaukee or Washington for a higher AAV and shorter deal than Darvish.

[Dadbauer]

For what it’s worth, Jesse Rogers of ESPN Chicago tweeted his belief that Arietta will end up in Milwaukee or Washington for a higher AAV and shorter deal than Darvish.

 

Has to be speculation at this point, but it makes sense. I'm not very fond of having to deal with Boras in the case of Arrieta.

[brewmann04]

I would do a lesser year deal for him

[StCroixCtyBrewer]

Heyman just tweeted that Milwaukee is intent on adding an arm. Mentioned Arrieta and Odorizzi

[brewmann04]

Maybe both

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

I think Arrieta will get something like 3 years/70 million. Big money, but I think I'd be OK with that. The guy has been durable, and keeps himself in immaculate condition. Also proven to be a big game pitcher, and I like the chip he's going to have on his shoulder against Darvish and the Cubs.

[StCroixCtyBrewer]

I think Arrieta will get something like 3 years/70 million. Big money, but I think I'd be OK with that. The guy has been durable, and keeps himself in immaculate condition. Also proven to be a big game pitcher, and I like the chip he's going to have on his shoulder against Darvish and the Cubs.

If they get him for 3/70 I’ll do cartwheels

[NOMAAM]

Heyman just tweeted that Milwaukee is intent on adding an arm. Mentioned Arrieta and Odorizzi

Also mentioned Cobb and that also Lynn makes sense not really basing it on anything new it seems.

[StCroixCtyBrewer]

Heyman just tweeted that Milwaukee is intent on adding an arm. Mentioned Arrieta and Odorizzi

Also mentioned Cobb and that also makes sense not really basing it on anything new it seems.

Maybe not, but it seems to directly refute what Haudricourt thinks/is hoping

[NOMAAM]

Heyman just tweeted that Milwaukee is intent on adding an arm. Mentioned Arrieta and Odorizzi

Also mentioned Cobb and that also makes sense not really basing it on anything new it seems.

Maybe not, but it seems to directly refute what Haudricourt thinks/is hoping

TH isn't a rumor reporter. I tend to tune him out around the deadline and off season unless the move has already happened.

[KCBrewerfan34]

Stearns uses TH for his propaganda. Heyman and guys like that have the info.

[coolhandluke121]

Posted this in the FA pitcher, but it really belongs here.

 

1 year, $49.9 million for Arrieta.

 

- Keeps the Brewers in the wild card picture.

- Gets possibly the last really good year Arrieta has.

- Avoids giving up a pick or signing a terrible contract.

- Gives Arrieta about half of what he would get on a much longer deal; how hard would that be to make up next winter??

- The Brewers stay roughly within their budget before worrying about raises and arbitration and stuff like that next year and beyond.

 

What do you think?

 

Do it. Plus we can give him a QO and get our pick back.

 

I was reading more about the CBA and a player can only get the QO once in his career, so that's not an option. I'd lower that number a good deal, but would still consider something in the high 30's.

[Mr Southpaw]

I think Arrieta will get something like 3 years/70 million. Big money, but I think I'd be OK with that. The guy has been durable, and keeps himself in immaculate condition. Also proven to be a big game pitcher, and I like the chip he's going to have on his shoulder against Darvish and the Cubs.

 

1 year $30 million (30 per year)

2 year $54 million (27 per year)

3 year $72 million (24 per year)

4 year $88 million (22 per year) with a team buy out for $5 million

 

Let Boras choose his contract. I think both sides would be happy. Jake would get more than Davish per year and the Brewers would get a safer shorter term contract. Personally, I like the 2 year deal.

[JohnBriggs12]

I think Arrieta will get something like 3 years/70 million. Big money, but I think I'd be OK with that. The guy has been durable, and keeps himself in immaculate condition. Also proven to be a big game pitcher, and I like the chip he's going to have on his shoulder against Darvish and the Cubs.

 

1 year $30 million (30 per year)

2 year $54 million (27 per year)

3 year $72 million (24 per year)

4 year $88 million (22 per year) with a team buy out for $5 million

 

Let Boras choose his contract. I think both sides would be happy. Jake would get more than Davish per year and the Brewers would get a safer shorter term contract. Personally, I like the 2 year deal.

 

Those are in line what I am thinking it will take. Arrieta isn't sniffing 6 years and likely not 5. Of those deals, I could see Boras taking the 2 years and hoping Arrieta gets one last bite of the apple.

[pacopete4]

Not many were giving Yu a chance to get six years so five years is not out of the question here