Jake Arrieta

[DR28]

Brewers Reportedly Showing Interest In Jake Arrieta

 

With Jimmy Nelson set to miss a portion of the 2018 season following shoulder surgery, the Brewers are eyeing top-end rotation upgrades and showing some early interest in Jake Arrieta, tweets MLB.com’s Jon Morosi.

 

If we get the Arrieta of 2nd half 2017 YES PLEASE!!

 

Arrieta

Anderson

Davies

Suter

Woodruff

 

With Jimmy coming back at some point, my guess is AS break.

[KeithStone53151]

Please no, I can't think of a single offseason move I would dislike more than this one. I'm not overly concerned by us showing interest, ideally it's simply an effort to drive up price.

[wallus]

If the Brewers are going to get Arrieta, then they need to get some other help to make him worth it. He alone is not enough to make a huge difference.

[bill hAll Star]

High $ amount, shorter(er) # of years and I'm OK with it. 3 years is a pipe dream, 4 maybe max.

[pacopete4]

I just hate that this is even being discussed. I don't like him personally and I think he is a fall off candidate. We'll be stuck exactly where Brewers free agent signings always are. Underperforming their contract.

[Warning Track Power]

While I am certainly not in on a 4-5 year $20-$25m per contract for Arrieta, I am more for this than dealing the prospects necessary for Archer. Small market teams like the Brewers should be able to deal with a bloated contract much easier than a depleted farm system. If they sign Arrieta and deal a prospect or two like Trent Grisham (Clark) for Jake Odorizzi, I would be happy with a rotation of Arrieta, Anderson, Davies, Odorizzi and Woodruff.

[TURBO]

While I am certainly not in on a 4-5 year $20-$25m per contract for Arrieta, I am more for this than dealing the prospects necessary for Archer. Small market teams like the Brewers should be able to deal with a bloated contract much easier than a depleted farm system. If they sign Arrieta and deal a prospect or two like Trent Grisham (Clark) for Jake Odorizzi, I would be happy with a rotation of Arrieta, Anderson, Davies, Odorizzi and Woodruff.

 

This.

 

Spending cash right now since we have a lot to spend is smarter than depleting the minors.

[bill hAll Star]

I just hate that this is even being discussed. I don't like him personally and I think he is a fall off candidate. We'll be stuck exactly where Brewers free agent signings always are. Underperforming their contract.

 

This is the case with basically every free agent, ever. Yes, Arrieta presents slightly more risk as a pitcher and as one with declining velocity...but who are we saving the money for? If not Arrieta this year, we'll be thinking about signing some other 3.75 FIP/ERA guy for $100 million next year, pushing the contract burden a year further down the road.

[pacopete4]

I just hate that this is even being discussed. I don't like him personally and I think he is a fall off candidate. We'll be stuck exactly where Brewers free agent signings always are. Underperforming their contract.

 

This is the case with basically every free agent, ever. Yes, Arrieta presents slightly more risk as a pitcher and as one with declining velocity...but who are we saving the money for? If not Arrieta this year, we'll be thinking about signing some other 3.75 FIP/ERA guy for $100 million next year, pushing the contract burden a year further down the road.

 

I've said it in other posts but I am good with going with our youth and trying to find cheap guys on 1-year deals to fill out the rotation. The only way I want the Brewers to be spending money on a starting pitcher if it is that true ace type of pitcher. Arrieta doesn't seem to be that guy anymore and I really wonder how much of that great year that he had wasn't because of some things he was taking. I don't want the Brewers to be in the market for overpriced pitching. Just don't see a need for it. Plenty of other ways to build a roster.

[NievesNoNO]

Doesn't seem like the right time to me. I mean, I guess if he was still the same pitcher he was a couple years back the Brewers wouldn't be in the running. Paying TOR money for a now averagish starter doesn't seem like a great idea in a scenario where he's not really a finishing piece on a complete roster.

 

I know they have money; maybe it's not realistic but if they're going to spend I'd much rather completely over pay for Darvish.

 

I would agree that I'd rather sign pitching than trade prospects for it though.

[KeithStone53151]

I just hate that this is even being discussed. I don't like him personally and I think he is a fall off candidate. We'll be stuck exactly where Brewers free agent signings always are. Underperforming their contract.

 

This is the case with basically every free agent, ever. Yes, Arrieta presents slightly more risk as a pitcher and as one with declining velocity...but who are we saving the money for? If not Arrieta this year, we'll be thinking about signing some other 3.75 FIP/ERA guy for $100 million next year, pushing the contract burden a year further down the road.

 

Except that by next year, in theory we'll have Anderson, Davies, Nelson, Hader, Woodruff, and Burnes as established guys in the rotation with Ortiz and Peralta waiting in the wings. None of those guys will be expensive, and they can all be every bit as successful as Arrieta will be going forward. If everything breaks right, we'll have to figure out which guy or guys to trade to clear space. If one or two guys fail, well I have eight names listed and five rotation spots. And every one of the guys I listed has had significant success in the upper levels of the minors, and therefore they aren't as likely to fail. We really shouldn't be targeting anyone on more than a 2 year deal with the pitching we have on the way.

[MrTPlush]

Something about signing a guy who sucked 4/6 of the months of the year to be a TOR guy seems like a pretty solid disaster waiting to happen. You are gambling he looks more like July/August than the rest of the year. If there was a gun to my head and someone said Chase Anderson or Jake Arrieta I think I take Anderson. So I think that sums up what I think of this possibility.

[Fear The Chorizo]

I worry about Arrieta because he churned out a TON of innings for the Cubs in 2015 and 2016, especially compared to innings pitched in earlier seasons of his career. 2017 was probably the correction year where those innings started catching up to him.

 

I'd be very cautious about giving him a contract if the Cubs are willing to let him walk - especially considering their need for quality starting pitching.

[KCBrewerfan34]

How about we go for this, sign Arrietta and trade for Archer, Suter moves back to swing, 6th starter. Please read this Stearns.

[MadThinker88]

I worry about Arrieta because he churned out a TON of innings for the Cubs in 2015 and 2016, especially compared to innings pitched in earlier seasons of his career. 2017 was probably the correction year where those innings started catching up to him.

 

I'd be very cautious about giving him a contract if the Cubs are willing to let him walk - especially considering their need for quality starting pitching.

 

A very good point being raised here (in bold). It also goes to the mindset of the player - is he being driven solely by the money (wanting the mega payday)? Why is Arrieta so focused on getting away from the Cubs??

 

Compare this to Tanaka with the Yankees. Most people (myself included) believed he would opt out the contract this off season. Instead he opted to stay in his deal. The idea of already getting a large chunk of money & playing for contender outweighed going somewhere else for even more money and might not be in position to contend.

 

With many competitors, getting the title/ ring is the main driving force. But once they get 1, they break into 2 types: 1) I got mine & no one can take it away from me or 2) I got a ring, nice. Now I need to get back to work because I want another and another.

 

I'm getting the sense that Jake falls into category 1. Players like Jeter, Posey, Papi Ortiz are in the 2nd category...

[DR28]

Letting Jake walk? Wasn't he a FA anyway?

[KeithStone53151]

How about we go for this, sign Arrietta and trade for Archer, Suter moves back to swing, 6th starter. Please read this Stearns.

 

Hard pass. These 2 moves would basically open up a 2-3 year window of contention, followed by a nasty rebuild. It also significantly limits what we can do to bolster the pen this offseason and probably isn't enough to make us a favorite to win the NL central in 2018.

[KeithStone53151]

Letting Jake walk? Wasn't he a FA anyway?

 

If the Cubs wanted to keep Jake, they absolutely could have. Word is they aren't seriously pursuing him in FA either.

[DR28]

Got it.

 

Guess we'll find out what happens.

 

Jake would be nice but I'm shifting my thoughts towards Lynn or Cobb & Chatwood.

 

Anderson

Lynn or Cobb

Chatwood

Davies

Woodruff

 

That would be money spent more wisely.

[KCBrewerfan34]

How about we go for this, sign Arrietta and trade for Archer, Suter moves back to swing, 6th starter. Please read this Stearns.

 

Hard pass. These 2 moves would basically open up a 2-3 year window of contention, followed by a nasty rebuild. It also significantly limits what we can do to bolster the pen this offseason and probably isn't enough to make us a favorite to win the NL central in 2018.

 

 

Or a 4 year run of playoffs and possible WS, Hard YES!!!!! and we would still have room to add payroll.

[bill hAll Star]

I think part of the Cubs letting him walk is they've already put down a lot of their chips in 2015 and 2016 and now they do run the risk of crippling their payroll.

 

The Brewers have a window where they could spend on one of these guys and it wouldn't kill them.

 

No to trading prospects for guys like Archer. I'm not dying to do this, but I'm OK signing a guy this offseason for 4 years. The payroll opens wide up again in 4 years then when Braun and Arrieta leave and I don't think this strangles our payroll short-term, either.

[homer]

TH made a good point the other day that the money they saved on payroll the last couple of years has been spent on upgrading other things (concessions, buying the minor league team, upgrading spring training, etc.). So they have money to spend and maybe now are looking to spend it without selling the farm (sort of pun intended).

[bill hAll Star]

I just hate that this is even being discussed. I don't like him personally and I think he is a fall off candidate. We'll be stuck exactly where Brewers free agent signings always are. Underperforming their contract.

 

This is the case with basically every free agent, ever. Yes, Arrieta presents slightly more risk as a pitcher and as one with declining velocity...but who are we saving the money for? If not Arrieta this year, we'll be thinking about signing some other 3.75 FIP/ERA guy for $100 million next year, pushing the contract burden a year further down the road.

 

I've said it in other posts but I am good with going with our youth and trying to find cheap guys on 1-year deals to fill out the rotation. The only way I want the Brewers to be spending money on a starting pitcher if it is that true ace type of pitcher. Arrieta doesn't seem to be that guy anymore and I really wonder how much of that great year that he had wasn't because of some things he was taking. I don't want the Brewers to be in the market for overpriced pitching. Just don't see a need for it. Plenty of other ways to build a roster.

 

But you run into the point of continually running a $75 million payroll trying to go all with youth and striking out at several positions. We don't have the young Astros talent waiting in the wings. We do have some decent depth in the starting rotation now, but we don't have an ace in the wings.

 

I've said it on a bunch of threads that I'm not sure I advocate specifically Arrieta, Lynn, Cobb, or somebody next year...but if Mark wants to spend on a position, I'm not going to complain. It isn't going to cripple our payroll given what we already have on it.

 

The Brewers will never afford a true ace in free agency. They should try for some damaged goods ones like Arrieta and pray he becomes one again or just live with a solid #3 starter out of it. Acquiring a true ace will involve trading half of the farm system and a shorter contract.

[bill hAll Star]

TH made a good point the other day that the money they saved on payroll the last couple of years has been spent on upgrading other things (concessions, buying the minor league team, upgrading spring training, etc.). So they have money to spend and maybe now are looking to spend it without selling the farm (sort of pun intended).

 

Add to the fact that in 2020 and 2021 offseasons you have:

 

Shaw gone, Nelson gone, Braun (and his $) gone, Thames gone, Anderson, Davies near the end of his contract, Santana near the end, Knebel nearing the end of his...

 

Since we aren't and won't tank at this point, I see it as 2 windows to compete with great depth always filling out the roster with a few high-dollar signings.

 

Almost nobody from that above list of players is going to warrant a long contract. Fit Arrieta or a similar pitcher and some other guys in over the next few years in with the solid current roster + good minors depth and see what you can do until 2021. When that year rolls around, there will probably be a second window with Phillips/Brinson/Arcia/Hader/Burnes/etc. all in their primes with a few years and once again you'll have money to spend.

 

It's a strange situation where almost all of the guys I listed in that top paragraph will be in their early 30s when their arbitrations or current deals end (save for Santana and Davies). We probably will choose to keep one or two of them, but it's not like we need to save up to try to keep Fielder and Braun. It's a window of late-prime, solid players that probably mostly walk at the end of this. Might as well spend what Mark is offering and see if we can win in this window.

[KeithStone53151]

I think part of the Cubs letting him walk is they've already put down a lot of their chips in 2015 and 2016 and now they do run the risk of crippling their payroll.

 

The Brewers have a window where they could spend on one of these guys and it wouldn't kill them.

 

No to trading prospects for guys like Archer. I'm not dying to do this, but I'm OK signing a guy this offseason for 4 years. The payroll opens wide up again in 4 years then when Braun and Arrieta leave and I don't think this strangles our payroll short-term, either.

 

Next off season, Shaw/Santana/Davies all hit arbitration for the first time. Those 3 alone likely increase our payroll by $10-15 million in 2019. Other guys currently in arbitration will also get increases. Guarantees salaries on Anderson/Thames go up a bit. I get that currently we project in the low 60s in 2018 at the moment. Let's say we add Arrieta at only $20 million per(will probably be closer to 25), and then add 2 relievers at $7 million per for 2 years. With increases in arbitration etc, we project around $110 million in 2019. All of a sudden, we have almost no flexibility in the 2018 offseason to make moves to improve the club. 2020 wouldn't be much better, all the arbitration costs would still be high and we'd have a number of holes to fill in the bullpen and at 1b.

 

The idea of adding Arrieta and trading for Archer and spending a bunch of money because we have a low payroll and young talent is no different from a 13 year old getting their hands on their parents credit card. We can make additions, but we need to be smart about how we do it and make good sound decisions...and definitely not overextend ourselves and waste this advantage that Stearns has created.