What is your 2017-2018 off-season plan for the Brewers?

[bill hAll Star]

Archer make sense to me for different reasons. Walker to cover the time until Hiura gets to Milwaukee and Archer because he is a cost and team-controlled high end pitcher that wouldn't (in this scenario) require us to give up anything more than replaceable organizational depth (Brinson, Phillips, Burnes, Hiura, Dubon all could replace Harrison, Ortiz and Diaz).

 

2 things:

 

1. No player with as much value will only cost that much. The Rays are also an MLB franchise trying to win. They aren't going to say, "give me a bunch of guys from your system that you don't even value that much." Yeah, you may have a few potential blue-chippers, but we'll take the guys that you're counting on as maybe backup options if those blue chippers fail for our franchise pitcher.

 

2. "Replaceable organizational depth" is also a term that I don't understand in a lot of cases.

 

While in a lot of the Greinke/Marcum trades, the Brewers kinda knew they were emptying the system out at certain positions, there is always the mantra of, "well yeah, we're giving up Odorizzi, but we still have Jungmann (drafted later), Peralta, Heckathorn, Thornburg, etc."

 

You need to have a lot of guys at a position because 70% of them will probably flame out and bust. It may not seem like giving up Ortiz is a big deal, but if Perrin, Woodruff, Burnes are not as good as hoped, it's entirely possible that Ortiz was the guy. Or maybe 2 years from now we have a few injuries and Ortiz would've been the guy that would've been good enough to be the #4 starter to patch the hole for half a season to make the playoffs.

 

Also, in these trade scenarios, it always seems like the perceived 2nd or 3rd guy in the org pecking order is offered. Circling back to #1, if the Rays ask for Ortiz in the package, my guess is that an MLB talent evaluator things that Ortiz is the best one of the bunch. They could be wrong, of course, but we're not going to be giving up our 3rd or 4th pitching prospect option, we'll probably have to give up one of them that becomes the best.

[Warning Track Power]

Archer make sense to me for different reasons. Walker to cover the time until Hiura gets to Milwaukee and Archer because he is a cost and team-controlled high end pitcher that wouldn't (in this scenario) require us to give up anything more than replaceable organizational depth (Brinson, Phillips, Burnes, Hiura, Dubon all could replace Harrison, Ortiz and Diaz).

 

2 things:

 

1. No player with as much value will only cost that much. The Rays are also an MLB franchise trying to win. They aren't going to say, "give me a bunch of guys from your system that you don't even value that much." Yeah, you may have a few potential blue-chippers, but we'll take the guys that you're counting on as maybe backup options if those blue chippers fail for our franchise pitcher.

 

2. "Replaceable organizational depth" is also a term that I don't understand in a lot of cases.

 

While in a lot of the Greinke/Marcum trades, the Brewers kinda knew they were emptying the system out at certain positions, there is always the mantra of, "well yeah, we're giving up Odorizzi, but we still have Jungmann (drafted later), Peralta, Heckathorn, Thornburg, etc."

 

You need to have a lot of guys at a position because 70% of them will probably flame out and bust. It may not seem like giving up Ortiz is a big deal, but if Perrin, Woodruff, Burnes are not as good as hoped, it's entirely possible that Ortiz was the guy. Or maybe 2 years from now we have a few injuries and Ortiz would've been the guy that would've been good enough to be the #4 starter to patch the hole for half a season to make the playoffs.

 

Also, in these trade scenarios, it always seems like the perceived 2nd or 3rd guy in the org pecking order is offered. Circling back to #1, if the Rays ask for Ortiz in the package, my guess is that an MLB talent evaluator things that Ortiz is the best one of the bunch. They could be wrong, of course, but we're not going to be giving up our 3rd or 4th pitching prospect option, we'll probably have to give up one of them that becomes the best.

Harrison, Ortiz and Diaz are not secondary prospects to Brinson, Burnes and Hiura. While I would say that most fans would rather part with the first three than the latter but that doesn't make them more or less valuable to the Rays. A deal could be Harrison, Burnes and Hiura. Or Brinson, Ortiz and Diaz. Regardless, I would imagine it would take some combination of these prospects to acquire Archer. The Rays certainly will want the best talent, but I won't be surprised if they are mining the Double AA-ish level for that talent rather than MLB-ready given the Yankees and Red Sox renewing their arms war.

 

In terms of replaceable organizational depth, I think most fans would like to see the Brewers acquire a TOR pitcher. With the depth of Santana, Broxton, Brinson, Phillips, Harrison, Ray, Lutz, Stokes, etc...and only 3 OF spots to play them, it would seem apparent they have enough depth to deal from here to fill other spots where they are lacking.

[adambr2]

I'm with you Keith. I don't understand the 'bring back Lucroy' crowd at all. I would expect anyone that actually wants him back felt that way purely for sentimental reasons -- except I don't think anyone here who wants him back is sentimental about it at all.

 

Pina has earned the job, and he's cheap. Lucroy isn't a bankbreaker, but it's a high price to pay for someone who may or may not even be an upgrade from Pina.

 

And from Lucroy's perspective, he probably has a better shot at more starts elsewhere where he doesn't have to compete as much for them with someone like Pina.

 

It makes little to no sense for either side.

[bill hAll Star]

 

In terms of replaceable organizational depth, I think most fans would like to see the Brewers acquire a TOR pitcher. With the depth of Santana, Broxton, Brinson, Phillips, Harrison, Ray, Lutz, Stokes, etc...and only 3 OF spots to play them, it would seem apparent they have enough depth to deal from here to fill other spots where they are lacking.

 

Not that we couldn’t draft/acquire sign more, but chances are that the depth will not look so great there in 2 years. We’ll just say for sake of example that Ray and Stokes never make the majors. Brinson’s a 2 WAR guy, Phillips is a 4th OF, and Broxton is dealt. Now what do you have for your 2020 and beyond outlook? Not much. Maybe Harrison is the bust of the group and we luckily trade him away, but I just won’t etch the depth in stone.

 

I don’t think this list has several sure-fire All Stars in it, so one could argue keeping as many as possible may still be advantageous.

 

I’m not arguing against dealing from a position of depth to fill another position, but I’m just saying the “well, we’ve got a bunch of em” argument usually does not end up becoming true.

[KeithStone53151]

 

In terms of replaceable organizational depth, I think most fans would like to see the Brewers acquire a TOR pitcher. With the depth of Santana, Broxton, Brinson, Phillips, Harrison, Ray, Lutz, Stokes, etc...and only 3 OF spots to play them, it would seem apparent they have enough depth to deal from here to fill other spots where they are lacking.

 

Not that we couldn’t draft/acquire sign more, but chances are that the depth will not look so great there in 2 years. We’ll just say for sake of example that Ray and Stokes never make the majors. Brinson’s a 2 WAR guy, Phillips is a 4th OF, and Broxton is dealt. Now what do you have for your 2020 and beyond outlook? Not much. Maybe Harrison is the bust of the group and we luckily trade him away, but I just won’t etch the depth in stone.

 

I don’t think this list has several sure-fire All Stars in it, so one could argue keeping as many as possible may still be advantageous.

 

I’m not arguing against dealing from a position of depth to fill another position, but I’m just saying the “well, we’ve got a bunch of em” argument usually does not end up becoming true.

 

You make a great point regarding OF prospects. We might feel more comfortable trading someone like Harrison at the deadline if other prospects bounce back or one of Phillips or brinson establish themselves to some degree. A couple years ago, I felt fantastic about our bullpen depth at all levels. A few trades later(good trades mind you) I'm clamoring to pay sticker price for a high end setup guy because we need it. The same could easily happen with our outfield situation if we make a couple trades and certain prospects don't pan out.

[3and2Fastball]

My biggest hope for the Brewers is that they increase payroll to $150 million or so, or Mark A sells the team. Seriously. I feel like Brewers fans are being scammed by this current ownership group, and a ton of otherwise very smart fans are apologists for the method of operations. Mark A has doubled his money since buying the Brewers, the TV revenue is increasing, merch sales are increasing, and yet we get sold a bill of goods that the Brewers cannot afford a high payroll.

 

The ownership group are extremely wealthy people. Us beer drinkin' tail gatin' hardcore fans want a World Series, not excuses. Yes continue to build a great, sustainable farm system, but there is no reason why the Brewers cannot add literally $75 million a year in pitching payroll in order to have a better chance to compete.

 

Or, please, please Mark, sell the team to someone who will do that!

[KeithStone53151]

My biggest hope for the Brewers is that they increase payroll to $150 million or so, or Mark A sells the team. Seriously. I feel like Brewers fans are being scammed by this current ownership group, and a ton of otherwise very smart fans are apologists for the method of operations. Mark A has doubled his money since buying the Brewers, the TV revenue is increasing, merch sales are increasing, and yet we get sold a bill of goods that the Brewers cannot afford a high payroll.

 

The ownership group are extremely wealthy people. Us beer drinkin' tail gatin' hardcore fans want a World Series, not excuses. Yes continue to build a great, sustainable farm system, but there is no reason why the Brewers cannot add literally $75 million a year in pitching payroll in order to have a better chance to compete.

 

Or, please, please Mark, sell the team to someone who will do that!

 

I tend to think the Brewers can and will increase payroll beyond the $100 or 110 million mark in future seasons. $150 million might be a stretch, but a consistent $110 with the ability to go to $130ish in competing years is probably realistic. Even with a higher payroll threshold, we can't afford to take on a $20 million bad contract. That would cause serious problems in future years.

[dacbrewers]

What happens in 2019 or 2020 when MLB expands. Is every player not on 40 man roster eligible to be drafted by expansion teams? Anyone know the rules on this?

[bill hAll Star]

 

In terms of replaceable organizational depth, I think most fans would like to see the Brewers acquire a TOR pitcher. With the depth of Santana, Broxton, Brinson, Phillips, Harrison, Ray, Lutz, Stokes, etc...and only 3 OF spots to play them, it would seem apparent they have enough depth to deal from here to fill other spots where they are lacking.

 

Not that we couldn’t draft/acquire sign more, but chances are that the depth will not look so great there in 2 years. We’ll just say for sake of example that Ray and Stokes never make the majors. Brinson’s a 2 WAR guy, Phillips is a 4th OF, and Broxton is dealt. Now what do you have for your 2020 and beyond outlook? Not much. Maybe Harrison is the bust of the group and we luckily trade him away, but I just won’t etch the depth in stone.

 

I don’t think this list has several sure-fire All Stars in it, so one could argue keeping as many as possible may still be advantageous.

 

I’m not arguing against dealing from a position of depth to fill another position, but I’m just saying the “well, we’ve got a bunch of em” argument usually does not end up becoming true.

 

You make a great point regarding OF prospects. We might feel more comfortable trading someone like Harrison at the deadline if other prospects bounce back or one of Phillips or brinson establish themselves to some degree. A couple years ago, I felt fantastic about our bullpen depth at all levels. A few trades later(good trades mind you) I'm clamoring to pay sticker price for a high end setup guy because we need it. The same could easily happen with our outfield situation if we make a couple trades and certain prospects don't pan out.

 

Further, I've stated my cautious optimism about this team being a little bit below the Cubs and maybe on par with the Cards right now but a lot of uncertainty. I'd rather wait until the trade deadline to make this deal. How depressing would it be to make this deal prior to the season and find out that we're still 5 games worse than the Cubs?

[Warning Track Power]

 

In terms of replaceable organizational depth, I think most fans would like to see the Brewers acquire a TOR pitcher. With the depth of Santana, Broxton, Brinson, Phillips, Harrison, Ray, Lutz, Stokes, etc...and only 3 OF spots to play them, it would seem apparent they have enough depth to deal from here to fill other spots where they are lacking.

 

Not that we couldn’t draft/acquire sign more, but chances are that the depth will not look so great there in 2 years. We’ll just say for sake of example that Ray and Stokes never make the majors. Brinson’s a 2 WAR guy, Phillips is a 4th OF, and Broxton is dealt. Now what do you have for your 2020 and beyond outlook? Not much. Maybe Harrison is the bust of the group and we luckily trade him away, but I just won’t etch the depth in stone.

 

I don’t think this list has several sure-fire All Stars in it, so one could argue keeping as many as possible may still be advantageous.

 

I’m not arguing against dealing from a position of depth to fill another position, but I’m just saying the “well, we’ve got a bunch of em” argument usually does not end up becoming true.

I hear you and think you make a great point that the depth could be depleted quickly if Brinson is merely a 2 WAR player and Phillips is a 4th OF. I am certainly not advocating a "we've got a bunch of them, deal them" strategy either. At this point though, with Braun still in LF, Domingo established in RF and Broxton, Phillips and Brinson MLB-ready, I am comfortable moving some OF depth for SP.

[clancyphile]

 

In terms of replaceable organizational depth, I think most fans would like to see the Brewers acquire a TOR pitcher. With the depth of Santana, Broxton, Brinson, Phillips, Harrison, Ray, Lutz, Stokes, etc...and only 3 OF spots to play them, it would seem apparent they have enough depth to deal from here to fill other spots where they are lacking.

 

Not that we couldn’t draft/acquire sign more, but chances are that the depth will not look so great there in 2 years. We’ll just say for sake of example that Ray and Stokes never make the majors. Brinson’s a 2 WAR guy, Phillips is a 4th OF, and Broxton is dealt. Now what do you have for your 2020 and beyond outlook? Not much. Maybe Harrison is the bust of the group and we luckily trade him away, but I just won’t etch the depth in stone.

 

I don’t think this list has several sure-fire All Stars in it, so one could argue keeping as many as possible may still be advantageous.

 

I’m not arguing against dealing from a position of depth to fill another position, but I’m just saying the “well, we’ve got a bunch of em” argument usually does not end up becoming true.

I hear you and think you make a great point that the depth could be depleted quickly if Brinson is merely a 2 WAR player and Phillips is a 4th OF. I am certainly not advocating a "we've got a bunch of them, deal them" strategy either. At this point though, with Braun still in LF, Domingo established in RF and Broxton, Phillips and Brinson MLB-ready, I am comfortable moving some OF depth for SP.

 

I agree, although who gets moved will differ.

 

At this point, I'd be willing to deal Brinson for the right package.

 

The more I look at the stats Stokes has put up, the more I see him becoming the Brewers' Altuve. He doesn't have Altuve's hit-for-average tool, but he does have very good OBP skills, speed, and has developed power. So, at this point, I'd keep Stokes, and see if he can develop the hit-for-average tool as he developed power, and deal Brinson.

[Warning Track Power]

I agree, although who gets moved will differ.

 

At this point, I'd be willing to deal Brinson for the right package.

 

The more I look at the stats Stokes has put up, the more I see him becoming the Brewers' Altuve. He doesn't have Altuve's hit-for-average tool, but he does have very good OBP skills, speed, and has developed power. So, at this point, I'd keep Stokes, and see if he can develop the hit-for-average tool as he developed power, and deal Brinson.

I look at Stokes statistics and see Khris Davis. I wonder what value he has given his power/speed potential (albeit at 5'8").

[bill hAll Star]

I guess I can formally state my plan for 2017-2018 after I've debated/argued this point that I'd like to just keep the majority of these prospects in our system and hopefully 1 or 2 will rise to the top as a good MLB player at every position...and maybe some depth will amass behind it. At that point, I may consider dealing from positions of strength. I think people are all too confident in one particular player at one particular position. Give me 5 candidates for a position in the minors system and maybe we'll have one good MLB one with one in the pipeline after him out of those 5.

 

Doesn't mean I'm not for a prospect(s) for All Star trade down the road or even now, but we seem to be heading towards a great pipeline of players in the organization. I don't think it's the time to cash out of that to still likely play 2nd fiddle to the Cubs just yet.

[clancyphile]

I agree, although who gets moved will differ.

 

At this point, I'd be willing to deal Brinson for the right package.

 

The more I look at the stats Stokes has put up, the more I see him becoming the Brewers' Altuve. He doesn't have Altuve's hit-for-average tool, but he does have very good OBP skills, speed, and has developed power. So, at this point, I'd keep Stokes, and see if he can develop the hit-for-average tool as he developed power, and deal Brinson.

I look at Stokes statistics and see Khris Davis. I wonder what value he has given his power/speed potential (albeit at 5'8").

 

I'd say a lot.

 

Davis never showed the speed Stokes did (41 SB total in minors for Davis, 95 so far for Stokes). Davis also was older as he moved up. Stokes was 21 this past year - Davis was 21 in Rookie league.

 

Even if Stokes is a faster Davis, the Crew has him on the upswing.