What is your 2017-2018 off-season plan for the Brewers?

[KeithStone53151]

I'm super curious why just about every bf.net person wants to trade Brinson. And it's not so much that you'd move him in the right deal, everyone seems in a hurry to trade him this offseason for whoever the best SP is that we can get...or more recently in a package for Yelich. Is the thought to have a Broxton/Phillips platoon? Were the handful of at bats we saw from Phillips in September enough to make Brinson expendable? I'm honestly curious, Brinson is the best position prospect we've had hit the majors in years and very few people want him to play for the Brewers.

[pacopete4]

I'm super curious why just about every bf.net person wants to trade Brinson. And it's not so much that you'd move him in the right deal, everyone seems in a hurry to trade him this offseason for whoever the best SP is that we can get...or more recently in a package for Yelich. Is the thought to have a Broxton/Phillips platoon? Were the handful of at bats we saw from Phillips in September enough to make Brinson expendable? I'm honestly curious, Brinson is the best position prospect we've had hit the majors in years and very few people want him to play for the Brewers.

 

For me it is that he is never healthy at the young age that he's at so why should I trust that he'll be healthy during the course of his major league career? I would just rather get something of great value (Yelich) than to roll the dice on a guy that seems to find the DL every few months.

[TURBO]

I'm super curious why just about every bf.net person wants to trade Brinson. And it's not so much that you'd move him in the right deal, everyone seems in a hurry to trade him this offseason for whoever the best SP is that we can get...or more recently in a package for Yelich. Is the thought to have a Broxton/Phillips platoon? Were the handful of at bats we saw from Phillips in September enough to make Brinson expendable? I'm honestly curious, Brinson is the best position prospect we've had hit the majors in years and very few people want him to play for the Brewers.

 

For me it is that he is never healthy at the young age that he's at so why should I trust that he'll be healthy during the course of his major league career? I would just rather get something of great value (Yelich) than to roll the dice on a guy that seems to find the DL every few months.

 

This is exactly how I feel... I'd rather get a great piece and take the risk that he becomes a super star for someone else, than risk keeping him so he can never reach his potential due to injuries...

[monty57]

Brewers Off-Season Plan:

 

Trades:

1. w/Marlins for Yelich-CF (Brinson)

2. w/White Sox for Abreu-1B (Thames, Ray, +?)

3. w/Phillies for Hernandez-2B (Villar, +)

 

Free Agents:

Sign Yu Darvish (5 yr, $145M)

Re-sign Swarzak (2yr, $12M)

Sign Lucroy (2yr, $21M)

CC Sabathia (1yr, 13.5M)

 

 

Lineup:(8)

1. Hernandez- 2B

2. Yelich- CF

3. Braun- LF

4. Abreu- 1B

5. Santana- RF

6. Shaw- 3B

7. Lucroy- C

8. Arcia- SS

-Bench:(5) Phillips, Sogard, Perez, Pina, Aguilar

 

Rotation: (5)

Darvish

Anderson

Davies

Sabathia

Woodruff (Nelson, hopefully in July?)

 

Bullpen: (7)

CL- Knebel

SU- Hader

SU- Swarzak

MR- Williams

MR-Jeffress

MR- Hughes

LR- Suter

 

We're at a projected payroll right now of around $65.5M. You'd drop around $7M and add around $79.4M in salary, putting us somewhere around $138M in payroll in 2018, and that would go up substantially in the next few seasons with arby raises. There's no way we could do that.

[pacopete4]

Brewers Off-Season Plan:

 

Trades:

1. w/Marlins for Yelich-CF (Brinson)

2. w/White Sox for Abreu-1B (Thames, Ray, +?)

3. w/Phillies for Hernandez-2B (Villar, +)

 

Free Agents:

Sign Yu Darvish (5 yr, $145M)

Re-sign Swarzak (2yr, $12M)

Sign Lucroy (2yr, $21M)

CC Sabathia (1yr, 13.5M)

 

 

Lineup:(8)

1. Hernandez- 2B

2. Yelich- CF

3. Braun- LF

4. Abreu- 1B

5. Santana- RF

6. Shaw- 3B

7. Lucroy- C

8. Arcia- SS

-Bench:(5) Phillips, Sogard, Perez, Pina, Aguilar

 

Rotation: (5)

Darvish

Anderson

Davies

Sabathia

Woodruff (Nelson, hopefully in July?)

 

Bullpen: (7)

CL- Knebel

SU- Hader

SU- Swarzak

MR- Williams

MR-Jeffress

MR- Hughes

LR- Suter

 

We're at a projected payroll right now of around $65.5M. You'd drop around $7M and add around $79.4M in salary, putting us somewhere around $138M in payroll in 2018, and that would go up substantially in the next few seasons with arby raises. There's no way we could do that.

 

Like other posters have said. Not my money. Spend it. That's a world series team right there. We can make a further trade come July if we want to sure up the pen or rotation even further.

[KeithStone53151]

I'm super curious why just about every bf.net person wants to trade Brinson. And it's not so much that you'd move him in the right deal, everyone seems in a hurry to trade him this offseason for whoever the best SP is that we can get...or more recently in a package for Yelich. Is the thought to have a Broxton/Phillips platoon? Were the handful of at bats we saw from Phillips in September enough to make Brinson expendable? I'm honestly curious, Brinson is the best position prospect we've had hit the majors in years and very few people want him to play for the Brewers.

 

For me it is that he is never healthy at the young age that he's at so why should I trust that he'll be healthy during the course of his major league career? I would just rather get something of great value (Yelich) than to roll the dice on a guy that seems to find the DL every few months.

 

This is exactly how I feel... I'd rather get a great piece and take the risk that he becomes a super star for someone else, than risk keeping him so he can never reach his potential due to injuries...

 

Do you guys have similar concerns for Harrison, Ortiz, Grisham(Clark), Ray, etc? Do you want to trade all of those guys because they got hurt once or twice? It's not like Brinson blew out a knee or hurt a wrist like Weeks to the point that he'll never be the same. He's played roughly 100 game each of the last 3 seasons. The injuries he's had have been simple muscle strains, these types of things happen to plenty of good players. If that's your only reasoning, it's absolutely terrible reasoning to trade away a top prospect.

[KeithStone53151]

Brewers Off-Season Plan:

 

Trades:

1. w/Marlins for Yelich-CF (Brinson)

2. w/White Sox for Abreu-1B (Thames, Ray, +?)

3. w/Phillies for Hernandez-2B (Villar, +)

 

Free Agents:

Sign Yu Darvish (5 yr, $145M)

Re-sign Swarzak (2yr, $12M)

Sign Lucroy (2yr, $21M)

CC Sabathia (1yr, 13.5M)

 

 

Lineup:(8)

1. Hernandez- 2B

2. Yelich- CF

3. Braun- LF

4. Abreu- 1B

5. Santana- RF

6. Shaw- 3B

7. Lucroy- C

8. Arcia- SS

-Bench:(5) Phillips, Sogard, Perez, Pina, Aguilar

 

Rotation: (5)

Darvish

Anderson

Davies

Sabathia

Woodruff (Nelson, hopefully in July?)

 

Bullpen: (7)

CL- Knebel

SU- Hader

SU- Swarzak

MR- Williams

MR-Jeffress

MR- Hughes

LR- Suter

 

We're at a projected payroll right now of around $65.5M. You'd drop around $7M and add around $79.4M in salary, putting us somewhere around $138M in payroll in 2018, and that would go up substantially in the next few seasons with arby raises. There's no way we could do that.

 

Like other posters have said. Not my money. Spend it. That's a world series team right there. We can make a further trade come July if we want to sure up the pen or rotation even further.

 

Let us all know when you come back from dream land and want to make a reasonable projection of what the Brewers can actually do with their spending versus what you think they should do because "who cares, not my money". That up there, is pure nonsense...and that's about as kindly as I can put it. Might as well recommend in 2018 we sign both Harper and Machado because "it's not your money".

[monty57]

Like other posters have said. Not my money. Spend it. That's a world series team right there. We can make a further trade come July if we want to sure up the pen or rotation even further.

 

I'm not sure if I'm supposed to laugh or shake my head.

 

The Brewers don't have that much money, so they can't spend that kind of money. This isn't a situation of "the owners won't make as much money," this is a situation of purposefully losing $30M+ on an annual basis, driving the franchise to bankruptcy. The other owners would force Attanasio to sell the franchise if he did something like that.

[bill hAll Star]

Like other posters have said. Not my money. Spend it. That's a world series team right there. We can make a further trade come July if we want to sure up the pen or rotation even further.

 

I'm not sure if I'm supposed to laugh or shake my head.

 

The Brewers don't have that much money, so they can't spend that kind of money. This isn't a situation of "the owners won't make as much money," this is a situation of purposefully losing $30M+ on an annual basis, driving the franchise to bankruptcy. The other owners would force Attanasio to sell the franchise if he did something like that.

 

I could maybe...maybe imagine Mark going to $130-140 2 years in a row before letting payroll sink back to the low $100s if he really wanted to go for it. However, all of the stuff to come together right now to make it work probably won't happen.

 

My issue is that those trades are not realistic. Even on a high dollar, 1 year deal, I'm not sure CC is coming here. He might get 2/$25 from someone.

 

We'd have to unload the farm for the listed trades. The "+" in those would equate to half of the farm system.

 

For 2018, if we made all of the moves listed, we'd have about $50 million before all of those guys join the roster when you factor out Villar, Thames, Vogt, and a few minimum contracts no longer needed from the $65 million projection that cot's has right now.

 

Yelich 7, Hernandez 4.5, Abreu 17, Darvish 25 (slightly backloaded), CC 13.5, Lucroy 10, Swarzak 5.

 

That'll get you to around $130. 2019 would be a challenge. Yeah, CC's deal is gone in this scenario, but you'd have a lot of arbitration raises to have a hard time staying under $140/150.

 

The bad TV deal ends in 2019, so maybe if the bubble has not burst yet, the Brewers will really start to spend after that season.

[KeithStone53151]

Like other posters have said. Not my money. Spend it. That's a world series team right there. We can make a further trade come July if we want to sure up the pen or rotation even further.

 

I'm not sure if I'm supposed to laugh or shake my head.

 

The Brewers don't have that much money, so they can't spend that kind of money. This isn't a situation of "the owners won't make as much money," this is a situation of purposefully losing $30M+ on an annual basis, driving the franchise to bankruptcy. The other owners would force Attanasio to sell the franchise if he did something like that.

 

I could maybe...maybe imagine Mark going to $130-140 2 years in a row before letting payroll sink back to the low $100s if he really wanted to go for it. However, all of the stuff to come together right now to make it work probably won't happen.

 

My issue is that those trades are not realistic. Even on a high dollar, 1 year deal, I'm not sure CC is coming here. He might get 2/$25 from someone.

 

We'd have to unload the farm for the listed trades. The "+" in those would equate to half of the farm system.

 

For 2018, if we made all of the moves listed, we'd have about $50 million before all of those guys join the roster when you factor out Villar, Thames, Vogt, and a few minimum contracts no longer needed from the $65 million projection that cot's has right now.

 

Yelich - 7, Hernandez 4.5, Abreu 17, Darvish 25 (slightly backloaded), CC 13.5, Lucroy 10, Swarzak 5.

 

That'll get you to around $130. 2019 would be a challenge. Yeah, CC's deal is gone in this scenario, but you'd have a lot of arbitration raises to have a hard time staying under $140/150.

 

I don't think he'd get such negative comments if he tried to defend his position as you have. The "it's not my money, spend it" comment is....yeah. Might as well suggest trading Brinson/Ortiz/Burnes/Hiura for Trout and sign Kershaw/Harper in 2018. It's all pure nonsense once you make such an asinine comment.

[bill hAll Star]

Yeah, I just like to play out all of the salary cap situations. I was not really agreeing with the plan or the "it's not my money" comment.

[pacopete4]

 

I don't think he'd get such negative comments if he tried to defend his position as you have. The "it's not my money, spend it" comment is....yeah. Might as well suggest trading Brinson/Ortiz/Burnes/Hiura for Trout and sign Kershaw/Harper in 2018. It's all pure nonsense once you make such an asinine comment.

 

I’ve never seen someone so offended by something so insignificant. I put together a team that I’d like to see for the Brewers. Do I think it’s going to happen? Uh, no. But that’s not the point of the thread. So take your know it all, jerk-like comments elsewhere. Disagree with my post but boy, talk about over the top.

 

 

Bill All Star, I do appreciate the work you put into justifying the moves. I think they could spend that money for a short period as well. Heck, maybe we would actually win something in the process.

 

I'm not sure if I'm supposed to laugh or shake my head.

 

Laugh Monty. You’ll feel better.

[pacopete4]

 

 

Do you guys have similar concerns for Harrison, Ortiz, Grisham(Clark), Ray, etc? Do you want to trade all of those guys because they got hurt once or twice? It's not like Brinson blew out a knee or hurt a wrist like Weeks to the point that he'll never be the same. He's played roughly 100 game each of the last 3 seasons. The injuries he's had have been simple muscle strains, these types of things happen to plenty of good players. If that's your only reasoning, it's absolutely terrible reasoning to trade away a top prospect.

 

Jesus. Bad day?!? You asked a question and two of us answered. You must be on a war path to changing people’s minds today.

[coolhandluke121]

Brewers Off-Season Plan:

 

Trades:

1. w/Marlins for Yelich-CF (Brinson)

2. w/White Sox for Abreu-1B (Thames, Ray, +?)

3. w/Phillies for Hernandez-2B (Villar, +)

 

Free Agents:

Sign Yu Darvish (5 yr, $145M)

Re-sign Swarzak (2yr, $12M)

Sign Lucroy (2yr, $21M)

CC Sabathia (1yr, 13.5M)

 

 

Lineup:(8)

1. Hernandez- 2B

2. Yelich- CF

3. Braun- LF

4. Abreu- 1B

5. Santana- RF

6. Shaw- 3B

7. Lucroy- C

8. Arcia- SS

-Bench:(5) Phillips, Sogard, Perez, Pina, Aguilar

 

Rotation: (5)

Darvish

Anderson

Davies

Sabathia

Woodruff (Nelson, hopefully in July?)

 

Bullpen: (7)

CL- Knebel

SU- Hader

SU- Swarzak

MR- Williams

MR-Jeffress

MR- Hughes

LR- Suter

 

Would like this outcome even if there's some moves here I could do without (mainly Darvish). The problem is I don't think it's realistic. C.C. is going to get more than that, both in salary and years. 2/$40m wouldn't shock me. Ray probably doesn't get you Hernandez, let alone Abreu, and you're overrating Thames on the trade market if you think he makes up the difference. Villar is not getting you anything of consequence until he has a good year again. Even Brinson straight-up for Yelich is a stretch. I'm not opposed to the idea of making the kind of dramatic improvements you suggest, but I think there are better ways to do it.

[coolhandluke121]

 

For me it is that he is never healthy at the young age that he's at so why should I trust that he'll be healthy during the course of his major league career? I would just rather get something of great value (Yelich) than to roll the dice on a guy that seems to find the DL every few months.

 

This is exactly how I feel... I'd rather get a great piece and take the risk that he becomes a super star for someone else, than risk keeping him so he can never reach his potential due to injuries...

 

Do you guys have similar concerns for Harrison, Ortiz, Grisham(Clark), Ray, etc? Do you want to trade all of those guys because they got hurt once or twice? It's not like Brinson blew out a knee or hurt a wrist like Weeks to the point that he'll never be the same. He's played roughly 100 game each of the last 3 seasons. The injuries he's had have been simple muscle strains, these types of things happen to plenty of good players. If that's your only reasoning, it's absolutely terrible reasoning to trade away a top prospect.

 

He injures his hamstrings over and over again, and that's not a good sign at his age. It could be a sign of a biomechanics issue or something like that. You're dismissing it too easily. Furthermore, just because he's by far the best prospect the Brewers have had in years doesn't mean he's actually a really good one; it just means their minor league system sucked for a long time. He's no better than Hardy or Hart as a prospect IMO, and frankly his k% in the minors is a bit of a concern too.

 

I don't always subscribe to the idea of keeping all your prospects and always building from within. It just depends on the players and the circumstances. One mantra I do subscribe to is selling high as much as possible, and the only thing that consistently trumps that is realistic chances at a world series berth. I do think trading Brinson would be selling high while simultaneously increasing their chances at a ws, and there is an organizational depth/needs argument for trading him as well. I wouldn't have supported Brinson for Sonny Gray, but Yelich is a much better value than Gray, all things considered.

[StearnsFTW]

Brewers Off-Season Plan:

 

Trades:

1. w/Marlins for Yelich-CF (Brinson)

2. w/White Sox for Abreu-1B (Thames, Ray, +?)

3. w/Phillies for Hernandez-2B (Villar, +)

 

Free Agents:

Sign Yu Darvish (5 yr, $145M)

Re-sign Swarzak (2yr, $12M)

Sign Lucroy (2yr, $21M)

CC Sabathia (1yr, 13.5M)

 

 

Lineup:(8)

1. Hernandez- 2B

2. Yelich- CF

3. Braun- LF

4. Abreu- 1B

5. Santana- RF

6. Shaw- 3B

7. Lucroy- C

8. Arcia- SS

-Bench:(5) Phillips, Sogard, Perez, Pina, Aguilar

 

Rotation: (5)

Darvish

Anderson

Davies

Sabathia

Woodruff (Nelson, hopefully in July?)

 

Bullpen: (7)

CL- Knebel

SU- Hader

SU- Swarzak

MR- Williams

MR-Jeffress

MR- Hughes

LR- Suter

 

Would like this outcome even if there's some moves here I could do without (mainly Darvish). The problem is I don't think it's realistic. C.C. is going to get more than that, both in salary and years. 2/$40m wouldn't shock me. Ray probably doesn't get you Hernandez, let alone Abreu, and you're overrating Thames on the trade market if you think he makes up the difference. Villar is not getting you anything of consequence until he has a good year again. Even Brinson straight-up for Yelich is a stretch. I'm not opposed to the idea of making the kind of dramatic improvements you suggest, but I think there are better ways to do it.

 

Anything is possible, but I would be completely amazed if Sabathia for $20MM AAV. I also don't think he'll sign a one year deal, but he's simply not worth what you're projecting.

 

I agree with much of your other analysis.

 

For my part, I'm pretty much staying the course. Any FA contracts need to be 2 years max, 3 if it's a perfect fit guy. This team is going to start getting expensive in 2020.

[Jenkins5]

Did Brinson not just have hamstring surgery? I’d say any hamstring issues can be issues for future... surgery makes it more than a strain.

 

I’m only trading Brinson for an All-Star who makes use better. Yelich is an upgrade right now. I’ll take his .290 hitting 20/20 offense, and him walking 10% of time while k’ing sub 20%. If we want TOR only reason to include Brinson is he is our best piece. Not rocket science.... you want a great piece....you need to trade a great piece.... as simple as that. It’s not that we all think he is a bust & needs to quickly go. That said I’m I have zero issue trading Ortiz in any deal that could bring back good value because I’m not as high on him. Woodruff, Burns, Peralta I think are all above him.

[KeithStone53151]

 

This is exactly how I feel... I'd rather get a great piece and take the risk that he becomes a super star for someone else, than risk keeping him so he can never reach his potential due to injuries...

 

Do you guys have similar concerns for Harrison, Ortiz, Grisham(Clark), Ray, etc? Do you want to trade all of those guys because they got hurt once or twice? It's not like Brinson blew out a knee or hurt a wrist like Weeks to the point that he'll never be the same. He's played roughly 100 game each of the last 3 seasons. The injuries he's had have been simple muscle strains, these types of things happen to plenty of good players. If that's your only reasoning, it's absolutely terrible reasoning to trade away a top prospect.

 

He injures his hamstrings over and over again, and that's not a good sign at his age. It could be a sign of a biomechanics issue or something like that. You're dismissing it too easily. Furthermore, just because he's by far the best prospect the Brewers have had in years doesn't mean he's actually a really good one; it just means their minor league system sucked for a long time. He's no better than Hardy or Hart as a prospect IMO, and frankly his k% in the minors is a bit of a concern too.

 

I don't always subscribe to the idea of keeping all your prospects and always building from within. It just depends on the players and the circumstances. One mantra I do subscribe to is selling high as much as possible, and the only thing that consistently trumps that is realistic chances at a world series berth. I do think trading Brinson would be selling high while simultaneously increasing their chances at a ws, and there is an organizational depth/needs argument for trading him as well. I wouldn't have supported Brinson for Sonny Gray, but Yelich is a much better value than Gray, all things considered.

 

I can understand k rate concerns and trying to sell high. I just don't agree and am not overly concerned with the k rate. As far as selling high, brinson would have immensely more value if he had even a decent season in the majors. If he could post a 750 or better ops with plus defense and 20 sb, his value sky rockets. I also don't subscribe to the window theory, which is what trading prospects for established players tends to lead to. I'm aiming for consistently competitive which is what building around your own prospects can lead to if you do it right.

 

I think brinson is a better caliber prospect than those guys. He's more toolsy and more athletic than either of them could dream of being. His upside is world's above both as well, while coming with a bit more risk. I tend to agree yelich is better value than gray, but my preferred route is building from within. I also don't buy the Marlins are seriously considering trading yelich.

 

I believe he hurt a different hamstring each time, and it was twice. Also had a quad and shoulder injury. None of those injuries are long term concerns, maybe if it was the same hammy 3 times I'd be mildly more concerned.

[Jenkins5]

Marlins have been pretty public about selling off all high price tags on team. Yelich has ton of value so won’t be free but they will trade him most likely. 7,9.5,12, 14, 15 million is is more than the pre arby 500k they prefer moving in new direction. Stanton, Ozuna, Gordon, Yelich will almost certainly be gone by at least mid season at latest.

 

I do think you under value Yelich. He’s is an All-Star caliber kid on the rise. As I said I wouldn’t be shocked if he’s 30/30 guy at some point before contract is up. At least 25/25.

 

I love Brinson & what he COULD be but I love what Yelich IS and can continue to be. Brinson I see developing like Buxton. Very similar players & athletes. Don’t see Brinson coming out and light world on fire right away. He will take some time. If we want to compete now and not wait until 2019 or 2020 we need proven guys to get it done now.

 

I have always been prospects & develop guy & still am but I just feel it is becoming realistic that DS may look like the Astros to bring in some attainable proven aspects

[adambr2]

 

I don't think he'd get such negative comments if he tried to defend his position as you have. The "it's not my money, spend it" comment is....yeah. Might as well suggest trading Brinson/Ortiz/Burnes/Hiura for Trout and sign Kershaw/Harper in 2018. It's all pure nonsense once you make such an asinine comment.

 

I’ve never seen someone so offended by something so insignificant. I put together a team that I’d like to see for the Brewers. Do I think it’s going to happen? Uh, no. But that’s not the point of the thread. So take your know it all, jerk-like comments elsewhere. Disagree with my post but boy, talk about over the top.

 

 

Bill All Star, I do appreciate the work you put into justifying the moves. I think they could spend that money for a short period as well. Heck, maybe we would actually win something in the process.

 

I'm not sure if I'm supposed to laugh or shake my head.

 

Laugh Monty. You’ll feel better.

 

Alright, since it's been brought up, let's talk payroll and salaries.

 

First, what do we know as facts? Well, not much, they don't have many guaranteed contracts for 2018 right now. But assuming most of their pre-arby and arbitration eligible guys are back, let's say we're looking at around $60M in committed payroll again.

 

Now, what is their breakeven point? That's again a lot of guesswork. But based on recent revenue numbers, and assuming a slight increase in revenue with additional payroll spending, I'll throw out $125M as a point where Mark A. would neither gain nor lose money on the Brewers.

 

So, what's an acceptable annual gain for him? Let's be blunt -- Mark A. bought the Brewers to make money. He is a businessman and the Brewers are an investment. Yes, he's willing to spend. No, he's not going to be willing to operate in the red, at least not long-term, nor should he be expected to be. I'll again just estimate $15M as an acceptable average return, which gives the Brewers a current payroll ceiling of about $110M. That seems in the ballpark to me.

 

That would give us about $50M to invest, which sounds like a lot but goes quickly once you dole out a couple 8 figure a year contracts. There is always a ceiling and every dollar spent gets you closer to that ceiling. This is why I will never understand when people say things like, 'So what if we're paying this guy 20M a year? It isn't stopping us from spending.' It's why I can never understand advocating for a bad investment at 'only' $10M per year simply because 'we can afford it.'

 

I can probably swing a couple hundred dollars a month on unicycle lessons if I really want to. That doesn't make it a good idea. If I managed my household budget the way some people want Mark to manage the payroll I'd be in trouble in a hurry.

[adambr2]

I'm super curious why just about every bf.net person wants to trade Brinson. And it's not so much that you'd move him in the right deal, everyone seems in a hurry to trade him this offseason for whoever the best SP is that we can get...or more recently in a package for Yelich. Is the thought to have a Broxton/Phillips platoon? Were the handful of at bats we saw from Phillips in September enough to make Brinson expendable? I'm honestly curious, Brinson is the best position prospect we've had hit the majors in years and very few people want him to play for the Brewers.

 

Now I'll go the other way and agree with Brew on this one. For one I think it's an exaggeration to say just about every bf.net person wants to trade Brinson. Maybe I'm wrong but I don't get that impression.

 

Now on Brinson, yes, he's the best prospect we've had in some time. But that's exactly what makes him a valuable commodity. You have to give up something to get something, and so it makes sense to use a position of surplus like the OF to address a position of weakness. Sure, we'd all love to send Corey Ray out for Archer or Yelich, but again, have to give up something to get something. And yeah , I think you could move forward with a Phillips/Broxton platoon and be well above average in CF. Albeit in a small sample size, I really liked what I saw from Phillips and think he can be a 3 WAR type player in center.

 

So if he is, my counterargument to the crowd that is totally against trading Brinson, is what you're going to do with Brinson/Phillips. Braun and Santana clearly aren't going anywhere soon, so you've only got 1 position open. Platooning Brinson against LHP obviously makes no sense at all and would be a waste. You could opt to trade Santana instead, who I would guess has pretty comparable trade value to Brinson, but given that we won 86 games last year, it's safer to stick with the proven commodity, especially when the proven commodity is also young and controlled, and has less of an injury concern.

 

And the concerns about Brinson possibly being injury prone are legitimate arguments. As much as we get on Braun for injuries, Brinson is comparable in that way at a much younger age which is kind of scary.

 

I'm not insisting that we trade Brinson, but I think we'd be foolish not to at least be open to it. And that has nothing to do with how people view him as a prospect, besides the mentioned injury concerns.

[Jenkins5]

Like I have said, it all is about when we truly want to compete. Brinson in CF could be a big factor for us in 2020 for sure, hopefully click in 2019 but he is not going to help us make a run this season. There is a learning curve and he should last year he will have on. Brinson is preferred to retain over Yelich due to cost with both ceilings being very high, however, Yelich makes us better now. Brinson we have to wait to make us better. Same goes with SP Woodruff and the rest could be big parts for us but for 2018 it is safer to put your faith in Archer to help us make a run. It is nothing personal or against the players. Simply if Brewers want to make a run now in 2018, they need moves to do so. If they are okay with this year being about growth like last year and hoping things fall in place to make run in 2019, 2020...we keep them. End of day it is up to Stearns and Mark A about how fast do they want to compete now that we have the talent to make big moves to get key pieces.

[coolhandluke121]

 

I can understand k rate concerns and trying to sell high. I just don't agree and am not overly concerned with the k rate. As far as selling high, brinson would have immensely more value if he had even a decent season in the majors. If he could post a 750 or better ops with plus defense and 20 sb, his value sky rockets. I also don't subscribe to the window theory, which is what trading prospects for established players tends to lead to. I'm aiming for consistently competitive which is what building around your own prospects can lead to if you do it right.

 

I think brinson is a better caliber prospect than those guys. He's more toolsy and more athletic than either of them could dream of being. His upside is world's above both as well, while coming with a bit more risk. I tend to agree yelich is better value than gray, but my preferred route is building from within. I also don't buy the Marlins are seriously considering trading yelich.

 

I believe he hurt a different hamstring each time, and it was twice. Also had a quad and shoulder injury. None of those injuries are long term concerns, maybe if it was the same hammy 3 times I'd be mildly more concerned.

 

Corey Hart was more "toolsy" than Brinson in the minors. He had excellent speed and was a more prolific and efficient base-stealer, for example. It's an ominous comparison because of their similar builds and nagging injuries at a young age. You're remembering 2010+ Hart, after some knee problems robbed him of his speed. Hardy was an elite defensive ss so he was probably pretty close as a prospect as well. Brinson is not on par with guys like Braun, Fielder, Weeks, or Gallardo as a prospect. He's pretty ordinary as far as a team's #1 prospect goes, and he's an rhb outfielder which is the least needed role in the entire organization by far. I like building from within but there's a limit to how many of these guys can ever be long-time Brewers and I'm hoping the most favorable trade possible to reduce the logjam. That might not involve Brinson, but chances are it will.

 

Of course it depends on the trade. I didn't want Gray, for example, so obviously I'm not just out here yelling "trade Brinson now!" But I think there will be some trade options out there that are well worth it, and I hope the Brewers are able to make a massive upgrade somewhere by trading a few prospects without losing any prospects at positions (or in age cohorts) of organizational need.

[Lathund]

I could see why the injuries could make someone wary about Brinson (I'm not overly worried though), but I don't understand the concerns about strikeouts in the minors. His K% has gone down pretty much every year as he's moved up the levels, and was at 18% in 2017. Which suggests that he can adapt. In relative terms, only the Astros averaged below 18% among all MLB teams in 2017. Domingo Santana's best season was ~25% K rate, Brett Phillips has been at 30% in his Brewers minor league career.

 

Comparisons between Yelich and Brinson don't make much sense, since it wouldn't just be Brinson we'd be giving up but likely 1-2 other good prospects as well. I don't want to trade Brinson, but if we do it should be for a position of bigger need than another OF. I'm a believer in Brinson, he has the power (Though more of the gap power kind than pure HR power. So far) the glove, the arm and the speed. Whether he becomes AAAA player or an all-star or something inbetween depends on how well his hit tool develops. I think that with his upside, and proximity to the majors, it'd be a mistake to trade him unless the return was exceptional. Even then, I'd rather see who else we could shop.

 

Many people were low on Phillips after his first stint(s) in 2017, and then after his strong finish it seemed like a lot of people had him pegged as the CF of the future. I think Brinson will change minds in a similar way. I wasn't even concerned about his stats in 2017. It was 55 sporadic at bats over 21 games. Had an abysmal .107 BABIP, which for someone who hits the ball hard (according to Statcast) and runs well is never going to last; in the minors his BABIP is closer to 350 than 300. Also shows good patience. As for the "sell high due to injury concerns" type of thought; If we can look at his record and worry about time missed due to injuries, so can the 29 other GMs. That will be factored into the return we can get; I'd rather see what he can do for us. Bet on the potential upside rather than try to minimize/avoid the downside.

[KeithStone53151]

 

I can understand k rate concerns and trying to sell high. I just don't agree and am not overly concerned with the k rate. As far as selling high, brinson would have immensely more value if he had even a decent season in the majors. If he could post a 750 or better ops with plus defense and 20 sb, his value sky rockets. I also don't subscribe to the window theory, which is what trading prospects for established players tends to lead to. I'm aiming for consistently competitive which is what building around your own prospects can lead to if you do it right.

 

I think brinson is a better caliber prospect than those guys. He's more toolsy and more athletic than either of them could dream of being. His upside is world's above both as well, while coming with a bit more risk. I tend to agree yelich is better value than gray, but my preferred route is building from within. I also don't buy the Marlins are seriously considering trading yelich.

 

I believe he hurt a different hamstring each time, and it was twice. Also had a quad and shoulder injury. None of those injuries are long term concerns, maybe if it was the same hammy 3 times I'd be mildly more concerned.

 

Corey Hart was more "toolsy" than Brinson in the minors. He had excellent speed and was a more prolific and efficient base-stealer, for example. It's an ominous comparison because of their similar builds and nagging injuries at a young age. You're remembering 2010+ Hart, after some knee problems robbed him of his speed. Hardy was an elite defensive ss so he was probably pretty close as a prospect as well. Brinson is not on par with guys like Braun, Fielder, Weeks, or Gallardo as a prospect. He's pretty ordinary as far as a team's #1 prospect goes, and he's an rhb outfielder which is the least needed role in the entire organization by far. I like building from within but there's a limit to how many of these guys can ever be long-time Brewers and I'm hoping the most favorable trade possible to reduce the logjam. That might not involve Brinson, but chances are it will.

 

Of course it depends on the trade. I didn't want Gray, for example, so obviously I'm not just out here yelling "trade Brinson now!" But I think there will be some trade options out there that are well worth it, and I hope the Brewers are able to make a massive upgrade somewhere by trading a few prospects without losing any prospects at positions (or in age cohorts) of organizational need.

 

Hart might have been better on the bases and probably had a better hit tool, but Brinson has more power and is the far superior defender. Hart projected to be an above average corner guy which shifted to below average with his knee issues sapping his speed. Brinson projects plus in CF, much higher on the defensive spectrum. I think Brinson is a bit better of a prospect than Hart and Hardy, but I'll agree he's not approaching the Braun/Fielder group of blue chip stars.

 

Trading Brinson in the right deal is one thing, many seem eager to basically issue a mandate that we must trade Brinson in a package for the best player he can get us this offseason. Talking about trading him for Gray or Archer makes that fairly clear. I'm not concerned about PT for Braun/Santana/Brinson/Phillips. There will be plenty to go around if they rotate, will also be much easier to give guys a couple days off if they get dinged up. And might point about him having even a decent major league season boosting his value immensely still stands. Obviously there's risk if he has a terrible year, but I'd rather stay the course and try to win with our players.