What is your 2017-2018 off-season plan for the Brewers?

[bill hAll Star]

I think that the issue here is that if you assume Santana/Shaw/Knebel/Davies/Anderson do about the same, you're gonna need a big step forward from Arcia, Hader, Woodruff, Brinson, or Phillips to make a big difference. Because with the exact same performances (say Brinson breaks out but Shaw has a down year and everyone else is about the same), you're basically just taking last year's team and subtracting the 5-6 games that Jimmy Nelson was worth.

 

I'm not advocating for doing nothing. I'd like to see a starter on a 1 or 2 year deal, CC Sabathia type...he would be ideal in my opinion. Add a couple relievers. And that's correct, I'm banking on big steps forward from the young guys. We have to be able to count on young guys to perform to be successful as a small market franchise. We can't just buy a team like the Yankees and Red Sox, and even they bring up some players from their farm systems.

 

Yes, in baseball 101 it says that small market teams need their young guys to do well. Totally get that.

 

The issue I keep harping on is that this isn't the Astros' crop of young guys. It may develop into something more 2-3 years from now, but I'm not seeing an immediate spike in wins next year or even the year after.

 

We didn't tank but we did a good job of acquiring a bunch of guys like Davies, Shaw, Anderson, and Santana. We could go a variety of different ways from here, but short term, the core group on the roster right now probably isn't much more than an 85 win team. With a healthy Nelson it might be just above that.

 

So I'm OK waiting a few years if Stearns thinks that's the best route, but without sacrificing too many long-term assets, if they want success over the next 1, 2, maybe 3 years...they may have to make a bit of a splash trade or signing with the extra money they have.

 

If they want to wait a bit, that's also fine. I'm a fan of the long game...but again, since we didn't tank, we don't have Carlos Correa and Alex Bregman waiting to come up in 2020.

[Boomer5]

To me, unless the bullpen is drastically improved depth-wise or they bring in Lynn or Arrieta, even if a lot of the other guys were not a mirage (Shaw, Anderson, Knebel, Sogard, Thames, Brinson, Phillips, Arcia) all either play the same or improve, the team will be in some trouble.

 

Without an addition to the rotation, you've got Anderson and Davies that are both good pitchers (let's assume they repeat/improve) and then you've got Suter, Hader, Woodruff probably and maybe Burnes or Guerra or Wilkerson factor in down the road. All of those guys are 4-5 inning guys a lot of nights. The bullpen is going to get torn up and there is also major risk that every guy in the lower portion of the rotation does not provide a good season.

 

I think that even being optimistic about guys having the same or an improved year could still see for more losses.

 

Arrieta or Lynn may be a 3 WAR pitcher this year in theory, but I think it could be worth 6 or 7 wins total because you are putting one more risk in the rotation of one of the rotation guys being a mirage (Suter, let's just say in this example) and then cycling through our AAAA guys that also may stink, meaning we end up with a -2 or -3 WAR guy in the rotation with poor performances and burning through our bullpen.

 

I think you could probably also get by with adding 2-3 free agent signings in the bullpen and being fine with the fact that Suter, Hader, or Woodruff may only go 4 innings some nights and yank them even if they're doing "OK" but knowing that the 3rd time the order that they'll struggle.

 

I agree with everything here but to that end Hader must stay as a reliever. He is a potential super star in the Andrew Miller mold. To put him in the rotation both takes away our 2nd best reliever and introduces a 4-5 inning starter.

[NievesNoNO]

Some really great posts in here and alot to think about. So I've stolen from some others and put some thought in and here it goes:

 

Trade Villar: Not sure who the taker is or what the return could be. It's a definite sell low but I think it's not the same situation to start this season as last year. I'd trade him or Perez. I think Perez is slightly more valuable to the team with his versatility.

 

Trade Broxton to SF for Andrew Suarez. Not a trade with much upside maybe but Suarez looks like a guy that could contribute now. Add him to the group of potential final roster spots that could take up a 5th starter spot or long bullpen role with a chance to grow.

 

Sign Walker, Chatwood, Avila, Mike Minor, and Neshek

 

c: Pina, Avila (2/16million)

1b Thames, Aguilar

2b Walker (2/20 mil), Sogard, Perez

3b Shaw

SS Arcia

 

OF: Braun, Brinson, Santana, Phillips

 

 

Rotation:

 

Anderson

Davies

Woodruff

Chatwood (3/27 mil)

Hader

 

Knebel

Barnes

Neshek (2/12 mil)

Ta. Williams

Mike Minor (3/24 mil)

Suter/Suarez/Wilkerson

Wang/Webb

 

That adds about 40 million to the payroll this season. I think they need to give Hader a chance to win a rotation spot during the spring. If he looks capable he joins the rotation, otherwise it goes to one of Suter/Suarez/Wilkerson. I'd give Minor a 3 year deal as a bit of a hedge should Hader move to the rotation and add Neshek to solidify the unit. I'm basically giving Brinson the CF gig and letting him run with it and learn.

[brewmann04]

I am going to be curious to see how DS address the need for a starter via FA or Trade.

[Brewer Fever]

I am going to be curious to see how DS address the need for a starter via FA or Trade.

 

It seems like it almost has to be via trade. With anywhere from 8-12 prospects that might need rule 5 protection 12 months from now, they kind of need to make some 3 or 4 for 1 deals.

[Devinep]

My plan:

Trades

-Brinson and Phillips for Christian Yelich

-Hernan Perez for Ian Kinsler

 

FAs-

-Sabathia - 1yr/12mil

-Pat Nezchek- 1yr/6mil

-Jake McGee - 2yr/12 mil

-Alex Avila - 2yr /15 million (Vogt non tender)

 

Overall:

Makes for a competitive team this year while keeping payroll/roster space for upcoming prospects and trade deadline flexibility

[KeithStone53151]

My plan:

Trades

-Brinson and Phillips for Christian Yelich

-Hernan Perez for Ian Kinsler

 

FAs-

-Sabathia - 1yr/12mil

-Pat Nezchek- 1yr/6mil

-Jake McGee - 2yr/12 mil

-Alex Avila - 2yr /15 million (Vogt non tender)

 

Overall:

Makes for a competitive team this year while keeping payroll/roster space for upcoming prospects and trade deadline flexibility

 

While we are at it, we should trade Hiura and Ortiz for Tim Tebow...

[adambr2]

My plan:

Trades

-Brinson and Phillips for Christian Yelich

-Hernan Perez for Ian Kinsler

 

FAs-

-Sabathia - 1yr/12mil

-Pat Nezchek- 1yr/6mil

-Jake McGee - 2yr/12 mil

-Alex Avila - 2yr /15 million (Vogt non tender)

 

Overall:

Makes for a competitive team this year while keeping payroll/roster space for upcoming prospects and trade deadline flexibility

 

While we are at it, we should trade Hiura and Ortiz for Tim Tebow...

 

I thought about saying something but when I really think about it, it's really not as bad as it sounds. Yelich is only 25, is a 4-5 WAR player under fairly cheap team control through 2022. He's really valuable and would immediately solve our CF.

 

But yeah it would be disappointing to trade both Brinson and Phillips and have no pitching to show for it.

[Jenkins5]

I’m fine trading for Yelich. You won’t need both Phillips & Brinson. With their rebuild & Yelich costing between I think 7-12 million a year until end of contract, they will want to clear that cost. Broxton, Ray, and ptbnl could be fair.

 

Might even get Yelich for Brinson & ptbnl. Marlins care more about cutting cost over top tier talent in return.

 

Braun Yelich Santana with Phillips the near everyday rotation 4th OF would be really good OF. Broxton & Brinson will have high & low streaks as that is who Broxton is & Brinson’s learning curve.

[Devinep]

My plan:

Trades

-Brinson and Phillips for Christian Yelich

-Hernan Perez for Ian Kinsler

 

FAs-

-Sabathia - 1yr/12mil

-Pat Nezchek- 1yr/6mil

-Jake McGee - 2yr/12 mil

-Alex Avila - 2yr /15 million (Vogt non tender)

 

Overall:

Makes for a competitive team this year while keeping payroll/roster space for upcoming prospects and trade deadline flexibility

 

While we are at it, we should trade Hiura and Ortiz for Tim Tebow...

 

Yeah cuz Yelich and Tebow are almost comparable. In case you haven’t, and judging from y Ur response you have not, look at Yelich contract and career stats. He’d cost at least 2 top prospects

[Jenkins5]

Yelich Contract

2018- 7 million

2019- 9.75 million

2020- 12 million

2021- 14 million

2022 option at year 30 15 million

 

Overall worth money I think HOWEVER new Marlins management wants zero to do with any big contract. They are going full rebuild & shedding money. They will take less prospects to do so.

 

He is no Tebow but Marlins are not getting two MLB OFs. Brewers trade Brinson or Phillips then they can add another prospect AA or lower. It’d be awfully dumb of DS to trade off 2 very promising OFs who are set to play this year. You need 4 very good OFs. That 4th will play 4x a week rotating around.

 

If I’m DS I push Broxton hard over Phillips & Brinson & add Ray or Grisham & lower level arm or BP minor league arm like Griep who could have good value.

 

If you have Braun Yelich Santana.... you don’t need Broxton, Brinson, & Phillips. If you trade Broxton for Yelich, you can bait Brinson or Phillips for an TOR arm. My guess Brinson & roll with Phillips for 4th OF. That’d still be stellaf OF

[Devinep]

Yeah if Milwaukee can get a bit more from Miami to even it out or swap one of those for Broxton, then it would be a sweet deal. Maybe even Dee Gordon (though I’m not a fan-low OBP)

[KeithStone53151]

My plan:

Trades

-Brinson and Phillips for Christian Yelich

-Hernan Perez for Ian Kinsler

 

FAs-

-Sabathia - 1yr/12mil

-Pat Nezchek- 1yr/6mil

-Jake McGee - 2yr/12 mil

-Alex Avila - 2yr /15 million (Vogt non tender)

 

Overall:

Makes for a competitive team this year while keeping payroll/roster space for upcoming prospects and trade deadline flexibility

 

While we are at it, we should trade Hiura and Ortiz for Tim Tebow...

 

Yeah cuz Yelich and Tebow are almost comparable. In case you haven’t, and judging from y Ur response you have not, look at Yelich contract and career stats. He’d cost at least 2 top prospects

 

It's just as silly. Brinson has a good chance of being a better player than yelich and for cheaper. And then there's Philips. Why would you try and trade for a good outfielder by giving up a better, younger, cheaper outfielder AND another outfielder?

[adambr2]

Yelich has averaged 4 WAR per season in his first 4 full years. If Brinson can be that valuable, I'll be thrilled. It is a tremendous stretch to call Brinson 'better' than Yelich especially right now.

[Jenkins5]

Yelich has averaged 4 WAR per season in his first 4 full years. If Brinson can be that valuable, I'll be thrilled. It is a tremendous stretch to call Brinson 'better' than Yelich especially right now.

 

Agreed, Yelich walks 10% and ks only 20% on average which both are exactly what you want out of a guy. He has hit around .290 and power would probably even increase more with age and Miller Park. His OPS has been sitting between .810 and .850. He also is a good athlete who can run. He is 20/20 type athlete right now at 25 years old. Could even burst out a 30/30 season in the coming years.

 

Again though if I am trading for Yelich, Broxton is one to go with out of the three. "Flaboy" gets back to Florida and then we can turn sights on a TOR pitcher with Brinson. You trade Brinson for Yelich, you lose your greatest trading chip for that pitcher.

 

Debate is where do we want to go this season? Is this another building year and letting young talent learn and grow...hope they perform and we compete OR do we go to make this team a competitor NOW. Yelich in the OF and a big arm, could help put us right there. Hope is DS can buy as well as he sells.

[adambr2]

Yelich has averaged 4 WAR per season in his first 4 full years. If Brinson can be that valuable, I'll be thrilled. It is a tremendous stretch to call Brinson 'better' than Yelich especially right now.

 

Agreed, Yelich walks 10% and ks only 20% on average which both are exactly what you want out of a guy. He has hit around .290 and power would probably even increase more with age and Miller Park. His OPS has been sitting between .810 and .850. He also is a good athlete who can run. He is 20/20 type athlete right now at 25 years old. Could even burst out a 30/30 season in the coming years.

 

Again though if I am trading for Yelich, Broxton is one to go with out of the three. "Flaboy" gets back to Florida and then we can turn sights on a TOR pitcher with Brinson. You trade Brinson for Yelich, you lose your greatest trading chip for that pitcher.

 

Debate is where do we want to go this season? Is this another building year and letting young talent learn and grow...hope they perform and we compete OR do we go to make this team a competitor NOW. Yelich in the OF and a big arm, could help put us right there. Hope is DS can buy as well as he sells.

 

If you could land Yelich for Broxton + Ortiz + Bickford, I'd do it without hesitation.

[coolhandluke121]

I guess with the lack of great prospects in the last 10 years a lot of Brewer fans have forgotten what they look like. Brinson is pretty ordinary as far as a franchise's #1 prospect goes. I'll be pretty happy if he's as good as Corey Hart or Geoff Jenkins, and Yelich is probably about his ceiling if he can ever stay healthy. Trading him and bit pieces for Yelich would be an easy choice.

 

Could the Brewers incentivize the Marlins by taking Chen off their hands or is that just an NBA thing? Maybe they could send some lesser prospects by taking Chen. His 2021 option won't vest, and he would be a very expensive lhp reliever to replace Suter in the pen. The Brewers do have the payroll flexibility to do something like that. It would make me want to puke seeing his salary on the payroll for 3 years, but if it allowed them to keep most of their top prospects it would be worth it.

[Jenkins5]

I think that is a perfect trade. Then I'd make a play at Archer. A lot of people aren't huge fans of that because he is 29 and not a "true Ace" but I strongly disagree to pass on him because of labels.

 

I will take a pitcher who has finished in top 10 in WAR 2 of last 3 years. K's 10+ per 9 (29% of his batters). Keeps a FIP in usually low to mid 3's. He does walk usually in the higher 2's per 9 (7.5% of hitters) which still isn't bad. He sits 95-96 mph in his career. Ben Sheets like in that he depends on only 2 pitches while only throwing change 7% usually. For first time in career last season he gave up a lot of hard contact but track record and still finding success, make me feel better about it. I think that makes our staff and club better. His options take him through 2021 season.

 

Again all depends where this team want to go this year. When Astros got in our shoes where they surpassed expectations earlier than expected they went into buy mode to speed up finish product. Brewers can spend this year trying to compete and letting their prospects grow. Trust the process or speed it up and get an All-Star caliber CF (right now) and a TOR arm. Both drastically increases our chances over the next 2-4 years (if we keep Archer through options) of competing for a title. Yelich will surpass Brinson's production over next two season I believe. Archer is upgrade over everyone not named 2016 Nelson.

 

I'm fine either way. I'd love to see Brinson grow along with Woodruff, Hader, and etc but it is slower path to where we want to get to. There are growing pains, ups and downs and a process with them. Yelich and Archer are top of game right now.

[Jenkins5]

If you want to package Yelich to get reduced price by eating contract the options would be:

 

CF Yelich 4 years 43.5 million plus 15 million option (7, 9.75,12.5, 14 per) 26-29 years

 

RP Junichi Tazawa 1 year 7 million 32 year

RP Brad Ziegler 1 year 9 million 38 year

SP Edison Volquez 1 year 13 million 35 year

3B Martin Prado 2 years 28.5 million (13.5 & 15 per) 35-36 years

2B Dee Gordon 4 years 51 million (10.5,13,13.5, 14 per) 30-33 years

SP Wei-Yen Chen 4 years 68 million (10, 22, 20, 16 per) 33-36 years

OF Gicarlo Stanton 11 years and a ton of money

 

Ziegler and Tazawa would make sense

 

Gordon I'd consider. They could take Villar and Broxton for cheap from us but that is a lot of money going to 2 guys for 4 years

 

Chen is very ballsy move since he cannot stay healthy. When he has actually pitched....he's been good but at his age doubt injuries will stop.

 

Volquez maybe but he has not been good. Really just stealing spot for a prospect. No better than Garza

 

Prado for 2 years would be tough. If it was one year he could be Aaron Hill and utility but not worth it.

 

Funny thing is those guys make up 85% of Marlins salary! To me only Stanton, Yelich, and maybe Gordon are worth anything close to their price.

[coolhandluke121]

If you want to package Yelich to get reduced price by eating contract the options would be:

 

CF Yelich 4 years 43.5 million plus 15 million option (7, 9.75,12.5, 14 per) 26-29 years

 

RP Junichi Tazawa 1 year 7 million 32 year

RP Brad Ziegler 1 year 9 million 38 year

SP Edison Volquez 1 year 13 million 35 year

3B Martin Prado 2 years 28.5 million (13.5 & 15 per) 35-36 years

2B Dee Gordon 4 years 51 million (10.5,13,13.5, 14 per) 30-33 years

SP Wei-Yen Chen 4 years 68 million (10, 22, 20, 16 per) 33-36 years

OF Gicarlo Stanton 11 years and a ton of money

 

Chen is very ballsy move since he cannot stay healthy. When he has actually pitched....he's been good but at his age doubt injuries will stop.

 

 

I think taking Chen lowers the trade cost of Yelich much more than any of those other options, and he also happens to be a guy who could fill a need area. I'd rather just give Villar, Sogard, Perez, and Dubon lots of chances at 2b than give up more prospects for Gordon, and the other guys on that list either aren't good options for obvious reasons or aren't guys that will give Miami enough incentive to unload Yelich (or both). That's a move that has upside and the risks are of the variety that the Brewers can afford to take. Also, Chen's 2021 option is pretty unlikely to vest, and if it does, then he might be worth close to $16m anyway.

 

That said, I'd give up a lot for Yelich, Ziegler, and Tazawa, but make no mistake - I would have to. Yelich has a lot of trade value, while Ziegler and Tazawa are probably only borderline negative assets even at a combined $16m.

[Lathund]

Yelich Contract

2018- 7 million

2019- 9.75 million

2020- 12 million

2021- 14 million

2022 option at year 30 15 million

 

Overall worth money I think HOWEVER new Marlins management wants zero to do with any big contract. They are going full rebuild & shedding money. They will take less prospects to do so.

 

He is no Tebow but Marlins are not getting two MLB OFs. Brewers trade Brinson or Phillips then they can add another prospect AA or lower. It’d be awfully dumb of DS to trade off 2 very promising OFs who are set to play this year. You need 4 very good OFs. That 4th will play 4x a week rotating around.

 

If I’m DS I push Broxton hard over Phillips & Brinson & add Ray or Grisham & lower level arm or BP minor league arm like Griep who could have good value.

 

If you have Braun Yelich Santana.... you don’t need Broxton, Brinson, & Phillips. If you trade Broxton for Yelich, you can bait Brinson or Phillips for an TOR arm. My guess Brinson & roll with Phillips for 4th OF. That’d still be stellaf OF

 

I think it's a bit of wishful thinking to suggest that Yelich can be had on a bargain, or even relatively cheaply. Marlins do want to shed payroll, but Yelich is low on the list of contracts they want to get rid of. He's 25, with 5 years of team control remaining in his prime years at a very reasonable cost. I think he's someone they're fine with keeping if they don't get the kind of offer they're looking for. He costs $7m in 2018 and will still have a ton of trade value next offseason; not to mention that depending on what kind of rebuild/retool they go into, he could still be part of that next team depending on how long it takes.

 

I think Gordon, Stanton etc can be had relatively cheaply in return for taking the contract, but I think they'll play hardball and be patient with Yelich. I think it'll take more than the package you're suggesting; and while he'd absolutely be a great addition I wonder if that same package for pitching wouldn't be more worthwhile. I'm quite happy to see what Brinson and Phillips can do here, and if not them then Harrison/Grisham/Ray/Lutz et al a few years down the line.

 

Now, if they can't move these other big contracts for enough salary relief, the situation could very well be different and they could get more desperate. I just don't see it happening. And even if it does, I'd imagine the fact that there'll be a bidding war for Yelich will still mean a relatively good return for them. People can argue about the potential, and likelyhood of realising it, for Phillips, Brinson, Harrison and Ray, but even the pessimists among us would have to agree that the CF prospect situation for the Brewers is looking far better than for many other teams. There will be those desperate to sign someone like Yelich, and willing to give up a ton.

[monty57]

I would not want that Chen contract on the Brewer books. That would eat up way too much of our free cash flow over the next few years, and could hamper some other things we may want to do. If the Marlins would only do a deal if we took that contract, I would walk away.

 

Otherwise, Yelich is a great player, but the only way it really makes sense to do something would be in YoungGeezy's scenario where we could get Yelich in a deal not including Brinson, and then we used Brinson to land a good young pitcher. That seems like too many wheels turning for it to be likely to come to fruition, so the best bet is probably just to go with Phillips/Brinson.

[KeithStone53151]

I would not want that Chen contract on the Brewer books. That would eat up way too much of our free cash flow over the next few years, and could hamper some other things we may want to do. If the Marlins would only do a deal if we took that contract, I would walk away.

 

Otherwise, Yelich is a great player, but the only way it really makes sense to do something would be in YoungGeezy's scenario where we could get Yelich in a deal not including Brinson, and then we used Brinson to land a good young pitcher. That seems like too many wheels turning for it to be likely to come to fruition, so the best bet is probably just to go with Phillips/Brinson.

 

I tend to agree with you here. It sounds great in theory to get talent for Chen, but we don't have the payroll space to easily afford a move like that. I know the contract is split up, but for simplicity sake, 17 million is 14.2% of 120 million(which might be an optimistic payroll) while it is slightly less than 9% of 190 million(what many big markets are working with). It's a better opportunity for a big market than us. And a team is only going to give up so much talent to shed that contract.

[rickh150]

My Highly probable fearless off-season forecast....

 

Hader will stay in pen. Would be fairly gutsy to try to mess with him now that he has had success in the pen in a unique and extremely valuable role.

 

An outfielder (Broxton, Brinson, Phillips, Braun, or Santana... in that order for me) will be traded. Just too many bodies there with more prospects on the way.

 

Brewers will add two starters by way of trade ( or risk losing a small group of prospects to Rule 5) AND free agency ($ itching to be spent on obvious need).

 

Our 1B position/platoon is not settled. One or both will be rumored in trades.

 

Our lineup will look really good on opening day.

[pacopete4]

Brewers Off-Season Plan:

 

Trades:

1. w/Marlins for Yelich-CF (Brinson)

2. w/White Sox for Abreu-1B (Thames, Ray, +?)

3. w/Phillies for Hernandez-2B (Villar, +)

 

Free Agents:

Sign Yu Darvish (5 yr, $145M)

Re-sign Swarzak (2yr, $12M)

Sign Lucroy (2yr, $21M)

CC Sabathia (1yr, 13.5M)

 

 

Lineup:(8)

1. Hernandez- 2B

2. Yelich- CF

3. Braun- LF

4. Abreu- 1B

5. Santana- RF

6. Shaw- 3B

7. Lucroy- C

8. Arcia- SS

-Bench:(5) Phillips, Sogard, Perez, Pina, Aguilar

 

Rotation: (5)

Darvish

Anderson

Davies

Sabathia

Woodruff (Nelson, hopefully in July?)

 

Bullpen: (7)

CL- Knebel

SU- Hader

SU- Swarzak

MR- Williams

MR-Jeffress

MR- Hughes

LR- Suter