What is your 2017-2018 off-season plan for the Brewers?

[Thurston Fluff]

Avoid fulfilling MLBtraderumors.com prediction of signing Arrieta.

 

Anything else is gravy...

 

 

This. It would be a win now at the expense of long term viability move. I really hope we don't take that path yet again.

Overall I would be content to make some marginal moves and let the farm produce the major pieces. Sign a bunch of relievers to minor league deals with an invite to camp and add a veteran or two to short term deals if it makes sense but I just don't want the all in approach.

[JosephC]

I think it's necessary to keep the opening payroll in the 80-85 million range. The Brewer need flexibility to make some in-season moves and even more importantly, have space in future years for arbitration raises. Putting the payroll at 110 million now would really end up crunching them when players like Santana and Shaw start pulling in fairly significant money as arbitration-eligible players.

 

I would only non-tender Oliver Drake and Stephen Vogt. I also would not have re-signed Eric Sogard. Really went back on forth on Jared Hughes. The peripherals keep saying there will be a decline but he's had such a long run of pitching well above the metrics. He's had at least 63 appearances in each of the last four seasons and has pitched to a 2.55 ERA and a respectable 1.26 WHIP over that time-frame. Just too good and reliable to let go instead of paying a seemingly bargain 2.2 million.

 

Only would be looking to make one trade. A fringe prospect or two to the Dodgers for Hyun-Jin Ryu. Some will disagree but I don't see him going for much more than that when considering all the negatives which I discussed here : viewtopic.php?f=66&t=36077 . It's essential the Brewers pick up one starting pitcher. If the Dodgers demand too much for Ryu (anything over one "role player prospect" or two "fringe prospects), then I would look at Tyler Chatwood in free agency as plan B and Jason Hammel via trade as plan C. I'll probably find some more options but that's all I have for now.

 

I like these three free agents and the contracts are the predictions given at MLB Trade Rumors:

C-Alex Avila (2 years, 16 million)

RP-Tommy Hunter (2 years, 12 million)

RP-Anthony Swarzak (2 years, 14 million)

I'm not sure if Avlia's slugging percentage from last year is a fluke. But even if that goes backwards he's a lefty-swinging bat with a .351 lifetime OBP and IMO is a real good compliment to Pina. I really think Hunter is a bargain at that price and Swarzak is a bit risky because there isn't a long track record but he seemed to fit in real nicely as a Brewer.

 

I still also like the idea of having both Phillips and Brinson on the opening day roster and hopefully they perform well enough to push Broxton to the fifth outfielder spot. With Braun's injury history I tend to think there will be enough at-bats to go around for the young guys. If there isn't enough at-bats or one of them flops, they both have options remaining so sending one of them down after the first 4 to 6 weeks is no big deal IMO.

 

Pitching:

1. Chase Anderson = 4.25

2. Zach Davies = 0.55

3. Brandon Woodruff = 0.55

4. Hyun-Jin Ryu = 7.0

(Jimmy Nelson = 4.7)

5. Josh Hader = 0.55

6. Brent Suter = 0.55

7. Jacob Barnes = 0.55

8. Jared Hughes = 2.2

9. Jeremy Jeffress = 2.6

10. Tommy Hunter = 6.0

11. Anthony Swarzak = 7.0

12. Corey Knebel = 4.1

further options = Aaron Wilkerson, Taylor Williams, Tyler Webb, Junior Guerra (if not picked up by another team) and later in the season Corbin Burnes and perhaps Luis Ortiz

 

Catchers:

13. Alex Avila = 8.0

14. Manny Pina = 0.55

further options = Andrew Susac, Jett Bandy (if not picked up by another team)

 

Infielders:

15. Eric Thames = 5.0

16. Jesus Aguilar = 0.55

17. Jonathan Villar = 3.0

18. Hernan Perez = 2.2

19. Orlando Arcia = 0.55

20. Travis Shaw = 0.55

further options = Mauricio Dubon, Nate Orf (I'd likely add him to the 40 and remove an excess pitcher like Jorge Lopez)

 

Outfielders:

21. Ryan Braun = 19

22. Domingo Santana = 0.55

23. Keon Broxton = 0.55

24. Brett Phillips = 0.55

25. Lewis Brinson = 0.55

further options = none really. Maybe Kyle Wren and Clint Coulter?

 

Total payroll of 25 plus Nelson = 82.2 million

[KeithStone53151]

SP - Anderson, Davies, FA/Trade, Woodruff, Hader - Nelson on 60 day DL

RP - Knebel, Reed, Swarzak, Barnes, Jeffress, Duke, Suter, Williams(shuttle service) - Shaw/Nicasio/etc fallback if we don't get those 2.

IF - Pina, FA - C or Bandy, Thames, Perez/Aguilar, Villar, Sogard, Shaw, Arcia - One of Perez/Aguilar traded

OF - Braun, Santana, Brinson, Phillips

 

This roster probably adds about $25-30m each of the next 2 years depending on what we do at SP and Reed will probably be an additional year. The cost of these FA pieces shows how critical it is that some of these AAA arms develop into bullpen options.

 

Trade Broxton and one of Perez/Aguilar to clear space. I think it's Perez personally. Sogard is a better infield defender than Perez and can still cover corner OF if needed(along with Thames).

 

I don't mind Hughes, I only opt to look elsewhere because I'd rather aim higher than him to open the season. Swarzak > Hughes. Turn the bullpen into a real strength. On paper, the pen would look incredibly strong and even if 1-2 guys aren't as good as 2017, we still have at least 4 very solid options for the back end of games.

 

I would aim in the 2/25 type of FA pitcher if that's what it comes down to, I prefer aiming for a better pitcher via trade. I would not be interested in Darvish/Arrieta at sticker price or the Cobb/Lynn tier. 2/25 can be flushed down the waiver wire or at least into long relief quickly if he fails.

 

One thing we should consider that I don't think many are is that Pina may not have a repeat of 2017. Career minor leaguer comes up around age 30 and has a very strong season. He may not repeat, we should be prepared for that with a solid backup option. I don't think it should be vogt, I like him but I don't like his defense.

[harrydalton]

My 2017-18 plan would very selective in free agency. I wouldn't spend a lot on stop gaps. If I spend in free agency it would be for quality and longevity.

 

Actually, I would continue the rebuild at least one more year. They had a number of unexpectedly good performances, which is often not a harbinger of future success. I'd like to see more of what we have than what we don't have now.

[reillymcshane]

Spitballing this, but here you go:

 

- Non-tender Vogt (don't like his sub par defense)

- Sign Alex Avila 2-year/$16M contract - Left handed bat. He would platoon well with Pina. Both are able to handle a heavier workload if necessary - but ideally you split their work to keep them fresh.

- Sign Swarzak and Pat Neshak - 2-years/$12M. The reliever market is going to be expensive, so these prices might go up. They fortify the bullpen, especially with Hader going to the rotation.

- Sign Tyler Chatwood - 2-years/$20M. Chatwood is an intriguing ground ball pitcher who should do much better out of Colorado.

 

Roster

 

C - Pena, Avila

1B - Thames, Aguilar

2B - Villar

SS - Arcia

3B - Shaw

INF - Sogard

INF/OF - Perez

LF - Braun

CF - Brinson

RF - Santana

OF - Phillips

 

SP - Davies

SP - Anderson

SP - Woodruff

SP - Hader

SP - Chatwood

 

RP - Knebel, Hughes, Jeffress, Suter, Barnes, Swarzak, Neshak, Taylor Williams

 

Brewer salaries would be around $90M, which would allow some flexibility if we wanted to take on some salary during the season. The additions are no more than 2-year deals - so you aren't saddling the team with any bloated contracts down the road.

 

This gives 2B to Villar, which is a risk. But he's a talented player. I'm going to bet on him. If we get the Villar of 2016 (or even somewhere between there and 2017), we are going to get a pretty good player.

 

I would expect C. Burnes is in Milwaukee by July. Like we have done with Woodruff and Nelson and Davies - we'd bring him up when there are injuries or someone falters.

 

I am not counting on Nelson at all in 2018, but if he makes it back, it's a big bonus.

[coolhandluke121]

I like Chatwood but he will get A LOT more than 2/$20m. He's one of the only starters I would really want but I don't think it's some kind of big secret that he's a decent pitcher and I think teams will pursue him. On the other hand, there are a lot of sexier starters out there for teams with money. I normally don't support the mid-level Garza/Lohse/Wolf/Suppan pitcher acquisitions, but Chatwood would be a chance to sign a guy like that before he hits his peak. The problem with those other guys is the Brewers were acquiring them after age 30 or so.

 

I think you have 26 guys. I would definitely cut Jeffress because I think he's a total burnout who doesn't take care of his health. I would also like to cut Aguilar and play Braun at first, thus leaving room for Keon in the outfield. I don't expect them to find a good trade for him and would rather give him another year than cut him because I think he still has some potential.

 

Alex Avila is one of my favorite free agent targets. I really hope they get him. And I agree completely with giving Villar another chance, with Sogard and eventually Dubon as the alternatives if it doesn't work out.

[coolhandluke121]

I accidentally quoted myself instead of editing. How do you delete a post here?

[monty57]

Darvish and Arrieta are good, but they aren't good enough (or young enough) for the Brewers to commit the money/years it would take to get them. It's unfair, but the Brewers can't sign a deal of that magnitude where you expect to get 1-2 good years and then overpay for mediocrity for the final years of the deal. Bigger market teams can do that, the Brewers can't. Signing one of these deals will hurt the Brewers' ability to make other moves in the future. I may do that for the right player, but I don't think Darvish or Arrieta (as good as they are) are the right player.

 

If MLBtraderumors is close on their contract estimates, the best way for the Brewers to improve from last year is by adding a couple of good FA setup guys. A couple of 2-year deals at $6-7M/year will be easy for the Brewers to handle, will fall off the books when other guys start getting expensive, will shore up an area that really hurt us during the first half of 2016, and will allow Hader to move to the rotation. Moving Hader to the rotation is important because it will allow for us to see if he can maximize his value to the team for a price that will be much less than acquiring a starter in FA or trade.

 

If the price is right, I would like to add another starter, but I would not gut the farm to try "going for it" now. We're ahead of schedule, and have a shot at the playoffs in 2018, but our strong farm is the reason that we should be in the playoff hunt for a long time. Trading too much of that now would hurt us long-term and our chances this year aren't good enough that I'd be willing to take that hit. If we can't get a good young starter in FA or trade for a decent price, then I'm fine if we just sign a one-year deal to a vet to eat some innings. With all the youth we have in the rotation (and Nelson's injury), we have need to get some quality innings from someone. It may not be sexy, but I'd rather see a 4.00 ERA veteran innings eater on a one-year deal than see us spend $25M a year on Arrieta/Darvish or overpay in prospects for a SP.

 

I would love to get a high-OBP leadoff hitter at 2B. If that guy is out there and can be had for a decent price, then that would be a great addition. But again, I'd rather not "give up the farm" for a 2018 upgrade. If teams would require too much in terms of prospects, or if FAs are too pricey, then we can go with a combination of Sogard/Perez/Villar for the season.

 

Bottom line: try to improve the 2018 team without giving up young pieces that are likely to help us in the future. With a few moves, we could be a playoff team in 2018, but we should be better in 2019, 2020, 2021, etc if we don't sell the future today.

[KeithStone53151]

Spitballing this, but here you go:

 

- Non-tender Vogt (don't like his sub par defense)

- Sign Alex Avila 2-year/$16M contract - Left handed bat. He would platoon well with Pina. Both are able to handle a heavier workload if necessary - but ideally you split their work to keep them fresh.

- Sign Swarzak and Pat Neshak - 2-years/$12M. The reliever market is going to be expensive, so these prices might go up. They fortify the bullpen, especially with Hader going to the rotation.

- Sign Tyler Chatwood - 2-years/$20M. Chatwood is an intriguing ground ball pitcher who should do much better out of Colorado.

 

Roster

 

C - Pena, Avila

1B - Thames, Aguilar

2B - Villar

SS - Arcia

3B - Shaw

INF - Sogard

INF/OF - Perez

LF - Braun

CF - Brinson

RF - Santana

OF - Phillips

 

SP - Davies

SP - Anderson

SP - Woodruff

SP - Hader

SP - Chatwood

 

RP - Knebel, Hughes, Jeffress, Suter, Barnes, Swarzak, Neshak, Taylor Williams

 

Brewer salaries would be around $90M, which would allow some flexibility if we wanted to take on some salary during the season. The additions are no more than 2-year deals - so you aren't saddling the team with any bloated contracts down the road.

 

This gives 2B to Villar, which is a risk. But he's a talented player. I'm going to bet on him. If we get the Villar of 2016 (or even somewhere between there and 2017), we are going to get a pretty good player.

 

I would expect C. Burnes is in Milwaukee by July. Like we have done with Woodruff and Nelson and Davies - we'd bring him up when there are injuries or someone falters.

 

I am not counting on Nelson at all in 2018, but if he makes it back, it's a big bonus.

 

This isn't what I'd ideally like to see, but I could certainly live with this outcome. I just really want Addison Reed, closing experience in case Knebel regresses. One thing to note on your roster, you have 13 position players and 13 pitchers. If you want an 8 man pen(and I think we all do), you can't keep Aguilar, Perez, Sogard, and both young outfielders. I personally can't see a scenario where both Aguilar and Perez are back. One has to go, and this is also assuming Broxton gets traded.

[coolhandluke121]

This isn't what I'd ideally like to see, but I could certainly live with this outcome. I just really want Addison Reed, closing experience in case Knebel regresses. One thing to note on your roster, you have 13 position players and 13 pitchers. If you want an 8 man pen(and I think we all do), you can't keep Aguilar, Perez, Sogard, and both young outfielders. I personally can't see a scenario where both Aguilar and Perez are back. One has to go, and this is also assuming Broxton gets traded.

 

Technically you don't have to write Brinson's name in ink just yet. You could make a case for giving Broxton a chance to improve his trade value first. I'm not exactly bullish on Brinson and wouldn't mind seeing him in an impact deal like Yelich, as someone proposed previously. If asset management is the issue, Aguilar should obviously be the odd man out. I'd hate for them to dump Perez or Keon to keep him.

 

If Braun plays 1b, then Phillips, Keon, and Santana can be the outfield with Perez and Braun getting some reps there as well. Brinson can replace Keon when they find a favorable trade or if Keon doesn't bounce back at all. And if someone wants to give up great value for Brinson in a trade, by all means go for it. Phillips can be the cf with Hernan/Braun in lf.

 

I agree about Reed. He and Avila would be ideal targets, along with some other relievers. I don't hate the idea of Arrieta but would much prefer great depth and balance with less risk.

[KeithStone53151]

This isn't what I'd ideally like to see, but I could certainly live with this outcome. I just really want Addison Reed, closing experience in case Knebel regresses. One thing to note on your roster, you have 13 position players and 13 pitchers. If you want an 8 man pen(and I think we all do), you can't keep Aguilar, Perez, Sogard, and both young outfielders. I personally can't see a scenario where both Aguilar and Perez are back. One has to go, and this is also assuming Broxton gets traded.

 

Technically you don't have to write Brinson's name in ink just yet. You could make a case for giving Broxton a chance to improve his trade value first. I'm not exactly bullish on Brinson and wouldn't mind seeing him in an impact deal like Yelich, as someone proposed previously. If asset management is the issue, Aguilar should obviously be the odd man out. I'd hate for them to dump Perez or Keon to keep him.

 

If Braun plays 1b, then Phillips, Keon, and Santana can be the outfield with Perez and Braun getting some reps there as well. Brinson can replace Keon when they find a favorable trade or if Keon doesn't bounce back at all. And if someone wants to give up great value for Brinson in a trade, by all means go for it. Phillips can be the cf with Hernan/Braun in lf.

 

I agree about Reed. He and Avila would be ideal targets, along with some other relievers. I don't hate the idea of Arrieta but would much prefer great depth and balance with less risk.

 

If Braun getting part time duty at 1b becomes a thing, then Aguilar is gone for sure over Perez. I think that's likely regardless, Shaw can play more 1b also and I suspect Perez could fill in there as well. It may be somewhat dependent on what we can get for either player. Broxton and whichever of Aguilar/Perez we get rid of are an opportunity to reload some talent in the farm, ideally at the lower levels. I've been reading that a ton of teams are interested in Reed, notably the Cubs. I don't want to see the Cubs sign Reed and one of Davis/Holland. It's almost important to sign Reed just to keep the Cubs and their filthy paws off him.

[monty57]

If Braun getting part time duty at 1b becomes a thing, then Aguilar is gone for sure over Perez. I think that's likely regardless, Shaw can play more 1b also and I suspect Perez could fill in there as well. It may be somewhat dependent on what we can get for either player. Broxton and whichever of Aguilar/Perez we get rid of are an opportunity to reload some talent in the farm, ideally at the lower levels. I've been reading that a ton of teams are interested in Reed, notably the Cubs. I don't want to see the Cubs sign Reed and one of Davis/Holland. It's almost important to sign Reed just to keep the Cubs and their filthy paws off him.

 

I'd guess that Aguilar will be shopped to see what value he has. He's just entering his prime (27 years old), is cheap with a lot of team control, and can hit. He could be a good fit for a team in need of a first baseman, and a really good fit for an AL team looking for a 1B/DH. A team like the Red Sox who could use some pre-arby guys to get under the luxury tax would be a great fit, but I don't know if there's a trade to be had there.

 

I'm fine with him remaining on the 2018 roster, as he did well in his role with the 2017 Brewers and showed that he can still hit when getting sporadic playing time. However, if a team sees him as a full-time player and will give up commensurate value, then we should probably make the deal.

[bill hAll Star]

One of the issues with restoring Broxton's value is that you'd mostly just have to play him against lefties. He's destined to make a lot of outs against good RHP.

 

Most teams also know that Aguilar plays on the short side of the platoon. Most teams probably just wait until the Brewers are forced to DFA Aguilar if Braun does truly move to 1B part-time.

[KeithStone53151]

If Braun getting part time duty at 1b becomes a thing, then Aguilar is gone for sure over Perez. I think that's likely regardless, Shaw can play more 1b also and I suspect Perez could fill in there as well. It may be somewhat dependent on what we can get for either player. Broxton and whichever of Aguilar/Perez we get rid of are an opportunity to reload some talent in the farm, ideally at the lower levels. I've been reading that a ton of teams are interested in Reed, notably the Cubs. I don't want to see the Cubs sign Reed and one of Davis/Holland. It's almost important to sign Reed just to keep the Cubs and their filthy paws off him.

 

I'd guess that Aguilar will be shopped to see what value he has. He's just entering his prime (27 years old), is cheap with a lot of team control, and can hit. He could be a good fit for a team in need of a first baseman, and a really good fit for an AL team looking for a 1B/DH. A team like the Red Sox who could use some pre-arby guys to get under the luxury tax would be a great fit, but I don't know if there's a trade to be had there.

 

I'm fine with him remaining on the 2018 roster, as he did well in his role with the 2017 Brewers and showed that he can still hit when getting sporadic playing time. However, if a team sees him as a full-time player and will give up commensurate value, then we should probably make the deal.

 

Red Sox? yes please. I want to Stearns to trade with Dombrowski as often as possible.

 

I see your point, with him we shoudl be looking for a bit better than the Jason Rogers trade.

[Madhawk23]

I know I'm probably reaching here, but how about a deal like this with the Marlins:

 

Brewers get Yelich, Straily and Gordon

 

Marlins get: Brinson, Ortiz, Isan Diaz, and Villar

 

Is this not nearly enough for the Marlins to give up three good MLB players still under team control for a few years?

 

Then, go out and get Alex Cobb, Tommy Hunter, Swarzak and Avila in F/A

 

C - Pena, Avila

1B - Thames, Aguilar

2B - Gordon

SS - Arcia

3B - Shaw

INF - Sogard

INF/OF - Perez

LF - Braun

CF - Yelich

RF - Santana

OF - Phillips

 

SP - Davies

SP - Anderson

SP - Woodruff

SP - Straily

SP - Cobb

 

RP - Knebel, Hader, Hunter, Swarzak, Jeffress, Suter, Barnes

 

I'm guessing this would put our payroll at around 100 mil next year.

 

I know we still wouldn't have a true ACE in the rotation, but I'd have to think that this rotation, lineup and bullpen would have us competing for the top spot in the NL Central for the next few years.

[coolhandluke121]

I'm not really interested in Cobb, Straily, or Dee Gordon. I'd much rather give Villar and Suter another chance than give up prospects and payroll for guys who might not even be as good as them next year. I'm all over Brinson + others for Yelich though, and I'm kind of jealous of the person who thought of it.

[reillymcshane]

Spitballing this, but here you go:

 

- Non-tender Vogt (don't like his sub par defense)

- Sign Alex Avila 2-year/$16M contract - Left handed bat. He would platoon well with Pina. Both are able to handle a heavier workload if necessary - but ideally you split their work to keep them fresh.

- Sign Swarzak and Pat Neshak - 2-years/$12M. The reliever market is going to be expensive, so these prices might go up. They fortify the bullpen, especially with Hader going to the rotation.

- Sign Tyler Chatwood - 2-years/$20M. Chatwood is an intriguing ground ball pitcher who should do much better out of Colorado.

 

Roster

 

C - Pena, Avila

1B - Thames, Aguilar

2B - Villar

SS - Arcia

3B - Shaw

INF - Sogard

INF/OF - Perez

LF - Braun

CF - Brinson

RF - Santana

OF - Phillips

 

SP - Davies

SP - Anderson

SP - Woodruff

SP - Hader

SP - Chatwood

 

RP - Knebel, Hughes, Jeffress, Suter, Barnes, Swarzak, Neshak, Taylor Williams

 

Brewer salaries would be around $90M, which would allow some flexibility if we wanted to take on some salary during the season. The additions are no more than 2-year deals - so you aren't saddling the team with any bloated contracts down the road.

 

This gives 2B to Villar, which is a risk. But he's a talented player. I'm going to bet on him. If we get the Villar of 2016 (or even somewhere between there and 2017), we are going to get a pretty good player.

 

I would expect C. Burnes is in Milwaukee by July. Like we have done with Woodruff and Nelson and Davies - we'd bring him up when there are injuries or someone falters.

 

I am not counting on Nelson at all in 2018, but if he makes it back, it's a big bonus.

 

This isn't what I'd ideally like to see, but I could certainly live with this outcome. I just really want Addison Reed, closing experience in case Knebel regresses. One thing to note on your roster, you have 13 position players and 13 pitchers. If you want an 8 man pen(and I think we all do), you can't keep Aguilar, Perez, Sogard, and both young outfielders. I personally can't see a scenario where both Aguilar and Perez are back. One has to go, and this is also assuming Broxton gets traded.

 

I should have noted that the eight man pen was there because most teams have a guy shuttling back and forth between AAA. Yeah, if we want a permanent 8-man pen, we'd need to trim a position player.

[MNBrew]

I really haven't been able to imagine what outside moves Stearns might actually make, but a lot of these are very intriguing. At least some diversifying of the offense is necessary in terms of 1-2 high BA/OBP & fewer-K guys. My gut feeling is that he pulls at least one rabbit out of the hat that no one saw coming, but I have no guesses as to whether that's a pitcher or a position player.

 

I like what Lucroy was but I'm not sold on him being the right guy again. He may still "have it," but there's enough luster off that shiny penny for me not to pick it up again. In keeping with my first sentence above, I don't have a better suggestion -- well, that's only mostly true: NOT Andrew Susac and probably not Jett Bandy either. Also re: Lucroy...

 

- Matthew LeCroy is a former Twins catcher with a capital C in the middle of his last name.

- Jonathan Lucroy has no capital C in his last name.

[adambr2]

Bandy was our opening day starter in 2017 and was a pretty intriguing young catcher who at worst looked like he'd be a cheaper alternative to Maldonado with no dropoff. For the first couple months it looked like we had a really formidable catching tandem in Pina/Bandy. Then for whatever reason Bandy completely fell off a cliff in June and that was pretty much it for his season.

 

He seems like a viable bounceback candidate as a backup, but I can sure understand if that isn't the route they want to go.

[Humans Need Water]

1) Trade Broxton

2017 OF was Braun/Broxton/Santana/Perez. *if* Brinson or Phillips is traded the OF of Braun/Brinson or Phillips/Santana/Broxton is at least an upgrade over last year. However, Braun/Brinson/Santana/Phillips is not only an upgrade over that but a significant upgrade over 2017 and will allow Phillips to get 450 PA covering all spots (similar to Javy Baez). Broxton plays solid defense in CF (can play all 3 spots), has a solid arm, big time speed and was 20/20 last year taking a step back from 2016. With 5yrs control and being a quality 4th OF with the realistic potential to be an average every day CF (or better) absolutely gives him value. Package him with prospect(s) if need be.

 

2) Trade Perez

His extreme versatility is his greatest asset. With Brinson/Phillips in CF/4th spot there's no need for Perez in the OF as Thames can always play a game here and there in a pinch as the 5th. Perez isn't needed in the IF either with the signing of Sogard, who can cover 3 IF spots with Aguilar handling 1b (best bench bat too). The positives of Sogard offensively - he's a lefty, is a strong contact bat, has a great plate approach, makes pitchers work to get him out. He's most likely not repeating last year but he was finally healthy and made adjustments so he should still be much better than what he previously was. Perez has more pop and speed on the bases but his inability to work the count, draw a walk and generally get on base makes him expendable, especially with Dubon potentially ready by mid-season to contribute at MLB level. 3yrs of control left for Perez. He has value for a contender and maybe a non-contender wants to give him a shot at starting full time.

 

3) Pen

Acquire 3 arms - there are plenty of FA options who can be targets - (LHP) Minor, McGee, Watson and (RHP) Reed, Shaw, Cishek, Hunter, Neshek, Nicasio, Morrow or acquiring someone via trade. Knebel, Jeffress, Barnes, Hughes, Suter I personally like for a solid 5 with Suter being a swinging door to the rotation to fill in when needed but has been very good in strict pen role over his 24IP. That's 8 spots after acquiring arms. Hughes is a FA after this year so I can see us letting him walk or signing/trading at the deadline allowing that spot to then be used by someone like T.Williams. I don't see the need for having the 8th spot be a shuffle board between minors as if someone is injured put them on the DL and bring up T.Williams, Derby types.

 

4) Rotation

Chase, Davies, Woodruff should be locks. So their strategy depends on what they want to do with Hader. Him, Woodruff, Burnes, Ortiz are all Top 30-80 prospects so I'm of the opinion to continue to develop this internal talent at the MLB level. I can see them signing someone like Garcia, Cashner, Tillman, Vargas, Chacin who can fill a backend rotation spot given the uncertainty with how Nelson will recover/perform once the 2nd half comes around (some of them have spent time in the pen too in careers). Burnes waits in the wings to fill a spot in case of injury or ineffectiveness. That turns into 2019 rotation of Chase, Nelson, Davies, Hader, Woodruff, Burnes so someone gets traded (assuming Hader is now a full time rotation arm) with Ortiz waiting in the wings. If Hader is ineffective in the rotation and moved permanently to the pen then Nelson can take his spot once back this year (or Burnes) then next year you're sitting at Chase, Nelson, Davies, Woodruff, Burnes with Ortiz waiting in the wings.

 

If they're planning on Hader being in the pen full time starting now then I can see them targeting a higher quality arm from the one's listed above but not one of the 100M arms. I could also see them using Broxton and prospect(s) to land a backend controllable starter with upside (ie when we acquired Chase).

 

All of this keeps plenty of financial flexibility as well as the rest of the top prospects in the system to be used moving forward either internally or as trade bait once they see how these guys up now perform and what their potential looks like. We can compete in 2018 but we need to see what we have when it comes to Brinson, Phillips, Woodruff playing full seasons (and for me, ideally Hader in rotation seeing what he has).

 

Stearns has an absurd amount of options.

[Boomer5]

This is a team with far more regression candidates than you'd like if the goal is spend money on a fairly weak FA crop.

 

The best bet is to sign some bullpen FA arms to do our usual panning for gold there. Bring back JJ and Swarzak if they are cheap.

 

I'd sign Lucroy as a cheap bounce back guy and offer some RH 1B platoon with Thames.

 

Trade Broxton if there is a solid market and roll with a Braun, Brinson, Santana OF with Phillips to spell the inevitable and multiple Braun DL stints.

 

The rotation will have to sink or swim on their own because there isn't much out that won't be grossly overpaid.

[trwi7]

Then for whatever reason Bandy completely fell off a cliff in June

 

Probably because he isn't good.

[KeithStone53151]

This is a team with far more regression candidates than you'd like if the goal is spend money on a fairly weak FA crop.

 

The best bet is to sign some bullpen FA arms to do our usual panning for gold there. Bring back JJ and Swarzak if they are cheap.

 

I'd sign Lucroy as a cheap bounce back guy and offer some RH 1B platoon with Thames.

 

Trade Broxton if there is a solid market and roll with a Braun, Brinson, Santana OF with Phillips to spell the inevitable and multiple Braun DL stints.

 

The rotation will have to sink or swim on their own because there isn't much out that won't be grossly overpaid.

 

Who are all these regression candidates? Pina, Chase, maybe knebel, who else? You generally don't expect young guys to regress unless they have crazy good years. Meanwhile, we have villar, santana, arcia, shaw, brinson, phillips, hader, woodruff all as guys with somewhere between a realistic and likely chance of improving in 2018. We don't have a team full of 30+ guys that we are hoping don't fall off a cliff.

[coolhandluke121]

 

Who are all these regression candidates? Pina, Chase, maybe knebel, who else? You generally don't expect young guys to regress unless they have crazy good years. Meanwhile, we have villar, santana, arcia, shaw, brinson, phillips, hader, woodruff all as guys with somewhere between a realistic and likely chance of improving in 2018. We don't have a team full of 30+ guys that we are hoping don't fall off a cliff.

 

While I do think that some people have overstated the amount of regression expected, it's silly to list just 3 guys. Chase and Suter are massive regression candidates, and Davies is probably a minor one. Nelson could be out for the season. If Suter ends up being a starter out of spring training, which I sort of expect, literally every single spot in the rotation could easily be ~1.5 WAR worse than last year except the 5th spot (Woodruff all year instead of Peralta/Guerra/Garza).

 

Hader, Knebel, Swarzak, and Hughes were all quite a bit better than any reasonable person would have bet on them being. Ditto Thames and especially Aguilar. You can't cite Villar as a bounceback candidate without also acknowledge that Sogard is due for a lot of regression and Walker is probably gone. And Shaw improving on the season he just had? That's quite a stretch. Regression is far more likely.

 

Braun is only likely to miss more and more games and his bat continues to get slower every year. You'd have to consider Santana an elite hit tool guy to think he's going to stay the same or even get better. I don't think he's that. I agree about Brinson and Phillips replacing Broxton and Kirk in the outfield.

 

There will almost surely be lots of regression. There will also be some pleasant surprises and career years, and obviously a few of the guys I listed above won't regress - we just don't know which ones. They will sign some free agents to counterbalance the regression as well, but this is roughly a 75-80 win team as presently constituted and their offseason moves, along with those of their division rivals, will determine whether they exceed those expectations again.

[KeithStone53151]

 

Who are all these regression candidates? Pina, Chase, maybe knebel, who else? You generally don't expect young guys to regress unless they have crazy good years. Meanwhile, we have villar, santana, arcia, shaw, brinson, phillips, hader, woodruff all as guys with somewhere between a realistic and likely chance of improving in 2018. We don't have a team full of 30+ guys that we are hoping don't fall off a cliff.

 

While I do think that some people have overstated the amount of regression expected, it's silly to list just 3 guys. Chase and Suter are massive regression candidates, and Davies is probably a minor one. Nelson could be out for the season. If Suter ends up being a starter out of spring training, which I sort of expect, literally every single spot in the rotation could easily be ~1.5 WAR worse than last year except the 5th spot (Woodruff all year instead of Peralta/Guerra/Garza).

 

Hader, Knebel, Swarzak, and Hughes were all quite a bit better than any reasonable person would have bet on them being. Ditto Thames and especially Aguilar. You can't cite Villar as a bounceback candidate without also acknowledge that Sogard is due for a lot of regression and Walker is probably gone. And Shaw improving on the season he just had? That's quite a stretch. Regression is far more likely.

 

Braun is only likely to miss more and more games and his bat continues to get slower every year. You'd have to consider Santana an elite hit tool guy to think he's going to stay the same or even get better. I don't think he's that. I agree about Brinson and Phillips replacing Broxton and Kirk in the outfield.

 

There will almost surely be lots of regression. There will also be some pleasant surprises and career years, and obviously a few of the guys I listed above won't regress - we just don't know which ones. They will sign some free agents to counterbalance the regression as well, but this is roughly a 75-80 win team as presently constituted and their offseason moves, along with those of their division rivals, will determine whether they exceed those expectations again.

 

So you listed Aguilar, Sogard, Suter, Swarzak, Hughes, Hader, Thames, Nelson, Walker, Shaw as regression candidates. For starters, we might as well scratch off Swarzak and Walker as they aren't on the team anymore. Sogard/Aguilar/Suter/Hughes are fringe roster guys. Sure they might regress a bit, but it wouldn't be a huge hit to the team if they did. It's also possible that Aguilar/Hughes/Suter aren't even on the roster to open the season and are replaced by better players. Hader is likely going to be starting to open 2018, which you can't really compare relief to starting from a regression perspective. Nelson is also missing a good chunk of the season minimum. Thames is a regression candidate I suppose, but he also has upside as he came on strong to close the year and really adjusted to how he was being pitched. Shaw also could absolutely regress, but he's young enough to still have a bit of upside. He's also at that typical age 26-28 sweetspot where guys tend to peak as hitters. I specifically listed Pina/Chase as I think they are the most likely to have some regression. Thames/Shaw/Santana give reason to believe that they can still improve, still have upside.

 

Of course even the young guys can regress, but all the young guys have a ton of upside to go with the potential for a bad year. Our team has far more upside than downside in my opinion. Pina/Chase dropping off their production a bit can easily be replaced by Phillips or Brinson posting an OPS over 850, Hader or Woodruff posting a low 3s ERA in the rotation, Arcia building on his 2016 gains and posting an OPS in the 800-850 range, Villar returning to something between his 2016 and 2017 forms, you get the idea.