What is your 2017-2018 off-season plan for the Brewers?

[clancyphile]

Seeing as BrewCrewBall is asking their readers for offseason plans, I figured I'd just throw mine out here.

 

Arbitration-eligible:

 

Jared Hughes - NON-TENDER

Jeremy Jeffress - TENDER

Stephen Vogt - NON-TENDER

Jonathan Villar - TENDER

Jimmy Nelson - TENDER (sign to 5-year, $25 million extension)

Hernan Perez - TENDER (sign to 6-year, $21 million extension)

Corey Knebel - TENDER (sign to 4-year, $18 million extension)

 

Impending free agents

Neil Walker - RE-SIGN (3 years, $36 million)

Anthony Swarzak - LET GO (Jeffress will not be a bad set-up guy and can be had much cheaper)

Matt Garza - LET GO

 

Free agent signings

 

C Jonathan Lucroy - SIGN (4 years, $50 million, team option for 2022 for $15 million and a $6 million buyout)

- Lucroy has a superb bat, but more importantly, he is one of the best pitch-framers in the majors. This will help the young starters the Brewers have coming up.

 

LHP CC Sabathia - SIGN (2 years, $15 million, team option for 2020 for $12.5 million and a $2 million buyout)

- He may not be the CC of 2008, but he can still be a reliable inning eater.

 

Trades

 

1B Jesus Aguilar, OF Keon Broxton, and RHP Taylor Jungmann to Seattle for LHP James Pazos, RHP Nick Neidert, OF Anthony Jiminez, and IF Gianfranco Wawoe

 

Part of this is clearing room for acquisitions/youth, and part is adding prospects. Seattle needs a 1B/DH (Valenia had a .725 OPS, making Aguilar an upgrade), and a CF (their CF's OPS was .674). Jungmann, outofoptions and unlikely to make the 25-man due to signing Sabathia, will give them a cheap back-of-the rotation option.

 

Pazos becomes a set-up option alongside Hader and Jeffress who is cheaper than Swarzak.

 

Neidert becomes a rotation prospect alongside the Burnes/Ortiz wave.

 

Wawoe could be groomed as an eventual Perez/Villar replacement.

 

Jiminez could be an OF/1B bat.

 

2018 25-man roster

 

2b: Walker

c: Lucroy

lf: Braun

3b: Shaw

rf: Santana

1b: Thames

cf: Phillips/Brinson

ss: Arcia

p: Pitcher

bench: Pina, Villar, Sogard, Perez, Phillips/Brinson

rotation: Anderson, Davies, Sabathia, Woodruff, Suter

bullpen: Knebel, Hader, Jeffress, Pazos, Barnes, T. Williams, Guerra

 

Notes: if necessary, Lucroy or Perez can be used at first to give Thames a day off or to handle a tough left-handed pitcher. Pina can move to be a #2. Lucroy's biggest benefit, more than the bat, will be framing. Hope the Cub cherish their playoff memories from 2015-2017, `cause this Brewers team will be dishing out that heartbroken feelin' to the Wrigley faithful.

 

And that's a good thing.

[3and2Fastball]

Sign Otani

[reillymcshane]

Seeing as BrewCrewBall is asking their readers for offseason plans, I figured I'd just throw mine out here.

 

Arbitration-eligible:

 

Jared Hughes - NON-TENDER

Jeremy Jeffress - TENDER

Stephen Vogt - NON-TENDER

Jonathan Villar - TENDER

Jimmy Nelson - TENDER (sign to 5-year, $25 million extension)

Hernan Perez - TENDER (sign to 6-year, $21 million extension)

Corey Knebel - TENDER (sign to 4-year, $18 million extension)

 

Impending free agents

Neil Walker - RE-SIGN (3 years, $36 million)

Anthony Swarzak - LET GO (Jeffress will not be a bad set-up guy and can be had much cheaper)

Matt Garza - LET GO

 

Free agent signings

 

C Jonathan Lucroy - SIGN (4 years, $50 million, team option for 2022 for $15 million and a $6 million buyout)

- Lucroy has a superb bat, but more importantly, he is one of the best pitch-framers in the majors. This will help the young starters the Brewers have coming up.

 

LHP CC Sabathia - SIGN (2 years, $15 million, team option for 2020 for $12.5 million and a $2 million buyout)

- He may not be the CC of 2008, but he can still be a reliable inning eater.

 

Trades

 

1B Jesus Aguilar, OF Keon Broxton, and RHP Taylor Jungmann to Seattle for LHP James Pazos, RHP Nick Neidert, OF Anthony Jiminez, and IF Gianfranco Wawoe

 

Part of this is clearing room for acquisitions/youth, and part is adding prospects. Seattle needs a 1B/DH (Valenia had a .725 OPS, making Aguilar an upgrade), and a CF (their CF's OPS was .674). Jungmann, outofoptions and unlikely to make the 25-man due to signing Sabathia, will give them a cheap back-of-the rotation option.

 

Pazos becomes a set-up option alongside Hader and Jeffress who is cheaper than Swarzak.

 

Neidert becomes a rotation prospect alongside the Burnes/Ortiz wave.

 

Wawoe could be groomed as an eventual Perez/Villar replacement.

 

Jiminez could be an OF/1B bat.

 

2018 25-man roster

 

2b: Walker

c: Lucroy

lf: Braun

3b: Shaw

rf: Santana

1b: Thames

cf: Phillips/Brinson

ss: Arcia

p: Pitcher

bench: Pina, Villar, Sogard, Perez, Phillips/Brinson

rotation: Anderson, Davies, Sabathia, Woodruff, Suter

bullpen: Knebel, Hader, Jeffress, Pazos, Barnes, T. Williams, Guerra

 

Notes: if necessary, Lucroy or Perez can be used at first to give Thames a day off or to handle a tough left-handed pitcher. Pina can move to be a #2. Lucroy's biggest benefit, more than the bat, will be framing. Hope the Cub cherish their playoff memories from 2015-2017, `cause this Brewers team will be dishing out that heartbroken feelin' to the Wrigley faithful.

 

And that's a good thing.

I admire your wide-ranging and well-considered plan.

 

Many things I don't agree with - but that's okay. You got the ball rolling.

[RockCoCougars]

Avoid fulfilling MLBtraderumors.com prediction of signing Arrieta.

 

Anything else is gravy...

[DuWayne Steurer]

- Possibly resign Walker for 2 years at a reasonable cost.

- Keep Villar as the utility guy, and move Perez

- Attempt to resign Swarzak for 2 years

 

- Attempt to trade Broxton for young controllable talent. Phillips is ready, and it's sink or swim time for Brinson I think.

- I don't think it's necessary to trade Aguilar or Thames. A platoon advantage is nice to have, and having a good bench is always a plus.

- Non tender Vogt. He served a purpose, but he's in his 30's, and he's not good defensively.

- Find a catcher (any catcher), even a reclaim/project type guy like Pina or whoever to start 70 games this year so Pina isn't starting 100+ games and wearing down again.

 

- Not throwing out any specific names, but find a starter (just one) who can provide depth until Nelson gets back.

[MadThinker88]

I like the idea of trying to sign Nelson & Knebel to extensions but I think you are very low on the values.

 

As examples I forward Corey Kluber & Carlos Carassco. Both signed extensions effective the 2015 season

Corey signed 5 yrs/$38.5M covering the 2015 thru 2019 seasons. There are also 2 team options(20&21). If picked up the contract becomes 7 yrs/ $65M

Carlos signed 4 yrs/$22M covering 2015 thru 2018 seasons. There are also 2 options (19&20). If picked up the contract becomes 6 yrs/ $44.3375M

 

Those were deals were hammered out about 3 years ago and the players were criticized for leaving money on the table. Both players were about 27 years old when the contracts were signed. Since that time salaries have continued to go up.

 

Now Nelson is older & currently coming back from injury. I could see him getting the Kluber type deal of 5 yr/ $37.5M (Corey's extra money being option years or buyouts).

 

On the other hand, Knebel is watching the salaries for relievers (especially closers) EXPLODE. I doubt he signs an extension for greater than 3 yrs and at a value under $24M. A few years back Andrew Miller signed for 3 yrs/ $27M and that looks like a bargain now. Cody Allen had a salary at $7.35M (just avoiding arbitration) last year and is projected over $10M if going thru arbitration this year.

[MrTPlush]

Salaries for relievers explode...if you can get into position for one of those contracts. Honestly most relievers implode before their salary ever explodes.

[clancyphile]

I like the idea of trying to sign Nelson & Knebel to extensions but I think you are very low on the values.

 

As examples I forward Corey Kluber & Carlos Carassco. Both signed extensions effective the 2015 season

Corey signed 5 yrs/$38.5M covering the 2015 thru 2019 seasons. There are also 2 team options(20&21). If picked up the contract becomes 7 yrs/ $65M

Carlos signed 4 yrs/$22M covering 2015 thru 2018 seasons. There are also 2 options (19&20). If picked up the contract becomes 6 yrs/ $44.3375M

 

Those were deals were hammered out about 3 years ago and the players were criticized for leaving money on the table. Both players were about 27 years old when the contracts were signed. Since that time salaries have continued to go up.

 

Now Nelson is older & currently coming back from injury. I could see him getting the Kluber type deal of 5 yr/ $37.5M (Corey's extra money being option years or buyouts).

 

On the other hand, Knebel is watching the salaries for relievers (especially closers) EXPLODE. I doubt he signs an extension for greater than 3 yrs and at a value under $24M. A few years back Andrew Miller signed for 3 yrs/ $27M and that looks like a bargain now. Cody Allen had a salary at $7.35M (just avoiding arbitration) last year and is projected over $10M if going thru arbitration this year.

 

Part of this is Nelson is coming in at an injury discount. My assumption in this exercise is that he doesn't see action in 2018. Much of what he does is rehab work. He may come back in September, he may not. Knebel's had the one year. Here, I'll give him a bit over what MLBTR thinks he will get, but try to lock that in as a controlled cost.

 

Honestly, I think the biggest stretch is the Seattle deal. Part of me was tempted to toss in Josh Nottingham to get another pitcher - and simply bank on the lower-minors catchers, some of whom are showing good OBP skills.

[pacopete4]

I just hope that we don’t spend money on a player just because. The free agent class doesn’t really do it for me. Would rather go internal for another year and see how some of the player shake out.

[MadThinker88]

Part of this is Nelson is coming in at an injury discount. My assumption in this exercise is that he doesn't see action in 2018. Much of what he does is rehab work. He may come back in September, he may not. Knebel's had the one year. Here, I'll give him a bit over what MLBTR thinks he will get, but try to lock that in as a controlled cost.

 

clancy - I am only looking at your proposed extensions for Nelson & Knebel. Regarding the money I think your on the low side for each & I have attempted to give you my reasoning why I believe you are low.

 

I grant you Nelson is injured and trying to come back. I think that injury offsets (or cancels out) the effect of inflation AND his being 2 years older than when Kluber signed his extension deal going into 2015 (or when Carrasco signed his 4 yr deal going into 2015). Nelson signing a deal equal to numbers of 2015 would be a hometown/ injury discount.

 

As for Knebel, closers and top setup men are finally getting the large paydays. Knebel is a super 2 meaning he will get 4 years of arbitration (if he wants it) and the 1 thing I have not seen is players getting a pay DECREASE thru the arbitration process. I think if the Brewers offer him 4 yrs at 18M, he declines it because the overall money is low.

 

Using Cody Allen (who has gone year to year with contracts as an example) Allen has gone from just over 500K (pre arbit) to 4.1M (after arbit 1) to 7.35M (after arbit 2) and is projected at 10.8M (after arbit 3 for 2018). Heck, Roberto Osuna (Toronto) going into arbitration for the 1st time this off season is projected to be over 5M.

 

Again, its a solid plan to try to sign both to extensions. I just feel the cost is going to be more than you project/ believe.

[DuWayne Steurer]

There's just no way I'd be comfortable to committing long term years and dollars to Nelson until we see that he comes back and is viable.

[coolhandluke121]

Good thread, bad moves. Sorry, but in my opinion there's a hardly a move I like in the whole OP.

 

Lucroy is cooked. Do you realize he graded out as a really bad pitch-framer this year? Given the normal aging curve of most catchers, there's no reason to invest nearly that much in him. Go after Avila, and just keep Vogt if that doesn't work. Both are much better options than Luc.

 

Your nostalgia strikes twice. Jeffress is terrible now. Took his god-given talent for granted, smoked and drank too much, and can't do jack without his velocity now that he's past his physical prime. Not sure I'd use a roster spot on him for free. And counting on Guerra in the pen? Yikes. Stranger things have happened but I'm not buying it.

 

Hughes should be a mortal lock to keep. He's been good and will cost peanuts. I'm not high on Swarzak but I don't think he'll cost as much as some people think. I want them to spend money on relievers and I don't mind if it's him.

 

C.C. will get twice the annual salary you're suggesting. Walker will get 1.5 times your number. Walker made $17.2m this season after season-ending back surgery last year. No reason to think he's gonna get a pay cut after the relatively healthy, productive year he just had. It's not like he's an old man or anything.

 

Not much reason to hand out a lot of extensions either. I like most of these guys and wouldn't mind if they lock them up, but it's really unnecessary considering how long most of them are still under team control. Unless you think the arbitration system is going to be revamped soon, you don't get much benefit from a lot of extensions.

 

Knebel

Hader

Swarzak (or Neshek)

Barnes

Hughes

Taylor Williams

Addison Reed? (Wang or Webb backup plan)

---

Anderson

Davies

Woodruff

Suter

??? (I won't riot if the overpay Arrieta)

 

Thames/Braun

Sogard/Villar

Arcia

Shaw/Perez

Pina/Avila (Vogt backup plan)

 

Brinson

Phillips/Keon

Santana

 

I'll be pissed if Braun refuses to move to 1b but they're stuck with him so I guess you trade Keon instead of Aguilar in that case.

[HighHeat19]

1. Do not resign Walker, do not resign Villar, move Perez to 2nd full time. Sogard to be the backup.

2. Trade Thames and keep Aguilar with Braun moving to first.

3. Brinson in center, Phillips in right and Domingo in Left.

4. Try to pull a trade off for Archer. If that means Brinson and others to TB. Then so be it. No Hader or Woodruff, Bickford instead. Maybe even Orlando Arcia.

5. Try to trade for Francisco Mejia from the Tribe if Archer trade falls through.

6. Arrieta- Be a price driver and in the end just say NO.

7. Darvish - See Arrieta

8. Give Hader a shot at SP in spring training.

9. Find a new AAA minor league facility.

[ClosetBrewerFan]

 

Thames/Braun

Sogard/Villar

Arcia

Shaw/Perez

Pina/Avila (Vogt backup plan)

 

Brinson

Phillips/Keon

Santana

 

I'll be pissed if Braun refuses to move to 1b but they're stuck with him so I guess you trade Keon instead of Aguilar in that case.

Are you suggesting Braun is a platoon bat now? He had an 808 OPS vs RH last year. I'd be surprised if Braun was not the starting LF. Brinson and Phillips will be platooning in CF or one will be back in AAA.

 

I think Bandy comes back as the bC. He started out strong, went into a slump and then got hurt. I think he'll get another chance. Last year he showed a glimpse of what he could do with the bat.

[coolhandluke121]

Are you suggesting Braun is a platoon bat now? He had an 808 OPS vs RH last year. I'd be surprised if Braun was not the starting LF. Brinson and Phillips will be platooning in CF or one will be back in AAA.

 

I think Bandy comes back as the bC. He started out strong, went into a slump and then got hurt. I think he'll get another chance. Last year he showed a glimpse of what he could do with the bat.

 

No, I'm saying that Thames isn't worthy of ~120 starts. I think he needs more than his fair share of mental rest days. But we do know Braun will need some days off and who knows if he'll even be healthy, so I'm not counting on him for much in the outfield, nor would I want to. Even the emergency of should be Perez and not Braun if at all possible. Rather have all that defense out there and continue to hope Broxton has one good year to improve his trade value.

 

Beware the power of first impressions. If Bandy had had his one random good stretch in the middle of June, you probably wouldn't consider him much of a candidate. But primacy bias is very real and his good start can easily have a disproportionate influence on your opinion of him if you're not careful. It reminds me of Brandon Jennings for the Bucks; because of his hot start, it took years of total ineptitude for people to finally realize he sucked. With all the money they can spend, there's no excuse for not putting in a very serious bid for Avila. Vogt as a fall-back is still probably a lot better than Bandy or Susac.

[brewmann04]

I will sign CC for a one year deal with an option. but dont want to see the brewers sign Arieta

[SomewhereInTime]

Why on earth would you try to sign Hernan Perez to a 6 year contract?

[BrewCrewBlueDevil]

Sign Neshek (2 years, 16 million)

Sign LuCroy (2 years, 20 million)

Sign Watson (2 years, 16 million)

 

SP: Davies, Anderson, Guerra, Woodruff, Hader

LRP: Suter, Jungman (to spell Woodruff and Hader- split starts?)

RP: Barnes, Williams, LH: Watson SU: Neshek, CP: Knebel

C: LuCroy (1B platoon, LuCroy gets LHP when Jesus doesn't have his swing), Pina

1B: Thames, Aguilar

2B: Villar

3B: Shaw

SS: Arcia

LF: Braun

CF: Phillips (platoon with Broxton)

RF: Santana

Bench: Perez, Sogard, Broxton

 

Phillips (RHP), Broxton (LHP)

Villar, Sogard, Perez (who's hot)

Santana

Shaw

Braun

Thames, Aguilar

Pina, LuCroy

Arcia

Pitcher

 

The rotation is sketchy; this pen could be lights out. LuCroy is a stretch but maybe he could rejuvenate his career in familiar surroundings. The Woodruff, Hader, Suter, Jungman debate would be settled by mid season. Payroll would still be low enough to add players near the deadline.

[SandyTolan]

Sandy Tolan’s Offseason Plan

 

Arbitration-eligible:

Jared Hughes - $2.2 mil Tender

Jeremy Jeffress - $2.6 mil Tender

Stephen Vogt - $3.9 mil Non-tender

Jonathan Villar - $3.0 mil Tender

Jimmy Nelson - $4.7 mil Tender

Hernan Perez - $2.2 mil TRADE

Corey Knebel - $4.1 mil TRADE

Perez and Knebel form part of the blockbuster deal with the Marlins (see below).

 

Vogt’s defense, especially his abysmal numbers throwing out would-be base stealers, leaves much to be desired. Despite his clubhouse presence, the Brewers cut ties and sign another vet, Chris Iannetta (24 percent CS), on a 2-year deal. Villar sticks around and becomes the next Hernan Perez supersub.

 

Impending free agents:

 

Neil Walker: made $17.2 mil in 2017 (ineligible for QO) Let go

Anthony Swarzak: made $900K in 2017 (ineligible for QO) Sign (2 years, 13 million)

Matt Garza: made $12.5 mil in 2017 Let go

 

Free agent signings:

 

RP Brandon Morrow 3/24 (as per MLBTR)

RP Anthony Swarzak 2/13

RP Pat Neshek 2/12

C Chris Iannetta 2/10

 

Trades:

Trade Lewis Brinson, Hernan Perez, Keon Broxton, Corey Ray, Corey Knebel and Domingo Santana to the Marlins for Christian Yelich, Dee Gordon and Giancarlo Stanton.

 

The blockbuster trade with Florida makes the Brewers the favorite in the NL Central. They do this without gutting the farm: they lose Brinson and Ray, but retain 8 of their top 10 prospects, and everyone else. (Though adding another prospect pitcher such as Diplan or even Ortiz may make this deal more realistic.) Though the loss of Knebel will be significant, the signings of Morrow, Neshek and Swarzak fill that hole, while also allowing Hader to move into the starting rotation (the equivalent of a FA signing), provided he can keep his pitch count down and develop another pitch during spring training.

 

Batting order:

 

Gordon 2B

Yelich CF

Braun LF

Stanton RF

Shaw 3B

Thames 1B

Piña C

Arcia SS

P

 

This batting order makes the Brewers the envy of many an MLB team.

 

Bench:

 

Villar

Sogard

Phillips

Aguilar

Iannetta

 

This will be an exceptionally strong bench. With Hernan gone, Jonathan Villar steps into the role of supersub, filling in at three infield positions (and OF in a pinch – he’ll bone up by seeing action there in ST) and getting four to five starts a week. If he falters, Sogard is there; if Villar excels, there won’t be much playing time for Eric. A good problem to have. Brett Phillips would be in danger of being the odd man out, but he too should be able to get perhaps four starts a week, spelling all three outfielders, especially Braun. Iannetta will be the backup but should get at least two starts a week. Aguilar reprises his role as platoon 1B and top pinch hitter.

 

Starters:

 

Anderson

Davies

Hader

Woodruff

Wilkerson/Guerra

 

In lieu of a free agent signing, Hader’s move into the rotation can be equal if not better than nearly every FA starter. I had boldly projected a Darvish signing, but once I added up the salaries of the FA relievers, plus Stanton and Gordon, I was over $140 million. I haven’t added up all the contracts via Cotts. If need be I’d take away one of the FA relievers and go with Bandy over Iannetta. Estimated salary here, about $120M, which I believe Attanasio would approve for this roster.

 

Bullpen:

Morrow

Swarzak

Neshek

Taylor Williams

Jeffress

Suter (much better as long reliever; his numbers the third time through the batting order are atrocious; second-time-through numbers aren't very good, either, but first time through he is stellar).

Last spot: Barnes/Hughes/Wang/Guerra/Jungman/Wilkerson

[pacopete4]

Why on earth would you try to sign Hernan Perez to a 6 year contract?

 

Well to his credit, that would be about 10 walks over that six years.

[Warning Track Power]

Trades:

Trade Lewis Brinson, Hernan Perez, Keon Broxton, Corey Ray, Corey Knebel and Domingo Santana to the Marlins for Christian Yelich, Dee Gordon and Giancarlo Stanton.

 

The blockbuster trade with Florida makes the Brewers the favorite in the NL Central. They do this without gutting the farm: they lose Brinson and Ray, but retain 8 of their top 10 prospects, and everyone else. (Though adding another prospect pitcher such as Diplan or even Ortiz may make this deal more realistic.) Though the loss of Knebel will be significant, the signings of Morrow, Neshek and Swarzak fill that hole, while also allowing Hader to move into the starting rotation (the equivalent of a FA signing), provided he can keep his pitch count down and develop another pitch during spring training.

I don't think this deal needs to be so complicated or large. I would gladly move Lewis Brinson in a deal to acquire Christian Yelich. Diversification of the Brewers offense should be at the forefront of their moves this offseason. While I love Brinson as a prospect, he also profiles as a high strikeout type so common in the Brewers lineup. I LOVE Yelich's eye at the plate and the fact he carries a high AVG/OBP (career .290/.369) at the MLB level. Furthermore, his contract is for 4 years $43.5 million with a 5th year team option for $15m. 5 years $58 million for Yelich is a steal.

 

I would gladly take on Gordon's deal as well if it limited what the Brewers had to deal back to Miami. A package of Brinson + Dubon for Yelich and Gordon may be enough to get it done.

 

Lineup:

1. Gordon

2. Yelich

3. Braun

4. Shaw

5. Santana

6. Thames

7. Pina

8. Arcia

 

I like it quite a lot.

[SandyTolan]

If Brinson and Dubon could bring back Yelich and Gordon, I'd do back flips. (And that wouldn't be pretty.) I doubt that'd be enough, but if it would be, by all means, yes. I'd even add Ray if need be.

[jackailius]

I had drawn this up over on BCB and got some great feedback, especially on the trades which are now altered a bit to fit that feedback.

 

•Jared Hughes - $2.2 mil non tender

•Jeremy Jeffress - $2.6 mil tender (work out a 2yr pack for $3M)

•Stephen Vogt - $3.9 mil non tender

•Jonathan Villar - $3.0 mil tender and trade

•Jimmy Nelson - $4.7 mil tender

•Hernan Perez - $2.2 mil tender

•Corey Knebel - $4.1 mil tender

 

toughest calls if necessary: Vogt is the toughest call for me. I had written on here to tender him a contract only to remove his name at the end. Looking at his stats it’s just tough to find a fit for him here, especially at the price.

 

Impending free agents (re-sign, let go or qualifying offer)

 

•Neil Walker: made $17.2 mil in 2017 (ineligible for QO) let go

•Anthony Swarzak: made $900K in 2017 (ineligible for QO) sign 2yr 12m

•Matt Garza: made $12.5 mil in 2017 let go

 

Elaborate if needed: Walker was tough for me. I really like what he brought to the table for us but ultimately we need a leadoff hitter with OBP that can run.

 

Free agents

 

#1: Yu Darvish (5 year, $125 mil). Time to go big or go home. I am sick of seeing these middling starters that we pick up. Either get an elite talent or stay in house. The dive in the series that he took may have cost him a year and that is my hope and I think this we may even be able to go less than $125m total.

 

Trades

 

#1: Trade Lewis Brinson, Luis Ortiz, Isan Diaz, Taylor Jungmann and Clint Coulter to Tampa Bay for Chris Archer. The Brewers have tons of prospect depth, and adding Archer gives them a legitimate top-of-the-rotation arm who is under control for the next several years. This gives the the Rays 3 top 100 prospects (one being a top 20). Jungmann can plug in as long relief/filler. Coulter has the bat and could be an OF or DH down the road if he puts it together but he is still a project. With Tampa’s low budget I think this may be an option that intrigues them.

 

#2 Trade Corey Ray, Marcos Diplan and Jorge Lopez to Phillies for Cesar Henderson. I know this is selling low on Ray and Diplan to some extent and the Phillies might see those as signs to come but that is a highly regarded prospects pedigree plus two who were fairly well regarded not too long ago who, with a Phillies team that may not be contending may be given some chances to prove themselves and grow for the team. For the Brewers this shores up their leadoff/2b/obp shortcomings.

 

#3 Villar to anywhere for as close to the Lind trade as you can get. I really liked the Lind trade and think this would be a great opportunity to get something similar for Villar. Villar has his warts and this would definitely be selling low but I just can’t find room for him on my 25 and picking up some low minor players who don’t need to be on the 40 man for a few years will definitely help as we come to next year with a lot of tough choices.

 

Summary

 

My 25:

 

Starters

 

C Pina (.6), 1b Thames (5), 2b Hernandez (4.7), ss Arcia (.6), 3b Shaw (.6), lf/1b Braun (19), OF Phillips (.6), Corner OF Santana (.6)

 

Bench

C Bandy (.6), Util Sogard (2.4), Util Perez (2.2), OF Broxton (.6), Aguilar

 

SP

Darvish (30), Archer (6.4), Anderson (4.75), Davies (.6), Woodruff (.6), Hader (.6)

 

RP

Cl Knebel (4.1), su Swarzak (6), su/7th Barnes (.7), Jeffress (1.5), either Guerra or Suter for lr (.6), loogy Webb or Wang (.6)

 

My 25 comes in at just under $98M in commitments for 2018. The only thing that I am really taking pause about is the backup catcher position. I am a bit nervous with Bandy there so let’s cross our fingers for no dropoff or injury to Pina. If this really comes as a concern we can look at options in season as we do have some space in our payroll.

 

I feel we have a really good chance to take the division with this cast of characters as long as there isn’t any major regression. The hope is that Shaw, Santana and Pina don’t take any steps backwards. Hopefully Arcia can continue to grow this year.

 

For the pitching staff, I think we have a really really good rotation as it stands. I know I won’t be popular for giving a big contract to a 30+ starter but I am really sick of giving $10m+ to mid-tier starters who end up not helping us get over the hump. Go big or stick to your internal guys because I think we have enough mid-tier talent in our farm.

 

You likely notice 6 starters. My thought process is that we piggyback Woodruff and Hader giving one the first 5 innings and the other the last 4 innings of the 5th game. This will help bring Haders innings up while limiting the times through the lineup for each as they build their major league experience. I would flip flop who starts from game to game with those two to give each a taste from either end of the game. The bullpen also is a nice balance I believe and the backend of games should be manageable with the combination of Jeffess, Barnes, Swarzak and Knebel. Guerra or Suter play nice long relief options, especially with Davies who tends to come out of the gates kind of slow. That last spot I could see going to whichever lefty seems to be doing best out of spring training or possibly keeping both Guerra and Suter if Webb and Wang don't look great/ready.

 

I was really trying to find a way to keep Villar around to create a bounce back value but I wasn’t willing to gamble that he isn’t 2017 Villar instead of 2016 Villar and since we resigned Sogard already it would mean either Perez or Villar and given those options I would prefer Perez on this team since we are going for it. I understand Villar’s ceiling is higher that Perez but the floor is lower as well and I can’t see that on a contender.

 

I would also start exploring extensions for Shaw, Santana, Arcia, Hader, Davies and Knebel if they make sense. I am not going to push hard for them but I think the Anderson example or Lucroy’s extension serve as a great starting point and with most of them pre-arbitration we should be able to have a good strategic investment opportunity to lock them up at a long term savings while offering the players a guarantee.

 

From a depth standpoint I am really excited as we have some role players in the minors that should be able to step up when injuries happen. Granted they won’t likely be stars but the dropoff shouldn’t be terrible. Guys like Dubon, Orf and Wren should be able to help bridge the gap on the bench if/when injuries happen. Wilkerson, Ventura, Houser, Archer, Derby and Williams will be able to fill in to the back end of the rotation or bullpen without a huge dropoff.

 

I’m very excited for this season. There is tremendous talent here. There likely will be some growing pains and 2018 may not be the year but I think it will be a fun year and will definitely give us a great opportunity to move forward and get closer to the that 1st World Series championship in Brewtown. I also like the fact that if things gel we have this entire 25 under control if we want at least through 2019. If it isn’t working out the only long term guaranteed contract we have is Darvish. Exciting times to be a Brewers!

[coolhandluke121]

Yelich would be sweet.

[billymac]

My offseason for the Brewers would be:

 

Free Agent Signings:

Alex Avila - 2 year deal to platoon with Pina

Lance Lynn or Tyler Chatwood - 3/4 year deal

Pat Neshek - 2 year deal

Tony Watson or Jake McGee - 2 year deal

 

 

Trade For:

2B - Cesar Henandez

SP - Danny Duffy

 

Trading:

Villar

1 OF of Broxton, Phillips, Santana

 

 

Lineup of

 

Hernandez - 2B

Santana - RF

Shaw - 3B

Braun - LF

Thames/Aguilar - 1B

Brinson/Broxton/Phillips - CF

Pina/Avila - C

Arcia - SS

 

SP

Anderson

Duffy

Lynn or Chatwood

Davies

Woodruff

(*Nelson when he's healthy)

 

RP

Knebel

Neshek

Watson or McGee

Guerra

Hader

T. Williams

Suter

Barnes