Brad Hand

[JohnBriggs12]

What will it take to get this guy? I think he's the best fit out there as a trade target. Adding Hand would allow Hader to transition to starter. Like Hader, Hand is more than a loogy. He's a late inning stud. Might have to give up some talented young pitching from the system and maybe a guy like Perez and/or Broxton or maybe even expand the deal to get Solarte too.

[KeithStone53151]

What will it take to get this guy? I think he's the best fit out there as a trade target. Adding Hand would allow Hader to transition to starter. Like Hader, Hand is more than a loogy. He's a late inning stud. Might have to give up some talented young pitching from the system and maybe a guy like Perez and/or Broxton or maybe even expand the deal to get Solarte too.

 

I remember hearing at the deadline that the ask on Hand was enormous. Like Chapman return enormous. I don't have a source on that. If that's the case, hard pass. In theory I like the idea of adding Hand but not at that cost.

[monty57]

Here's a story from Fangraphs from last trade deadline comparing Hand (and his trade value) to Andrew Miller in 2016.

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-padres-have-this-deadlines-potential-andrew-miller/

 

Miller was traded for Clint Frazier ("Top 30" prospect), Justus Sheffield ("Top 100" prospect), and two upper minors pitcers (Ben Heller and J.P. Feryerson) who were having success and according to MLBtraderumors "could help the Yankees bullpen in the near future."

 

The article did note that relievers are more valuable at the deadline, and that Hand is not Andrew Miller, although they're comparable. Hand was not traded because San Diego did not think the offers they were receiving were high enough, so they have a high price tag for Hand.

 

If we were to match the haul the Yankees received for Miller, we'd probably be looking at Brinson as the headliner along with one of Huira, Ray, Ortiz or Woodruff, plus one or two lesser prospects. As good as Hand is, that too steep a price for the Brewers to pay at this time in my opinion.

[bill hAll Star]

I'll echo: not right now. I'd maybe go in if the Brewers were seriously in the mix/division lead at the deadline. Keep the farm in tact right now.

[Bnowell4evr]

I'd rather do what it takes to sign Mike Minor or Jake McGee in free agency. I'm hoping we save all of our major trade pieces for an elite starting pitcher.

[reillymcshane]

Hand would be great to have, but as others have noted, the cost will be high in prospects, and we can fill the slot via free agency. It's one of the nice things about having financial flexibility - you can simply use money to fill a need.

[brewcrewdue80]

Just spend in FA over using the better prospects to acquire a Relief Pitcher. I'm only moving something significant when it's a studly controllable STarting Pitcher. If we had 40 million more used in projected payroll, with a desire to find a RP then sure trade away some guys if you think this is tipping the scale towards a WS/Division winning team.

 

Just go get say Addison Reed (28) Mike Minor (29) Juan Nicasio (31) Brandon Morrow (32) Bryan Shaw (29) Tony Watson (32)

 

You could nab 2 of those for like 18mil/yr combined for 3 years to pair as 7th and setup. Watson and Shaw have been those types for quite awhile now. You would figure Davis/Holland would want Closer roles, and maybe even Reed.

 

I know guys do that whole trade value thing, and I'm just thinking Hand would have what? 20million surplus value? however that works, with the Padres seeking 60million value return? Just spend that 60mil on 2 RPs for 3 years

[JosephC]

Olney reported that the Padres wanted a Ken Giles type return.

 

Astros got:

P-Ken Giles

IF-Jonathan Arauz (was #21 in Phillies system, "role-player" prospect)

 

Phillies got:

P-Vince Velasquez (recent graduate, would probably been a top 50-100 prospect if still eligible)

P-Mark Appel (#8 prospect in Astros system, lost much of his luster by this time but still considered a solid "top 10 organizational" type prospect)

P-Thomas Eshelman (#17 prospect in Astros system, "role-player" prospect)

P-Brett Oberholtzer (had 3.94 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 3.72 FIP, 100 ERA+ in 253 2/3 innings when the trade occurred, rotation/long-reliever swingman)

P-Harold Arauz (not listed in Baseball America prospect handbook, "fringe" prospect)

 

Velasquez was a recent graduate that had #2 starter upside but potentially a dominate late-inning reliever and kind of fit the same mode that Hader currently does. Appel was a dropper but still well regarded...maybe if you have soured on Corey Ray then the two can be compared even though one is a hitter and one is a pitcher. Oberholtzer really crapped out following the trade, at the time he would not have been considered anything special but was better than "just a guy." I don't think there is a good comparable to a current Brewer but would maybe say he had similar value to current-day Jared Hughes? Jonathan Arauz and Thomas Eshelman cancel each other out. I'd probably say the best overall comparable in a Hand to Milwaukee swap would be Hand for Josh Hader, Corey Ray, Jared Hughes and a fringe prospect...but the Ray part of that is real debatable (I'd argue he currently has much more value than what Appel did but someone could make a reasonable argument the other way).

 

That being said, I think the Padres asking price for Hand will be way down. I really think they were hoping the crazy Chapman/Miller market would repeat itself and it obviously didn't. That being said, it wouldn't at all be unreasonable for the Padres to demand a back-end of the top 100 prospect plus another role-player prospect.

 

In terms of surplus value, Hand's average WAR between Baseball Reference and Fangraphs in 2016 and 2017 is 1.925. Project that over the next two seasons and his total value is 36.498 million. He's projected to make 3.8 million in 2018 and I'll guess 5.6 in 2019, so the cost is 9.4 million. 36.498 - 9.4 = 27.098 million. That's pretty close to the one back-end of top 100 prospect plus a role-player prospect.

[NievesNoNO]

He was a popular name in the off season and at the deadline last season. I'd like him more than some of the starters names thrown out in recent rumors. I'd give up Hiura + for him; I'm sure the cost is still large. If you believe this is a playoff team when healthy then Hand could absolutely be a playoff difference maker. I know that's really getting ahead of things but I do believe this to be a team that is going to make the playoffs. I like the position player mix and don't really think there's much that can be had that would be a great improvement outside of Machado. The Mets seem to be backing off selling DeGrom/Syndergaard and I'm not really enamored with Happ or Stroman as an actual improvement. As of now, Hand is the guy I'm willing to part with significant pieces for.

[wildcat2237]

He was a popular name in the off season and at the deadline last season. I'd like him more than some of the starters names thrown out in recent rumors. I'd give up Hiura + for him; I'm sure the cost is still large. If you believe this is a playoff team when healthy then Hand could absolutely be a playoff difference maker. I know that's really getting ahead of things but I do believe this to be a team that is going to make the playoffs. I like the position player mix and don't really think there's much that can be had that would be a great improvement outside of Machado. The Mets seem to be backing off selling DeGrom/Syndergaard and I'm not really enamored with Happ or Stroman as an actual improvement. As of now, Hand is the guy I'm willing to part with significant pieces for.

 

Our top prospect for a reliever not named Kimbrel or Chapman....no thanks...

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

He was a popular name in the off season and at the deadline last season. I'd like him more than some of the starters names thrown out in recent rumors. I'd give up Hiura + for him; I'm sure the cost is still large. If you believe this is a playoff team when healthy then Hand could absolutely be a playoff difference maker. I know that's really getting ahead of things but I do believe this to be a team that is going to make the playoffs. I like the position player mix and don't really think there's much that can be had that would be a great improvement outside of Machado. The Mets seem to be backing off selling DeGrom/Syndergaard and I'm not really enamored with Happ or Stroman as an actual improvement. As of now, Hand is the guy I'm willing to part with significant pieces for.

 

While the implodization of this board would be worth buying a ticket for if that happened, there is no way they are trading him for a reliever, even one as good as Hand. Injury Messiah is going to be here a while. (Sorry, while Hiura's bat is great, I just don't trust him to stay healthy. Too many red flags in his early career have me worried)

 

If Hiura goes, it's going to be for a controllable starting arm, or possibly a solid, controllable bat at a position of need like Realmuto.

[Fear The Chorizo]

He was a popular name in the off season and at the deadline last season. I'd like him more than some of the starters names thrown out in recent rumors. I'd give up Hiura + for him; I'm sure the cost is still large. If you believe this is a playoff team when healthy then Hand could absolutely be a playoff difference maker. I know that's really getting ahead of things but I do believe this to be a team that is going to make the playoffs. I like the position player mix and don't really think there's much that can be had that would be a great improvement outside of Machado. The Mets seem to be backing off selling DeGrom/Syndergaard and I'm not really enamored with Happ or Stroman as an actual improvement. As of now, Hand is the guy I'm willing to part with significant pieces for.

 

While the implodization of this board would be worth buying a ticket for if that happened, there is no way they are trading him for a reliever, even one as good as Hand. Injury Messiah is going to be here a while. (Sorry, while Hiura's bat is great, I just don't trust him to stay healthy. Too many red flags in his early career have me worried)

 

If Hiura goes, it's going to be for a controllable starting arm, or possibly a solid, controllable bat at a position of need like Realmuto.

 

Maybe the Jays should offer Guerrero jr., or the braves could offer Acuna, since they are also injury prone prospects.

[JosephC]

Wait to see what the reliever market is like. The 2016 reliever market was crazy. 2017 was much different. I still think the 2016 market was an aberration and we won't see those types of prices for relievers again during the next few years. Time will tell on that.

[long ball]

Another lefty reliever in the pen would be great to get through the rest of the season. Teams like the Reds, Nationals, Giants, Cubs, Dodgers, and Braves all have big lefty bats. Since Hader is only used with a lead another lefty reliever would be great to pair with Jennings.

 

I don't have any confidence in Williams, Albers, and Barnes getting out multiple lefties in an inning.

 

Hand likely isn't going to be the guy, but I think another good lefty in the pen is important.

[SRB]

Hand will be overpriced because he has "closer" experience, which we do not need with Knebel/Jeffress/Hader in the bullpen.

 

I would rather target Kirby Yates off the Padres. Arguably a better reliever right now and probably much cheaper.

[tmwiese55]

Sure I'd take him but if there's any area that seems to be well solidified it's the bullpen. If a good value deal arises then why not, you can never have enough bp depth, but it's probably not a spot we should be overpaying to upgrade. And someone like Hand would likely require an overpay

[Roderick]

Sure I'd take him but if there's any area that seems to be well solidified it's the bullpen.

 

Actually I see the bullpen as short another stud. We have the big 3, but then a dropoff to Williams, and then a another dropoff to Barnes, Jennings, and then the rotating door player.

 

Assuming Albers comes back like 2017-April 2018 Albers, then we don't need a stud. But if he went to sucking every other year bullpen guy place, then we need another guy because of how much Counsell relies on the bullpen.

 

We won't have time to see if Burnes can be a bullpen asset before the trade deadline comes and goes.

 

Edit: To be clear, I am not saying I want Hand. I actually would look for someone that isn't a "closer" - like Will Smith or the Marlins BearClaw to round out the bullpen since it doesn't seem like we will be able to acquire an ace, better shorten the game.

[Brew Crew Buster]

Considering how the Brewers would use him, for the rest of this year, I don't see what Hand provides the Brewers that Zack Duke doesn't? If you look at there stats so far this year, other than the irrelevant saves number, Hand isn't performing any better.

 

There are questions as to how each will perform in the future but I think it is wise to not plan a bullpen to far ahead of time.

 

The marginal value of a Hand long term doesn't warrant what will likely be very different asking prices.

[adambr2]

Sure I'd take him but if there's any area that seems to be well solidified it's the bullpen.

 

Actually I see the bullpen as short another stud. We have the big 3, but then a dropoff to Williams, and then a another dropoff to Barnes, Jennings, and then the rotating door player.

 

Assuming Albers comes back like 2017-April 2018 Albers, then we don't need a stud. But if he went to sucking every other year bullpen guy place, then we need another guy because of how much Counsell relies on the bullpen.

 

We won't have time to see if Burnes can be a bullpen asset before the trade deadline comes and goes.

 

Edit: To be clear, I am not saying I want Hand. I actually would look for someone that isn't a "closer" - like Will Smith or the Marlins BearClaw to round out the bullpen since it doesn't seem like we will be able to acquire an ace, better shorten the game.

 

Knebel: 3.52 ERA, 4.47 FIP, 1.04 WHIP, 13.7 K/9

Williams: 2.57 ERA, 3.27 FIP, 1.14 WHIP, 11.3 K/9

 

Where's the dropoff from Knebel to Williams?

[Austin Tatious]

Kiura for Hand is a rather eccentric thought, but to each their own. That sounds like some fantasy that a 15 year old Padre fan would float.

[markedman5]

Indians gave up Mejia to get Hand and Cimber

Ken Rosenthal

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@Ken_Rosenthal

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Hand and Cimber are massive gets for #Indians, reshaping their entire bullpen. Mejia, heading to #Padres, is one of the top catching prospects in the game.

[reillymcshane]

Go to the major league forum for more discussion:

 

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