MLB Trade Rumors Top 50 FAs

[ClosetBrewerFan]

I'd look at younger "project" type pitchers or guys near the end of their career who wont command long term deals. We have enough minor league depth that I dont want any pitchers locked up long term.

 

Sabathia would be my preference on a veteran. Or even RA Dickey.

 

H.Santiago, W.Miley (a lefty would be nice), or Pineda are still young enough that they could comeback.

 

I would take Chatwood if we can get him on a 2 year deal.

 

If they pick up 2 or 3 of these players we have a shot at least one of these having a good year. If they dont produce by mid year, we start trying out some of the rookies.

[clancyphile]

I'll go against the grain and say, bring Luc back for four years, $50 million.

 

Not only does he have a very good bat, but he is one of the best pitch framers in MLB. I'd have no problem letting him catch 110-120 games, and use Pina as the #2.

 

For a team that will have young pitchers, Luc makes a ton of sense.

[homer]

I think Cobb is a good buy-low kinda guy. You could potentially get #3 starter performance out of him at a discount due to the recent Tommy John surgery. Brewers were much better on D last year so that means the lower K rate might not be as big a deal.

[DHonks]

The challenge with Hader is that currently not only does he basically only throw fastballs, but he almost never hits his spots. In some ways he's like an early 90's Randy Johnson. The question is if his stuff will play as tough in innings 1-5 or in innings 6-7. I would like to try him as a starter, but wouldn't mind another year of him in the pen to hone his approach and work on hitting spots.

[reillymcshane]

I think Cobb is a good buy-low kinda guy. You could potentially get #3 starter performance out of him at a discount due to the recent Tommy John surgery. Brewers were much better on D last year so that means the lower K rate might not be as big a deal.

I just don't think Cobb is going to be bought on a discount. Decent stats, pretty young - I bet someone has a 4-year, $50+ million offer for the guy ready to go.

 

Immensely fascinating situation for Cobb. He has some red flags - but a ton of potential. I'm guessing someone overpays for it.

[Outlander]

Clancy, you may remember Lucroy as one of the best pitch framers but that was then, he is now one of the worst. His decline has been swift and they should stay away.

[adambr2]

Yeah, a Lucroy reunion makes no sense IMO. He isn't even an upgrade from Pina. It would just be money down the drain.

[TURBO]

Clancy, you may remember Lucroy as one of the best pitch framers but that was then, he is now one of the worst. His decline has been swift and they should stay away.

 

agreed.

 

I think this is another case of ex-brewer love.

[brewmann04]

I hoe brewers do not throw money away in FA unless it a one year deal i think you see more of a trade for a pitcher is the way DS will go

[BrewCrewBlueDevil]

LuCroy's framing peripherals look worse in Colorado. No doubt. I think if he could be had cheap it would be a wise investment. I'd still rather see him than Bandy or Vogt.

[reillymcshane]

In an article on ESPN, Jerry Crasnick polled 40 general managers, assistant GMs, baseball operations people, and scouts regarding a variety of off season hot stove topics.

 

With regards to the final destination of Jake Arrieta - not a single person picked the Brewers.

 

Most people think he'll end up in Texas. He's from Texas and went to college there.

 

http://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/21385913/hot-stove-survey-stanton-st-louis-otani-bronx-insiders-weigh-winter

[brewcrewdue80]

^^That's good. As a Franchise throwing 12-14million contracts per year is manageable, well not really managed well with sticking with them, but when it turns bad it isn't crippling itself. Arrieta and 20/+ per prediction would be such a tough pill to swallow if he carries a 4+Fip throughout that contract, like those previous 12-14mil contracts turned out. We could use that 6-8million.

 

Eric Hosmer, Mike Moustakas, Lorenzo Cain, Jake Arrieta, Wade Davis, Lance Lynn, Alex Cobb, Greg Holland and Carlos Santana

all turned down the QO and come with the new compensation. How would the Royals have sat if all three actually agreed to the QO?

 

112/113-140 last season, BRef has them around 123 projected at the moment, so that would have been about 177mil if the 3 agreed. It's curious to ponder their Payroll limitations since 112-113 were their two previous highs prior to 140 this year.

That would be near the line where our payroll topped off previously, just under 110mil. Could Mark A. et al push the needle to 125-140mil team payroll these days?

[bill hAll Star]

Woah, Luc at 4/$50 million? I'd have to think that the best offer Lucroy gets is 2/$20 million, and I may be even overshooting that.

[Outlander]

Looking at that Royals team they sure seemed to make some bad decisions during their window and trying to extend that window. That Alex Gordon contract is just horrible right now and the Kennedy contract isn't far behind. Of course it is hindsight but in order to keep these windows these small market teams have to hit on who to let walk and who to sign to long term deals. Probably would rather have Eric Hosmer & Mike Moustakas now, who are still at the later stages of their prime vs negative value players like Gordon and Kennedy who they resigned past their prime.

[bill hAll Star]

Looking at that Royals team they sure seemed to make some bad decisions during their window and trying to extend that window. That Alex Gordon contract is just horrible right now and the Kennedy contract isn't far behind. Of course it is hindsight but in order to keep these windows these small market teams have to hit on who to let walk and who to sign to long term deals. Probably would rather have Eric Hosmer & Mike Moustakas now, who are still at the later stages of their prime vs negative value players like Gordon and Kennedy who they resigned past their prime.

 

Yes, and if your owner allows you to, I don't blame them. The other option would have been to sell off Mous, Hosmer, etc. earlier than they did. The fool's gold run they had before the deadline this year did them in a bit.

 

The optimists view of it would be that Kennedy and Hammel do well enough in front of that defense and Gordon lived up to the deal on offense. Maybe they'd have still been competitive in 2017 and then they could decide to re-up the big 3 and see what happens 2018-2020. Their farm isn't anything special and they weren't going to make any sort of free agent splash or trade. This was pretty much their only path other than selling everyone off after 2015, which is an impossible sell from an ownership standpoint. Even after 2016.

 

They probably knew Gordon was an overpay but now that they're going into what looks like a lengthy rebuild, he'll be gone when it matters.

 

Yordanno's death hurt their chances in recent years and not selling off Mous/Hosmer/Cain were probably the only negatives. This was inevitable otherwise. They were either going to be seeing if they could overpay the gang to compete after 2017 or they were going to be cleaning house regardless.

[JohnBriggs12]

Clancy, you may remember Lucroy as one of the best pitch framers but that was then, he is now one of the worst. His decline has been swift and they should stay away.

 

Pitch framing is more dependent on the type of pitches thrown than what the catcher does. If you have a staff with a lot of pitchers throwing high 80's, low 90's cutters and consistent sinkers, a catcher will get more credit than with a staff full of hard throwers with a ton of movement. Lucroy hasn't lost his ability to catch. Lucroy has been a premier catcher because of his bat, arm, and ability to block pitches, not because of pitch framing. His bat has slipped some, but he still blocks balls and throws well. Pina looks solid but he burst on to the seen as a 30 year old, so he's not a long term answer either. I wouldn't consider catcher to be a huge need, but I'd like to see a LH catcher to go along with Pina. Vogt has the bat but will his arm ever come back to serviceable?

[reillymcshane]

Dave Cameron at Fangraphs did his Top 50 free agents. While he doesn't have predictions on where they will sign, he did put dollar figures next to each player - plus the dollars predicted by their crowdsource. It gives a little different take on what kinds of dollars these guys might expect.

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2018-top-50-free-agents/

 

Some players associated with the Crew or talked a lot about by some of our posters:

 

Neil Walker - 3 years/$33M

Arietta - 4/$96M

Chatwood - 3/$10M

Lance Lynn - 3/$48M

Sabathia - 2/$30M

Cobb - 4/$60M

Hosmer - 6/$126M

Lucroy - 1/$12M (thinks he'll try and build back up his stock)

Swarzak - 3/$15M

Neshak - 2/$14M

Cashner - 2/$20M

[bill hAll Star]

Holy crap...Chatwood at 3/$10? He comes with risk, but where do I sign?

 

I'm also not a major fan of Lynn, but if you can do it for only 3 years, sign me up.

[mlloyd10]

Would do Lynn at half the cost everyday over Arietta

[brewcrewdue80]

Holy crap...Chatwood at 3/$10? He comes with risk, but where do I sign?

 

I'm also not a major fan of Lynn, but if you can do it for only 3 years, sign me up.

 

 

Chatwood is a mistake it is 3/30 10AAV.

 

Based on the writeup, I would be all-in on Bryan Shaw who's been consistently successful, and now throwing harder.

 

 

Lynn. If you heard that 3/48 would sign Lynn, the Brewers had better offer 49.85mil for 3 years and laugh at the Cardinals because they won't get the higher pick comp for under 50mil signing. I think in no way is Lynn getting any less than 60million.

 

In Chatwood's case, I'd also question if Lynn is #15 on a top 50 list making 48-60, then how is Chatwood #17 and only getting 30mil? Chatwood's career Road ERA is 3.31. a .241/.326/.366/.692 slash line. Very Respectable.

 

For that price 3/30 it's a no brainer as you know if he resembles more like the Colorado stat version vs this road version, you certainly could trade him away to a rebuilding team while paying off 3-6mil a year of what's left of his contract.

 

Days are going by fast, Halloween felt like last week, and yet next week is Thanksgiving! I'm anxious to see some signings just to get a feel on the market.

[bill hAll Star]

Chatwood is a mistake it is 3/30 10AAV.

 

Oops, I should have read the actual article. I'd still take him at that price.

[Warning Track Power]

I am torn on Walker at 3 years and $33 million. I think Dubon will replace Perez as the super utility as soon as mid-2018 but am not sure he is the answer at 2B. The question becomes when does Hiura start knocking on the door? If the answer is 2019, then you let Villar-Perez-Dubon hold down 2B in 2018. If the answer is 2020, then I would re-sign Walker at that price.

[KeithStone53151]

The challenge with Hader is that currently not only does he basically only throw fastballs, but he almost never hits his spots. In some ways he's like an early 90's Randy Johnson. The question is if his stuff will play as tough in innings 1-5 or in innings 6-7. I would like to try him as a starter, but wouldn't mind another year of him in the pen to hone his approach and work on hitting spots.

 

This is blatantly false. If you watched him pitch, you'd know that. He may have struggled with his command early on but got much better as the season progressed. It shows in his 2 BB in 16+ IP in Sept/Oct. He really started to harness his command at a point in August.

 

And he also throws his offspeed stuff often enough, and the amount increased as the season went on. He ended throwing heat roughly 4 of 5 pitches, most starters throw FB roughly 3 of 5 pitches. Many high end pitchers relied more heavily on their fastball early in their career(in the 70% range). Look at fangraphs for guys like Strasburg, Kershaw, Scherzer, etc.

 

I am mildly concerned with how his stuff will hold up if he's throwing 5-6 innings every 5 days. I would hope that we try skipping Hader every so often on an off day to keep him his innings down as he builds to that 200 limit.

[pacopete4]

NO- Neil Walker - 3 years/$33M

HELL NO- Arietta - 4/$96M

MAYBE, if 3rd year is a team option- Chatwood - 3/$30M

MAYBE, if 3rd year is a team option- Lance Lynn - 3/$48M

NO- Sabathia - 2/$30M

NO- Cobb - 4/$60M

LOL NO- Hosmer - 6/$126M

UGH, YES, if this is all he costs- Lucroy - 1/$12M (thinks he'll try and build back up his stock)

YES- Swarzak - 3/$15M

YES- Neshak - 2/$14M

NO- Cashner - 2/$20M

[FVBrewerFan]

No to all of this. Maybe Swarzak or Neshak if they really want to do that, fine. Not time yet to spend big money on a SP. Certainly not on a Walker or Hosmer. Get the fire going good befre you throw the big wood on top. Right now, we're still blowing the kindling.