MLB Trade Rumors Top 50 FAs

[BuckyBrewer61]

This! In addition, add Pat Neshek(2 years, 12 million).

 

Agreed, Neshek has had 4 years of being very good. I know he's old but he seems unhittable whenever we face him, and the numbers are pretty darn good too. Do people just get scared because of his delivery? Sign me up

[MrTPlush]

If one more person say “such a Doug Melvin move” I may burn down Miller Park. It was MARK ATTANASIO pushing for most of if not all of those big contracts for aging pitchers.

 

Uh, the owner is still there. If Stearns is strong enough to make his own decisions and Melvin wasn't than it's safe to call them "Doug Melvin moves"

 

It’s called a change of philosophy by the owner and giving the reins to the GM fully(or near fully as you can get. Doug Melvin never had that kind of control and was forced to do whatever he had to do to put a “competing” team on the field.

 

I’m not going to derail the thread and argue this topic because it is a pretty easy concept to understand.

[bill hAll Star]

Honest question: What was the collateral damage of signing Garza, Lohse, and Suppan?

 

The draft pick we gave up for Lohse and the inability to get Manny Parra, Chris Narveson, and Wily Peralta into the rotation?

 

The part of it that is harder to decipher is who they may or may not have been able to sign/keep, but honestly other than an argument of "reliever X would've been better than paying Suppan's $ in 2009" I'm not sure who we missed out on.

[JosephC]

Neshek keeps rolling right along but his age is starting to be a concern. Wouldn't mind targeting him at all but would want to limit it to a one-year deal.

[KeithStone53151]

I think their estimates are low on Walker and possibly Swarzak as well. The only thing going against Swarzak is he only had the 1 good year. It might be tough to get a team to buy in on that. Walker I think will get more in the 3/40 range. Arrieta's contract is probably about right, but we damn well better not be signing him. That's one of very few moves Stearns could make that would get me to turn on him.

[monty57]

Honest question: What was the collateral damage of signing Garza, Lohse, and Suppan?

 

We had to watch Garza, Lahse and Suppan pitch

 

Edit: That was kind of a joke. Seriously, for several years we were right up against max payroll, and always having so-so pitchers making eight figure salaries probably kept us from upgrading elsewhere. Players like Yuni B. and the second coming of Overbay should not get significant time on a team that was supposed to be competitive, but it was all we could afford.

[bill hAll Star]

Honest question: What was the collateral damage of signing Garza, Lohse, and Suppan?

 

We had to watch Garza, Lahse and Suppan pitch

 

They were still in the top 5 options to start for the Brewers in the majority of years that they pitched for the Brewers.

 

Note: I despised the Suppan signing and it's not like I was a huge fan of Garza or Lohse.

[JosephC]

All the reports are that there shouldn't be much of a market out there for second basemen this off-season. Not sure if that's true or not. But if a weak second base market drives down the price for someone like Dee Gordon on the trade market, one also has to figure it would limit the top end of offers that Walker will receive. Walker obviously has versatility, but a team that signs him will very likely be looking at him playing second base the vast majority of the time. Will be interesting to see how it shakes out. 3/40 isn't crazy for him but I don't think 2/20 is crazy for him either, especially if the second base market will be what they seem to think it will be.

 

Swarzak just doesn't have enough of a track record to go much over what they are projecting IMO.

[bill hAll Star]

I think Swarzak's success can be attributed going to throwing his slider on over 50% of pitches starting in 2016. He did it in 2016 with a bit less velocity and struggled a bit in a smaller sample of games. In 2017 he was dominant for most of the season.

 

I'd bet on him at least being a good pitcher, but I'm not sure how long his arm can sustain it, either.

[Madhawk23]

I had omitted Chatwood during the initial look-through as I think that contract is way lower than what he'll actually get. But if his numbers really are 3 years, 20 million then he would be near the top of my want list along with Swarzak and Hunter.

 

I'd be all for going after a guy like Tyler Chatwood. Here's a guy who is entering his prime years, and has seemingly put up some solid numbers the past two seasons after coming back from TJ surgery - and his road numbers outside of Coors this past season appear to be significantly better than his home numbers. Seems like a guy that could really flourish outside of that hitters environment in Colorado. Man, even if you could get him for 3 years, 27-30 million - I think he might be worth the gamble. And, much less of a gamble then giving Arrieta 100 million for 4 years!

 

I also like Tommy Hunter for that 2 year 12 million deal, but I'm guessing other teams would like that as well - which leads me to believe that he'd get more.

 

But, if we could get Chatwood, Hunter and Swarzak signed this offseason - that would be a pretty solid haul in my opinion. Then, maybe you find another younger SP in a trade - and you'd really be set going into 2018. Even without a trade, you could go with a rotation of: Anderson, Davies, Chatwood, Woodruff, Guerra/Suter/Jungmann - and you just hope you get Nelson back mid-season. Then, you'd have a pen of Knebel, Hunter, Swarzak, Hader (I'd prefer we just turn him into a light's out lefty in the pen), Barnes, Jeffress. That's pretty solid.

[OnaBadger58]

One player I would poke around at: Howie Kendrick

 

Kendrick - I may be a little biased as Howie has been one of my favorite players since he was a minor leaguer with the Angels, but Kendrick would fit in well with the Brewers for 2 years. His primary position has been 2nd base, but he can also play in left. Offensively, he doesn't strike out much and I think he's a perfect 2-hole hitter for this team. His approach is to all fields.

 

*Also, I know the relationship didn't end on the best terms, but can Lucroy come back to the Crew?

[monty57]

I agree with those saying they'd take Chatwood at around 3/$20M over Arrieta at 4/$100M.

 

I'd be hesitant to sign Walker to a three-year deal, but I would love to have him back at the proposed 2/$20M.

 

We could do those two deals and still have enough to sign two quality relievers. Swarzak (2/$14M) seems likely to be one and if they can find another in the same price range, that would put them in the low-$90M range for payroll. That would allow room for arby raises in 2019 and then Walker, Swarzak and the other reliever would fall off the books in 2020 as more guys start getting expensive.

[bill hAll Star]

If that's what Chatwood really will cost, sign me up for that over Arrieta as well.

[mlloyd10]

Trade for Madison Bumgarner and Dee Gordon

Sign Mike Moustakas and a RP

[bill hAll Star]

Trade for Madison Bumgarner and Dee Gordon

Sign Mike Moustakas and a RP

 

I'm assuming if Bumgarner was on the market that somebody else could easily trump our offer of elite prospects. If we really won out on the bidding, we'd be back in the toilet in 2020.

[NOMAAM]

Tanaka not opting out. Guessing the medicals on his arm aren't so good.

[Austin Tatious]

I like what Swarzak did but I wouldn’t give him a third year unless the salary is very reasonable as a trade off.

 

I would not give Arrieta that many years. No way.

 

I think we make some aggressive trades instead of throwing cash at Arrieta.

 

I would not assume that ownership hasn’t learned from Looper, Suppan, Wolf, Lohse, et al.

[Wangster]

Astros definitely need bullpen help and its go time (win now).

 

Why spend money and give a draft pick on a aging closer when they can trade for a cheap, young and controllable closer.

 

Corey Knebel for:

 

Forrest Whitley - finally a legitimate TOR prospect

Yordan Alvarez - upside; lefthanded bat

Corbin Martin - reminds me of Knebel but has a chance as a starter

Elian Rodriguez - lottery ticket

 

Hate to give up Knebel but relievers are volatile and he is a perfect sell high candidate. Continue to build for the future.

[adambr2]

Arrieta is an exciting projection in name, but the HR rate, age, and drop in velocity all scare me. 4/100 sounds fair, but it's not a matter of if that contract becomes an albatross, it's a matter of when. If we got 3 highly productive years as an ace/#2, it'd be well worth it. But I'd bet more on 1-2.

[rickh150]

If one more person say “such a Doug Melvin move” I may burn down Miller Park. It was MARK ATTANASIO pushing for most of if not all of those big contracts for aging pitchers.

 

Uh, the owner is still there. If Stearns is strong enough to make his own decisions and Melvin wasn't than it's safe to call them "Doug Melvin moves"

 

Strong enough? If Attanasio differs with DS and wants Arrieta and will spend whatever to get him, would DS then be weak? Should DS quit then? I struggle with the logic here. Was any move by Melvin altered in any way because of Garza's contract? No.

[adambr2]

Was any move by Melvin altered in any way because of Garza's contract? No.

 

How would we have any idea if this is true or not?

[JohnBriggs12]

Andrew Cashner is projected by MLBTR to get $20 million over two years. He'd be a good fit at that price and length.

[nate82]

Andrew Cashner is projected by MLBTR to get $20 million over two years. He'd be a good fit at that price and length.

 

Wow something I agree with Briggs on. This is rare must go buy lotto ticket now!

[JosephC]

I'd avoid Cashner. Terrible strikeout rate (4.6 K/9) and strikeout/BB ratio (1.34) in 2017. Had very low BABIP and HR/FB ratios last year. In 2015 and 2016 he had an 11-27 record, 4.72 ERA, 1.48 WHIP, 81 ERA+ which are bad but a fairly reasonable 4.27 FIP. Maybe he'll maintain what he did in 2017, but I'd lean towards thinking he'd revert back towards the 2015/2016 level of performance.

 

2017 = 11-11, 3.40 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 138 ERA+, 4.61 FIP

2015-2017 = 22-38, 4.26 ERA, 1.42 WHIP, 97 ERA+, 4.38 FIP

 

Not unreasonable to think he'd be a solid 4.20-4.30 ERA pitcher and give a team 170 innings based on the 3 year splits, which for 10 million per year is more than fair from a club's perspective. There are just too many scary peripherals from last year that indicate his performance could fall off of the cliff.

[Cool Hand Lucroy]

I want no part of Arrieta. I don't like the dip in velocity, and I worry about this year's HR rate, especially at Miller Park. Granted, everyone's giving up more homers now, but I'd rather spend the payroll flexibility elsewhere. Arrieta is a good pitcher and would be probably be solid for at least half of a 4 year contract, but is he the guy you want to use the cash on? I just think 4/100 can get something (or multiple somethings) with more aggregate value at a time when the team is closer to being WS contenders.