MLB Trade Rumors Top 50 FAs

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2017/11/2017-18-top-50-mlb-free-agents-with-predictions.html

 

Pretty interesting read. Has the Brewers being a big player and signing Arrieta (4 years, $100 million) and resigning Swarzak and Walker. That would make for a pretty interesting off-season.

[pacopete4]

Arrieta is a tool. No thanks.

[Warning Track Power]

Arrieta 4 years @ $100m

Walker 2 years @ $20m

Swarzak 2 years @ $14m

 

The latter two I would definitely do, the first one is difficult for me to swallow. Would the Brewers be better getting Lynn for 4 years @ $56 AND/OR Cobb 4 years @ $48? Maybe it would be better to sign Morrow for 3 years @ $24 and really try to shorten the game with a Swarzak-Morrow-Knebel 7-8-9? Arrieta, while certainly in excellent shape, could be an albatross in year 4. Flip side, Arietta could head a very above average rotation with the return of Nelson (Arietta-Anderson-Nelson-Davies-Woodruff sure looks strong).

 

In Stearns we trust...

[MrTPlush]

If Jake Arrieta gives me 3 great years he can fall off a cliff the fourth year and I won't shed a single tear.

[Madhawk23]

I just don't see us being a player for Arrieta. I know we have payroll flexibility, but this just seems like too much of a Doug Melvin move to me - giving too much money to a SP past his prime years and regretting it 2 years into the 4 year deal. I don't like the fact that Arrieta has regressed the past two seasons after that phenomenal 2015 season, and he just doesn't go deep into games anymore. Ultimately, I think one of the bigger market teams ends up with him, as they are in a much better position to gamble on a guy like Arrieta.

[JosephC]

I really like Anthony Swarzak (2 years, 14 million) and Tommy Hunter (2 years, 12 million) with those contracts. I also think Alex Avila (2 years, 16 million) and Neil Walker (2 years, 20 million) would be solid buys. Not really interested in any of the other deals listed on this page.

[MrTPlush]

If one more person say “such a Doug Melvin move” I may burn down Miller Park. It was MARK ATTANASIO pushing for most of if not all of those big contracts for aging pitchers.

[Madhawk23]

If one more person say “such a Doug Melvin move” I may burn down Miller Park. It was MARK ATTANASIO pushing for most of if not all of those big contracts for aging pitchers.

 

Fair enough. I guess I'm just hoping that DS exerts a bit more power in pushing back at Mark A. if he tries to force his hand in making deals like this for aging SP's past their prime. I agree with you that these really are probably Mark A. moves, but the fact is - Doug Melvin was the GM when the moves went down - so right or wrong, he gets credit for them.

[AKCheesehead]

If Jake Arrieta gives me 3 great years he can fall off a cliff the fourth year and I won't shed a single tear.

 

Agreed, but the size of the "if" means I want nothing to do with that signing. 100mil/4 years when we've got a lot of true potential in our prospects smacks of a regrettable move.

[MillerParkSouth]

The nice thing about most of our talent being pre arby is that we could actually afford to make a signing like Arietta without it having too much financial impact (relatively speaking). I would feel a lot better about a deal like that if it were only 3 years though.

[JosephC]

I had omitted Chatwood during the initial look-through as I think that contract is way lower than what he'll actually get. But if his numbers really are 3 years, 20 million then he would be near the top of my want list along with Swarzak and Hunter.

[brewmann04]

if it means help getting to an winning a WS then i am all for it.

[MrTPlush]

I wouldn’t mind going crazy for a few relievers and then Walker or a starter. Make a super pen.

[nate82]

If the Cardinals non-tender Trevor Rosenthal I would look at possibly picking him up and seeing if he can be that dominant pitcher again.

 

I don't want to see the Brewers going after any free agent starting pitchers this off season there just isn't any I would want to pick up.

[Warning Track Power]

I wouldn’t mind going crazy for a few relievers and then Walker or a starter. Make a super pen.

This is my preferred way to build a consistently competitive small market baseball team. The Brewers have never had an issue with drafting or finding hitting. Focus your draft on SP so you don't have to buy Suppan, Lohse or Garza. I am all for buying RP to shorten the back end of the game as I think the Brewers can compete with the financials for RP much easier than SP. A pen full of Knebel, Hader, Swarzak and say Brandon Morrow is the start to an elite bullpen.

[FVBrewerFan]

I agree with building a elite pen, been saying for years it's one area where small market teams can compete with anyone.

 

That said, I don't like short term contracts at this stage. I want to see innings given to young guts from the system. There will be a time to buy a reliever or two, and a bat. I guess it's because I think they are still early on in the rebuilding process.

[LouisEly]

Assuming the Brewers give Hader every opportunity to succeed as a starter, I go for another lefty in the pen - Jake McGee or Tony Watson. That they didn't call up Webb in September implies they don't have a lot of confidence in him.

[brewcrewdue80]

Arrieta for 4/100? vs. Lynn for 4/56? We'd sign away a QO to the Cubs. Why doesn't Arrieta bet on himself to actually be a 25mil guy and take the QO, and test FA next season.

 

14mil per for a 3WAR SP in Lynn? Way low estimate. but if that is all it costs. #1 to that!

[bill hAll Star]

I’m fine if they trust letting the young guys play, but I am definitely not opposed to bigger money.

 

I think there is some overvaluation with our own system as to what it can do at the MLB level. I love the depth, but if you do nothing with the rotation, you get an injury or two and you’re throwing Taylor Jungmann out there as your #4 with an unproven Woodruff at 3 or something like that.

 

You’ve probably got an 84 win team with the same roster sans Nelson.

 

That’s not terrible if you have the right vision, but I just think there are things like “wanting to see what the young guys can do” are destined to underwhelm. I have little excitement in seeing Dubon come up. I have a feeling Jungmann and Guerra’s “let’s try this again” years don’t excite me.

 

I love the depth of the system but nobody knocking on the door save for Brinson and Hader if he gets it right move the needle, and that’s fine.

 

If you were forced to go 3 years with Walker and he regresses at the end, don’t be afraid to go to Hiura. If Arrieta falls off that cliff in year 4, make him a $25 million setup man and bring up Peralta.

 

I think the Brewers have a somewhat unique situation given they did not tank for elite players but have a deep farm system. Spend your money to acquire players and keep shuffling the waves through. I’m not sure I see a 4 year window of 100+ win seasons, but I see a way to consistently win 85+ games for a decade and strike when the iron is hot. Keep the contracts short and keep your system depth.

 

I won’t say we have the magic farm system pixie dust to work the same magic as the Cardinals, but I see an above average team for many years to come with depth at most positions in the organization and the ability to spend to fill the gaps.

[Brewer Fever]

If one more person say “such a Doug Melvin move” I may burn down Miller Park. It was MARK ATTANASIO pushing for most of if not all of those big contracts for aging pitchers.

 

Uh, the owner is still there. If Stearns is strong enough to make his own decisions and Melvin wasn't than it's safe to call them "Doug Melvin moves"

[brewmann04]

The owner willing to spend when needed makes me happy but DS has acquired a lot of talent in the OF and Middle Inf that at some point he will move some of them for a possible Starter

[Jaylyn]

I really like Anthony Swarzak (2 years, 14 million) and Tommy Hunter (2 years, 12 million) with those contracts. I also think Alex Avila (2 years, 16 million) and Neil Walker (2 years, 20 million) would be solid buys. Not really interested in any of the other deals listed on this page.

 

This! In addition, add Pat Neshek(2 years, 12 million). Use Santana and/or Aguilar plus a couple of prospects not named Erceg, Brinson, or Gatewood for a starter. Keon to SF for a recovering Will Smith, can't remember who proposed that, but a great idea. Call it a day and head to spring training!

[JohnBriggs12]

Unless the prognosis for Nelson is dire, I just can't see spending the money on Arietta. I'd much rather spend that kind of money on a hitter like Hosmer who would allow them to use another hitter in a deal for a younger pitcher with some control. There's a reason the Cubs are going to let him go elsewhere and deal for an arm. The Brewers should do the same thing. Santana's value is high right now. Hosmer would fill his spot in the lineup, and they could make do with a combo of Thames, Phillips and Perez in RF.

 

The other option is dealing for a guy like Samardzija who's overpriced but still extremely useful and would only be a 3 year commitment.

[JosephC]

I agree with building a elite pen, been saying for years it's one area where small market teams can compete with anyone.

 

That said, I don't like short term contracts at this stage. I want to see innings given to young guts from the system. There will be a time to buy a reliever or two, and a bat. I guess it's because I think they are still early on in the rebuilding process.

 

I don't think the Brewers have enough arms at this point even when counting the young guys.

 

It's very unlikely that Burnes and Ortiz will start next season in the majors regardless of their minor league numbers or placement on top prospect lists. At best the Brewers do see them as major league contributors but even so will likely want their innings limited early in the season and will want to play the service time game with them and avoid calling them up until a couple months into the season.

 

I'm only counting 8 arms that I have confidence in. Chase Anderson, Zach Davies, Brent Suter, Brandon Woodruff, Jacob Barnes, Josh Hader, Jeremy Jeffress, Corey Knebel. Personally I'm not real big on Jared Hughes but would agree that he is good enough where he could be #9. After that the guys I would classify as insurance would be Junior Guerra (coming off a bad year I'll assume he could get DFA'ed and would accept a spring training invitation), Tyler Webb, Aaron Wilkerson, Taylor Williams. That would put the Brewers up to 9 solid MLB options and 13 total with the "insurance policy" pitchers. But I think a team should be at about 13 MLB options and 16 total when entering spring training. And let's say the Brewers did go into next season with only the 13 pitchers that I named and then had Burnes and Ortiz as options #14 and #15, that would mean 8 of their 15 pitching options would have <1 year of MLB experience and IMO that's banking on the idea that too many young players can get the job done. As for some of the other pitchers on the 40 man roster like Jungmann, Lopez and Wang...their usage last year is a pretty strong indicator of what the Brewers currently think about them (not much) so I think odds are strong that they are out of the mix as MLB options (injuries to other pitchers could change that). I firmly believe if the Brewers want to maintain/improve on that win total from last year that they need to acquire a minimum of 2 and preferably 3 veteran pitchers this off-season.

[JohnBriggs12]

I agree with building a elite pen, been saying for years it's one area where small market teams can compete with anyone.

 

That said, I don't like short term contracts at this stage. I want to see innings given to young guts from the system. There will be a time to buy a reliever or two, and a bat. I guess it's because I think they are still early on in the rebuilding process.

 

I don't think the Brewers have enough arms at this point even when counting the young guys.

 

It's very unlikely that Burnes and Ortiz will start next season in the majors regardless of their minor league numbers or placement on top prospect lists. At best the Brewers do see them as major league contributors but even so will likely want their innings limited early in the season and will want to play the service time game with them and avoid calling them up until a couple months into the season.

 

I'm only counting 8 arms that I have confidence in. Chase Anderson, Zach Davies, Brent Suter, Brandon Woodruff, Jacob Barnes, Josh Hader, Jeremy Jeffress, Corey Knebel. Personally I'm not real big on Jared Hughes but would agree that he is good enough where he could be #9. After that the guys I would classify as insurance would be Junior Guerra (coming off a bad year I'll assume he could get DFA'ed and would accept a spring training invitation), Tyler Webb, Aaron Wilkerson, Taylor Williams. That would put the Brewers up to 9 solid MLB options and 13 total with the "insurance policy" pitchers. But I think a team should be at about 13 MLB options and 16 total when entering spring training. And let's say the Brewers did go into next season with only the 13 pitchers that I named and then had Burnes and Ortiz as options #14 and #15, that would mean 8 of their 15 pitching options would have <1 year of MLB experience and IMO that's banking on the idea that too many young players can get the job done. As for some of the other pitchers on the 40 man roster like Jungmann, Lopez and Wang...their usage last year is a pretty strong indicator of what the Brewers currently think about them (not much) so I think odds are strong that they are out of the mix as MLB options (injuries to other pitchers could change that). I firmly believe if the Brewers want to maintain/improve on that win total from last year that they need to acquire a minimum of 2 and preferably 3 veteran pitchers this off-season.

 

Guerra is certainly not going to get DFA'd with Nelson on the shelf. If they were ready to give up on him, he'd be gone already. Not sure what is role will be (he threw the ball well out of the pen in September) but it wouldn't shock me to see him at the back end of the rotation either. Last year was a lost year in large part because the injury set him back. No reason not to see if he can bounce back. His stuff is still really good and if they DFA'd him, they'd almost certainly lose him and have to go out and sign some other veteran on the cheap.