Hyun-Jin Ryu

[JosephC]

Positives:

-Effective MLB pitcher. 3.41 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 109 ERA+ in 475 1/3 major league innings.

-Was good when on the mound in 2017. 3.77 ERA, 1.37 WHIP, 111 ERA+ in 126 2/3 innings. The FIP was a high 4.74 but was elevated due to a high HR/FB ratio (18.6%), the xFIP was 4.14.

-Was very consistent when on the mound in 2017. Worst monthly ERA was 4.73 in June, second worst monthly ERA was 4.20 in September.

 

Negatives:

-Significant injury history (torn labrum in 2015).

-Is now a five innings/start type pitcher. Even if he stays relatively healthy he probably tops out at about 150 innings.

-Cannot pitch out of the bullpen. Past injury requires extensive warmup routine which makes using him as a regular reliever impossible.

 

He will make 7 million dollars in 2018 and then the contract has ended.

 

Ryu seemingly has no value to the Dodgers. Even if the Dodgers make no pitching moves this offseason they will return Kershaw, Hill, Maeda, Wood and McCarthy. Kazmir was rehabbing in A ball at the end of the year so either he or McCarthy are likely starter #6. Buehler and Stewart are quality insurances pieces so they are at least 8 players deep for rotation candidates. Ryu also has it in his contract that he cannot be sent to the minors without his consent, IMO that makes it almost impossible for him to be in the Dodger's organization on opening day. They will likely try to trade him and if not he becomes a prime DFA candidate unless he agrees to go the minors (and it needs to be mentioned that he is a Scott Boras client).

 

Ryu is fairly attractive when looking at those "bottom of the market" candidates because he's actually performed well when on the mound. But the negatives are so significant that they probably do knock him down to a "bottom of the market" type player. The contract is probably high enough to scare all of the smaller market teams that has limited budget space and would bigger market teams have that much interest in him when stacked against free agent starters and other starters that are also on the trade block?

 

It's hard to project him at anything more than a 1 WAR pitcher at this point so when looking at the surplus value angle his value on the market should really only be 1 fringe prospect. If there turns out to be no market for Ryu it's not crazy to think a team that would be interested in trading for him could ask the Dodgers to include some money in the deal.

 

I'd hope Ryu could provide quality innings for the Brewers through the first couple months, at least get to the point where if he did start having some physical issues that either Ortiz or Burnes would then be ready for their big league shot. I certainly wouldn't be looking at Ryu as option A, but if the pitching market is commanding real high prices a couple weeks into free agency then Ryu might be an alright plan B.

[bill hAll Star]

About the only reason I could see getting him for nothing is if the Dodgers are dead set on getting below the luxury tax threshold.

 

They'll find ways with fake DL stints to keep him around for depth or a trade chip later in the year, probably. With how scarce pitching is, there will likely be a market.

[KeithStone53151]

I like the target, I'm not so sure on the cost. With how scarce pitching is as you say, other teams would surely be in on Ryu if made available.