Brewers extend Chase Anderson

[adambr2]

I'm very thankful to be in these shoes, because a lot of people don't get to this point. It means my family is taken care of and I can just focus on baseball and we can win a World Series," Anderson said. "The timing for me was right, being in the middle of arbitration. I'm not a guy that likes to truly go year to year. It's a gamble. When a team offers you an extension and it's guaranteed money, it's hard to turn it down. It's security for your family. I'm a person who wants my family to be taken care of no matter what happens."

 

Bingo, Chase. Wish more guys thought this way instead of just dreaming of bigger numbers.

 

No matter what happens to you now, you and your family will never have to worry about money again. That's all anybody reasonable could ever dream of. Anything else is just the cherry on top.

[patrickgpe]

With Chase signing a team friendly, relatively low cost deal, let the conversations of his trade value and the numerous top 100 prospects we could get begin in 3...2....1

I can't see why the brewers would do this to trade him. They are getting closer and closer to being a contender so there is no sense in trading one of their top 2 starters who is in a team friendly deal for 4 seasons. Especially with Nelson missing "significant time" this season, he will be looked at to lead the pitching staff not be trade bait.

 

It's a joke...since some people on here always think we should trade peole. No matter what.

duh should have figured, seemed to ridiculous to be legit

[dacbrewers]

I think he sold himself short. Wouldn't he have made 6 million this year under Arbitration?

[MadThinker88]

I think he sold himself short. Wouldn't he have made 6 million this year under Arbitration?

 

Maybe. Depends if he & the Crew even got in front of a arbitrator.

 

What happens if he goes out in 2018 and messes up the shoulder? Going year to year he would not have gotten much if anything for 2019 & 2020.

With the contract in place he has money levels guaranteed for those years & assuming he has decent performance those options will get picked up & he will make a lot more than $12MM over the course of the contract.

 

This reminds me of the contract deals the Indians cut with Kluber, Carassco & Jose Ramirez. All look like major bargains at this point but the player got security in case of injury or poor performance.

[folly412]

Worst case we're on the hook for '18 and '19 at hardly bank-breaking costs should things go poor or injuries happen. Best case is a #2 calibur starter for four years at a fraction of market value. Fantastic deal.

[Eye Black]

With Chase signing a team friendly, relatively low cost deal, let the conversations of his trade value and the numerous top 100 prospects we could get begin in 3...2....1

I get the joke, and it did make me chuckle. That being said, there is truth to the fact that his value today is higher than it was yesterday based on this contract. Add this extension to list of the calculated moves made by this front office that are tough not to like.

[reillymcshane]

I think he sold himself short. Wouldn't he have made 6 million this year under Arbitration?

Anderson gets $4.25M this year - plus a $1M signing bonus. Total of $5.25M. MLB Trade Rumors had him at $5.4M for arby - so that's about right.

 

However, where he sold himself short is probably in 2019 (and beyond), where he's getting $6M. If he had gone to arby and gotten around $5M or so - and then had a good year - he would be poised to make $7.5M or more in 2018. His other options just get more and more bargain-y if he keeps pitching solid.

 

He does have incentives for 2018 and 2019 - but only 400k each year.

 

If he had gone year-to-year, and pitched solid - not great - but solid - let's say around a 4.00 ERA. He could have salaries of $5M (2018), $7.5M (2019) and $10M (2020). That's around $22.5M.

 

If we pick up his 2020 option, he's getting nearly $20M. So he's missing out on $2-3M - plus giving up a year of free agency.

 

But hey, the guy isn't a kid. He's 30. This locks him into to around $12M - he's covered for life. If he regresses or gets hurt, he'll be glad he took the insurance of signing now. So I can't blame him. But he definitely looks like he left a bit of money on the table. And he may regret giving up the year of free agency. We shall see.

[TJseven7]

It's so nice to see a mke franchise spend wisely. Good bad or otherwise this is a fantastic contract today. Gm scores another A. It's equally likely that chase shorted himself or we'll regret this at all. It's nice to hope for the best with no true fear of the worst when it comes to spent assets.

 

Initial feeling, thanks Chase. This is a gift.

[monty57]

Look at extensions like insurance. It's a transference of risk from one party to another, and that transference has a cost.

 

Without a contract, the player has all the risk associated with injury and under-performance. By signing the contract, the team takes on that risk. The player "pays" for this risk transference by giving the team a discount to what he projects to make if he goes year-to-year without injury or under-performance. The longer the "insurance period," the greater the discount, which is why I normally don't like offering extensions to players who are already into their arby years - the team generally accepts risk without getting much of a discount. The option years make this deal work, because the team is only assuming partial risk for a player who just had a career year and could regress.

[OnTheBlack]

With Chase signing a team friendly, relatively low cost deal, let the conversations of his trade value and the numerous top 100 prospects we could get begin in 3...2....1

I get the joke, and it did make me chuckle. That being said, there is truth to the fact that his value today is higher than it was yesterday based on this contract. Add this extension to list of the calculated moves made by this front office that are tough not to like.

 

 

And there's also absolutely no guarantee that the Brewers have begun their "competitive stage" quite yet just because they vastly exceeded expectations this year. They succeeded this year without really relying on their young talent for the most part...so they don't really know what they've got in Brinson/Phillips and everyone else other than raw talent, but rather they won with a lot of younger veterans having breakout years.

 

So it's foolish to not consider that this makes him that much more valuable.

 

Love the signing. Pretty surprised with how cheap they were able to get him for. He was almost guaranteed to make 12 million the next two years unless he had some type of catastrophic injury and the other two years are option years. Really hope he can continue to be an effective #2 starter over the next few years though and that there's no reason to shop him around!

 

 

I wonder if the Brewers even approached Nelson about a similar type deal. I know there's uncertainty about his future, but I'd definitely be betting on him right now and this could be a chance to lock him up for the near future for a advantageous deal for the team as well. He doesn't strike me as a guy who's ever gonna take his foot off the pedal regardless of his contract or financial security either.

[coolhandluke121]

With as bad as he was in previous years and theoretically being past his prime age already, I could see why he'd be anxious for financial security when he has the chance even if it means he might have left a lot on the table. Good call for him and the crew. He pretty much sustained his newfound velocity all season, didn't he? Even after coming back from the injury? Yeah, that bodes well for his performance the next 3 years. I think there's more than enough likelihood that this contract will be cheaper than his last 2 arbitration years would have been to make it worthwhile for the Brewers. The last year could be a savings of $10m or more. Very nice.

 

The only downside is we ended up talking about the Nelson injury, which is the most depressing injury for any team I'm a fan of in a long time. (Rodgers isn't quite as bad because I think he will bounce back 100%, whereas there's a really good chance Jimmy will be a shell of himself.)

[clancyphile]

With as bad as he was in previous years and theoretically being past his prime age already, I could see why he'd be anxious for financial security when he has the chance even if it means he might have left a lot on the table. Good call for him and the crew. He pretty much sustained his newfound velocity all season, didn't he? Even after coming back from the injury? Yeah, that bodes well for his performance the next 3 years. I think there's more than enough likelihood that this contract will be cheaper than his last 2 arbitration years would have been to make it worthwhile for the Brewers. The last year could be a savings of $10m or more. Very nice.

 

The only downside is we ended up talking about the Nelson injury, which is the most depressing injury for any team I'm a fan of in a long time. (Rodgers isn't quite as bad because I think he will bounce back 100%, whereas there's a really good chance Jimmy will be a shell of himself.)

 

Anderson will probably be around for three years, and dealt. With the way Burnes, Perrin, and Yamamoto are pitching (especially the track records of Burnes and Perrin), I foresee some significant turnover in the rotation.

[KeithStone53151]

My biggest concern with Anderson is him getting comfortable because he got the financial security and not putting in the work to return to 2017 form. He reportedly busted his butt this offseason and it showed in his velocity uptick...which jumped about 1.5 mph. I think the team options with low buyouts help motivate him to keep at it with the work ethic, but I still have concern. If that velocity fades, he's back to a low-mid 4s era guy versus a low-mid 3s guy.

[adambr2]

My biggest concern with Anderson is him getting comfortable because he got the financial security and not putting in the work to return to 2017 form. He reportedly busted his butt this offseason and it showed in his velocity uptick...which jumped about 1.5 mph. I think the team options with low buyouts help motivate him to keep at it with the work ethic, but I still have concern. If that velocity fades, he's back to a low-mid 4s era guy versus a low-mid 3s guy.

 

If he continues to perform this contract will pay him well over $30M. If he tanks, he may only earn just over $11M.

 

Don't know how motivated he is by team success but I would sure think more than doubling his lifetime earnings should be more than enough reason to continue to try to improve.

[adambr2]

With as bad as he was in previous years and theoretically being past his prime age already, I could see why he'd be anxious for financial security when he has the chance even if it means he might have left a lot on the table. Good call for him and the crew. He pretty much sustained his newfound velocity all season, didn't he? Even after coming back from the injury? Yeah, that bodes well for his performance the next 3 years. I think there's more than enough likelihood that this contract will be cheaper than his last 2 arbitration years would have been to make it worthwhile for the Brewers. The last year could be a savings of $10m or more. Very nice.

 

The only downside is we ended up talking about the Nelson injury, which is the most depressing injury for any team I'm a fan of in a long time. (Rodgers isn't quite as bad because I think he will bounce back 100%, whereas there's a really good chance Jimmy will be a shell of himself.)

 

Anderson will probably be around for three years, and dealt. With the way Burnes, Perrin, and Yamamoto are pitching (especially the track records of Burnes and Perrin), I foresee some significant turnover in the rotation.

 

Those are some mighty odd prospects to group in with Burnes in trying to predict the future Brewer rotation.

 

But seriously, I have a hard enough time trying to imagine who the Brewers will be looking to trade in 1 year much less 3.

[KeithStone53151]

Anderson will probably be around for three years, and dealt. With the way Burnes, Perrin, and Yamamoto are pitching (especially the track records of Burnes and Perrin), I foresee some significant turnover in the rotation.

 

Those are some mighty odd prospects to group in with Burnes in trying to predict the future Brewer rotation.

 

But seriously, I have a hard enough time trying to imagine who the Brewers will be looking to trade in 1 year much less 3.

 

Generally speaking, it seems teams aren't valuing rentals even remotely as much as that 1 year and 2 month of control...for obvious reasons...and excluding the absolute premier players at a position. For example, cubs and chapman. Much more common is the piddling return the dbacks gave up for martinez.

 

I would think as a general rule, Stearns should and will be looking trade guys somewhere between 1 and 2 years of team control left...giving him 3 real chances to trade. Teams generally won't pay an amount assuming more than 2 years of current production levels either...so that's really the sweet spot for maximizing return.

 

And I'll add to Adam's comment about your odd choices of SP to group with Burnes. That would be like commenting how good our future outfield will be with Philips, Brinson, Johnny Davis and Brandon Diaz.

[monty57]

I agree with KeithStone53151.

 

Ideally, we'll keep our farm stocked so we can have replacements ready when our vets have around 1-2 years of control remaining. That would allow us to get good return on the vet while having a good young replacement at the ready. With that in mind, I look at two year extensions as a way we can keep a player for 6-7 years rather than 4-5, while still getting a good return in trade. That should normally give us most of the player's best years, and someone else can pay him for his decline years.

 

Obviously this won't be the case in every instance, but nothing's perfect. The financial risk of a contract like this one to Anderson, the initial Braun deal, or deals like Lucroy's are so much less than the risk of signing a 30-something FA to a market-value, multi-year deal that it's a strategy smaller revenue teams have to utilize.

 

During his time as a Brewer he will be paid less per year than he would if the contract wasn't signed, allowing the Brewers to have additional funds to spend. If he is performing reasonably well and is signed to a reasonable contract, he will be able to be traded when his team control wanes. The downside risk is if he gets injured or underperforms, and that risk is much less on these type of contracts than a free agent contract signed to an aging vet.