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Lance Lynn

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pacopete4 Nashville Sounds

pacopete4

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Yea I really dont understand the Lynn hate on here... Yea his HRs spiked last year.

 

Look at his entire career.

 

But you are looking at his past as if it will be his present or future. His homers spiking last year could be a very good indication as to where he is headed as a pitcher. Not saying that will be 100% of the case but there has been plenty of people on here with data to actually back that up. Do you really want us sinking what is most likely our last remaining free agent dollars into that gamble?

"This is a very simple game. You throw the ball, you catch the ball, you hit the ball. Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose, sometimes it rains." Think about that for a while.
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DR28 First Round Pick

DR28

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Yea I really dont understand the Lynn hate on here... Yea his HRs spiked last year.

 

Look at his entire career.

 

But you are looking at his past as if it will be his present or future. His homers spiking last year could be a very good indication as to where he is headed as a pitcher. Not saying that will be 100% of the case but there has been plenty of people on here with data to actually back that up. Do you really want us sinking what is most likely our last remaining free agent dollars into that gamble?

 

I just dont understand how he goes from allowing 13 HRs to 27 last year? Something DJ can fix?

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pacopete4 Nashville Sounds

pacopete4

Verified Member
Posted
Posted
Yea I really dont understand the Lynn hate on here... Yea his HRs spiked last year.

 

Look at his entire career.

 

But you are looking at his past as if it will be his present or future. His homers spiking last year could be a very good indication as to where he is headed as a pitcher. Not saying that will be 100% of the case but there has been plenty of people on here with data to actually back that up. Do you really want us sinking what is most likely our last remaining free agent dollars into that gamble?

 

I just dont understand how he goes from allowing 13 HRs to 27 last year? Something DJ can fix?

A fastball pitcher who has an injury history lost velocity.

"This is a very simple game. You throw the ball, you catch the ball, you hit the ball. Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose, sometimes it rains." Think about that for a while.
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FVBrewerFan Carolina Mudcats

FVBrewerFan

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Yea I really dont understand the Lynn hate on here... Yea his HRs spiked last year.

 

Look at his entire career.

 

That's how GMs used to think, not anymore. Sounds obvious, but all they care about now is what they can expect to get out of a player the next year, three years, etc. And last season plays into that as much or more than anything else. Then you look at age, do they see an obvious adjustment that can be made, etc.

 

But the days of paying a player for past performance is over.

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badger3034 Prep Ball

badger3034

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I'd be quite content paying Lynn AAV of $13/mil for 2-3 years, maybe a 3rd year player option, based off of the twins reported offer, with a bit of incentives built in to push it to $15/mil AAV if he makes them.
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pacopete4 Nashville Sounds

pacopete4

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A fastball pitcher who has an injury history lost velocity.

 

Injury history? Outside of his TJ 2016 season, he's made at least 30 or more starts every year.

 

You act as having TJ surgery less than two years ago isn’t a big deal. And then you couple that with a drop in velocity and creeping over 30 years of age. Even when you list his ERA’s (which isn’t the greatest metric), do you notice the trend? It’s got worse, by quite a bit, each season.

"This is a very simple game. You throw the ball, you catch the ball, you hit the ball. Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose, sometimes it rains." Think about that for a while.
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istanbultaye College Ball

istanbultaye

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To try to figure out a little bit of his HR uptick, I have been checking out some pitch f/x and other info. By his game logs, it looks like he gave up most of his HR in May/June:

April-4

May-6

June-9

July-2

August-3

September-3

 

His Pitch Fx showed that for April and May, he was throwing his 4 seam around 43% of the time, and his sinker around 35%. Then he started transitioning his pitch selection over the next couple months, and for the last 2 months, he was throwing his 4 seam only about 35% of the time and his sinker over 50% of the time.

 

When we then check his ISO on those pitches, for April-June, his 4 seam ISO was over .240, but after that it dropped to about .120 for July-September. His sinker had an ISO of not much more than .100 on the season as a whole, but it did spike to .212 in June when he was giving up homers right and left, and to .164 in September, when he was potentially wearing down in his first year back.

 

Of course, the interesting counter to the theory that he was wearing down was that his velocity was highest in September. His Pitch F/X velocity readings are only very slightly lower than this 2015 readings, and my understanding of the "higher velocity" readings in MLB was due to MLB switching from Pitch F/X to Statcast, so his Pitch FX readouts shouldn't be impacted by that change, *so I don't know that I buy into him losing a ton of velocity as being the reason for his HR troubles.

 

If we look at his flyball rates by pitch in 2017, it was extremely inflated in May and June against his 4 seam, at 52% and 60%, in months where he was still pitching his 4 seam fastball over 40% of the time.

 

Prior to 2016, he had a tendency to use his 4 seam 50% of the time or more, and his sinker about 30%. For 2017 it seems that he started relying on the sinker more, so it will be interesting to see what he does going forward.

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DR28 First Round Pick

DR28

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A fastball pitcher who has an injury history lost velocity.

 

Injury history? Outside of his TJ 2016 season, he's made at least 30 or more starts every year.

 

You act as having TJ surgery less than two years ago isn’t a big deal. And then you couple that with a drop in velocity and creeping over 30 years of age. Even when you list his ERA’s (which isn’t the greatest metric), do you notice the trend? It’s got worse, by quite a bit, each season.

 

I know it is... But year after TJ he made 33 starts.

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pacopete4 Nashville Sounds

pacopete4

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Posted
Posted

 

Injury history? Outside of his TJ 2016 season, he's made at least 30 or more starts every year.

 

You act as having TJ surgery less than two years ago isn’t a big deal. And then you couple that with a drop in velocity and creeping over 30 years of age. Even when you list his ERA’s (which isn’t the greatest metric), do you notice the trend? It’s got worse, by quite a bit, each season.

 

I know it is... But year after TJ he made 33 starts.

And was a worse pitcher than ever before. Why do we want to shuffle millions to this type of risk?

"This is a very simple game. You throw the ball, you catch the ball, you hit the ball. Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose, sometimes it rains." Think about that for a while.
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istanbultaye College Ball

istanbultaye

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Not saying he's for sure going to be solid going forward, but what I found in regards to his HR being closely tied to May/June extreme flyball rates on his 4-seam fastball that he never had before, and didn't have again the rest of the year has for the most part eased my concerns about his large FIP gap, if the Brewers did in fact end up signing him to a reasonable deal.
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