Lance Lynn

[DR28]

Why does nobody on here want Lynn?

 

He's been very solid pitcher in his career.

[bjkrautk]

Why does nobody on here want Lynn?

 

He's been very solid pitcher in his career.

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=526&position=P

https://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=739&position=P

https://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=633&position=P

 

Cardinals-turned-Brewer Free Agents haven't exactly worked out well in the past decade or so of trying.

[CrewFanBrewMan69]

Why does nobody on here want Lynn?

 

He's been very solid pitcher in his career.

Going to be 31, had TJ lately, stuff was never great, FIP/xFIP in the high 4s last year, velo down from “peak years,” always walked guys at a higherish rate, HR rate exploded last year, he is/was looking for one of those 3/4 year deals for $15-20 mil+ a year, former Cardinal pitcher, gotta give up a pick. Just no thanks.

[DR28]

Cobb is gonna be 31 and had TJ surgery???

[adambr2]

Why does nobody on here want Lynn?

 

He's been very solid pitcher in his career.

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=526&position=P

https://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=739&position=P

https://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=633&position=P

 

Cardinals-turned-Brewer Free Agents haven't exactly worked out well in the past decade or so of trying.

 

Suppan was definitely a bad signing.

 

Hard for me to be disappointed with Lohse. Obviously he lost it the 3rd year but he earned his total salary the first 2 years. Overall that signing turned out pretty neutral.

[DR28]

Why does nobody on here want Lynn?

 

He's been very solid pitcher in his career.

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=526&position=P

https://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=739&position=P

https://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=633&position=P

 

Cardinals-turned-Brewer Free Agents haven't exactly worked out well in the past decade or so of trying.

 

Lynn is much better than all 3.

[adambr2]

Why does nobody on here want Lynn?

 

He's been very solid pitcher in his career.

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=526&position=P

https://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=739&position=P

https://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=633&position=P

 

Cardinals-turned-Brewer Free Agents haven't exactly worked out well in the past decade or so of trying.

 

Lynn is much better than all 3.

 

Actually Lohse had the better career overall than Lynn has had IMO. He was better at his best, just had a couple really bad years early and late that skewed his numbers.

 

Lohse is far ahead in career WAR and value, if you want to argue Lynn is better I can understand I just don't think you can argue he's 'much' better.

[Brewersfanatic2882]

All 3 pitchers wernt that great to begin with. Lohse was pretty good the 2 years before he signed with the Brewers and he had success with the Brewers so I wouln't say that was a bad signing by any stretch. Lynn has been better for a longer period of time and is a very durable starter. Has had a great career so far and I could see him having success with the Brewers if he decides to sign with us.

[JohnBriggs12]

All 3 pitchers wernt that great to begin with. Lohse was pretty good the 2 years before he signed with the Brewers and he had success with the Brewers so I wouln't say that was a bad signing by any stretch. Lynn has been better for a longer period of time and is a very durable starter. Has had a great career so far and I could see him having success with the Brewers if he decides to sign with us.

 

Steve Adams in his MLBTR chat today wasn't very high on Lynn:

 

"Lynn had like a 4.60-4.80 FIP/xFIP/SIERA last year and largely posted the ERA he did because of an elevated strand rate and tiny BABIP. His K/BB numbers tanked last year."

[Brewer Fever]

I'll always be skeptical of pitchers leaving Yadier Molina. I admit looking at no statistics, so I'll readily admit if my perception is wrong. But, is there a single SP whose numbers improved after divorcing that battery?

[CrewFanBrewMan69]

I'll always be skeptical of pitchers leaving Yadier Molina. I admit looking at no statistics, so I'll readily admit if my perception is wrong. But, is there a single SP whose numbers improved after divorcing that battery?

Are their numbers better with him catching them than vs him not catching them when they are on the team? The Yadi makes pitchers great thing is such a load of BS to me. It also seems like the pitchers that leave are hitting the backside of the aging/performance curve and they don’t seem to have a lot of under 30 year old pitchers ever hit FA. I don’t think most of their FA leaving and sucking is because they left precious Yadi, it’s because they got old and/or hurt.

[Boomer5]

Cobb is gonna be 31 and had TJ surgery???

 

Yup. There is also a lot to not like about Cobb. He also had a FIP over 4.

 

I'd take either pitcher but neither is a 1 or 2 at all.

[DR28]

Bowden has us as best fit for Lynn.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Bowden has us as best fit for Lynn.

 

Yuck.

 

I'd personally rather roll with Woodruff and Suter.

[adambr2]

That's really nothing more than Bowden's opinion, though, it doesn't mean we're the most interested.

 

Personally I think Lynn has too many red flags for Stearns to bite unless his asking price really comes down.

[brewmann04]

the years need to be 1-3 at the most

[pacopete4]

Bowden has us as best fit for Lynn.

 

Yuck.

 

I'd personally rather roll with Woodruff and Suter.

 

I'd rather roll with Miley and Gallardo having comeback seasons than to pay Lynn.

[NOMAAM]

That's really nothing more than Bowden's opinion, though, it doesn't mean we're the most interested.

 

Personally I think Lynn has too many red flags for Stearns to bite unless his asking price really comes down.

 

The Twins 2 yr 20 million starting point offer tells me how a lot of teams value him.

[CrewFanBrewMan69]

I don't like Lynn much at all but I'd be open to a 1+1 deal for him. 1/20 guaranteed with a team option for like $15 million in 2019 and a $3-5 million buyout.

 

Similarly I'd like to go the same route with Cobb or Arrieta. Go like 1/25 guaranteed for Cobb and 1/30 guaranteed for Arrieta with the option year being about $15-20 million with $5 million buyout

[Madhawk23]

NO way am I paying $20 mil to Lance Lynn for one season. I might be willing to do that for Arrieta, but not Lynn.

[CrewFanBrewMan69]

NO way am I paying $20 mil to Lance Lynn for one season. I might be willing to do that for Arrieta, but not Lynn.

If it's for 1 year you're going to have to pay a high number but you avoid the long-term commitment. $20-30 million just this year isn't going to kill anything with the team to help stabilize the rotation.

[MrTPlush]

These guys are on the wrong side of 30. They want a payday, not some team friendly 1 year deal.

[bill hAll Star]

NO way am I paying $20 mil to Lance Lynn for one season. I might be willing to do that for Arrieta, but not Lynn.

If it's for 1 year you're going to have to pay a high number but you avoid the long-term commitment. $20-30 million just this year isn't going to kill anything with the team to help stabilize the rotation.

 

Exactly. Unless this is directly affecting Mark's ability to sign players in the next 3 or 4 seasons, I'd imagine that if he's willing to pay $20 million for one year of Lynn, he's making that his one year expense and he'd rather do that over paying for 3-4 years of Cobb or 4-5 of Arrieta at a similar rate.

[brewcrewdue80]

I don't like Lynn much at all but I'd be open to a 1+1 deal for him. 1/20 guaranteed with a team option for like $15 million in 2019 and a $3-5 million buyout.

 

Similarly I'd like to go the same route with Cobb or Arrieta. Go like 1/25 guaranteed for Cobb and 1/30 guaranteed for Arrieta with the option year being about $15-20 million with $5 million buyout

 

How does 2/20 from the Twins turn in to 1/20 guaranteed(so 15-17mil this year) 2019 of 10-15mil? So in the lines of 2/25-32?

 

It's a tough read on your contract since Guaranteed would have to be including the buyout but not the option inclusion.

 

I understand the idea on a 1year deal just on the fact for him he can increase his market for next year. Problem is he costs the team a draft pick. Albeit one that's a 4th rounder. You'd want 2 years out of him to make it a better likelihood you got more from him than likely that draft pick.

 

I have to believe a deal by teams are to remain below 50million but still wanting 3 years and Lynn who declined near 18mil for this season thinks he's worth more than 50 and trying for 4 years.

 

At the right price, there's nothing wrong with signing him, in fact he would immediately become the most durable SP you have on the team capable of 200IP easily. That fact is likely why he is asking for more money since you are getting a return likely of 570IP+ in 3 years. Cobb you could only likely expect 500IP in 3 years.

 

On the Yadier Molina effect. Lynn has 35 games caught by Tony Cruz at 3.77ERA 6 by AJ Pierzynski at 1.35ERA 6 by Eric Fryer? at 4.15 ERA

Molina total is 131 at 3.37 ERA

It's all respectable.

 

He has 2 bad signs after last season that is scaring off so many here. HRs which directly affects his FiP. No other season did he come remotely close to the HRs he gave up last season. Bounce back on his end seems likely and he's 1 year further removed from TJ. But apparently he should be 4+ERA headed south by the comments here.

[DR28]

Yea I really dont understand the Lynn hate on here... Yea his HRs spiked last year.

 

Look at his entire career.