Lance Lynn

[brewcrewdue80]

I realize not to many are of the FA pitcher signing but I think Lynn is a very safe sign. In the Cubs' thread I noted he is seeking a Jordan Zimmerman type contract of 5/110. Based on BWar he's been a 3.4War value avg the last 3 seasons he's pitched.

 

He came back from TJ in 2016 to post a 3.1BWar, but certainly was much higher prior to his final 4 starts in September where he went from 2.94ERA in 29starts, to his 3.43 finish this season at all 33 games started.

 

One would imagine the 2nd season after TJ would allow him to perform a little more like his stats indicate for 14&15 seasons.

 

You could maybe nab this kind of quality starter due to the end to last season and the TJ that we'd never even have a chance otherwise....and I'm guessing we have a 25% chance now, because I wouldn't be surprised he got 5/120 vs a 5/90-100 we'd part with.

 

The payroll as it stands now can afford his 5year contract '18-'22. The tail end I realize the young guns on the team would need their payday, but also by then, Braun's would be gone.

Say you offered him 5/100 and paid him 25 both '18 and '19 on the front-end. Now you more wiggle room down the road, as well as lower cost should you want to trade him. For a 3rd round pick cost, don't see how this isn't a good idea.

I've always felt this guy is under-rated, a Fip his 1st 4 seasons never above 3.49.

 

For once, this is a Cardinal SP who isn't riding a great year after numerous mediocre that we mistakenly sign away. Heck go 4/88 or something. You can afford to front load this deal on a SP that certainly is a high end #3 with #2 prior year stats.

[KCBrewerfan34]

Do you give up your top pick for signing FA's or did they change that practice?

[bill hAll Star]

I am not a huge fan of Lynn, but I agree that we can overpay/overspend now as long as we don't go too crazy 2-3 years from now and we could do worse than Lynn.

 

This discussion of frontloading does bring up an interesting idea that piggybacks on what I've thought.

 

Maybe this isn't something that early 30s pitchers want, but frontloading with an opt out can be beneficial to both parties.

 

We might be able to get an upper end free agent, he can dominate and leave if he wants, and if he becomes a mediocre free agent, then at least he's making less than he might have for the final 3 or so years of his deal.

[JosephC]

I don't doubt that Lance Lynn could get a five year deal, but I think it would be crazy for the Brewers to do that. Numbers indicate his most effective pitch is his fastball, and according to the Pitch Info Pitch Velocity his fastball has dropped from 93.8 (2014) to 93.2 (2015) to 92.6 (2017). He's already in his 30's and had one major elbow injury. He's only pitched in one season since that injury and posted a 4.82 FIP with a decreased strikeout rate, an increased walk rate and a HR/9 number that was nearly double his total in 2015 even though his HR/FB ratio was below league average (it was 14.2%, I think the league average was 14.8% this year but that is the number I'm not completely sure of). Overall he looks a lot better than Jake Odorizzi. But like Odorizzi, almost all of his peripheral numbers scream to stay away.

 

Maybe 3 years, 48 million would be a reasonable figure for the Brewer's organization but there is little doubt a big market team will blow that offer away.

 

I especially hate the idea of an opt-out. How would that be beneficial to the Brewers? He pitches like an ace and then just walks away from the contract after the Brewers took the risk of offering a multi-year deal. Or he pitches as bad as Garza and then the Brewers are stuck with him and are grossly overpaying him for the last 2 or 3 years of the contract. Opt-outs are nothing but win-win for players. The Brewers just don't have the payroll advantages to put themselves in lose/lose situations and that's all an opt-out is.

[JosephC]

Do you give up your top pick for signing FA's or did they change that practice?

 

It's all different now and depends on things like if the team that signed him is paying the luxury tax or is receiving revenue sharing funds. For the big spending teams, the penalties for signing a qualifying offer player is much higher.

 

Basically for the Brewers, if they sign a qualifying offer player they would lose their third highest pick. If they would sign a second player that received a qualifying offer, they would also lose their fourth highest pick.

 

http://m.mlb.com/glossary/transactions/qualifying-offer

[pacopete4]

We have went down this road too many times to expect different results. No, no, and no. Stop trying to find a rotation past 30, especially when we have options on the way. Unless Lynn is coming on a 1 year deal, no thanks.

[Warning Track Power]

I don't want any part of Lance Lynn. While 86 wins is 86 wins, we are still rebuilding and I am fine going into next season with a rotation of Anderson, Davies, Woodruff, Suter/Jungmann/Wilkerson/Guerra until Nelson comes back.

 

I am fine with dealing a non-consequential prospect for a SP (Samardzija-type) in the offseason if we have to take on some salary (Samardzija is making $58.4 over the next three years) but not Lance Lynn if it will cost upwards of $20m per season. If the Giants threw in, $15-$20 million, and all it cost was a C prospect, I much prefer that route.

[brewcrewdue80]

I don't doubt that Lance Lynn could get a five year deal, but I think it would be crazy for the Brewers to do that. Numbers indicate his most effective pitch is his fastball, and according to the Pitch Info Pitch Velocity his fastball has dropped from 93.8 (2014) to 93.2 (2015) to 92.6 (2017). He's already in his 30's and had one major elbow injury. He's only pitched in one season since that injury and posted a 4.82 FIP with a decreased strikeout rate, an increased walk rate and a HR/9 number that was nearly double his total in 2015 even though his HR/FB ratio was below league average (it was 14.2%, I think the league average was 14.8% this year but that is the number I'm not completely sure of). Overall he looks a lot better than Jake Odorizzi. But like Odorizzi, almost all of his peripheral numbers scream to stay away.

 

 

Personally that is pretty good to be that close in his FB the 1st year after that elbow injury. And that's the point. That 4.82 Fip comes with the September finish of 4Starts 14.2IP 20hits 16runs 15ER 10BBs but 14ks 3HRs. He went a full season's of 33 Games Started After the elbow injury out for a year. He wasn't shut down when he very well may have hit arm fatigue at that stage.

 

On the positive, his Hits per 9 were less than career norms. He reduces his HR rate towards the norm he had prior to this post TJ season, one that also seen a strike zone raised that he like Davies maybe needed time to adjust to.

 

Comparing him to Odorizzi is based on this year's peripherals to Odorizzi's career. Unlike the previous seasons Lynn has pitched.

 

See, I'm betting on that he returns a little more to what he was previously but including the improved H/9. That would make that improvement with assuming an arm that won't tire out in September at 170IP but to his 200IP self of past.

 

Lohse, came off a career year. Garza was near a career year prior to his trade. Lynn? A bad year for him the first after TJ.

 

Based on all his seasons previously, he would seem to me to be the most consistent at being quality and while eating innings.

That includes pretty much the numbers he put up in the minors. Ultra consistency. 3+WAR waiting for the taking.

[JohnBriggs12]

I don't want any part of Lance Lynn. While 86 wins is 86 wins, we are still rebuilding and I am fine going into next season with a rotation of Anderson, Davies, Woodruff, Suter/Jungmann/Wilkerson/Guerra until Nelson comes back.

 

I am fine with dealing a non-consequential prospect for a SP (Samardzija-type) in the offseason if we have to take on some salary (Samardzija is making $58.4 over the next three years) but not Lance Lynn if it will cost upwards of $20m per season. If the Giants threw in, $15-$20 million, and all it cost was a C prospect, I much prefer that route.

 

I'm not quite as comfortable with that rotation unless Hader is in the mix. In my mind Guerra is the wild card. If he returns close to his 16 form and I think he could, they'd have a chance at a top four of Anderson, Davies, Hader and Guerra and then leave the 5th spot for Woodruff or another young arm. I'm not that big on Lynn because he'll want at least 4 years and probably 5 and no way should the Brewers go that direction but they could use a vet who'd take a shorter term deal in case Guerra doesn't rebound. If they are patient in FA, somebody usually falls through the cracks.

[superfly]

If you wanted your piece it was Sonny Gray or Quintana. NO MORE older FA starters please, find a controllable young arm via trade/FA or don't even bother.

[reillymcshane]

Lynn is a fine pitcher, and at age 30 (31 in May), he's not that old. He had a nice year in 2017, but there are some red flags. His 4.82 FIP is a worrisome. As is the 27 HRs he gave up. He's always tended to get better results than FIP indicates - but not by 1.39 runs in a year.

 

In the end, it really comes down to years and dollars. 2-3 years - sure, that might be of interest. But I'd be very cautious beyond that. Someone will likely overpay for the guy - I just don't want it to be us.

[adambr2]

We have so many promising young arms -- Hader, Woodruff, Ortiz, Burnes, Peralta, Ponce, Williams, Medeiros, Kirby, etc etc, that we finally have the opportunity to stop pursuing 2nd and 3rd tier arms at market value.

 

I'd prefer internal upgrades to the rotation only, with the exception of a controllable TOR starter becoming available via trade.

 

I also second whoever questioned how an opt-out is ever possibly beneficial to the team. If we front-load a deal with Lynn with an opt-out for the back end years, we either end up paying more on a per-year basis and then lose him when the annual rate finally gets more team friendly, or he fades on the back end like a Lohse, Wolf or Garza, doesn't opt out and we get stuck with a bad contract.. Nothing to like about that from a team perspective either way.

[brewcrewdue80]

It's gotta be a Cardinal thing with the hate.

 

Yes, we have depth in the minors on pitching. And the need wouldn't be so bad for a SP had Nelson not require season ending surgery. And that's just it. We may be fine in depth, but you have Anderson, or Davies go down next season, you're left with such a young inexperienced rotation.

 

Hope for Guerra to return to '16 form. There's another injury riddled Pitcher this season, Anderson missed his share of time this season.

 

Is the answer Alex Cobb? Look, he had a 5.6 Fip in 5 starts, after missing all of 2015. 4.16 this year in 29 starts.

 

Lynn again toughed it out for 33 starts after TJ in '16. Fip is correlating to the HRs he gave up. 13-16HRs the 4 seasons he pitched prior to this season, after the TJ. 27 this year. That screams outlier year to me, as does his Fip. Like stated earlier, he's a model of consistency. I don't chime in too often for a FA signing, but Lynn with the new QO cost is well worth it. Still a 3WAR pitcher this year with those concerns. I just don't get it.

[bill hAll Star]

I also second whoever questioned how an opt-out is ever possibly beneficial to the team. If we front-load a deal with Lynn with an opt-out for the back end years, we either end up paying more on a per-year basis and then lose him when the annual rate finally gets more team friendly, or he fades on the back end like a Lohse, Wolf or Garza, doesn't opt out and we get stuck with a bad contract.. Nothing to like about that from a team perspective either way.

 

Let me explain:

 

1. The Brewers have $50-60 million in theoretical space for 2018 and 2019 and many things could change but let's say we only want to spend $30-40 million on external players or contracts not yet on the team for 2020-2022 given that we may have other needs or extensions to sign. IF the Brewers wanted to sign him for 5/$95 million, wouldn't $25, $25, $15, $15, $15 make more sense simply from a budget standpoint?

 

2. OK, now assume he signs the contract above with an opt-out after year 2. Let's say he dominates. Great! We just signed a dominant or good pitcher for 2 seasons. He walks away at age 33/34. Probably a good thing!

 

3. Say instead he's solid for years 1-2 and is probably going to just be your overpriced #4 starter for the next 3 years. Now you're paying him less when you need the $ and when he's not as important to your team.

 

4. The listed contract is obviously beneficial to Lynn. Again, IF we are interested in signing him, it's just another incentive for us to get a good free agent if we believe him to be that. I'd try this with the upper-tier free agents as well, though I know we wouldn't get many.

 

I don't care what his cost is compared to performance level per season. If we could pay him $60 million this year and $7 million for the 4 seasons following that (I know not possible, but let's just say), I'd do it.

 

It's about money in context of your space available, not "he's earning what he's paid."

 

We can and will overpay some players for the next two years. It's the nature of baseball. The two World Series teams are sitting on tens of overpaid players. Yes, they're large markets, but we can take a few risks as well.

[JohnBriggs12]

I just don't see Lynn as a guy you offer nearly $20 million a year for, regardless of whether the Brewers have the room on their payroll right now. If they are going to spend that kind of money in FA, get a bat and upgrade the offense and defense.

 

If somehow the market isn't there for Lynn, I could live with $15 million a year for 3 years with a vesting option for a 4th. But I wouldn't go beyond that. Same applies for Arietta for that matter. Let someone else overpay. Bats are a different story. They could certainly use another quality bat, maybe one that won't strike out 150-200 times per year.

 

The way to add quality pitching is through trades for guys on reasonable deals, such as Quintana or Gray. Next time that opportunity comes up, don't flinch.

[FVBrewerFan]

The way to add quality pitching is through trades for guys on reasonable deals, such as Quintana or Gray. Next time that opportunity comes up, don't flinch.

 

Exactly! I agree with you, don't flinch and trade away top prospects for short term contracts.

[monty57]

Lynn is getting to the end of his prime, when biology generally says he'll start to fade. Like Briggs said, if the market dries up and we get him for a shorter-term deal, then fine. I would be scared to sign him to a deal that takes him into his mid-30's.

 

I'd prefer any FA signings to be to someone who is entering his prime. Chatwood is an example for this year. He turns 28 in December, would probably be relatively inexpensive after a bit of a down year, and I'd bet his 22% HR rate doesn't sustain when he gets out of Colorado.

[bill hAll Star]

Lynn is getting to the end of his prime, when biology generally says he'll start to fade. Like Briggs said, if the market dries up and we get him for a shorter-term deal, then fine. I would be scared to sign him to a deal that takes him into his mid-30's.

 

I'd prefer any FA signings to be to someone who is entering his prime. Chatwood is an example for this year. He turns 28 in December, would probably be relatively inexpensive after a bit of a down year, and I'd bet his 22% HR rate doesn't sustain when he gets out of Colorado.

 

I'm a fan of Chatwood, but the problem is that it's very, very hard to find an affordable guy that hasn't hit 30 yet.

 

Hosmer is 28, Moustakas is 29, JD Martinez is 30. The last year of one's prime as a position player, I believe, is 31. Pineda is probably the only other somewhat interesting free agent under 30. Those guys will likely all get over $100 million dollars (not Pineda).

 

People will be in on Chatwood for the reasons that are obvious to many and he may end up not being as cheap as we all think.

 

These days, most free agents are north of 30 because a lot of the decent/good ones are locked up earlier for an extra year or two.

 

The Brewers have a bunch of back-end prime guys right now (Shaw, Anderson, Nelson, Thames, Pina is past his but a contributor). Davies and Santana are the only guys that the Brewers have that will still have some prime left when they hit free agency. They've got a bunch of guys coming up that will probably hit their primes in 2 years or so.

 

Point being, the Brewers should just continue to cycle in their new players. They have almost zero significant free agents to worry about keeping for 3, maybe 4 years...and most of them like Shaw are going to be in the same position we see current FAs are on the market are at (32-33 years old).

 

Keep all of your young talent (do not trade for shorter term control unless totally worth it), keep cycling in, and knowingly overpay free agents to fill the gaps. That's what I'd do. It doesn't have to be Lynn, but I think that we can keep cycling a good roster of 20 young players in from our own system and then fill accordingly with past-their-prime, yet still good players.

 

The Brewers can sustain a good roster of 20s/early 30s players from their own system for maybe a decade. For the last few roster spots, if you have $40 million left over every season, would you rather have Lance Lynn or see if Taylor Jungmann can be your 5th starter? I'd take Lynn, and if he begins to struggle 3 years from now, don't hesitate to replace him with Peralta and trade Lynn away for a bag of baseballs and 50% of his final year eaten or make him your mop-up man.

 

Sure, I'd love to get external, productive 27-year-old players to fill areas that we have weaknesses, but...are there any available that don't cost a king's ransom of prospects?

[OnaBadger58]

Lynn is getting to the end of his prime, when biology generally says he'll start to fade. Like Briggs said, if the market dries up and we get him for a shorter-term deal, then fine. I would be scared to sign him to a deal that takes him into his mid-30's.

Especially for a player that throws up to 85% fastball. Once he loses 2-3 mph, he may need to adjust the way he pitches. Once that happens, there is no telling what kind of pitcher he will be. I would be wary of him beyond 2 years.

[jerichoholicninja]

Have we learned nothing from our past free agent pitcher signings?

[KCBrewerfan34]

If we go 5/100 for a starter we better be right. Pass on Lynn. I would take a swing at Arrietta.

[Warning Track Power]

If we go 5/100 for a starter we better be right. Pass on Lynn. I would take a swing at Arrietta.

If the Brewers are dead set on spending significant money on a pitcher, Arrieta would be my choice as well. Not my ideal choice but I like him more than the other options out there.

[nate82]

I don't want to see the Brewers going after anyone who is going to have a pick attached to them. It would be better to just trade for someone like Samardzija or Cueto than sign someone like Lynn and lose that pick.

 

Signing someone like Lynn is just not worth it to lose a pick over.

[Eye Black]

I do not have well researched reasoning for this, but my gut feeling is that Lance Lynn would be a landmine for the Brewers.

[MrTPlush]

Have we learned nothing from our past free agent pitcher signings?

 

Kinda my thought. Not that I will judge someone on that past, but still.