Bring back Jake Odorizzi

[ewitkows]

TB needs to restock and we need another solid pitcher. He had a bit of a down year but still has 2 years of control. I'm sure they'll ask for Brinson , maybe a Brinson/Bickford would get it started?

[sheetskout]

I might deal Phillips. But there's no way they're letting Brinson walk for Odorizzi. They wouldn't let him walk for Sonny Gray.

[jerichoholicninja]

He had a good run of years but was pretty awful last year outside of a hot September. Even his overall career numbers don't scream great, great pitcher to me. I'm pretty much in the not trading anyone unless we're talking long term, cheap, top flight player category though.

[trwi7]

Extreme fly ball pitcher seems like a great fit at Miller Park. BB% jumped 3% this year too. Stay far away.

[JosephC]

I wouldn't dismiss the idea. Every number you look at screams stay away from Odorizzi but he's still only 27 and it wouldn't be crazy to see him bounce back and be a solid middle of the rotation guy. The price tag on him should be reasonable because he is coming off a bad year. I'd guess the Rays would expect to see about 25 million in surplus value headed back their way which would be something like Luis Ortiz/Freddy Peralta OR Corbin Burnes/Trent Clark/fringe prospect. More than I would be willing to go. But if they could be talked down to something like Keon Broxton/Mauricio Dubon/Trey Supak...that would be a deal I would make. Odorizzi had a bad year last year and the peripherals were terrible so I just don't see a bidding war happening for him.

[JohnBriggs12]

He had a good run of years but was pretty awful last year outside of a hot September. Even his overall career numbers don't scream great, great pitcher to me. I'm pretty much in the not trading anyone unless we're talking long term, cheap, top flight player category though.

 

Your definition of awful and mine must be quite different. He allowed 117 hits in 143 1/3 innings and had a solid WHIP of 1.24 and a BAA of .220. Plus you easily dismiss a September where he was lights out in 4 of 5 starts. His 2017 in fact was very similar to Chase Anderson's 2016. Anderson allowed 28 HR in 2016 in 155 innings. Odorizzi allowed 30 in 143 innings in the AL East. Anderson's strong finish in 2016 was a precursor to a breakout 2017.

 

He's not a top of the rotation guy certainly so you don't give up the farm, but is he worth exploring? Certainly. The opportunity is there in 2018 and 2019. With Nelson's situation uncertain, adding a fairly reasonable option without a long term commitment to the mix isn't a bad idea as opposed to a similar type FA who'll want 4-5 years.

[JosephC]

Odorizzi's BABIP number was a ridiculous .227 and that is not likely to repeat itself. Put that at a league average number and the hits/9 and the ERA goes way up. His biggest problem last year was the home run ball, nearly 2 per 9 innings pitched. But his HR/FB ratio was only 15.5% which was just slightly above league average, so the amount of home runs allowed wasn't really a fluke number. His ground ball percentage was 30.6% but it's been under 40% every year in his career. Put all the numbers together and his FIP was 5.43. He does have a history of pitching better than the FIP but over the last three year's his ERA has gone from 3.35 to 3.69 to 4.14. See my previous post on Odorizzi, I'm not opposed to acquiring him if the price is right. But the majority of numbers strongly indicate he's a guy to stay away from.

[clancyphile]

Odorizzi's BABIP number was a ridiculous .227 and that is not likely to repeat itself. Put that at a league average number and the hits/9 and the ERA goes way up. His biggest problem last year was the home run ball, nearly 2 per 9 innings pitched. But his HR/FB ratio was only 15.5% which was just slightly above league average, so the amount of home runs allowed wasn't really a fluke number. His ground ball percentage was 30.6% but it's been under 40% every year in his career. Put all the numbers together and his FIP was 5.43. He does have a history of pitching better than the FIP but over the last three year's his ERA has gone from 3.35 to 3.69 to 4.14. See my previous post on Odorizzi, I'm not opposed to acquiring him if the price is right. But the majority of numbers strongly indicate he's a guy to stay away from.

 

I'd agree.

 

Trading Odorozzi as part of the Greinke deal hurt. But honestly, right now, between Jungmann, Suter, Woodruff, Buddy Derby and Angel Ventura, the Brewers would be reasonably fine after Anderson and Davies. That doesn't include Burnes and Ortiz, who will be ready by September.

 

This is exactly the type of deal the Brewers cannot afford to make.

 

I'd rather roll the dice to get Shohei Otani. With a super-low payroll, the Brewers could make a competitive posting offer, and they do have the example of Brooks Kieschnick as having implemented a two-way player/"Toolshed."

[Warning Track Power]

Odorizzi's BABIP number was a ridiculous .227 and that is not likely to repeat itself. Put that at a league average number and the hits/9 and the ERA goes way up. His biggest problem last year was the home run ball, nearly 2 per 9 innings pitched. But his HR/FB ratio was only 15.5% which was just slightly above league average, so the amount of home runs allowed wasn't really a fluke number. His ground ball percentage was 30.6% but it's been under 40% every year in his career. Put all the numbers together and his FIP was 5.43. He does have a history of pitching better than the FIP but over the last three year's his ERA has gone from 3.35 to 3.69 to 4.14. See my previous post on Odorizzi, I'm not opposed to acquiring him if the price is right. But the majority of numbers strongly indicate he's a guy to stay away from.

While I agree with this post, I wonder if this is the type of player the Brewers could get for Keon Broxton. In a vacuum, an Odorizzi-Broxton deal would maybe make some sense. However, the Rays do not need an OF.

[bill hAll Star]

I had this same opinion during the Sonny Gray and Quintana discussions.

 

The Brewers are probably better off spending $ and letting the farm system play itself out. I get that Odorizzi may truly have diminishing value and may not be much to acquire, but really dealing anything from the farm system for even guys with 2-3 years of control means, "here is our window, let's get what we can get in these next 3 years."

 

I don't know if anyone we have coming due in 3-4 years is worth keeping on a second contract, so continue to spend on external free agents and let the minors system fill everything else for the next decade.

 

We could change course and go all in on 2-3 seasons if it's pretty clear that we've overtaken the division.

[brewcrewdue80]

Just don't see the need to trade team prospects for rentals. We have a number of guys that could be traded who bring something in future depth for them. Broxton, Villar, Thames, Aguilar, the 3 catchers not named Pina. Two FA contracts and two trades and continue on the way. Odorizzi alone doesn't move the needle towards a division champ.

[bensheeps]

Here's the take from draysbay.com

 

https://www.draysbay.com/2017/10/23/16501042/tampa-bay-rays-trade-rumors-jake-odorizzi-miami-marlins-kansas-city-royals

 

The Brewers are the loosest fit among the teams in this piece. The Brewers were surprisingly successful in 2017, winning 86 games and controlling the National League for the first half plus of the season. Back in November, Fangraphs projected the Brewers to win 73 games and come in fourth place.

 

Despite this team success, the Brewers struggled with rotation depth and will need to add a starter or two in the offseason. Jimmy Nelson’s potentially career-altering labrum tear complicates the issue. Josh Hader and Brandon Woodruff are interesting arms, but hardly reliable for stability and innings in the rotation. Getting an arm to stick behind Chase Anderson and Zach Davies could be a priority this offseason.

 

Milwaukee’s lack of willingness to deal prospects was clear when Milwaukee passed on the opportunity to add Sonny Gray or Jose Quintana. Convincing David Stearns to trade quality prospects will be difficult. If the Brewers do want to trade prospects for a pitcher in the offseason, players such as Monte Harrison, Lucas Erceg and Freddy Peralta could be part of discussions, along with Jonathan Villar as a cheap buy-low candidate.

 

I'm ok with the "cheap buy-low candidates", but don't think prospects like those named should be spent on Odorizzi.

 

How about a low cost Jesus Aguilar as someone to bridge the gap to their up-and-coming 1st base prospect?

[bill hAll Star]

How about a low cost Jesus Aguilar as someone to bridge the gap to their up-and-coming 1st base prospect?

 

Talented pitching is extremely coveted in baseball even if damaged goods. If the Rays were close to accepting a spare part from the Brewers, somebody else from around baseball would offer more. The Rays shouldn't just give him away if they're once again in a rebuild/retool mode. I think it would take something closer to what the article mentioned. I'm not sure they would want to give away a guy that's been a good pitcher for a "stopgap" if they aren't planning to compete. Might as well hang on to Odorizzi and see if he can find his groove again and trade him down the line.

 

You do have a decent point in Aguilar, but I think they'd rather have him play DH. He may hold some value there but I just don't think it's enough.

 

I'd be in favor of trading Villar if that was in play.

[clancyphile]

Suppose it was a Keon Broxton-Jesus Aguilar package for Odorozzi and SS Zach Rutherford?

[TURBO]

If the Brewers do want to trade prospects for a pitcher in the offseason, players such as Monte Harrison, Lucas Erceg and Freddy Peralta could be part of discussions, along with Jonathan Villar as a cheap buy-low candidate.[/i]

 

 

No and NO on trading Harrison, Erceg or Peralta. To me those guys are conerstones of the future, unless we are getting a bonified ACE with years of control, I wouldn't even consider moving any of the guys mentioned above. It would have to be an offer that was so lopsidedly in our favor to consider it...

[KeithStone53151]

If the Brewers do want to trade prospects for a pitcher in the offseason, players such as Monte Harrison, Lucas Erceg and Freddy Peralta could be part of discussions, along with Jonathan Villar as a cheap buy-low candidate.[/i]

 

 

No and NO on trading Harrison, Erceg or Peralta. To me those guys are conerstones of the future, unless we are getting a bonified ACE with years of control, I wouldn't even consider moving any of the guys mentioned above. It would have to be an offer that was so lopsidedly in our favor to consider it...

 

The primary reason we shouldn't look at trading any of our higher caliber prospects for anything but a high level pitcher is that we have productive players pretty much everywhere, but you can always use pitching. I'm convinced the Brewers will add a pitcher via trade this off season, and I'm a bit nervous about what the prospect cost is going to be. At the same time, the right pitcher could put us over the top to a division title this year.

[Warning Track Power]

The primary reason we shouldn't look at trading any of our higher caliber prospects for anything but a high level pitcher is that we have productive players pretty much everywhere, but you can always use pitching. I'm convinced the Brewers will add a pitcher via trade this off season, and I'm a bit nervous about what the prospect cost is going to be. At the same time, the right pitcher could put us over the top to a division title this year.

I won't be surprised in the least if that pitcher is Jeff Samardzija and the cost is Keon Broxton.

[clancyphile]

If the Brewers do want to trade prospects for a pitcher in the offseason, players such as Monte Harrison, Lucas Erceg and Freddy Peralta could be part of discussions, along with Jonathan Villar as a cheap buy-low candidate.[/i]

 

 

No and NO on trading Harrison, Erceg or Peralta. To me those guys are conerstones of the future, unless we are getting a bonified ACE with years of control, I wouldn't even consider moving any of the guys mentioned above. It would have to be an offer that was so lopsidedly in our favor to consider it...

 

Freddy Peralta is a hard no - his floor is as a right-handed Hader.

 

Harrison's a soft no, but the yes requires a TOR starter with at least three years of control, and a professional hitter type of prospect.

 

For Erceg, the cost is a TOR starter with at least three years of control.

[Roderick]

I won't be surprised in the least if that pitcher is Jeff Samardzija and the cost is Keon Broxton.

 

mid-season article

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/jeff-samardzijas-oddly-dominant-season/

 

Not sure how he would fare away from the NL West ballparks. So I would want the Giants paying a good chunk of his last year on his $59.4M / 3 years left on his contract.

 

He does get hit nowadays, but led the league in innings pitched last year and has pitched at least 200 innings the last five years. I wonder if he shouldn't throw more crap to players and give up a few more walks, but also less hits to them. He had 32 starts and 32 walks last year.

[KeithStone53151]

No and NO on trading Harrison, Erceg or Peralta. To me those guys are conerstones of the future, unless we are getting a bonified ACE with years of control, I wouldn't even consider moving any of the guys mentioned above. It would have to be an offer that was so lopsidedly in our favor to consider it...

 

Freddy Peralta is a hard no - his floor is as a right-handed Hader.

 

Harrison's a soft no, but the yes requires a TOR starter with at least three years of control, and a professional hitter type of prospect.

 

For Erceg, the cost is a TOR starter with at least three years of control.

 

I think you are dreaming a little bit. Nobody is going to give away a TOR starter for any one of those prospects on their own. What most of us point to is, you don't consider trading premium prospects unless you are getting premium talent. Guys like Brinson/Hader/etc shouldn't even be discussed for a guy like Gray/Quintana. If we are talking Chris Sale or Kershaw, sure we can talk about our premium prospects. But getting one of those 2 guys with say 1-2 years control would likely cost Brinson, Hader, Harrison, and 2 flier prospects. Erceg alone isn't going to bring back even a mid-rotation starter on a 2 month rental.

 

And Peralta doesn't have a floor of Josh Hader. His stuff isn't quite as electric, he's right handed, and might not be as devestating at the mlb level as it appears to be in high a and AA. His floor is probably Jacob Barnes, with a high-upside ceiling at this point. I personally gave him 0 chance of becoming a starter up until he was successful enough to change my mind in August. I still think odds are against him there, but there's a chance.

[KeithStone53151]

I won't be surprised in the least if that pitcher is Jeff Samardzija and the cost is Keon Broxton.

 

mid-season article

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/jeff-samardzijas-oddly-dominant-season/

 

Not sure how he would fare away from the NL West ballparks. So I would want the Giants paying a good chunk of his last year on his $59.4M / 3 years left on his contract.

 

He does get hit nowadays, but led the league in innings pitched last year and has pitched at least 200 innings the last five years. I wonder if he shouldn't throw more crap to players and give up a few more walks, but also less hits to them. He had 32 starts and 32 walks last year.

 

I'd be fine with this trade. He's on a contract year, you know how guys can miraculously have career years on a contract year. It's a 1 year commitment, and he's been very good about eating innings the last 3 years...averaging over 6 ip per start and throwing 200+ innings. The Giants might also be willing to add a mid-level prospect in exchange for dumping the entire salary. I know they really want to get under the luxury tax and don't look like they are going to do that without trading a big salary or two.

[KeithStone53151]

mid-season article

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/jeff-samardzijas-oddly-dominant-season/

 

Not sure how he would fare away from the NL West ballparks. So I would want the Giants paying a good chunk of his last year on his $59.4M / 3 years left on his contract.

 

He does get hit nowadays, but led the league in innings pitched last year and has pitched at least 200 innings the last five years. I wonder if he shouldn't throw more crap to players and give up a few more walks, but also less hits to them. He had 32 starts and 32 walks last year.

 

I'd be fine with this trade. He's on a contract year, you know how guys can miraculously have career years on a contract year. It's a 1 year commitment, and he's been very good about eating innings the last 3 years...averaging over 6 ip per start and throwing 200+ innings. The Giants might also be willing to add a mid-level prospect in exchange for dumping the entire salary. I know they really want to get under the luxury tax and don't look like they are going to do that without trading a big salary or two.

 

I'm not sure what I was looking at. 3 years 60 million. In that case I'm much less interested. I don't think I'm willing to gamble on him being good for 3 years at that price.

[bill hAll Star]

It's going to be a compromise either way. Do you want to knowingly overpay a salary dump (that is still pretty good) like Samardzija or overpay Lynn/Cobb or do you want to trade valuable future prospects for 3 years of a slightly younger/cheaper pitcher?

 

I'd ask the Giants to kick in some $, but that money doesn't really scare me away 100%. I wish it was 2 years and not 3, but this is why I was on the Verlander bandwagon back at the deadline when it was an assumed salary dump. You get probably the same pitcher (well, Verlander brought his 2nd half magic again and is way better) than the overpaid guys on the free agent market, but you get a few less years of commitment.

[OnTheBlack]

Extreme fly ball pitcher seems like a great fit at Miller Park. BB% jumped 3% this year too. Stay far away.

 

Seriously? I've been posting on forums with you for 15 years now....it feels like you're actively trying to become more and more outright sarcastic and condescending.

 

I've asked this before. Do you REALLY find it so daunting to word your response in a way that's not so pretentious? Like maybe....Odorizzi is a extreme FB pitcher, probably not a great fit at Miller Park.

[OnTheBlack]

If the Brewers do want to trade prospects for a pitcher in the offseason, players such as Monte Harrison, Lucas Erceg and Freddy Peralta could be part of discussions, along with Jonathan Villar as a cheap buy-low candidate.[/i]

 

 

No and NO on trading Harrison, Erceg or Peralta. To me those guys are conerstones of the future, unless we are getting a bonified ACE with years of control, I wouldn't even consider moving any of the guys mentioned above. It would have to be an offer that was so lopsidedly in our favor to consider it...

 

Freddy Peralta is a hard no - his floor is as a right-handed Hader.

 

Harrison's a soft no, but the yes requires a TOR starter with at least three years of control, and a professional hitter type of prospect.

 

For Erceg, the cost is a TOR starter with at least three years of control.

 

I hope you're right, but I just do not share your opinion on these guys. Peralta's floor is a guy who never makes it to the big leagues and struggles in AAA. I could list the Zach Braddock and Angel Salome types from recent years who were every big as talented and highly regarded as any of these 3.

 

I like them all, but I just think 3 years of control for a TOR pitcher AND a Daniel Murphy of 3-4 years ago type player for an athletic corner OF'er?

 

I really hope you're right because that would suggest you believe he's got Springer type upside and I think that's the one thing the Brewers are really lacking right now. A star core or at least a couple potential superstars on their way. Not sure how we become a WS contender without our Bryant/Rizzo/-whoever, or Corria, Altuve, Springer trio.