How do we feel about Troy Stokes at this point?

[nate82]

If Stokes was a CF he would get a little bit more praise bit he is not and thus he looks to be a 4th OF at best. He is way behind Harrison and just above Tyrone Taylor on the OF list. I would even put him behind Ray and Demi in terms of prospect status and also behind Clark.

 

Harrison, Clark, and Taylor are better athletes than Stokes and thus they rate higher for me and Demi has Bo Jackson level power potential.

Let me get this straight... Stokes last year at the age of 21 split the season between A+ and AA where he put up just under a .800 OPS and 20 HRs/30 SBs. Orimoloye last year, at the age of 20, put up a .632 OPS and .281 OBP in low A with 11 HRs/38 SBs. Both were 4th round picks, Stokes is 11 months older.

 

But Orimoloye is the better prospect. OK...

 

I already listed why I like Demi over Stokes. Let me repeat this again I like Demi because of his raw power potential over what Stokes has done so far.

 

Just so it is more apparent I bolded underlined and italicized it for you.

[KeithStone53151]

Back to Stokes, he isn't highly rated because his skill set is highly unlikely to play up as well as it is currently. No different than some of the best college football players not translating to the NFL. He's going to have to do like Jason Rogers/Brent Suter and force our hand with his play...whether it be trading him to a team that believes in him or finding playing time due to injury or poor performance.

Why can't Stokes be a Khris Davis with a little less power but faster and better defensively (and a better walk rate and lower K rate)? He was only 21 this past season.

 

40-HR seasons are not likely, but in 2014 Davis put up a 2.1 bWAR season with 22 HRs and a .756 OPS. Davis only once hit 20 HRs in a season in the minors, 22 in low A at Wisconsin at the age of 22 (*probably would have hit 20 if not injured in 2012, but he was also 24 that season). Stokes hit 20 at one and two levels higher and at a year younger.

 

You have to look past the slightly above average numbers and look at his raw tools. Guys with below average tools making it at the mlb level are the exception not the rule. As far as the khris davis comp, stokes doesn't hit like davis did in the minors or have nearly the power potential. The two frankly aren't comparable.

[clancyphile]

Back to Stokes, he isn't highly rated because his skill set is highly unlikely to play up as well as it is currently. No different than some of the best college football players not translating to the NFL. He's going to have to do like Jason Rogers/Brent Suter and force our hand with his play...whether it be trading him to a team that believes in him or finding playing time due to injury or poor performance.

Why can't Stokes be a Khris Davis with a little less power but faster and better defensively (and a better walk rate and lower K rate)? He was only 21 this past season.

 

40-HR seasons are not likely, but in 2014 Davis put up a 2.1 bWAR season with 22 HRs and a .756 OPS. Davis only once hit 20 HRs in a season in the minors, 22 in low A at Wisconsin at the age of 22 (*probably would have hit 20 if not injured in 2012, but he was also 24 that season). Stokes hit 20 at one and two levels higher and at a year younger.

 

In the case of Stokes, 2018 could tell the tale. Best case, he explodes like Garrett Cooper did, and makes things interesting. Worst case, he reverts to the 5th OF ceiling. The OBP skills have been there all along, the speed's been there all along, but the power is new, and not in a High Desert/Colorado Springs environment.

 

If he is for real (and the stat lines suggest he is), things become very intriguing. He does make the notion of dealing Brinson or Santana for help elsewhere on the team a lot less painful. He may be 90% of Brinson offensively, but if a Brinson trade brings in a controllable TOR starter for four years... then the Brewers come out way ahead. Also, while his power numbers would be a slight drop from Santana's, he does offer speed and better defense.

[clancyphile]

You have to look past the slightly above average numbers and look at his raw tools. Guys with below average tools making it at the mlb level are the exception not the rule. As far as the khris davis comp, stokes doesn't hit like davis did in the minors or have nearly the power potential. The two frankly aren't comparable.

 

Demi's got the tools. Meideros has the tools. But they can't translate them into performance out on the field. The raw tools don't do much good if they cannot be applied to get results on the field.

 

Suter may not have the tools of Meideros, but he's clearly been able to translate what he has into a solid contributor to the starting rotation of a major league club. Troy Stokes is clearly able to apply his tools to get results on the field, and in fact, may have improved one of them. Demi is clearly struggling in that regard.

[LouisEly]

You have to look past the slightly above average numbers and look at his raw tools. Guys with below average tools making it at the mlb level are the exception not the rule. As far as the khris davis comp, stokes doesn't hit like davis did in the minors or have nearly the power potential. The two frankly aren't comparable.

Who said he has below-average tools? (Please don't reference pre-draft scouting reports that are now 3.5 years old.)

 

Brian Dozier hit 16 HRs and had a .409 SLG in 1613 minor league plate appearances. What did people say about his tools? He got stronger, made some adjustments, and look at him now. Why can't Stokes do the same thing?

 

You're right in that Stokes and Khris Davis aren't comparable right now - but also remember that Davis was 2-3 years older than Stokes at every level of the minors. Also note that I did say that Stokes is faster and a better defender; you have to take that into consideration in addition to raw power. Stokes will not be a negative-value defender like Davis is.

[OnTheBlack]

How many single player threads do we need?

 

Is this guy just snaking my theme? I posted the other two.

 

 

Please....keep doing so. I like them. What...should there just be a thread labeled "what do we think about prospects?" I like the individiual thoughts on individual players...and I reject the idea he's just organizational depth, but that's beside the point.

[OnTheBlack]

What else, frankly, would the guy post about?

 

With regard to Stokes, I agree that his value as a player should not be affected by the players ahead of him at the same position. I kind of put him in the same category as a Kris Davis or Scooter Gennett. I'm not saying they are similar players at all, just saying they were players that were always doubted for some reason even though they continued to hit pretty much at every level.

 

Maybe Stokes pans out, maybe not. Like others have mentioned he is producing where other, more highly touted, prospects are not. I am a believer that there is far more to evaluating minor league players than just looking at a stat line and I admittedly favor higher ceilings over production from lower ceiling players, but production shouldn't be ignored entirely either.

In the end I'll rank at least a handful of outfielders ahead of Stokes but I wouldn't be surprised to see him have a more productive big league career than a few of them.

 

 

I think that's the thing that ALWAYS stands out when I go back and look at any draft...in any sport really or any prospect list. How many guys that I really thought were gonna be good ended up doing nothing. How the Zack Braddock-Angel Salome combo was going to be so dominant and people would have dismissed Khris Davis and pointed out all the reasons he'd NEVER be one of the top 5 players from the prospects we had at that time(just for example, not trying to line the exact players up perfectly). But even that AA team that had LaPorta and was talked about being the most talented team in the minors, the most prospect laden team in the minors at that time by some. How many impact players did we get out of that? I would suspect not many would have said Luc would easily be the most valuable player 10 years later from that group.

 

Most draft classes, if you get a guy who ends up with 10 career WAR you probably had more productive picks in that round....which is why it always amuses me when people say, "he won't ever get playing time ahead of Phillips and player A, B and C." Phillips looked really good this year for the Brewers....and Mat Gamel looked like he was gonna be a poor mans Braun.

 

 

As for what Garrett Cooper has to do with this thread...it's almost comically ridiculous how hard it seems like some people are trying to make their point(though I almost never know what point that is). He appears to be a fringe major leaguer who I OTHERWISE would root for(like a certain 2nd basemen that the Brewers logically moved on from)...yet now I can't help but wait until they both almost inevitably fail to take enjoyment in it....not that I'll work it into virtually every unrelated thread when they do so.