The Flaws of the Cubs, and can the Brewers avoid similar mistakes?

[bill hAll Star]

I think the Cubs proved this summer with their trades around the deadline that they are certainly all-in on trying to win another WS during this window that they have right now. So, I'd be shocked if they aren't a player these next two winters on the F/A market.

 

The good news for us and other NL Central teams is that they do have two contracts which are albatrosses in Lester and Heyward that aren't going away anytime soon. And as others have pointed out, they have some other key guys on their roster that will start to get more expensive in the next few years.

 

With that said - they should still have plenty of money to throw around with free agents these next two years to improve their team, and I'd be surprised if they don't do that. Especially with their farm system being pretty bare at the moment, which means that they'd have to use MLB depth to trade instead of prospects if they want to improve their team via trades.

 

If they go out and try to re-sign an Arrieta or sign a Darvish, that's another 25+ mil a year that they'll have allocated to one guy, so we're talking about 75+ million eaten up by three players on their roster. Lester isn't getting any younger, Heyward might be the worst contract in baseball, and Arrieta/Darvish probably aren't going to be worth near as much as some team is going to pay them.

 

I think it'll be close as to whether they can add two massive contract guys and hang around the tax threshold. I could see them going over for one or two years if it means they can bring in Bryant's buddy Bryce Harper.

 

Arrieta, Heyward, Lester, Harper about $100 million in 2020. Bryant is probably another $20 in arbitration, Quintana is $10, Rizzo is $15, Hendricks is $15. Baez, Russell, Edwards, Schwarber will probably all be in the $5-7 million range.

 

Hand-wavy, but that's probably about $185 million for 12 players. That means they'd have about $20-25 million for the other 12-13 players if they wanted to stay under the threshold in 2020. They could do it.

 

2019 is similar to the example above. They'll still have Zobrist and Lester makes more (adds up to $20 million extra) but they probably save that in earlier arbitration rates for Bryant, Baez, Hendricks, etc.

 

A lot can and will change. They may shuffle things around a bit, of course. I think if they're real creative they can probably sign 2 more massive contracts and maybe even squeeze in a high priced reliever and make things work.

 

Of course, that example above basically shows you that they'll have no bullpen at that point. They'll probably have to shuffle some things around.

 

Or maybe they'll just pay the tax for a year or two as first time offenders.

[Thurston Fluff]

Can we please stop comparing ourselves to the Cubs? They can strategize differently than we can due to economics of baseball. They don’t need a consistently strong farm system as much as we do. I feel like posters here are trying to make themselves feel better about our lack of success by convincing themselves that our future is brighter. Back in the mid 2000s our future also looked much better and what did we get? Two playoff appearances and one division championship. And why did we get it, by the way? Because we traded the farm for one player on two separate occasions. The Cubs have made the NLCS three consecutive years and won a World Series in the process. I’d be absolutely fine with us using the same strategy if we could, but we can’t which, again, is why I think we should stop comparing ourselves to the Cubs.

 

Totally agree we can't compare ourselves to the Cubs. They could afford to focus on offense and buy the pitching when the farm produced the offense to make it worthwhile. We'll have to rely on the farm system far more than the Cubs did. The question is how do we use the farm? What type of trades do we make and how many prospects is acceptable to lose for any one player? Do we trade our next Prince Fielder with a year left or trade the prospects to keep a Prince Fielder type around a year longer while surrounding him with more veteran talent?

When it comes to how to treat the farm system I have changed my views on trading the farm for Greinke type of talent because of what happened the last time we had a great farm and did that. I want more than two playoff appearances and zero championships before the inevitable rebuild. Seems to me the best way to do that is to stay young and maintain a strong farm system instead of trading them to build a super team for a short window.

[KeithStone53151]

I think the Cubs proved this summer with their trades around the deadline that they are certainly all-in on trying to win another WS during this window that they have right now. So, I'd be shocked if they aren't a player these next two winters on the F/A market.

 

The good news for us and other NL Central teams is that they do have two contracts which are albatrosses in Lester and Heyward that aren't going away anytime soon. And as others have pointed out, they have some other key guys on their roster that will start to get more expensive in the next few years.

 

With that said - they should still have plenty of money to throw around with free agents these next two years to improve their team, and I'd be surprised if they don't do that. Especially with their farm system being pretty bare at the moment, which means that they'd have to use MLB depth to trade instead of prospects if they want to improve their team via trades.

 

If they go out and try to re-sign an Arrieta or sign a Darvish, that's another 25+ mil a year that they'll have allocated to one guy, so we're talking about 75+ million eaten up by three players on their roster. Lester isn't getting any younger, Heyward might be the worst contract in baseball, and Arrieta/Darvish probably aren't going to be worth near as much as some team is going to pay them.

 

I think it'll be close as to whether they can add two massive contract guys and hang around the tax threshold. I could see them going over for one or two years if it means they can bring in Bryant's buddy Bryce Harper.

 

Arrieta, Heyward, Lester, Harper about $100 million in 2020. Bryant is probably another $20 in arbitration, Quintana is $10, Rizzo is $15, Hendricks is $15. Baez, Russell, Edwards, Schwarber will probably all be in the $5-7 million range.

 

Hand-wavy, but that's probably about $185 million for 12 players. That means they'd have about $20-25 million for the other 12-13 players if they wanted to stay under the threshold in 2020. They could do it.

 

2019 is similar to the example above. They'll still have Zobrist and Lester makes more (adds up to $20 million extra) but they probably save that in earlier arbitration rates for Bryant, Baez, Hendricks, etc.

 

A lot can and will change. They may shuffle things around a bit, of course. I think if they're real creative they can probably sign 2 more massive contracts and maybe even squeeze in a high priced reliever and make things work.

 

Of course, that example above basically shows you that they'll have no bullpen at that point. They'll probably have to shuffle some things around.

 

Or maybe they'll just pay the tax for a year or two as first time offenders.

 

As you pointed out, they'll have next to no bullpen, are short 2 starters, and the other 3 starters will likely be back of the rotation starters at best at this point. Your exercise vey clearly illustrates how difficult a situation they will be in very very soon, and that's with you underestimating the cost on Harper.

[brewcrewdue80]

 

Arrieta, Heyward, Lester, Harper about $100 million in 2020. Bryant is probably another $20 in arbitration, Quintana is $10, Rizzo is $15, Hendricks is $15. Baez, Russell, Edwards, Schwarber will probably all be in the $5-7 million range.

 

Hand-wavy, but that's probably about $185 million for 12 players. That means they'd have about $20-25 million for the other 12-13 players if they wanted to stay under the threshold in 2020. They could do it.

 

2019 is similar to the example above. They'll still have Zobrist and Lester makes more (adds up to $20 million extra) but they probably save that in earlier arbitration rates for Bryant, Baez, Hendricks, etc.

 

A lot can and will change. They may shuffle things around a bit, of course. I think if they're real creative they can probably sign 2 more massive contracts and maybe even squeeze in a high priced reliever and make things work.

 

Of course, that example above basically shows you that they'll have no bullpen at that point. They'll probably have to shuffle some things around.

 

Or maybe they'll just pay the tax for a year or two as first time offenders.

 

BRef shows Quintana at 11.5, Rizzo at 16.5. Arrieta I'm guessing will approach 25-28mil. Harper 37-43mil a year. 41 for Heyward/Lester. Hendriks who has Cy Young potential stats, could be close at 15, but I'd think he's closer to 17mil if not 18mil because of yearly inflation on arb. David Price was worth 14mil at that stage what will be 6years earlier and for a poor team vs Luxury team. That would be 28/26/40/41/17 roughly or 152mil vs the 100mil you are guessing.

 

You may think I'm over-reaching on Arrieta, but Lynn is seeking a 5/110 type deal as Jordan Zimmerman got. Never gotten a cy-young top 10 vote whereas Arrieta has a win and two top 10s 3straight years prior to this year.

 

Bryant at 20, may actually be a touch high but pretty close.

 

Considering how they did in '16 with Chapman and the dominance faced by Dodgers bullpen, I'd likely flip Arrieta for a Bullpen stud like Davis. Or in reality they aren't signing Harper. Just can't fit that contract...which likely is a 9-12 year deal because of age. Talking a 400+ commitment over next decade. A weakened system, with garbage draft picks/lost picks with signing QO types. They can't sustain the holes that will be and has already been created by age. They need to sign contracts they can move when needed, vs albatrosses that they are stuck with.

[bill hAll Star]

 

Arrieta, Heyward, Lester, Harper about $100 million in 2020. Bryant is probably another $20 in arbitration, Quintana is $10, Rizzo is $15, Hendricks is $15. Baez, Russell, Edwards, Schwarber will probably all be in the $5-7 million range.

 

Hand-wavy, but that's probably about $185 million for 12 players. That means they'd have about $20-25 million for the other 12-13 players if they wanted to stay under the threshold in 2020. They could do it.

 

2019 is similar to the example above. They'll still have Zobrist and Lester makes more (adds up to $20 million extra) but they probably save that in earlier arbitration rates for Bryant, Baez, Hendricks, etc.

 

A lot can and will change. They may shuffle things around a bit, of course. I think if they're real creative they can probably sign 2 more massive contracts and maybe even squeeze in a high priced reliever and make things work.

 

Of course, that example above basically shows you that they'll have no bullpen at that point. They'll probably have to shuffle some things around.

 

Or maybe they'll just pay the tax for a year or two as first time offenders.

 

BRef shows Quintana at 11.5, Rizzo at 16.5. Arrieta I'm guessing will approach 25-28mil. Harper 37-43mil a year. 41 for Heyward/Lester. Hendriks who has Cy Young potential stats, could be close at 15, but I'd think he's closer to 17mil if not 18mil because of yearly inflation on arb. David Price was worth 14mil at that stage what will be 6years earlier and for a poor team vs Luxury team. That would be 28/26/40/41/17 roughly or 152mil vs the 100mil you are guessing.

 

You may think I'm over-reaching on Arrieta, but Lynn is seeking a 5/110 type deal as Jordan Zimmerman got. Never gotten a cy-young top 10 vote whereas Arrieta has a win and two top 10s 3straight years prior to this year.

 

Bryant at 20, may actually be a touch high but pretty close.

 

Considering how they did in '16 with Chapman and the dominance faced by Dodgers bullpen, I'd likely flip Arrieta for a Bullpen stud like Davis. Or in reality they aren't signing Harper. Just can't fit that contract...which likely is a 9-12 year deal because of age. Talking a 400+ commitment over next decade. A weakened system, with garbage draft picks/lost picks with signing QO types. They can't sustain the holes that will be and has already been created by age. They need to sign contracts they can move when needed, vs albatrosses that they are stuck with.

 

Remember, these are early contract values, though. I imagine Harper starting at $30 and ending at $40/year. Maybe I'm undershooting that a bit, but they could backload their two big deals to make it work during the Heyward years.

 

Yeah, and it's possible that somebody goes insanely high for Harper like maybe the Phillies.

 

I think Arrieta goes 6/$175 and starts in the high 20s and ends in the mid 30s per year.

 

You're probably right, though on Harper and also it's possible that the Cubs should use all of that money to overpay bullpen help.

 

Might have been a bit off on Quintana/Rizzo, but that's pretty negligible in the projection.

[KeithStone53151]

 

BRef shows Quintana at 11.5, Rizzo at 16.5. Arrieta I'm guessing will approach 25-28mil. Harper 37-43mil a year. 41 for Heyward/Lester. Hendriks who has Cy Young potential stats, could be close at 15, but I'd think he's closer to 17mil if not 18mil because of yearly inflation on arb. David Price was worth 14mil at that stage what will be 6years earlier and for a poor team vs Luxury team. That would be 28/26/40/41/17 roughly or 152mil vs the 100mil you are guessing.

 

You may think I'm over-reaching on Arrieta, but Lynn is seeking a 5/110 type deal as Jordan Zimmerman got. Never gotten a cy-young top 10 vote whereas Arrieta has a win and two top 10s 3straight years prior to this year.

 

Bryant at 20, may actually be a touch high but pretty close.

 

Considering how they did in '16 with Chapman and the dominance faced by Dodgers bullpen, I'd likely flip Arrieta for a Bullpen stud like Davis. Or in reality they aren't signing Harper. Just can't fit that contract...which likely is a 9-12 year deal because of age. Talking a 400+ commitment over next decade. A weakened system, with garbage draft picks/lost picks with signing QO types. They can't sustain the holes that will be and has already been created by age. They need to sign contracts they can move when needed, vs albatrosses that they are stuck with.

 

Remember, these are early contract values, though. I imagine Harper starting at $30 and ending at $40/year. Maybe I'm undershooting that a bit, but they could backload their two big deals to make it work during the Heyward years.

 

Yeah, and it's possible that somebody goes insanely high for Harper like maybe the Phillies.

 

I think Arrieta goes 6/$175 and starts in the high 20s and ends in the mid 30s per year.

 

You're probably right, though on Harper and also it's possible that the Cubs should use all of that money to overpay bullpen help.

 

Might have been a bit off on Quintana/Rizzo, but that's pretty negligible in the projection.

 

I'll again note that Harper isn't going to take a backloaded deal. He's going to want cash up front with opt outs. With the type of money he's going to command, he will surely have full authority to basically write out the contract however he chooses.

 

I also don't think Lynn or Arrieta get the type of money you are referencing. The Zimmerman contract is awful. Awful contracts shouldn't be used as comps. Lynn will likely shoot for inflated Matt Garza money, 4/64 type of deal. Arrieta probably gets 4/80, maybe 4/90. I highly doubt anyone goes 5 years for a guy that will be 32 before opening day.

[bill hAll Star]

 

BRef shows Quintana at 11.5, Rizzo at 16.5. Arrieta I'm guessing will approach 25-28mil. Harper 37-43mil a year. 41 for Heyward/Lester. Hendriks who has Cy Young potential stats, could be close at 15, but I'd think he's closer to 17mil if not 18mil because of yearly inflation on arb. David Price was worth 14mil at that stage what will be 6years earlier and for a poor team vs Luxury team. That would be 28/26/40/41/17 roughly or 152mil vs the 100mil you are guessing.

 

You may think I'm over-reaching on Arrieta, but Lynn is seeking a 5/110 type deal as Jordan Zimmerman got. Never gotten a cy-young top 10 vote whereas Arrieta has a win and two top 10s 3straight years prior to this year.

 

Bryant at 20, may actually be a touch high but pretty close.

 

Considering how they did in '16 with Chapman and the dominance faced by Dodgers bullpen, I'd likely flip Arrieta for a Bullpen stud like Davis. Or in reality they aren't signing Harper. Just can't fit that contract...which likely is a 9-12 year deal because of age. Talking a 400+ commitment over next decade. A weakened system, with garbage draft picks/lost picks with signing QO types. They can't sustain the holes that will be and has already been created by age. They need to sign contracts they can move when needed, vs albatrosses that they are stuck with.

 

Remember, these are early contract values, though. I imagine Harper starting at $30 and ending at $40/year. Maybe I'm undershooting that a bit, but they could backload their two big deals to make it work during the Heyward years.

 

Yeah, and it's possible that somebody goes insanely high for Harper like maybe the Phillies.

 

I think Arrieta goes 6/$175 and starts in the high 20s and ends in the mid 30s per year.

 

You're probably right, though on Harper and also it's possible that the Cubs should use all of that money to overpay bullpen help.

 

Might have been a bit off on Quintana/Rizzo, but that's pretty negligible in the projection.

 

I'll again note that Harper isn't going to take a backloaded deal. He's going to want cash up front with opt outs. With the type of money he's going to command, he will surely have full authority to basically write out the contract however he chooses.

 

I also don't think Lynn or Arrieta get the type of money you are referencing. The Zimmerman contract is awful. Awful contracts shouldn't be used as comps. Lynn will likely shoot for inflated Matt Garza money, 4/64 type of deal. Arrieta probably gets 4/80, maybe 4/90. I highly doubt anyone goes 5 years for a guy that will be 32 before opening day.

 

In that case, it still works for the Cubs. Heyward ($20), Lester ($20), Harper ($40-45), Arrieta ($20). That goes back to my $185 for 12 players leaving them about $20 million to fill out the roster. Maybe they pay the tax for two seasons to try to fill out a competent bullpen.

 

Harper has an opt-out around the end of the Bryant/Rizzo years and the Cubs rebuild if all 3 leave.

 

I get the sentiment that Harper can write whatever contract he wants and that if I could get $450 million or $425 million, $25 million is a lot of money...but it may also come to the point where he is the type of guy that will take a backloaded deal to try to win with the team he signs with. Given that he probably wants an opt-out so that he can go elsewhere to a winner if the Cubs (or Yankees or Phillies) begin to falter, maybe you're right, though. Obviously I'm taking more money up-front if I want an opt-out.

 

What about Manny Machado for a little bit less money? Trade Russell for a back-end, controllable starter or good relief pitcher.

 

I'm not saying I'm certain the Cubs will do it...but if they get creative, they may be able to build a top heavy roster if they so choose to go all out for the next 3-4 seasons.

 

Or maybe they sign Darvish or Arrieta this offseason and sign another high-priced pitcher next offseason.

[monty57]

In that case, it still works for the Cubs. Heyward ($20), Lester ($20), Harper ($40-45), Arrieta ($20). That goes back to my $185 for 12 players leaving them about $20 million to fill out the roster. Maybe they pay the tax for two seasons to try to fill out a competent bullpen.

 

The luxury tax level is $197M in 2018, so probably around $200M in 2019 when Harper will be a free agent. That would put the high level teams will really try to stay under at around $240M (where they get an additional 42.5% penalty and drop 10 draft spots). I look at that level almost like a hard salary cap, as few teams are going to want to pay that price.

 

If they're willing to go up to the $240M level, they might be able to do it. Their problem will be that they will have almost no pre-arby guys. If you are trying to fill 13 spots for $15-20M, you really need a lot of pre-arby guys. Even at $55M (going up to the $240M level) it isn't easy to pay 13 guys with no pre-arby guys, as that's an average of around $4.2M a person, and even players in arby can make more than that.

 

That's the good thing about the Cubs having traded away all of their farm in order to hold off the Brewers this year. Having to fill out your roster with guys you can afford off the scrap heap offsets the benefit of having some expensive stars on your roster. That was my biggest gripe with how Melvin ran payroll.

[brewcrewdue80]

 

BRef shows Quintana at 11.5, Rizzo at 16.5. Arrieta I'm guessing will approach 25-28mil. Harper 37-43mil a year. 41 for Heyward/Lester. Hendriks who has Cy Young potential stats, could be close at 15, but I'd think he's closer to 17mil if not 18mil because of yearly inflation on arb. David Price was worth 14mil at that stage what will be 6years earlier and for a poor team vs Luxury team. That would be 28/26/40/41/17 roughly or 152mil vs the 100mil you are guessing.

 

You may think I'm over-reaching on Arrieta, but Lynn is seeking a 5/110 type deal as Jordan Zimmerman got. Never gotten a cy-young top 10 vote whereas Arrieta has a win and two top 10s 3straight years prior to this year.

 

Bryant at 20, may actually be a touch high but pretty close.

 

Considering how they did in '16 with Chapman and the dominance faced by Dodgers bullpen, I'd likely flip Arrieta for a Bullpen stud like Davis. Or in reality they aren't signing Harper. Just can't fit that contract...which likely is a 9-12 year deal because of age. Talking a 400+ commitment over next decade. A weakened system, with garbage draft picks/lost picks with signing QO types. They can't sustain the holes that will be and has already been created by age. They need to sign contracts they can move when needed, vs albatrosses that they are stuck with.

 

Remember, these are early contract values, though. I imagine Harper starting at $30 and ending at $40/year. Maybe I'm undershooting that a bit, but they could backload their two big deals to make it work during the Heyward years.

 

Yeah, and it's possible that somebody goes insanely high for Harper like maybe the Phillies.

 

I think Arrieta goes 6/$175 and starts in the high 20s and ends in the mid 30s per year.

 

You're probably right, though on Harper and also it's possible that the Cubs should use all of that money to overpay bullpen help.

 

Might have been a bit off on Quintana/Rizzo, but that's pretty negligible in the projection.

 

I'll again note that Harper isn't going to take a backloaded deal. He's going to want cash up front with opt outs. With the type of money he's going to command, he will surely have full authority to basically write out the contract however he chooses.

 

I also don't think Lynn or Arrieta get the type of money you are referencing. The Zimmerman contract is awful. Awful contracts shouldn't be used as comps. Lynn will likely shoot for inflated Matt Garza money, 4/64 type of deal. Arrieta probably gets 4/80, maybe 4/90. I highly doubt anyone goes 5 years for a guy that will be 32 before opening day.

 

No, I don't think Lynn's asking price is wrong. He's been a 3.4 BWAR SP the avg the last 3 seasons he pitched including this year's after TJ. if 1WAR is worth 7mil, He's staring at 23.8mil a year. Something that is higher than 5/110.

 

Arrieta is a 14BWar the last 3 years (4.66) and 19.7BWar (4.93) when you go to 4years. You're looking at over 30mil near 35mil per year on that value.

 

Lackey at 37/38 went for 16mil per. 32 for Arrieta isn't going to tax him over 30% of the value he's produced the last 4seasons.

[monty57]

From MLBtraderumors:

 

Cubs president of baseball operations Theo Epstein recently spoke about the team’s 2018 rotation and acknowledged a need, writes CSN Chicago’s Patrick Mooney. Epstein characterized left-hander Mike Montgomery as someone who will likely stretch out as a starter in Spring Training but “probably start the year in the bullpen” barring spring injuries. “And then at the end of the regular season, when you look up, he’ll have somewhere between 10 and 20 starts. And you’ll say: ‘Wow, Mike Montgomery was really valuable this year,'” said Epstein. As for splurging on the free-agent market, Epstein was non-committal when discussing a pursuit of Yu Darvish or a reunion with Jake Arrieta. “…I wouldn’t rule it out completely, and I wouldn’t rule it in,” said Epstein of pursuing a high-priced free-agent pitcher. “I would just say it’s not our preferred method.”

 

So they're going to need two starters from somewhere, and "it's not their preferred method" to go after Darvish or Arrieta. Darn, I was hoping they'd sign a long-term, high-priced deal to one of the 32-year-olds.

 

I can't see them having enough trade chips (that they're willing to trade away) to land someone like Archer. If they end up getting two middle-of-the-rotation guys, they will (on paper) be less talented next year than they were this year, especially if they don't re-sign Davis or if they have to trade away Happ or Baez to get one of the starters.

[bill hAll Star]

They might be best off going with buy-low cheaper pitching (I trust Epstein to find talent a bit more than others), pay for relievers, and let their defense do the talking for the time being. Either way, there is an opening for the Brewers.

[bill hAll Star]

The luxury tax level is $197M in 2018, so probably around $200M in 2019

 

It's supposed to be $206M in 2019, fwiw. I'm not sure if that has to be finalized or something but that's the figure that I see everywhere I look.

 

To your other point about them not having many good pre-arby players if they really chose to go out and sign 2 more huge contracts, the 2010-2017 Tigers are probably a good example of stars and scrubs.

 

They found a few diamonds in the rough and had a few prospects coming up, but in general they had 12-13 pre-arby guys and probably 8-10 of them were replacement level or worse most years. It worked for a while but there were down years for sure.

[KeithStone53151]

From MLBtraderumors:

 

Cubs president of baseball operations Theo Epstein recently spoke about the team’s 2018 rotation and acknowledged a need, writes CSN Chicago’s Patrick Mooney. Epstein characterized left-hander Mike Montgomery as someone who will likely stretch out as a starter in Spring Training but “probably start the year in the bullpen” barring spring injuries. “And then at the end of the regular season, when you look up, he’ll have somewhere between 10 and 20 starts. And you’ll say: ‘Wow, Mike Montgomery was really valuable this year,'” said Epstein. As for splurging on the free-agent market, Epstein was non-committal when discussing a pursuit of Yu Darvish or a reunion with Jake Arrieta. “…I wouldn’t rule it out completely, and I wouldn’t rule it in,” said Epstein of pursuing a high-priced free-agent pitcher. “I would just say it’s not our preferred method.”

 

So they're going to need two starters from somewhere, and "it's not their preferred method" to go after Darvish or Arrieta. Darn, I was hoping they'd sign a long-term, high-priced deal to one of the 32-year-olds.

 

I can't see them having enough trade chips (that they're willing to trade away) to land someone like Archer. If they end up getting two middle-of-the-rotation guys, they will (on paper) be less talented next year than they were this year, especially if they don't re-sign Davis or if they have to trade away Happ or Baez to get one of the starters.

 

Epstein is a nob. What is he going to round out his rotation with? Hopes and dreams? I suspect he'll try to utilize MLB talent to acquire a SP and sign a veteran bounceback candidate for the 5th spot. I also suspect he's going to run into a road block when he grossly overvalues guys like baez/Schwarber/happ and doesn't get far in discussions.

[Warning Track Power]

From MLBtraderumors:

 

Cubs president of baseball operations Theo Epstein recently spoke about the team’s 2018 rotation and acknowledged a need, writes CSN Chicago’s Patrick Mooney. Epstein characterized left-hander Mike Montgomery as someone who will likely stretch out as a starter in Spring Training but “probably start the year in the bullpen” barring spring injuries. “And then at the end of the regular season, when you look up, he’ll have somewhere between 10 and 20 starts. And you’ll say: ‘Wow, Mike Montgomery was really valuable this year,'” said Epstein. As for splurging on the free-agent market, Epstein was non-committal when discussing a pursuit of Yu Darvish or a reunion with Jake Arrieta. “…I wouldn’t rule it out completely, and I wouldn’t rule it in,” said Epstein of pursuing a high-priced free-agent pitcher. “I would just say it’s not our preferred method.”

 

So they're going to need two starters from somewhere, and "it's not their preferred method" to go after Darvish or Arrieta. Darn, I was hoping they'd sign a long-term, high-priced deal to one of the 32-year-olds.

 

I can't see them having enough trade chips (that they're willing to trade away) to land someone like Archer. If they end up getting two middle-of-the-rotation guys, they will (on paper) be less talented next year than they were this year, especially if they don't re-sign Davis or if they have to trade away Happ or Baez to get one of the starters.

 

I think you have the pieces here but not the right name. I think the Cubs move Schwarber to an AL team for that pitcher. Yankees-Cubs match up too well to not have a deal for Schwarber and I wouldn't be too terribly surprised if the Yankees offered Gray for him. Happ/Jay-Heyward-Almora in the OF, Happ/Zobrist at 2B with Gray, Lester, Hendricks as the top 3. Not necessarily dominant but fills the role.

[LouisEly]

Two NLCS appearances, one championship...I wish the Brewers were so "flawed."

Don't forget, playoffs three seasons in a row. Yeah, I wish the Brewers were so "flawed".

 

I'm struggling to think of a team that has made the World Series recently that didn't make a big acquisition for prospects or dip heavily into free agency for someone who was instrumental in getting there. 2017 - Dodgers (big time free agency), Astros (Verlander); 2016 - Cubs (Chapman, Montgomery), Indians (Miller); 2015 - Royals (Cueto, Zobrist), Mets (Cespedes, smaller deals for Reed, Uribe, Clippard to fill holes)

 

The reality appears to be that you have to go out and get additional pieces to put you over the top, and to do so you either have to spend big time in free agency (not a likely path for the Brewers) or give up some prospects.

[reillymcshane]

I'm struggling to think of a team that has made the World Series recently that didn't make a big acquisition for prospects or dip heavily into free agency for someone who was instrumental in getting there. 2017 - Dodgers (big time free agency), Astros (Verlander); 2016 - Cubs (Chapman, Montgomery), Indians (Miller); 2015 - Royals (Cueto, Zobrist), Mets (Cespedes, smaller deals for Reed, Uribe, Clippard to fill holes)

Don't forget that the Dodgers got Darvish this year.

 

However, there are many teams that made big splashes that didn't get them to the World Series. Dodgers paid big for Rich Hill and Josh Reddick in 2016. Boston signed David Price in 2016, Dbacks got Greinke that same year. Gray didn't get the Yankees to WS this year. Quintana didn't get the Cubs over the top. You get the idea.

 

Teams in contention rarely don't make deals. I think the big thing is that it's important to strike when you think you are ready. You maintain your financial flexibility, have a good pool of prospects to trade - and when the time is right, you move. To me, the biggest mistake is making a big, big move that doesn't transform the team into a great - or near great - team.

[coolhandluke121]

The Cubs are a lot like the Brewers in the Braun/Fielder era, except with more money. Bryant and Rizzo are better versions of Braun and Fielder, and they have other hitters who probably compare favorably to guys like Weeks, Hart, Hardy, etc but who probably won't be really good every year. Contreras could be their Lucroy. Heyward and Zobrist are like Mike Cameron and an aging Aramis Ramirez. But they hardly have any home-grown pitching talent, and they're going to keep piecing together rotations from aging free agents whose WAR in the 2nd half of their contracts all but cancels out what they gave in the first half. Quintana is their Gallardo, a guy who can probably count on to be a solid #2 for several seasons, but everything else is a huge gamble. They're going to have their share of Suppans (Lackey?), Lohses (Lester?), and Marcums (Hendricks?) before it's all said and done. They're probably going to overpay to trade for a pitcher at some point but it will only accelerate their decline in the long run, like the Brewers did with Greinke and Sabathia. Pitching is nearly half the game, and we all know how mediocre the Brewers were for most of Mark A's first decade despite having young cohort of hitters that may be rivaled only by the Cubs and Dodgers in this century.

[bill hAll Star]

From MLBtraderumors:

 

Cubs president of baseball operations Theo Epstein recently spoke about the team’s 2018 rotation and acknowledged a need, writes CSN Chicago’s Patrick Mooney. Epstein characterized left-hander Mike Montgomery as someone who will likely stretch out as a starter in Spring Training but “probably start the year in the bullpen” barring spring injuries. “And then at the end of the regular season, when you look up, he’ll have somewhere between 10 and 20 starts. And you’ll say: ‘Wow, Mike Montgomery was really valuable this year,'” said Epstein. As for splurging on the free-agent market, Epstein was non-committal when discussing a pursuit of Yu Darvish or a reunion with Jake Arrieta. “…I wouldn’t rule it out completely, and I wouldn’t rule it in,” said Epstein of pursuing a high-priced free-agent pitcher. “I would just say it’s not our preferred method.”

 

So they're going to need two starters from somewhere, and "it's not their preferred method" to go after Darvish or Arrieta. Darn, I was hoping they'd sign a long-term, high-priced deal to one of the 32-year-olds.

 

I can't see them having enough trade chips (that they're willing to trade away) to land someone like Archer. If they end up getting two middle-of-the-rotation guys, they will (on paper) be less talented next year than they were this year, especially if they don't re-sign Davis or if they have to trade away Happ or Baez to get one of the starters.

 

I think you have the pieces here but not the right name. I think the Cubs move Schwarber to an AL team for that pitcher. Yankees-Cubs match up too well to not have a deal for Schwarber and I wouldn't be too terribly surprised if the Yankees offered Gray for him. Happ/Jay-Heyward-Almora in the OF, Happ/Zobrist at 2B with Gray, Lester, Hendricks as the top 3. Not necessarily dominant but fills the role.

 

I don't think Schwarber is enough for Gray.

 

Also, the Yankees probably know that they're signing Harper or maybe Machado. DH may be more of a rotation for them given that they're going to be overflowing with good MLB bats over the next few years.

[monty57]

I agree that Schwarber will be shopped, but I think his value is significantly less than Broxton. He might bring back a MLB pitcher on a bad contract, or some lower level minor leaguers, but he's not bringing back someone like Gray. If his value is higher than I think, then Stearns is going to have a heyday trading Aguilar and Broxton.

[adambr2]

I agree that Schwarber will be shopped, but I think his value is significantly less than Broxton. He might bring back a MLB pitcher on a bad contract, or some lower level minor leaguers, but he's not bringing back someone like Gray. If his value is higher than I think, then Stearns is going to have a heyday trading Aguilar and Broxton.

 

I don't get why Schwarber has any major value at all. He wasn't an elite prospect, he can't hit a lick, is so-so at getting on base, can't steal a bag and can't play defense. He's got one tool, some pop.

 

I don't understand reports that the Cubs traded Torres over Schwarber for Chapman, if true. And I agree if Schwarber is worth anything at all, Broxton should be too.

[bill hAll Star]

I agree that Schwarber will be shopped, but I think his value is significantly less than Broxton. He might bring back a MLB pitcher on a bad contract, or some lower level minor leaguers, but he's not bringing back someone like Gray. If his value is higher than I think, then Stearns is going to have a heyday trading Aguilar and Broxton.

 

I don't get why Schwarber has any major value at all. He wasn't an elite prospect, he can't hit a lick, is so-so at getting on base, can't steal a bag and can't play defense. He's got one tool, some pop.

 

I don't understand reports that the Cubs traded Torres over Schwarber for Chapman, if true. And I agree if Schwarber is worth anything at all, Broxton should be too.

 

Schwarber was the #4 pick overall in the draft and a top 20 prospect per baseball America (lower in the rankings on other publications).

 

It's possible that Schwarber is basically an Oswaldo Arcia clone and he's basically out of baseball in 5 years, or maybe his .900 OPS with 17 homers in the 2nd half and promising rookie campaign tell us what he can do. He had bad BABIP luck to open the year last year.

 

If you could get a left-handed DH that can put up a .250/.370 line with 40-45 HR...isn't that more valuable than Broxton and probably Aguilar? Aguilar is on the wrong side of the platoon and 3 years older...and does not have the HR power or on-base ability of Schwarber if Schwarber is right.

[OnaBadger58]

I agree that Schwarber will be shopped, but I think his value is significantly less than Broxton. He might bring back a MLB pitcher on a bad contract, or some lower level minor leaguers, but he's not bringing back someone like Gray. If his value is higher than I think, then Stearns is going to have a heyday trading Aguilar and Broxton.

 

I don't get why Schwarber has any major value at all. He wasn't an elite prospect, he can't hit a lick, is so-so at getting on base, can't steal a bag and can't play defense. He's got one tool, some pop.

 

I don't understand reports that the Cubs traded Torres over Schwarber for Chapman, if true. And I agree if Schwarber is worth anything at all, Broxton should be too.

 

If you could get a left-handed DH that can put up a .250/.370 line with 40-45 HR...isn't that more valuable than Broxton and probably Aguilar? Aguilar is on the wrong side of the platoon and 3 years older...and does not have the HR power or on-base ability of Schwarber if Schwarber is right.

 

Not much more valuable than a .250/.350 line with 25HR/25 SB's that isn't a huge liability on defense.

[monty57]

If you could get a left-handed DH that can put up a .250/.370 line with 40-45 HR...isn't that more valuable than Broxton and probably Aguilar? Aguilar is on the wrong side of the platoon and 3 years older...and does not have the HR power or on-base ability of Schwarber if Schwarber is right.

 

Really depends on what you're looking for and how you project each player. Schwarber could reach the line you stated, and Broxton could hit .250/.340 with 30 HR and 30 SB while playing good defense at all three OF positions allowing a team to rotate their OF/DH to keep everyone fresh. Or, either one could end with a career average around .200. If Schwarber only hits around .200 then he's basically a Chris Carter type, and we saw how much value teams give those players these days. If Broxton only hits around .200, then at least he can add some value on defense and the basepaths.

 

I think that either of these players will have to prove themselves some more before anyone will give up good value for them. Schwarber may get a little more right now because he was higher rated as a prospect and hit a World Series HR that people remember, but I don't think he has nearly the value he had two years ago. Plus, his market is limited to the AL, because he is horrible on defense.

 

But all it takes is one GM who loves the potential and either of these guys could bring back more than I expect.

[Fear The Chorizo]

The problem with the Cubs and Schwarber is that both Happ and Almora should be everyday outfielders, and they aren't getting away from Heyward's contract anytime soon - that leaves Schwarber without everyday at bats because you can't play him defensively anywhere but LF.

 

He's the prototypical Cub fanboy's player-god...had alot of ballyhoo when flying up through the minors because his bat was advanced for the leagues he was tearing up, ended up getting called up during some interleague series where he could DH and hit well enough for people to think he was the second coming. Then, he blows out a knee too early the next season for pitchers to figure out his weaknesses - comes back and hits well in the world series, where he can again be a DH most of the games. Fans are over the moon about him at this point, yet he only had about 2 solid months of MLB at bats. Then 2017 happens and reality probably sets in for a guy with power but definite holes in his swing that pitchers attack.

 

To me, he's a left-handed hitting Matt LaPorta moreso than Babe Ruth's second coming.

[brewmann04]

maddon feeling the heat making coaching changes